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BC

Boston College 16 at SMU 25

SMU
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:16 · (05:20) #43 W.McSparron punt 39 yards to the BC01
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:41: (01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep left to #23 E.Dickens caught at SMU18, for 43 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook) — BC win probability +2.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:05: (10:04) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 4 yards gain to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05 #97 B.Baird kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett) — SMU win probability +1.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:25: (7:25) Shotgun JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to PITTMAN JR., Randy to the BC0, 1ST DOWN, TOUCHDOWN SMU, clock 07:25 (Scoring play confirmed). — SMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:37: (04:43) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #0 D.McFall caught at BC06, for 20 yards to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #0 D.McFall rush attempt failed — SMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:07: (02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #86 D.Edgehille caught at SMU00, for 6 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #10 M.McKenzie pass attempt failed — BC win probability +2.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:33BC 4th & 2 at BC 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:43BC 4th & 10 at SMU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:08BC 4th & 15 at BC 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16SMU 4th & 7 at BC 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:19BC 4th & 8 at BC 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41SMU 4th & 25 at SMU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01BC 4th & 10 at SMU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:33BC 4th & 6 at BC 44, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:09BC 4th & 1 at SMU 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−3.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−11.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:52SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 47, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:17BC 4th & 11 at BC 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:33SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:41BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:37SMU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:07BC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1993% → 93%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.9%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #0 D.McFall caught at SMU20, for 12 yards to the SMU37 (#2 K.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#0 T.Green) 15 yards from SMU37 to BC48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
92.8%
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at BC38, for 10 yards to the BC38 (#2 K.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
92.8%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush middle for 0 yards to the BC38 (#88 C.McGee)Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
92.7%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at BC40, for 1 yard loss to the BC39 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+5
92.6%
PENALTY BC Offside (#83 J.Griffin) 5 yards from BC39 to BC34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+23
92.5%
(13:06) No Huddle #0 D.McFall rush left for 23 yards gain to the BC11 (#3 M.Tucker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
92.5%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BC12 (#88 C.McGee)Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+10
92.4%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BC02 (#2 K.Price). The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BC01 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
92.5%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:33, 1ST DOWN #43 W.McSparron rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:448% → 9%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.3%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BC33 (#1 J.Lee)Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
92.1%
(10:59) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC36, for 6 yards to the BC39 (#1 J.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.0%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC41 (#16 M.White)Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
91.9%
(09:56) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #23 E.Dickens caught at BC36, for 7 yards to the BC48 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
91.6%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BC47 fumbled by #24 B.MacCormack III at BC46 forced by #1 J.Lee recovered by BC #24 B.MacCormack III at BC47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+4
91.7%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 4 yards gain to the SMU49 (#1 J.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
91.4%
(08:05) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 15 yards gain to the SMU34 (#10 T.Polley Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
91.2%
(07:23) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SMU43 (#58 A.Washington), fumble by #10 M.McKenzie recovered by BC #71 K.Phillips at SMU43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 19
OPP 43
0
91.5%
(06:40) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #24 B.MacCormack III thrown to SMU40 QB hurried by #5 M.Alcorn-CrowderSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 19
OPP 43
+9
91.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #4 J.Green caught at SMU45, for 9 yards to the SMU34 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
90.9%
(05:43) #99 L.Lombardo field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook), clock 05:43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3991% → 90%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
90.8%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 3 yards loss to the SMU22 (#0 T.Green)Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
90.6%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right to #3 Y.Smith thrown to SMU20Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
90.4%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right thrown to SMU35 QB hurried by #13 D.BallardSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
90.3%
(04:55) #43 W.McSparron punt 43 yards to the BC35 fair catch by #32 M.Landolfi at BC35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:139% → 12%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.6%
(04:56) PENALTY BC False Start (#55 R.Smith IV) 5 yards from BC35 to BC30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-5
90.7%
(04:55) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #23 E.Dickens caught at BC25, for 5 yards loss to the BC25 (#4 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+18
90.5%
(04:15) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC40, for 18 yards to the BC43 (#0 W.Nettles)Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
90.0%
(03:34) Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BC46 (#16 M.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
90.2%
(02:55) Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush right for 1 yard gain to the BC47 (#1 J.Lee)Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
89.9%
(02:22) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Green thrown to SMU42 QB hurried by #58 A.WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+10
90.0%
(02:13) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #4 J.Green caught at SMU48, for 10 yards to the SMU43 (#15 L.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
87.6%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep left to #23 E.Dickens caught at SMU18, for 43 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
21 plays · 83 yds · 6:1988% → 89%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
88.1%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #2 J.Hale caught at SMU21, for 8 yards to the SMU25 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
88.2%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush right for 1 yard gain to the SMU26 (#90 K.Sampson)Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
87.7%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SMU29 (#0 T.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
87.6%
(00:04) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at SMU42, for 13 yards to the SMU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
88.1%
PENALTY SMU False Start (#77 A.Woods) 5 yards from SMU42 to SMU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
87.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush right for 10 yards gain to the SMU47 (#41 F.Bate; #55 C.Hudson)Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
87.9%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at BC48, for 5 yards to the BC48 (#14 A.Cunningham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
87.9%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 1 yard gain to the BC47 (#55 C.Hudson)Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
87.7%
(13:36) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 5 yards gain to the BC42 (#8 O.Nwosisi)Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
87.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush left for 6 yards gain to the BC36, out of bounds at BC36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
87.2%
(12:16) #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #18 T.Melin Öhrström thrown to BC17 broken up by #5 M.Upton PENALTY BC Holding (#2 K.Price) 10 yards from BC36 to BC26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
87.6%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush right for 2 yards loss to the BC28 (#28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+4
87.2%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at BC22, for 4 yards to the BC24 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
86.6%
(11:02) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short middle to #8 Y.Knight thrown to BC15Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+15
86.0%
(10:49) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Hale thrown to BC08 broken up by #32 C.Comella, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BC Pass Interference (#38 T.Cusick) 15 yards from BC24 to BC09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.0%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short middle to #3 Y.Smith thrown to BC00Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
87.0%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BC04 (#5 M.Upton)Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.5%
(10:04) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 4 yards gain to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05 #97 B.Baird kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:4112% → 12%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.0%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BC35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
87.6%
(09:26) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 2 yards loss to the BC33 (#58 A.Washington)Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-2
87.8%
(08:43) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #3 D.Pough caught at BC29, for 2 yards loss to the BC31 (#15 L.Spencer)Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-1
88.2%
(08:03) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BC30 (#16 M.White)Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+4
88.3%
(07:17) #96 B.LaFollette punt 35 yards to the SMU35 #8 Y.Knight return 4 yards to the SMU39 (#23 M.Mankaka), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4788% → 87%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
87.5%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #10 J.Cooper caught at SMU45, for 8 yards to the SMU47 (#32 C.Comella), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
87.9%
(06:37) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #5 R.Pittman Jr. caught at SMU43, for 10 yards to the BC43 (#42 K.Dixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.9%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.Cooper thrown to BC20Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
87.8%
(06:09) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 3 yards gain to the BC40 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
87.5%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short middle to #5 R.Pittman Jr. thrown to BC35Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
86.7%
(05:20) #43 W.McSparron punt 39 yards to the BC01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5113% → 12%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
87.3%
(05:12) Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC03 (#1 J.Lee; #23 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
87.2%
(04:30) Shotgun #9 L.Wright pass incomplete short middle to #4 J.Green thrown to BC20Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
87.5%
(04:25) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete deep right to #4 J.Green thrown to BC38Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
87.9%
(04:22) #96 B.LaFollette punt 34 yards to the BC37, out of bounds at BC37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:2687% → 85%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
87.3%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #2 J.Hale caught at BC39, for 1 yard loss to the BC38 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-14
87.0%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings sacked for loss of 14 yards to the SMU48 (#42 K.Dixon)Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 25
OWN 48
0
85.2%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right thrown to BC37 QB hurried by #55 C.HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 25
OWN 48
0
84.8%
(02:50) #43 W.McSparron punt 52 yards to the BC00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3014% → 14%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
85.9%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 40 yards gain to the SMU40 (#21 J.Wyrick), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
83.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 1 yard loss to the SMU41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-4
85.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 4 yards to the SMU45 (#32 J.Anderson)Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+5
86.1%
(01:16) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #16 N.Boldin Jr. caught at BC49, for 5 yards to the SMU40 (#28 B.Booker; #10 T.Polley Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
86.1%
(01:07) #96 B.LaFollette punt 31 yards to the SMU09 fair catch by #8 Y.Knight at SMU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5285% → 83%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
84.8%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush middle for 20 yards gain to the SMU29 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Cooper thrown to SMU35Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
84.8%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush right for 3 yards loss to the SMU26 (#42 K.Dixon)Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
83.3%
(00:04) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 0 yards to the SMU26 (#55 C.Hudson; #42 K.Dixon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FUMBLE
15 plays · 22 yds · 6:5117% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
PENALTY BC Delay Of Game (#53 T.Humphrey) 5 yards from BC25 to BC20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
83.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC13, for 2 yards to the BC22 (#21 J.Wyrick; #15 L.Spencer)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
83.4%
(14:22) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #3 D.Pough caught at BC31, for 14 yards to the BC36 (#15 L.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.2%
(13:33) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #23 E.Dickens thrown to BC30Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.3%
(13:33) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 3 yards gain to the BC39 (#10 T.Polley Jr.)Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+5
82.0%
PENALTY BC False Start (#52 J.Pruitt) 5 yards from BC39 to BC34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+14
82.9%
(12:36) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BC48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
80.0%
(11:54) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 8 yards gain to the SMU44 (#23 A.Kilgore) PENALTY BC Holding (#52 J.Pruitt) 10 yards from BC48 to BC38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-7
81.3%
(11:32) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BC31 (#16 M.White)Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 27
OWN 31
+11
81.6%
(10:49) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #24 B.MacCormack III caught at BC28, for 11 yards to the BC42 (#10 T.Polley Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+23
81.2%
(10:11) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep middle to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at SMU35, for 23 yards to the SMU35 QB hurried by #52 J.Lang (#8 M.Barnes Jr.), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SMU Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
77.6%
(09:42) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 2 yards loss to the SMU37 (#23 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-4
78.4%
(09:04) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #4 J.Green caught at SMU41, for 4 yards loss to the SMU41 (#5 M.Alcorn-Crowder; #1 J.Lee)Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+34
79.6%
(08:20) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 12 yards to the BC47 (#16 M.White), fumble by #10 M.McKenzie recovered by SMU #58 A.Washington at BC47 #58 A.Washington return 34 yards to the BC13 (#24 B.MacCormack III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3284% → 90%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
83.9%
(08:05) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #5 R.Pittman Jr. caught at BC15, for 1 yard loss to the BC14 (#42 K.Dixon; #8 O.Nwosisi)Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
83.8%
(07:43) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 0 yards to the BC14 (#14 A.Cunningham), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
89.7%
(7:25) Shotgun JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to PITTMAN JR., Randy to the BC0, 1ST DOWN, TOUCHDOWN SMU, clock 07:25 (Scoring play confirmed).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4511% → 11%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.9%
(07:25) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 15 yards gain to the BC40 (#10 T.Polley Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.1%
PENALTY BC False Start 5 yards from BC40 to BC35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
88.8%
(06:29) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 10 yards gain to the BC45 (#21 J.Wyrick)Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-3
87.6%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 3 yards loss to the BC42 (#52 J.Lang)Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+2
88.8%
(05:20) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 2 yards gain to the BC44 (#16 M.White; #22 S.Reyes)Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
89.5%
(04:35) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #23 M.Mankaka thrown to BC42, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -40 yds · 2:4391% → 88%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.5%
(04:30) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 0 yards to the BC44 (#1 A.Palano; #18 K.Howard) PENALTY SMU Holding (#5 R.Pittman Jr.) 10 yards from BC44 to SMU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+1
89.9%
(04:10) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 1 yard gain to the SMU47 (#19 M.Townsend)Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+10
89.8%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #3 Y.Smith caught at BC35, for 22 yards to the BC31 (#19 M.Townsend), out of bounds PENALTY SMU Holding (#5 R.Pittman Jr.) 10 yards from SMU47 to SMU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 29
OWN 37
+10
89.7%
(03:01) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right thrown to SMU41 QB hurried by #41 F.Bate PENALTY SMU Holding (#77 A.Woods) 10 yards from SMU37 to SMU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 39
OWN 27
-9
89.4%
(02:56) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SMU18 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 48
OWN 18
-2
88.6%
(02:26) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 2 yards loss to the SMU16 (#13 D.Ballard; #90 K.Sampson)Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 50
OWN 16
+10
88.1%
(01:55) #43 W.McSparron punt 50 yards to the BC34 #32 C.Comella return 10 yards to the BC44 (#29 B.Miyazono)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:3812% → 12%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
87.9%
PENALTY BC False Start (#71 K.Phillips) 5 yards from BC44 to BC39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
88.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #48 Z.Moore thrown to BC43 broken up by #4 J.ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+6
88.8%
(01:38) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #4 J.Green caught at BC45, for 6 yards to the BC45 (#1 J.Lee)Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+16
88.5%
(01:00) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #4 J.Green caught at SMU50, for 16 yards to the SMU39 (#32 J.Anderson; #22 S.Reyes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
86.9%
(00:25) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SMU34 (#22 S.Reyes)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
85.6%
(14:58) Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SMU31 (#94 J.Jefferson; #52 J.Lang)Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+14
86.6%
(14:18) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Green thrown to SMU15 PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (#4 J.Thomas) 14 yards from SMU31 to SMU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
85.4%
(14:09) Shotgun #9 L.Wright rush left for 8 yards gain to the SMU09 (#23 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
85.3%
(13:37) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 1 yard gain to the SMU08 (#58 A.Washington)Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
86.6%
(12:52) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 0 yards to the SMU08 (#6 T.Atkinson; #23 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
88.4%
(12:11) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #87 C.Kossmann thrown to SMU05, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1090% → 91%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
89.6%
(12:04) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush right for 0 yards to the SMU08 (#18 K.Howard)Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+14
89.2%
(11:39) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #10 J.Cooper caught at SMU13, for 14 yards to the SMU22 (#2 K.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.4%
(10:57) Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 2 yards gain to the SMU24 (#14 A.Cunningham), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
89.2%
(10:44) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at SMU30, for 9 yards to the SMU33 (#1 A.Palano; #5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.0%
(10:00) Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SMU35 (#41 F.Bate)Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
90.3%
(09:16) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #10 J.Cooper caught at SMU45, for 9 yards to the SMU44 fumbled by #10 J.Cooper at SMU45 forced by #2 K.Price recovered by SMU #10 J.Cooper at SMU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.1%
(08:46) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right thrown to BC45 QB hurried by #41 F.BateSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
91.9%
(08:37) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 3 yards gain to the SMU47 (#32 C.Comella; #5 M.Upton)Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
91.5%
(08:08) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete deep right to #0 D.McFall thrown to BC18 broken up by #28 Z.ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
91.1%
(07:51) #43 W.McSparron punt 44 yards to the BC09 fair catch by #32 C.Comella at BC09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:287% → 6%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
92.6%
(07:52) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 0 yards to the BC09 (#16 M.White)Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-1
92.8%
(07:13) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BC08 (#32 J.Anderson; #97 C.Davis)Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
93.4%
(06:27) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete deep middle to #3 D.Pough thrown to BC32 QB hurried by #32 J.Anderson PENALTY BC Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 11
OWN 8
+24
94.0%
(06:26) #96 B.LaFollette punt 47 yards to the SMU45 #8 Y.Knight return 34 yards to the BC21 (#41 F.Bate; #48 Z.Moore) PENALTY SMU Holding (#11 C.Brown) 10 yards from BC31 to BC41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:2394% → 98%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
94.3%
(06:11) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #8 Y.Knight caught at BC45, for 12 yards to the BC29 (#13 D.Ballard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.7%
(05:29) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #0 D.McFall caught at BC34, for 1 yard to the BC28 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-7
94.7%
(04:51) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 7 yards loss to the BC35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+15
94.3%
(04:48) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short middle to #18 T.Melin Öhrström thrown to BC19 PENALTY BC Roughing The Passer (#13 D.Ballard) 15 yards from BC35 to BC20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.2%
(04:43) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #0 D.McFall caught at BC06, for 20 yards to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #0 D.McFall rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:222% → 5%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
(04:35) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BC34 (#23 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
97.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #86 D.Edgehille thrown to BC39Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.5%
(04:07) Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC36 (#6 T.Atkinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.6%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Montague Jr. thrown to BC46Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.6%
(03:46) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #48 Z.Moore thrown to BC47Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
97.8%
(03:42) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #16 N.Boldin Jr. caught at SMU49, for 15 yards to the SMU49 QB hurried by #58 A.Washington (#1 J.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
97.5%
(03:10) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #16 N.Boldin Jr. thrown to SMU33 broken up by #21 J.Wyrick PENALTY SMU Roughing The Passer (#58 A.Washington) 15 yards from SMU49 to SMU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
97.1%
(03:03) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #86 D.Edgehille caught at SMU15, for 20 yards to the SMU14 (#28 B.Booker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
97.1%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #1 J.Skeete caught at SMU13, for 8 yards to the SMU06 (#8 M.Barnes Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
95.0%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #86 D.Edgehille caught at SMU00, for 6 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #10 M.McKenzie pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21END OF HALF
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3097% → 99%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
96.7%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BC43 (#42 K.Dixon)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
98.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #10 J.Cooper caught at BC45, for 2 yards loss to the BC45 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+16
98.4%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #10 J.Cooper caught at BC33, for 16 yards to the BC29 (#32 C.Comella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
98.6%
(01:14) Kneel down by #7 K.Jennings at BC31 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-1
98.6%
(00:32) Kneel down by #7 K.Jennings at BC32 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:25
(7:25) Shotgun JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to PITTMAN JR., Randy to the BC0, 1ST DOWN, TOUCHDOWN SMU, clock 07:25 (Scoring play confirmed).
+5.9
TD · Q4 4:37
(04:43) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #0 D.McFall caught at BC06, for 20 yards to the BC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #0 D.McFall rush attempt failed
+3.9
TD · Q1 1:41
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep left to #23 E.Dickens caught at SMU18, for 43 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook)
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com