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W&M

William & Mary 7 at Duke 62

DUKE
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:52 · (11:02) #94 C.Boyd punt 43 yards to the DUKE32 #35 A.Pellicciotta return 39 yards to the WM29 (#9 T.Gordon)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+43.6Home team on offense+5.2Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:03: (06:08) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 19 yards gain to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:03, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:58: (03:01) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #31 J.Reuter caught at DUKE06, for 6 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:58 #43 M.Lipinski kick attempt good (H: #16 P.Blee, LS: #50 M.Kabban) — W&M win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 10:42: (10:48) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep middle to #7 K.Simmons caught at WM05, for 29 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:42, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:58: (08:03) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep left to #4 J.Solomon caught at WM09, for 29 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:58, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:26: (00:32) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #17 J.Richardson caught at WM05, for 28 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:26, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5W&M made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 9:39W&M 4th & 7 at W&M 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 26, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41W&M 4th & 19 at DUKE 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:20DUKE 4th & 6 at W&M 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:52W&M 4th & 10 at W&M 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21W&M 4th & 15 at W&M 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56W&M 4th & 1 at DUKE 4, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50W&M 4th & 12 at W&M 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:16DUKE 4th & 13 at W&M 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:06W&M 4th & 8 at W&M 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:10W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 29, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:03W&M 4th & 11 at W&M 34, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:25DUKE 4th & 1 at W&M 28, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:50W&M 4th & 3 at W&M 32, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:51DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 37, up 55
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8W&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:42DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:58W&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:42DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:58DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:26DUKE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:40DUKE Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:58DUKE Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:25DUKE Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1299% → 99%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the DUKE24 (#34 C.Higgins)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.3%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE29 (#8 H.Johnson; #4 J.Ratliff)Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #8 J.Moore caught at DUKE34, for 8 yards to the DUKE37 (#13 T.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.3%
(13:16) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUKE38 (#8 H.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
99.3%
(12:43) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #44 N.Kurisky caught at DUKE39, for 6 yards to the DUKE44 (#33 R.Matheny; #8 H.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
99.2%
(12:05) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE47, for 4 yards to the DUKE48 (#34 C.Higgins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
99.2%
(11:33) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #6 J.Burton caught at WM32, for 30 yards to the WM22 (#25 B.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.2%
(10:58) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 22 yards gain (8) to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:50 PENALTY DUKE Holding (#17 J.Richardson) 10 yards from WM14 to WM24Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 12
OPP 24
0
99.2%
(10:51) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Simmons thrown to WM16Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+24
99.2%
(10:48) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #8 J.Moore caught at WM00, for 24 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:42, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Johnson rush left for 3 yards gain to the WM28 (#30 W.Felder Jr.; #35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.1%
(09:59) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short left to #19 L.Vanantwerp thrown to WM31Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.1%
(09:57) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short left to #19 L.Vanantwerp thrown to WM37 broken up by #4 E.SmithSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.1%
(09:51) #94 C.Boyd punt 51 yards to the DUKE21 blocked by #6 L.Griffin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
99.1%
(09:39) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #6 J.Burton caught at DUKE17, for 3 yards loss to the DUKE18 (#33 R.Matheny; #5 C.Ellis)Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+2
99.1%
(08:58) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 2 yards gain to the DUKE20 (#34 C.Higgins; #10 D.Roulley)Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+6
99.0%
(08:21) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at DUKE22, for 6 yards to the DUKE26 (#10 D.Roulley), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
99.0%
(07:48) #41 K.Reynoldson pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Taylor thrown to DUKE25 QB hurried by #40 D.Ta'amai, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q1 7:31
2ND & 22
OPP 38
+3
99.0%
(07:39) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE35 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
99.0%
(06:56) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Miller thrown to DUKE34Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 19
OPP 35
+53
99.0%
(06:52) #43 M.Lipinski field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD blocked by #34 L.Mergott (H: #16 P.Blee, LS: #50 M.Kabban), clock 06:41 recovered by DUKE Duke at DUKE36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:2999% → 99%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
99.0%
(06:41) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at DUKE49, for 26 yards to the WM38 (#4 J.Ratliff), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.0%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at WM41, for 4 yards to the WM34 (#13 T.Cannon; #34 C.Higgins) PENALTY WM Personal Foul (#90 L.Allen) 15 yards from WM34 to WM19, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.2%
(06:08) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 19 yards gain to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:03, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.1%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush right for 4 yards loss to the WM21 (#10 T.Reed)Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+17
99.1%
(05:25) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short middle to #87 S.McElwain caught at WM32, for 17 yards to the WM38 (#10 T.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short left to #11 C.Jenkins thrown to WM34 broken up by #1 K.LoudSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.0%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #5 K.Johnson caught at WM49, for 11 yards to the WM49 (#9 C.Ojarikre) PENALTY WM Holding (#69 L.Clemmons) 10 yards from WM38 to WM28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+3
99.0%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #9 J.Miller caught at WM23, for 3 yards to the WM31 (#30 W.Felder Jr.; #55 J.Columbus)Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+63
99.0%
(03:51) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete deep left to #5 K.Johnson caught at DUKE47, for 63 yards to the DUKE06 (#35 A.Pellicciotta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.7%
(03:01) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #31 J.Reuter caught at DUKE06, for 6 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:58 #43 M.Lipinski kick attempt good (H: #16 P.Blee, LS: #50 M.Kabban)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:3399% → 98%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.7%
(02:56) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the DUKE32 (#8 H.Johnson) PENALTY WM Face Mask (#8 H.Johnson) 15 yards from DUKE32 to DUKE47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
(02:38) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE47 (#8 H.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
98.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at WM48, for 11 yards to the WM42 (#8 H.Johnson; #33 R.Matheny), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
98.7%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 21 yards gain (7) to the WM21 (#10 D.Roulley) PENALTY DUKE Holding (#17 J.Richardson) 10 yards from WM35 to WM45Similar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 13
OPP 45
0
98.6%
(01:14) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #15 J.Taylor thrown to WM25Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+9
98.6%
(01:09) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WM36 (#34 C.Higgins)Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
98.6%
(00:33) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the WM28 (#7 S.Hicks; #90 L.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
98.6%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #15 J.Taylor caught at WM22, for 10 yards to the WM18 (#33 R.Matheny), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
98.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the WM17 (#8 H.Johnson; #33 R.Matheny)Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
98.5%
(14:17) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at WM23, for 3 yards to the WM14 (#96 B.Echols; #10 D.Roulley)Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
98.4%
(13:27) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to WM08 QB hurried by #7 S.HicksSimilar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
98.4%
(13:23) #39 C.Salas field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 13:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:182% → 2%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.5%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short right to #86 J.Blee caught at WM30, for 6 yards to the WM31 (#34 L.Mergott), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.4%
(12:57) PENALTY WM False Start (#66 H.Raley) 5 yards from WM31 to WM26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.4%
(12:34) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #9 J.Miller caught at WM26, for 0 yards to the WM26 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
98.4%
(11:47) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins sacked for loss of 6 yards to the WM20 (#24 B.Gompers)Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
98.4%
(11:11) #94 C.Boyd punt 44 yards to the DUKE36 #35 A.Pellicciotta return 16 yards to the WM48 (#44 K.Reviello; #50 M.Kabban) PENALTY DUKE Running Into The Kicker (#18 K.Smith) 5 yards from WM20 to WM25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+39
98.4%
(11:02) #94 C.Boyd punt 43 yards to the DUKE32 #35 A.Pellicciotta return 39 yards to the WM29 (#9 T.Gordon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.3%
(10:48) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep middle to #7 K.Simmons caught at WM05, for 29 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:42, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
PENALTY WM Delay Of Game 5 yards from WM25 to WM20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
98.8%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush right for 0 yards to the WM20 (#95 P.Watson)Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
98.8%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short middle to #0 K.Austin thrown to WM35 broken up by #35 A.Pellicciotta. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short middle to #0 K.Austin caught at WM35, for 15 yards to the WM35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
98.7%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete deep middle to #0 K.Austin thrown to WM40 QB hurried by #10 T.ReedSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+21
98.7%
(09:31) #94 C.Boyd punt 46 yards to the DUKE34 #35 A.Pellicciotta return 21 yards to the WM45 (#9 T.Gordon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.3%
(09:20) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan rush left for 8 yards gain to the WM37 (#15 M.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+8
99.2%
(08:38) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 8 yards gain to the WM29 (#44 K.Reviello; #34 C.Higgins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.4%
(08:03) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep left to #4 J.Solomon caught at WM09, for 29 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:58, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 12DOWNS
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:551% → 1%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.1%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WM46 (#99 D.Quiñonez)Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
99.1%
(07:30) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DUKE48 (#24 B.Gompers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.1%
(06:53) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE44 (#91 O.Wafle; #40 A.Wasserman)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
99.0%
(06:13) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUKE41 (#0 D.Flowers)Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
99.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE37 (#24 B.Gompers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.2%
(05:16) PENALTY WM False Start (#74 J.Spainhour) 5 yards from DUKE37 to DUKE42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+1
99.3%
(05:01) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUKE41 (#95 P.Watson; #55 J.Columbus)Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+28
99.3%
(04:20) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete deep middle to #5 K.Johnson caught at DUKE17, for 28 yards to the DUKE13 (#8 D.Stone; #0 D.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
99.2%
(03:30) Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 2 yards loss to the DUKE15 (#30 W.Felder Jr.; #44 D.Anderson)Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
99.3%
(02:50) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE15 (#95 P.Watson)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+11
99.3%
(02:08) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #0 K.Austin caught at DUKE04, for 11 yards to the DUKE04 (#35 A.Pellicciotta; #0 D.Flowers), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-1
99.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins rush left for 1 yard loss to the DUKE05 (#34 L.Mergott; #55 J.Columbus), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
99.5%
(01:56) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DUKE11 (#1 D.Dzidzienyo)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+10
99.5%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at DUKE21, for 10 yards to the DUKE21 (#13 T.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.4%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE22, for 8 yards to the DUKE29 (#34 C.Higgins)Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
99.5%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #44 N.Kurisky thrown to DUKE29 broken up by #51 C.HeathSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+36
99.5%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 36 yards gain to the WM35 (#10 D.Roulley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.5%
(00:36) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #15 J.Taylor caught at WM30, for 7 yards to the WM28 (#34 C.Higgins; #44 K.Reviello)Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+28
99.8%
(00:32) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #17 J.Richardson caught at WM05, for 28 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:26, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WM26 (#31 E.Schaper; #44 D.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the WM29 (#8 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.8%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WM28 (#55 J.Columbus; #7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.8%
(13:36) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins sacked for loss of 5 yards to the WM23 (#24 B.Gompers)Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.8%
(12:56) #94 C.Boyd punt 27 yards to the WM50, out of bounds at DUKE50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
50
+31
99.8%
(12:50) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 31 yards gain to the WM19 (#13 T.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
99.8%
(12:20) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WM12 (#44 K.Reviello; #33 R.Matheny)Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
99.8%
(11:37) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short left to #85 J.Hasley thrown to WM00Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+10
99.8%
(11:33) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #6 J.Burton caught at WM00, for 12 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:26 PENALTY DUKE Holding (#56 N.Del Grande) 10 yards from WM12 to WM22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
99.8%
(11:25) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short left thrown to WM20 QB hurried by #34 C.Higgins and #7 S.HicksSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
99.8%
(11:19) #39 C.Salas field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 11:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the WM26 (#31 E.Schaper)Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the WM26 (#31 E.Schaper)Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.8%
(09:58) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short right to #5 K.Johnson caught at WM26, for 1 yard to the WM27 (#1 K.Loud; #34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
(09:14) #94 C.Boyd punt 44 yards to the DUKE29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:24100% → 100%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
99.8%
(09:04) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the DUKE39 (#15 M.Jackson Jr.) PENALTY DUKE Holding (#15 J.Taylor) 10 yards from DUKE29 to DUKE19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+5
99.8%
(08:44) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan rush right for 5 yards gain to the DUKE24 (#44 K.Reviello), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+15
99.8%
(08:03) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete short left to #44 N.Kurisky caught at DUKE26, for 15 yards to the DUKE39 (#44 K.Reviello), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
(07:17) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Solomon thrown to DUKE39 broken up by #44 K.RevielloSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
(07:12) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUKE42 (#4 J.Ratliff)Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
(06:32) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete short left to #4 J.Solomon caught at WM43, for 15 yards to the WM43 (#15 M.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.9%
(05:52) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete short left to #4 J.Solomon caught at WM32, for 11 yards to the WM32 (#15 M.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
(05:09) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WM30 (#34 C.Higgins)Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
(04:30) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WM27 (#34 C.Higgins; #44 K.Reviello)Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
(03:47) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep right to #18 B.Keefe caught at WM00, for 27 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:40, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Zamani, LS: #49 J.Ronilo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Austin thrown to WM30Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
(03:35) Shotgun #16 P.Blee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WM27 (#40 A.Wasserman)Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
(02:54) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short middle to #87 S.McElwain caught at WM29, for 2 yards to the WM29 (#6 L.Griffin III)Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
(02:17) #94 C.Boyd punt 47 yards to the DUKE24, out of bounds at DUKE24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:04100% → 100%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
99.9%
(02:10) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 22 yards gain to the DUKE46 (#4 J.Ratliff; #34 C.Higgins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.9%
(01:25) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush right for 7 yards gain to the WM47 (#34 C.Higgins; #7 S.Hicks)Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
(00:42) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush right for 8 yards gain to the WM39 (#4 J.Ratliff), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WM34 (#7 S.Hicks)Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
99.9%
(14:19) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III pass incomplete short right to #3 B.Rohrer thrown to WM20 QB hurried by #7 S.HicksSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+12
99.9%
(14:15) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III pass complete short middle to #9 K.Conciauro caught at WM24, for 12 yards to the WM22 (#25 B.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.9%
(13:32) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WM16 (#7 S.Hicks)Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
99.9%
(12:48) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III pass incomplete short left to #9 K.Conciauro thrown to WM00 broken up by #25 B.RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+12
99.9%
(12:44) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush left for 12 yards gain to the WM04 (#4 J.Ratliff; #25 B.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
(12:01) Shotgun #22 J.Tanelus rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58 #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Zamani, LS: #52 J.Fitzgerald)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 P.Blee rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WM24 (#11 D.Brown Jr.; #93 S.Onuoha)Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
100.0%
(11:14) Shotgun #10 C.Carroll pass complete short left to #80 L.Oulahi caught at WM30, for 11 yards to the WM35 (#90 T.Rupley; #28 K.Lanier), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
(10:31) Shotgun #10 C.Carroll pass complete short right to #81 G.McIntosh caught at WM40, for 5 yards to the WM40 (#19 J.Morris), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-6
100.0%
(09:59) Shotgun #10 C.Carroll sacked for loss of 6 yards to the WM34 (#50 C.Cannon Jr.)Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(09:13) Shotgun #10 C.Carroll pass incomplete short right to #81 G.McIntosh thrown to WM45 broken up by #43 S.Turner QB hurried by #11 D.Brown Jr.Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(09:08) #94 C.Boyd punt 38 yards to the DUKE28, out of bounds at DUKE28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
(09:02) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUKE31 (#37 T.Kann), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+32
100.0%
(08:22) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III pass complete deep left to #88 P.Kettering caught at WM39, for 32 yards to the WM37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
100.0%
(07:40) Shotgun #26 C.Givers rush right for 6 yards gain to the WM31 (#44 K.Reviello)Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
100.0%
(06:56) Shotgun #13 T.Walker III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WM30 (#40 D.Ta'amai; #51 C.Heath)Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
100.0%
(06:13) Shotgun #26 C.Givers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WM28 (#25 B.Robinson; #37 T.Kann)Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+28
100.0%
(05:31) Shotgun #26 C.Givers rush left for 28 yards gain to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:25, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Zamani, LS: #49 J.Ronilo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 B.Smalls rush right for 1 yard gain to the WM26 (#40 A.Wasserman; #13 O.Umeh)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
(04:40) Shotgun #10 C.Carroll pass incomplete short right to #80 L.Oulahi thrown to WM30 broken up by #13 O.UmehSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
100.0%
(04:38) Shotgun #23 B.Smalls rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WM32 (#33 C.Gatten; #29 B.Winter)Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
(03:53) #94 C.Boyd punt 38 yards to the DUKE30 fair catch by #21 K.Cotton at DUKE30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
(03:50) Shotgun #24 W.Daal rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE34 (#40 D.Ta'amai)Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
(03:05) Shotgun #24 W.Daal rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE36 (#28 J.Worthen)Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+1
100.0%
(02:19) Shotgun #24 W.Daal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE37 (#37 T.Kann; #51 C.Heath)Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
100.0%
(01:59) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 57 yards to the WM06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 25END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
100.0%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 B.Smalls rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WM09 (#50 C.Cannon Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
(01:04) Shotgun #23 B.Smalls rush right for 1 yard gain to the WM10 (#40 A.Wasserman; #93 S.Onuoha)Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+6
100.0%
(00:23) Shotgun #23 B.Smalls rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WM16 (#19 J.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:42
(10:48) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass complete deep middle to #7 K.Simmons caught at WM05, for 29 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:42, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)
+0.9
TD · Q1 2:58
(03:01) Shotgun #6 W.Watkins pass complete short left to #31 J.Reuter caught at DUKE06, for 6 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:58 #43 M.Lipinski kick attempt good (H: #16 P.Blee, LS: #50 M.Kabban)
-0.3
TD · Q2 0:26
(00:32) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #17 J.Richardson caught at WM05, for 28 yards to the WM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:26, 1ST DOWN #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com