Try the model
CARK

Central Arkansas 7 at Florida State 34

FSU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · (00:44) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short middle to #7 T.Durham caught at FSU24, for 6 yards to the FSU23 (#21 M.Redmon), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense+36.3Score differential+30.9Garbage-time factor+9.9Blowout margin+17.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:17: (08:17) Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers) — FSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: (01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:40 #46 C.Jones kick attempt good (H: #17 P.Miller, LS: #41 T.Moody) — CARK win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:33: (01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 1 yard gain to the FSU36 (#28 S.Jackson), out of bounds — FSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:50: (05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #15 J.Boggs caught at UCA01, for 34 yards to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers) — FSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:16: (01:19) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 01:16 — FSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 9:26CARK 4th & 3 at FSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:45CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:05FSU 4th & 5 at CARK 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:18CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:44CARK 4th & 1 at FSU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:52CARK 4th & 17 at FSU 37, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:18CARK 4th & 11 at CARK 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:16FSU 4th & 8 at CARK 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:19CARK 4th & 27 at CARK 45, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:06FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:40CARK 4th & 4 at FSU 29, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:16CARK 4th & 10 at FSU 23, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:56FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:17FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:40CARK Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:50FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.5%
(14:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to UCA13 PENALTY UCA Pass Interference (#21 B.Adamoh) 15 yards from UCA45 to UCA30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.5%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCA29 (#21 B.Adamoh)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
99.5%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #0 D.Robinson caught at UCA07, for 29 yards to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:16, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:411% → 1%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.5%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #11 T.Pollard caught at UCA31, for 11 yards to the UCA36 (#12 N.Chandler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
(13:33) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCA41 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
99.5%
(12:52) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #6 K.Juniel caught at UCA40, for 9 yards to the UCA50 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.4%
(12:10) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU47 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
99.4%
(11:26) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #5 J.Jointer, Jr. caught at FSU44, for 4 yards to the FSU43 (#11 C.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
99.4%
(10:47) PENALTY UCA False Start (#72 L.Owens) 5 yards from FSU43 to FSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
99.4%
PENALTY UCA False Start (#71 B.Ringleb) 5 yards from FSU48 to UCA47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+10
99.4%
(10:13) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FSU43 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
99.3%
(09:28) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Anderson thrown to FSU40, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:2199% → 99%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at FSU42, for 3 yards to the FSU46 (#8 J.Shell; #35 D.Blunt)Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+12
99.3%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Danzy caught at FSU44, for 12 yards to the UCA42 (#1 T.Bulock), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.3%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 15 yards gain to the UCA27 (#21 B.Adamoh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
99.3%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 26 yards gain to the UCA01 (#6 J.Sekiyoba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
99.3%
PENALTY FSU False Start (#18 L.Thomas) 5 yards from UCA01 to UCA06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 6 yards gain to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:56 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:591% → 1%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.3%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left thrown to UCA21 QB hurried by #13 D.DiggsSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
99.3%
(06:42) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UCA19 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-8
99.3%
(06:02) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UCA11 (#15 R.Kennedy)Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 20
OWN 11
+15
99.3%
(05:18) #37 W.Salter punt 43 yards to the FSU46 #7 J.Lopez return 1 yard to the FSU47, End Of Play PENALTY FSU Roughing The Kicker (#12 N.Chandler) 15 yards from UCA11 to UCA26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.3%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush left for 8 yards gain to the UCA34 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+10
99.2%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #11 T.Pollard thrown to UCA34 PENALTY FSU Holding (#12 N.Chandler) 10 yards from UCA34 to UCA44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.2%
(04:24) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short middle to #6 K.Juniel caught at UCA49, for 6 yards to the UCA50 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 4
50
+10
99.2%
(03:43) Shotgun #5 J.Jointer, Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the FSU46 (#14 M.Jones) PENALTY UCA Holding (#70 L.Woolridge III) 10 yards from UCA50 to UCA40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+5
99.2%
(03:15) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short right to #10 W.White caught at UCA45, for 5 yards to the UCA45 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+2
99.2%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Jointer, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCA47 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+9
99.1%
(01:54) #37 W.Salter punt 47 yards to the FSU06 #7 J.Lopez return 9 yards to the FSU15 (#12 G.Bonner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.2%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU17 (#51 K.Vocque; #34 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+15
99.2%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 15 yards gain to the FSU32, out of bounds at FSU32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.1%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU35 (#99 C.Allen)Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+32
99.1%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU49, for 32 yards to the UCA33 (#24 R.Hardin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
99.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #15 J.Boggs caught at UCA16, for 27 yards to the UCA06 (#1 T.Bulock), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+10
99.1%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 4 yards gain to the UCA02 (#0 K.Thomas) PENALTY FSU Holding (#71 N.Pabst) 10 yards from UCA06 to UCA16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+11
99.1%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 11 yards gain to the UCA05 (#34 A.Williams; #35 D.Blunt)Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.1%
(13:21) Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #32 O.Kromah thrown to UCA02Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.1%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right thrown to UCA00 QB hurried by #8 J.ShellSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.2%
(13:07) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 13:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.1%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #11 T.Pollard caught at UCA37, for 18 yards to the UCA43 (#6 J.Rawls; #10 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.1%
(12:19) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Washington thrown to UCA50 QB hurried by #14 M.JonesSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.1%
(12:16) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCA47 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
99.0%
(11:29) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #7 T.Durham thrown to FSU38 QB hurried by #5 D.LyonsSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+5
99.0%
(11:22) #37 W.Salter punt 46 yards to the FSU07 #7 J.Lopez return 5 yards to the FSU12 (#12 G.Bonner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:5199% → 100%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
99.2%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 18 yards gain to the FSU30 (#99 C.Allen; #34 A.Williams), 1ST DOWN. #30 D.Cobbs injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
99.2%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 M.Danzy rush right for 19 yards gain to the FSU49 (#21 B.Adamoh; #90 J.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.2%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to #6 D.Riles thrown to UCA25Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.2%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 22 yards gain to the UCA29 (#24 R.Hardin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
99.2%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #32 O.Kromah caught at UCA24, for 19 yards to the UCA10 (#21 B.Adamoh; #34 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to UCA00 QB hurried by #6 J.SekiyobaSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.2%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #7 J.Lopez caught at UCA13, for 9 yards to the UCA01 (#16 C.Hill)Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
(08:17) Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:311% → 2%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCA29 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
(07:30) Shotgun #2 C.Young rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UCA37 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.3%
(06:54) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short middle to #8 D.Anderson caught at UCA44, for 9 yards to the UCA46 (#11 C.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
99.2%
(06:10) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Young thrown to UCA44 QB hurried by #32 J.AndersonSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
99.2%
(06:07) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCA49 (#6 J.Rawls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.2%
(05:25) Shotgun #10 W.White rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU49 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
99.2%
(04:47) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short right to #7 T.Durham thrown to FSU45Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
99.2%
(04:44) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short right to #8 D.Anderson caught at FSU43, for 7 yards to the FSU42 (#14 M.Jones)Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
99.2%
(03:48) Shotgun #19 Q.Tillman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU38 (#10 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.2%
(03:18) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #8 D.Anderson caught at FSU36, for 7 yards to the FSU31 fumbled by #8 D.Anderson at FSU32 forced by #14 M.Jones recovered by UCA #8 D.Anderson at FSU31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-1
99.1%
(02:45) Shotgun #5 J.Jointer, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FSU32 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
99.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush right for 0 yards to the FSU32 (#10 C.Jones) PENALTY FSU Face Mask (#28 M.Gbayor) 15 yards from FSU32 to FSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
99.0%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Pollard thrown to FSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (#12 N.Chandler) 15 yards from FSU17 to FSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.1%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #19 Q.Tillman thrown to FSU00 QB hurried by #11 C.Richard Jr.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:40 #46 C.Jones kick attempt good (H: #17 P.Miller, LS: #41 T.Moody)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.9%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 1 yard gain to the FSU36 (#28 S.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
98.9%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at FSU35, for 12 yards to the FSU48 (#34 A.Williams; #28 S.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
98.9%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCA48 (#28 S.Jackson; #99 C.Allen)Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
98.9%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at UCA43, for 7 yards to the UCA41 (#1 T.Bulock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
98.9%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCA34 (#10 S.Horton)Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
98.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the UCA30 (#6 J.Sekiyoba; #34 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.7%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #34 A.Williams at UCA24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
98.4%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #8 D.Anderson caught at UCA22, for 12 yards to the UCA36, out of bounds at UCA36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.3%
(00:14) Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCA37 (#3 M.Desir; #5 D.Lyons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:522% → 2%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.5%
(14:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 W.White rush right for 3 yards gain to the UCA28 (#3 M.Desir; #11 C.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
98.4%
(14:10) Shotgun #2 C.Young rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCA35 (#9 O.Graham Jr.; #10 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.3%
(13:31) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCA41 (#7 A.Barker). #10 C.Jones injured on the playSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
98.2%
(13:09) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCA46 (#14 M.Jones; #11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
98.2%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 W.White rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FSU47 (#11 C.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
98.1%
(11:55) Shotgun #2 C.Young rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU45 (#28 M.Gbayor; #13 D.Diggs) PENALTY FSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#14 M.Jones) 15 yards from FSU45 to FSU30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
98.0%
(11:25) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU26 (#11 C.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+10
97.9%
(10:41) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush left for 13 yards gain to the FSU13 (#6 J.Rawls; #11 C.Richard Jr.), out of bounds PENALTY UCA Holding (#66 C.Peine) 10 yards from FSU26 to FSU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+2
98.2%
(10:19) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo rush left for 2 yards gain to the FSU34 (#3 M.Desir), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-3
98.2%
(09:34) Shotgun #2 C.Young rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FSU37 (#9 O.Graham Jr.; #15 R.Kennedy)Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
98.2%
(08:52) #37 W.Salter punt 37 yards to the FSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5399% → 99%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.6%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 2 yards gain to the FSU22 (#48 R.Jones; #34 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
98.6%
(08:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 13 yards gain to the FSU35 (#21 B.Adamoh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
98.6%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU48, for 17 yards to the UCA48 (#14 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.6%
PENALTY UCA Offside (#8 J.Shell) 5 yards from UCA48 to UCA43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+4
98.6%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCA39 (#48 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
98.6%
PENALTY UCA Offside (#0 K.Thomas) 5 yards from UCA39 to UCA34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.6%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 0 yards to the UCA34 (#34 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.3%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #15 J.Boggs caught at UCA01, for 34 yards to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UCA24 (#8 D.McCray)Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
(05:11) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 0 yards to the UCA24 (#55 K.Wynn)Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
(04:26) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Anderson thrown to UCA28Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
(04:22) #37 W.Salter punt 33 yards to the FSU43, out of bounds at FSU43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5199% → 100%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.4%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU47 (#16 C.Hill)Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
99.4%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #32 O.Kromah thrown to UCA39 PENALTY UCA Holding (#21 B.Adamoh) 10 yards from FSU47 to UCA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.4%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UCA30 (#6 J.Sekiyoba), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (#6 D.Riles) 10 yards from UCA43 to FSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+15
99.4%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to UCA10 PENALTY UCA Pass Interference (#3 S.Johnson) 15 yards from FSU47 to UCA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
99.4%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #0 D.Robinson caught at UCA21, for 23 yards to the UCA15 (#21 B.Adamoh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
99.4%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCA14 (#99 C.Allen)Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
99.4%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCA13 (#21 B.Adamoh)Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
99.4%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #82 T.Mallory thrown to UCA03Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
99.9%
(01:19) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 01:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCA26, out of bounds at UCA26Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
99.9%
(00:35) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short right to #29 C.McKown caught at UCA26, for 21 yards to the UCA47 (#28 M.Gbayor; #33 A.Cromartie Jr), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UCA45 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+11
99.9%
(14:21) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short middle to #7 T.Durham caught at FSU48, for 11 yards to the FSU44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
(13:44) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FSU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
(13:07) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Anderson thrown to FSU30 QB hurried by #27 J.Crutchfield PENALTY UCA Holding (#72 L.Owens) 10 yards from FSU38 to FSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
99.9%
(13:04) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete deep right to #11 T.Pollard thrown to FSU15 broken up by #33 A.Cromartie JrSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 20
OPP 48
0
99.9%
(12:55) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left thrown to FSU40 QB hurried by #3 M.DesirSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 20
OPP 48
-7
99.9%
(12:51) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UCA45 (#3 M.Desir)Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 27
OWN 45
+25
99.9%
(12:29) #37 W.Salter punt 48 yards to the FSU07 #7 J.Lopez return 25 yards to the FSU32 (#11 T.Traylor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU33 (#4 Q.McDowell)Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FSU38 (#34 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Sperry pass complete short right to #7 J.Lopez caught at FSU43, for 9 yards to the FSU47, out of bounds at FSU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Sperry sacked for loss of 10 yards to the FSU37 (#0 K.Thomas)Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Thomas rush right for 5 yards gain to the FSU42 (#6 J.Sekiyoba; #11 T.Traylor)Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Sperry pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU47, for 5 yards to the FSU47 (#1 T.Bulock) PENALTY FSU Holding declined. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Sperry pass incomplete short middle to #15 J.Boggs thrown to FSU48 broken up by #1 T.Bulock PENALTY FSU Holding declined. #1 T.Bulock injured on the play)Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
(09:06) #36 D.Hughes punt 49 yards to the UCA04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17DOWNS
26 plays · 73 yds · 8:410% → 0%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
100.0%
(09:04) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #11 T.Pollard caught at UCA09, for 5 yards to the UCA09 (#4 C.Lester III)Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+4
100.0%
(08:39) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCA13 (#31 K.Maycock; #45 N.LaVallee)Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
100.0%
(08:08) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCA16 (#45 N.LaVallee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
100.0%
(07:25) Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush left for 4 yards gain to the UCA20 (#4 C.Lester III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
100.0%
(06:44) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short right to #29 C.McKown thrown to UCA21Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+7
100.0%
(06:43) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short left to #11 T.Pollard caught at UCA27, for 7 yards to the UCA27 (#4 C.Lester III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
(05:54) Shotgun #10 W.White rush left for 2 yards loss to the UCA25 (#45 N.LaVallee)Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
(05:16) Shotgun #2 C.Young rush left for 5 yards gain to the UCA30 (#4 C.Lester III)Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
(04:34) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCA35 (#41 A.Cottrill)Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
PENALTY FSU Offside (#88 J.Sanders) 5 yards from UCA35 to UCA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
100.0%
(03:53) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete deep right to #11 T.Pollard thrown to FSU20 PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (#18 J.Howard) 15 yards from UCA40 to FSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
100.0%
(03:47) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU42 (#27 J.Crutchfield)Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
100.0%
(03:10) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU38 (#21 M.Redmon; #19 J.Boatwright Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
100.0%
(02:25) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU35 (#31 K.Maycock; #88 J.Sanders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #29 C.McKown rush right for 4 yards loss to the FSU39 (#31 K.Maycock)Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-4
100.0%
(01:30) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo sacked for loss of 4 yards to the FSU43 (#88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+14
100.0%
(00:53) Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush right for 14 yards gain to the FSU29 (#22 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+6
100.0%
(00:44) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass complete short middle to #7 T.Durham caught at FSU24, for 6 yards to the FSU23 (#21 M.Redmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
(00:35) Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left thrown to FSU08 QB hurried by #45 N.LaValleeSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short right thrown to FSU23 QB hurried by #45 N.LaValleeSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Edwards thrown to FSU19Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Omolo pass incomplete deep left to #4 T.Edwards thrown to FSU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
(00:14) Kneel down by #9 K.Sperry at FSU21 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:40
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:40 #46 C.Jones kick attempt good (H: #17 P.Miller, LS: #41 T.Moody)
-0.9
TD · Q3 5:50
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #15 J.Boggs caught at UCA01, for 34 yards to the UCA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)
+0.7
FG · Q3 1:16
(01:19) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 01:16
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com