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ME

Maine 16 at Boston College 22

BC
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:11 · (10:12) #82 A.Pecorella punt 31 yards to the BC 35, out of bounds at BC 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+46.7Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:01: (09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 39 yards gain to the MAI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:01, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook) — BC win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:42: Johnathan Montague Jr. 31 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Nick Laughlin 5 Yd pass from Eddie Buehler (Samuel Tremblay Kick) — ME win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:20: Luca Lombardo 26 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:34: Nick Laughlin 7 Yd pass from Eddie Buehler (Samuel Tremblay PAT blocked) — ME win probability +15.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ME made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:09BC 4th & 1 at ME 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11ME 4th & 2 at ME 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25BC 4th & 1 at ME 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54ME 4th & 19 at ME 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19BC 4th & 3 at BC 34, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30ME 4th & 19 at ME 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42ME 4th & 1 at BC 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:22ME 4th & 6 at BC 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50BC 4th & 8 at ME 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:20BC 4th & 4 at ME 8, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56ME 4th & 3 at BC 3, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:19BC 4th & 12 at ME 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ME made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:42BC Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:09ME Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:34ME Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
98.2%
(14:54) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI22 (#8 J.Gibson)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+1
98.2%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #9 L.Wright caught at MAI24, for 1 yard to the MAI21 (#6 B.Isaiah)Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
98.1%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #3 D.Pough caught at MAI19, for 6 yards to the MAI15 (#7 N.Carpenter; #2 J.McGill)Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
98.1%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 0 yards to the MAI15 (#9 C.Bacon), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:512% → 2%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.0%
(13:09) Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MAI22 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
98.0%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAI26 (#2 K.Price; #59 M.Amedee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
97.9%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #88 S.Ramery caught at MAI25, for 3 yards to the MAI29 (#5 M.Upton)Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
97.8%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #5 R.Marshall caught at MAI27, for 5 yards to the MAI34 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
97.7%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short left to #88 S.Ramery caught at MAI34, for 0 yards to the MAI34 QB hurried by #8 O.Nwosisi (#5 M.Upton; #2 K.Price)Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
97.7%
(10:12) #82 A.Pecorella punt 31 yards to the BC 35, out of bounds at BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.7%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 37 (#10 S.Oppenheimer)Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+24
97.6%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep right to #9 L.Wright caught at MAI39, for 24 yards to the MAI39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
97.8%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 39 yards gain to the MAI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:01, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:052% → 3%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
97.7%
(08:56) Shotgun #38 A.Winter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI17 (#7 C.Davis; #88 C.McGee)Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
97.6%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #20 N.Laughlin caught at MAI24, for 9 yards to the MAI26 (#7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
97.6%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short left to #20 N.Laughlin caught at MAI22, for 2 yards loss to the MAI24 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+7
97.5%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MAI31 (#1 A.Palano; #2 K.Price)Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
97.5%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass intercepted by #2 K.Price at MAI33 QB hurried by #8 O.Nwosisi #2 K.Price return 0 yards to the MAI33 (#12 E.Wallace)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1298% → 97%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.6%
PENALTY MAI Offside (#27 D.Berlitz) 5 yards from MAI33 to MAI28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+14
97.6%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete deep right to #88 B.Lewis thrown to MAI04 QB hurried by #98 D.White PENALTY MAI Roughing The Passer (#98 D.White) 14 yards from MAI28 to MAI14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 4 yards gain to the MAI10 (#10 S.Oppenheimer)Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
97.5%
(05:44) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 0 yards to the MAI10 (#9 C.Bacon; #11 K.Pressley)Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
97.4%
(05:08) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #1 J.Skeete caught at MAI05, for 5 yards to the MAI05 (#15 J.Kucera)Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
97.3%
(04:30) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush middle for 0 yards to the MAI05 (#27 D.Berlitz; #95 M.Hamilton), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6SF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
97.2%
(04:25) Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MAI06 (#28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
97.2%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short middle to #84 T.Wood thrown to MAI10Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
97.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4297% → 98%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
97.2%
(03:29) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAI38 (#18 J.Brown)Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
97.1%
(02:51) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 5 yards gain to the MAI33 (#31 K.Tiller; #27 D.Berlitz)Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
97.0%
(02:24) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI31 (#98 D.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
97.8%
Johnathan Montague Jr. 31 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.8%
(01:35) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short left to #20 N.Laughlin caught at MAI24, for 0 yards to the MAI24 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.8%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI26 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-11
97.8%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler sacked for loss of 11 yards to the MAI15 (#13 D.Ballard), fumble by #2 E.Buehler recovered by MAI #2 E.Buehler at MAI15, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
97.8%
(14:57) #82 A.Pecorella punt 48 yards to the BC 37 fair catch by #30 X.Myers at BC 37 PENALTY BC Holding (#1 J.Skeete) 10 yards from BC 37 to BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2598% → 98%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
97.8%
(14:54) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 1 yard loss to the BC 26 (#2 J.McGill)Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+8
97.8%
(14:12) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #23 E.Dickens caught at BC 24, for 8 yards to the BC 34 (#27 D.Berlitz)Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
97.7%
(13:28) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #23 E.Dickens thrown to BC 37Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
97.7%
(13:25) #96 B.LaFollette punt 46 yards to the MAI20 fair catch by #25 T.Boone at MAI20 PENALTY BC Holding (#48 Z.Moore) 10 yards from MAI20 to MAI30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:402% → 2%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
97.7%
(13:18) Shotgun #87 I.Jones rush left for 14 yards gain to the MAI44 (#32 C.Comella), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
97.6%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #87 I.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MAI42 (#59 M.Amedee)Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-10
97.6%
(12:04) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MAI32 (#59 M.Amedee)Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 22
OWN 32
+3
97.7%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAI35 (#55 C.Hudson)Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+16
97.7%
(10:38) #82 A.Pecorella punt 55 yards to the BC 10 #32 C.Comella return 16 yards to the BC 26 (#11 K.Pressley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
97.7%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BC 38 (#18 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
97.7%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 8 yards gain to the BC 46 (#10 S.Oppenheimer). #10 M.McKenzie injured on the playSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
97.7%
(09:32) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BC 49 (#44 B.Purnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #88 B.Lewis thrown to MAI45Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
(08:55) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #4 J.Green thrown to MAI41Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-42
97.7%
(08:48) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass intercepted by #8 J.Gibson at MAI28 #8 J.Gibson return 42 yards to the BC 30 (#52 J.Pruitt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:023% → 3%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.2%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #88 S.Ramery caught at BC 31, for 5 yards to the BC 25 (#1 A.Palano; #28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
97.0%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 23 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
97.0%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 21 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+7
97.0%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BC 14 (#14 A.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.8%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short right to #81 M.Leak thrown to BC 00Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
96.8%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 10 (#56 E.Boykin; #59 M.Amedee)Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
96.9%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short left to #88 S.Ramery thrown to BC 02 QB hurried by #2 K.PriceSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
97.0%
Samuel Tremblay 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:1997% → 97%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.4%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at BC 30, for 9 yards to the BC 34 (#7 N.Carpenter; #31 K.Tiller)Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
97.4%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BC 42 (#2 J.McGill), 1ST DOWN. #2 J.McGill injured on the playSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
97.4%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #48 Z.Moore caught at MAI42, for 37 yards to the MAI21 (#31 K.Tiller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
97.4%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at MAI22, for 12 yards to the MAI09 (#6 B.Isaiah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
97.3%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 1 yard gain to the MAI08 (#10 S.Oppenheimer)Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.3%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Skeete thrown to MAI00Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.2%
(03:00) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Montague Jr. thrown to MAI00 broken up by #15 J.KuceraSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
97.1%
Luca Lombardo 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 14TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 2:383% → 6%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short right to #12 E.Wallace thrown to MAI30 QB hurried by #13 D.BallardSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #12 E.Wallace caught at MAI31, for 6 yards to the MAI31 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
96.5%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #12 E.Wallace caught at MAI35, for 8 yards to the MAI39 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.4%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler rush right for 8 yards gain to the MAI47 (#20 J.Medlock)Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
96.2%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #5 R.Marshall caught at MAI49, for 4 yards to the BC 49 (#32 C.Comella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
96.2%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MAI47 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+8
96.7%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #81 M.Leak caught at BC 46, for 8 yards to the BC 45 (#5 M.Upton)Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
96.2%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short to #12 E.Wallace caught at BC 41, for 7 yards to the BC 38 (#0 T.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
95.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BC 47 (#26 F.Bate) PENALTY MAI Intentional Grounding (#2 E.Buehler)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 19
OPP 47
+44
96.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete deep left to #1 T.Stephens caught at BC 15, for 44 yards to the BC 03 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
95.5%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 E.Wallace rush left for 2 yards loss to the BC 05 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.4%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short left to #88 S.Ramery thrown to BC 00 broken up by #88 C.McGeeSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.8%
Nick Laughlin 5 Yd pass from Eddie Buehler (Samuel Tremblay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
94.8%
(00:09) Kneel down by #10 M.McKenzie at BC 11 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 5:0995% → 94%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
94.8%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 4 yards gain to the MAI39 (#15 J.Kucera), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
94.8%
(14:20) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 11 yards gain to the MAI28 (#7 N.Carpenter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
94.7%
(13:40) Shotgun #9 L.Wright rush left for 2 yards loss to the MAI30 (#10 S.Oppenheimer; #15 J.Kucera)Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+11
94.5%
(12:59) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short to #4 J.Green caught at MAI32, for 11 yards to the MAI19 (#7 N.Carpenter; #15 J.Kucera). #6 B.Isaiah injured on the playSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
94.5%
(12:17) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI17 (#22 S.Keyes-Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
94.7%
(11:40) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 12 yards gain to the MAI05 (#10 S.Oppenheimer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
94.6%
(11:05) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI03 (#9 C.Bacon)Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
94.6%
(10:24) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MAI13 (#39 A.Mack)Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
94.1%
(09:43) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass intercepted by #10 S.Oppenheimer at MAI00 #10 S.Oppenheimer return 5 yards to the MAI05 (#8 O.Nwosisi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:057% → 7%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
93.3%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAI07 (#28 Z.Thomas). #13 D.Ballard injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
93.3%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush right for 1 yard gain to the MAI08 (#56 E.Boykin)Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
93.5%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass intercepted by #2 K.Price at MAI14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5894% → 95%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
94.3%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MAI08 (#6 B.Isaiah)Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
94.2%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 0 yards to the MAI08 (#10 S.Oppenheimer), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
93.8%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 0 yards to the MAI08 (#0 T.Chisolm), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
94.9%
Luca Lombardo 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 70 yds · 6:165% → 7%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAI28 (#8 O.Nwosisi; #59 M.Amedee)Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
94.5%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short right to #12 E.Wallace caught at MAI34, for 6 yards to the MAI34 (#7 C.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
94.4%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAI39 (#1 A.Palano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
94.3%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short right to #4 M.McNeely thrown to BC 47 QB hurried by #8 O.Nwosisi PENALTY BC Holding (#3 M.Tucker) 10 yards from MAI39 to MAI49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.9%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #87 I.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 49 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
93.7%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BC 40 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
93.5%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete deep left to #20 N.Laughlin caught at BC 20, for 23 yards to the BC 17 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.8%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Marshall thrown to BC 07 broken up by #3 M.TuckerSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
92.9%
(02:50) Shotgun #38 A.Winter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 13 (#1 A.Palano; #88 C.McGee)Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+10
93.2%
(02:06) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #12 E.Wallace caught at BC 09, for 10 yards to the BC 03 (#28 Z.Thomas; #7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.4%
(01:24) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #19 K.Concepcion caught at BC 06, for 0 yards to the BC 03 (#7 C.Davis; #28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.3%
(00:45) Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 0 yards to the BC 03 (#1 A.Palano; #28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.9%
(00:00) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short left to #16 E.Mahan thrown to BC 04Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
93.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BC 05 (#1 A.Palano), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:2995% → 95%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
95.0%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BC 08 (#10 S.Oppenheimer; #22 S.Keyes-Wilson)Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+5
94.7%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #3 D.Pough caught at BC 11, for 5 yards to the BC 13 (#2 J.McGill), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+17
94.5%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 17 yards gain to the BC 30, out of bounds at BC 30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
94.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Dodd rush middle for 33 yards gain to the MAI37 (#9 C.Bacon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
96.0%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Dodd rush left for 1 yard loss to the MAI38 (#9 C.Bacon), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+4
96.2%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #4 J.Green caught at MAI34, for 4 yards to the MAI34 (#8 J.Gibson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
96.0%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 0 yards to the MAI34 (#0 T.Chisolm). #7 N.Carpenter injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+5
95.4%
PENALTY BC Delay Of Game 5 yards from MAI34 to MAI39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
95.3%
(10:30) #96 B.LaFollette punt 39 yards to the MAI00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:395% → 22%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.2%
(10:19) Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 0 yards to the MAI20 (#7 C.Davis; #28 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+32
95.1%
(09:42) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete deep left to #4 M.McNeely caught at BC 48, for 32 yards to the BC 48 (#7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.1%
(09:17) Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 46 (#59 M.Amedee)Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+31
94.0%
(08:40) Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete deep left to #87 I.Jones caught at BC 15, for 31 yards to the BC 15 (#32 C.Comella), out of bounds PENALTY MAI Holding offsetting BC Targeting offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
93.9%
(08:22) Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BC 41 (#3 M.Tucker; #7 C.Davis)Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
94.2%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #12 E.Wallace caught at BC 35, for 9 yards to the BC 32 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
93.7%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BC 21 (#1 A.Palano; #7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
93.5%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Laughlin rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BC 23 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+12
94.0%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass complete short middle to #4 M.McNeely caught at BC 18, for 12 yards to the BC 11 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.0%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Buehler pass incomplete short right to #81 M.Leak thrown to BC 07 QB hurried by #7 C.DavisSimilar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
94.0%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 07 (#8 O.Nwosisi)Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Nick Laughlin 7 Yd pass from Eddie Buehler (Samuel Tremblay PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 41 yds · 3:3991% → 97%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
91.1%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BC 22 (#2 J.McGill; #10 S.Oppenheimer)Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+9
91.3%
(03:46) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at BC 28, for 9 yards to the BC 31 (#8 J.Gibson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
93.5%
(03:04) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 5 yards gain to the BC 36 (#6 B.Isaiah)Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
94.8%
(02:57) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BC 37 (#22 S.Keyes-Wilson)Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+11
95.2%
(02:50) Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at BC 48, for 11 yards to the BC 48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
95.9%
(02:45) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MAI45 (#10 S.Oppenheimer)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
95.9%
(01:58) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAI40 (#9 C.Bacon; #10 S.Oppenheimer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
96.3%
(01:20) Kneel down by #10 M.McKenzie at MAI42 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-1
96.7%
(00:45) Kneel down by #10 M.McKenzie at MAI43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:34
Nick Laughlin 7 Yd pass from Eddie Buehler (Samuel Tremblay PAT blocked)
-15.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.4
FG · Q3 6:20
Luca Lombardo 26 Yd Field Goal
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com