Try the model
MIA

Miami 33 at Wake Forest 20

WAKE
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2026 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:29 · (11:39) #45 E.Hyams punt 49 yards to the MIA21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior−36.0Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:22: (01:25) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #12 K.Johnson caught at MIA00, for 10 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:22, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #6 S.Pizzella, LS: #49 E.Gilmour) — WAKE win probability +3.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:07: (13:12) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at WFU04, for 21 yards to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jake Weinberg 27 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:06: Jack Foley 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — WAKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: Carlos Hernandez 17 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick) — WAKE win probability +11.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q2 11:29WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 6:57WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:10MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:54WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 2 at WAKE 10, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:53WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:31MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 20, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:27MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:38MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:51WAKE 4th & 5 at MIA 14, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:14MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:24WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:23MIA 4th & 4 at WAKE 36, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:58WAKE 4th & 2 at MIA 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:20MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:22WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:07MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:17MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:06WAKE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56WAKE Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 7:2692% → 90%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
8.1%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA12, for 11 yards to the MIA19 (#6 R.Tongue; #2 B.Blades II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
8.2%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA21 (#21 A.Hall; #52 D.Afalava)Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
8.4%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 D.Upshaw caught at MIA28, for 7 yards to the MIA28 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
8.6%
(13:28) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA34 (#5 D.Patterson; #23 V.Firenze), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
8.9%
(12:53) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA32, for 0 yards to the MIA34 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
9.0%
(12:22) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA39 (#23 V.Firenze; #2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
9.3%
(11:42) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #6 C.Brown caught at MIA33, for 6 yards to the MIA45 (#10 G.Kirschke; #8 B.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
9.4%
(11:04) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA48, for 6 yards to the WFU49 (#5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
9.6%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at WFU46, for 12 yards to the WFU37 (#8 B.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
9.7%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Toney rush right for 1 yard loss to the WFU38 (#8 B.Johnson) PENALTY WFU Face Mask (#8 B.Johnson) 15 yards from WFU37 to WFU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
9.8%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 D.Upshaw caught at WFU28, for 4 yards to the WFU18 (#55 K.Dembele; #2 B.Blades II) PENALTY MIA Illegal Block in Back (#4 M.Fletcher Jr.) 10 yards from WFU18 to WFU28Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 16
OPP 28
+6
10.0%
(09:17) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WFU22 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
10.2%
(08:47) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #0 G.Pringle Jr. caught at WFU26, for 10 yards to the WFU12 (#21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
10.4%
(08:03) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WFU09 (#43 F.Cusano; #94 Z.Lohavichan)Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
9.6%
(07:22) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #3 J.Moore caught at WFU00, for 9 yards to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:20, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4911% → 15%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.6%
(07:20) Shotgun #4 T.Clark rush middle for 0 yards to the WFU25 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
10.7%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #4 T.Clark caught at WFU30, for 13 yards to the WFU38 (#1 M.Toure; #24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
10.5%
(06:18) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #5 K.Shanks caught at WFU41, for 10 yards to the WFU48 (#9 C.Smith; #7 Z.Poyser) PENALTY WFU Pass Interference (#8 C.Hernandez) 10 yards from WFU38 to WFU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+2
10.5%
(06:00) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WFU30 (#8 M.Lightfoot; #9 C.Smith)Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+17
10.6%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #5 K.Shanks caught at WFU45, for 17 yards to the WFU47 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
11.2%
(04:44) #3 G.Lopez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WFU50 (#25 J.Dunnigan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
50
0
11.1%
(04:09) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #22 D.Lawrence thrown to WFU48 QB hurried by #0 O.ThorntonSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
50
+15
11.1%
(04:06) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #12 K.Johnson caught at MIA40, for 15 yards to the MIA35 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (#18 A.Blount) 15 yards from MIA35 to MIA20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
11.7%
(03:33) Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush right for 7 yards gain to the MIA13 (#25 J.Dunnigan)Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
12.0%
(02:53) Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA11 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
12.1%
(02:12) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA10 (#1 M.Toure; #5 J.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.4%
(01:25) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #12 K.Johnson caught at MIA00, for 10 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:22, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #6 S.Pizzella, LS: #49 E.Gilmour)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0586% → 89%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
14.0%
(01:18) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA23, for 4 yards to the MIA24 (#13 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+28
14.3%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA42, for 28 yards to the WFU48 (#5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
13.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 17 yards gain to the WFU31 (#46 D.Dyce; #21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
13.7%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at WFU33, for 2 yards to the WFU29 (#22 M.Turpin)Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+8
13.9%
(13:54) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the WFU21 (#5 D.Patterson; #13 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
11.5%
(13:12) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at WFU04, for 21 yards to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07, 1ST DOWN #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3013% → 13%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.0%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Clark rush right for 1 yard gain to the WFU26 (#5 J.Scott; #18 A.Blount)Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
13.3%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #6 S.Pizzella caught at WFU24, for 4 yards to the WFU30 (#99 A.Moten; #17 E.Marcelin, Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
13.4%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to WFU35Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
13.2%
(11:39) #45 E.Hyams punt 49 yards to the MIA21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:1286% → 88%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
13.9%
(11:29) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA25 PENALTY WFU Roughing The Passer (#10 G.Kirschke) 15 yards from MIA21 to MIA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.5%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIA40 (#52 D.Afalava; #23 V.Firenze)Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
13.5%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA50, for 10 yards to the MIA50 (#43 F.Cusano; #23 V.Firenze), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
13.2%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the WFU46 (#97 M.Herron; #23 V.Firenze)Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
13.2%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at WFU43, for 13 yards to the WFU33 (#21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
13.0%
(09:22) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 32 yards gain to the WFU01 (#13 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.3%
(08:54) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the WFU01 (#21 A.Hall; #43 F.Cusano)Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
(08:20) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17 #22 J.Weinberg kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1611% → 12%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.6%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Clark rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WFU27 (#9 C.Smith; #11 K.Bonner)Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
10.7%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WFU32 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
11.1%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #85 W.Loerzel thrown to WFU42Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
11.7%
(07:03) #45 E.Hyams punt 46 yards to the MIA22 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4187% → 86%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
13.1%
(06:57) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA23 (#52 D.Afalava)Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
13.3%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA25, for 2 yards to the MIA25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-1
13.7%
(05:56) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIA24 (#11 L.Hardy)Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
14.1%
(05:16) #94 D.Joyce punt 44 yards to the WFU32 fair catch by #8 C.Hernandez at WFU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:099% → 9%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
9.2%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush right for 6 yards gain to the WFU38 (#17 E.Marcelin, Jr.; #7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
9.6%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #5 K.Shanks thrown to WFU35 broken up by #7 Z.Poyser QB hurried by #17 E.Marcelin, Jr.Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
9.2%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #5 K.Shanks caught at WFU34, for 0 yards to the WFU38 (#3 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
9.3%
(04:00) #45 E.Hyams punt 42 yards to the MIA20 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:4988% → 94%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
12.4%
(03:54) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA24, for 9 yards to the MIA29 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
12.4%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA30, for 6 yards to the MIA35 (#8 B.Johnson; #13 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
12.3%
(03:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA38 (#55 K.Dembele)Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
11.9%
(02:34) Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA41 (#94 Z.Lohavichan; #21 A.Hall)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+27
10.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at WFU44, for 27 yards to the WFU32 (#6 R.Tongue), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
9.6%
(01:54) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 14 yards gain to the WFU18 (#6 R.Tongue), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
8.2%
(01:24) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush right for 2 yards gain to the WFU16 (#10 G.Kirschke; #97 M.Herron)Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
8.2%
(00:41) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at WFU11, for 6 yards to the WFU10, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
8.9%
(00:31) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the WFU10 (#8 B.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
6.3%
Jake Weinberg 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:007% → 7%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #14 A.Meeks caught at WFU28, for 4 yards to the WFU29 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
7.4%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WFU19 (#8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+1
7.5%
(13:57) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at WFU18, for 1 yard to the WFU20 (#9 C.Smith)Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
7.5%
(13:10) PENALTY WFU False Start (#35 K.Bartley) 5 yards from WFU20 to WFU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
7.1%
(12:57) #45 E.Hyams punt 41 yards to the MIA44 fair catch by #18 C.Barkate at MIA44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:5095% → 98%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
4.7%
(12:52) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA45 (#11 L.Hardy; #5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
4.4%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA50, for 7 yards to the WFU48 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+14
3.8%
(11:42) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the WFU34 (#6 R.Tongue), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
3.9%
(11:08) Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WFU26 (#11 L.Hardy; #13 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+9
3.6%
(10:30) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #7 D.Upshaw caught at WFU24, for 9 yards to the WFU17 (#2 B.Blades II; #5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
3.3%
(10:02) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WFU08 (#5 D.Patterson; #17 Z.Stevenson)Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+4
3.2%
(09:22) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WFU04 (#94 Z.Lohavichan; #43 F.Cusano), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WFU Personal Foul (#14 T.Walton) 2 yards from WFU04 to WFU02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.9%
Malachi Toney 2 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:444% → 9%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.5%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush middle for 13 yards gain to the WFU38 (#2 D.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
3.6%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at WFU38, for 6 yards to the WFU44 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
3.5%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA40, for 16 yards to the MIA40, out of bounds at MIA40 PENALTY WFU Holding (#64 R.Berger) 10 yards from WFU44 to WFU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+10
3.3%
(07:22) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #18 D.Dickmann caught at WFU35, for 10 yards to the WFU44 (#35 M.Toney)Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
3.2%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #18 D.Dickmann caught at MIA50, for 12 yards to the MIA44 (#25 J.Dunnigan; #9 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
3.4%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MIA49 (#10 D.Wilson II)Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+15
3.3%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #4 T.Clark caught at WFU48, for 10 yards to the MIA39 fumbled by #4 T.Clark at MIA39 forced by #0 O.Thornton recovered by MIA #0 O.Thornton at MIA39, End Of Play PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (#99 A.Moten) 15 yards from MIA49 to MIA34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
3.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA34, for 7 yards to the MIA27 (#25 J.Dunnigan)Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
3.6%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA30, for 4 yards to the MIA23 (#1 M.Toure), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.5%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
3.4%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #12 K.Johnson thrown to MIA27Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
8.6%
Jack Foley 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1992% → 92%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
7.9%
(03:56) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at MIA11, for 2 yards to the MIA14 (#13 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
8.7%
(03:24) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA25 QB hurried by #46 D.DyceSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+6
9.0%
(03:18) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 6 yards gain to the MIA20 (#8 B.Johnson; #23 V.Firenze)Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
8.1%
(02:37) #94 D.Joyce punt 43 yards to the WFU37 fair catch by #8 C.Hernandez at WFU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:277% → 19%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
6.9%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at WFU33, for 3 yards loss to the WFU34 (#2 D.Brown)Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+14
6.4%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #22 D.Lawrence caught at WFU38, for 14 yards to the WFU48 (#17 E.Marcelin, Jr.; #25 J.Dunnigan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
7.0%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA42, for 10 yards to the MIA42, out of bounds at MIA42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
7.3%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #10 J.Foley caught at MIA34, for 11 yards to the MIA31 (#17 E.Marcelin, Jr.; #7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
7.6%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MIA32 (#0 O.Thornton; #97 K.Davis)Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+15
7.3%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #85 W.Loerzel caught at MIA22, for 15 yards to the MIA17 (#3 B.Fitzgerald; #24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
18.6%
Carlos Hernandez 17 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2488% → 89%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.7%
(14:56) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA27 (#94 Z.Lohavichan; #21 A.Hall)Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
12.2%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA28, for 1 yard to the MIA28 (#8 B.Johnson)Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
11.3%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep left to #9 E.Lofton thrown to MIA48 broken up by #5 D.PattersonSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.5%
(13:38) #94 D.Joyce punt 52 yards to the WFU20 #8 C.Hernandez return 27 yards to the WFU47 (#4 C.Pruitt) PENALTY WFU Holding (#43 F.Cusano) 10 yards from WFU20 to WFU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16SF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1112% → 11%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
11.8%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to WFU07 QB hurried by #18 A.BlountSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
11.7%
(13:22) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Foley thrown to WFU20 QB hurried by #0 O.ThorntonSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
10.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2096% → 96%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
4.2%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 2 yards loss to the MIA35 (#10 G.Kirschke)Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+1
4.4%
(12:31) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at MIA36, for 1 yard to the MIA36 (#38 S.Eaddy)Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
3.9%
(11:53) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. thrown to MIA38 QB hurried by #52 D.AfalavaSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
3.9%
(11:45) #94 D.Joyce punt 42 yards to the WFU22 fair catch by #8 C.Hernandez at WFU22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4014% → 12%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
14.0%
(11:38) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #10 J.Foley caught at WFU26, for 4 yards to the WFU26 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
14.7%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #84 D.Barry caught at WFU28, for 6 yards to the WFU32 (#0 O.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+49
13.1%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #10 J.Foley caught at MIA30, for 49 yards to the MIA19 (#25 J.Dunnigan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
16.0%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #14 A.Meeks caught at MIA16, for 5 yards to the MIA14 (#25 J.Dunnigan)Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
16.0%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Foley thrown to MIA00 broken up by #3 B.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
14.6%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Lawrence rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA14 (#25 J.Dunnigan; #18 A.Blount)Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
12.4%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to MIA00 broken up by #7 Z.Poyser, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2997% → 97%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
3.5%
(08:51) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA11, for 1 yard to the MIA15 (#94 Z.Lohavichan; #52 D.Afalava)Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
3.3%
(08:15) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA12, for 0 yards to the MIA15 (#11 L.Hardy; #94 Z.Lohavichan)Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
3.5%
(07:37) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #9 E.Lofton thrown to MIA46 QB hurried by #5 D.PattersonSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+14
3.2%
(07:32) #94 D.Joyce punt 54 yards to the WFU31 #8 C.Hernandez return 59 yards to the MIA10 (#9 C.Smith) PENALTY WFU Holding (#26 F.Gillens) 10 yards from WFU45 to WFU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:469% → 9%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.4%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Foley thrown to MIA47 QB hurried by #25 J.DunniganSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
9.5%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WFU31 (#18 A.Blount, #99 A.Moten)Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+10
7.9%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez rush left for 6 yards gain to the WFU37 (#5 J.Scott) PENALTY WFU Holding (#65 C.Richard) 10 yards from WFU31 to WFU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+21
7.5%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at WFU32, for 21 yards to the WFU42 (#24 E.O'Connor; #3 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
8.7%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #14 A.Meeks thrown to WFU43 QB hurried by #25 J.Dunnigan, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5298% → 97%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
2.1%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at WFU43, for 2 yards to the WFU40 (#8 B.Johnson; #21 A.Hall)Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
1.9%
(04:40) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush left for 2 yards gain to the WFU38 (#38 S.Eaddy; #5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
2.4%
(04:35) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 D.Upshaw caught at WFU39, for 2 yards to the WFU36 (#38 S.Eaddy; #11 L.Hardy)Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+54
2.7%
(04:27) #22 J.Weinberg field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD blocked by #94 Z.Lohavichan (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 04:23, out of bounds at WFU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:466% → 6%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
6.3%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #10 J.Foley caught at WFU41, for 7 yards to the WFU43 (#11 K.Bonner)Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+24
5.4%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #10 J.Foley caught at MIA33, for 24 yards to the MIA33 (#24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.4%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to MIA07Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
7.2%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA31, for 3 yards to the MIA30 (#3 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
6.3%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left thrown to MIA10 QB hurried by #8 M.LightfootSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+5
5.9%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#10 D.Wilson II) 5 yards from MIA30 to MIA25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+3
6.8%
(03:07) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at MIA24, for 3 yards to the MIA22 (#24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
7.0%
(02:40) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #14 A.Meeks thrown to MIA00Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
6.6%
(02:36) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA17 QB hurried by #25 J.DunniganSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
5.8%
(02:30) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass intercepted by #24 E.O'Connor at MIA04 #24 E.O'Connor return 0 yards to the MIA04 (#1 K.Daniels) PENALTY WFU Holding declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF HALF
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:0196% → 98%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
4.2%
(02:21) #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA04 (#94 Z.Lohavichan; #43 F.Cusano)Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
3.7%
(02:19) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA07 (#11 L.Hardy; #94 Z.Lohavichan)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+5
2.3%
PENALTY WFU Offside (#43 F.Cusano) 5 yards from MIA07 to MIA12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+3
2.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA15 (#43 F.Cusano; #21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
2.0%
(01:26) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at MIA14 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 0
0
0.9%
(00:43) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at MIA14 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-1
2.1%
(00:19) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at MIA13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
Carlos Hernandez 17 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)
+11.3
TD · Q3 4:06
Jack Foley 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+5.2
TD · Q1 1:22
(01:25) Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #12 K.Johnson caught at MIA00, for 10 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:22, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #6 S.Pizzella, LS: #49 E.Gilmour)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com