Try the model
NORF

Norfolk State 3 at Virginia 59

UVA
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2026 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreNORF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:11 · (07:14) #97 M.Peery field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 E.Helfrich, LS: #49 B.Heffron), clock 07:11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+42.1Home team on offense+12.1Score differential+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:12: (03:19) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #4 J.Gibson caught at NSU25, for 30 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:05: (04:07) #97 M.Peery field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #37 E.Helfrich, LS: #49 B.Heffron), clock 04:05 — NORF win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:05: Timeout Norfolk State, clock 04:05 — UVA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:04: (01:06) #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:57: (10:57) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass complete short right to #8 T.Coleman caught at NSU00, for 1 yard to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:57 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff) — UVA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NORF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:36NORF 4th & 7 at UVA 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39UVA 4th & 2 at NORF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11NORF 4th & 6 at NORF 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:25NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06UVA 4th & 23 at UVA 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11NORF 4th & 4 at UVA 14, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:05NORF 4th & 7 at UVA 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:52NORF 4th & 1 at NORF 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35NORF 4th & 9 at NORF 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:02UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 38, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:45NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 4, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:32NORF 4th & 8 at NORF 35, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:23UVA 4th & 4 at NORF 12, up 46
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:34NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 21, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:39UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:30UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:12UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04UVA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:57UVA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:21UVA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54UVA Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:17UVA Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NORFDrive 1INT
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:091% → 1%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #0 E.Mitchell caught at NSU34, for 9 yards to the NSU34 (#5 K.Robinson; #10 J.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.4%
(14:24) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #0 E.Mitchell caught at NSU35, for 6 yards to the NSU40 (#10 J.Henderson; #4 C.Costner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
(13:58) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #1 P.Billups II thrown to UVA49Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
(13:57) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #3 J.Daniels thrown to NSU45 broken up by #91 J.HammondSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.4%
(13:54) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NSU31 (#44 D.Henry-Young, #33 N.Anyanwu) PENALTY UVA Holding 10 yards from NSU40 to NSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
50
0
99.3%
(13:22) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Caldwell thrown to UVA41Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
50
+18
99.3%
(13:17) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #11 B.Caldwell caught at NSU48, for 18 yards to the UVA32 (#30 E.Minter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.3%
(12:54) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #3 J.Daniels caught at UVA31, for 7 yards to the UVA25 (#30 E.Minter; #44 D.Henry-Young)Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-9
99.3%
(12:21) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UVA34 (#33 N.Anyanwu)Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+5
99.2%
(11:28) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #0 E.Mitchell caught at UVA30, for 5 yards to the UVA29 (#26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 7
OPP 29
-50
99.2%
(10:48) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass intercepted by #6 B.Hillman at UVA13 #6 B.Hillman return 50 yards to the NSU37 (#2 D.Bailey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
99.2%
(10:31) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #0 X.Brown caught at NSU38, for 11 yards to the NSU26 (#13 B.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.2%
(10:04) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #9 D.Twitty caught at NSU22, for 5 yards to the NSU21 (#5 S.Hall)Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+7
99.1%
(09:41) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #8 T.Coleman caught at NSU15, for 7 yards to the NSU14 (#29 J.Waldron), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.1%
(09:21) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NSU13 (#8 M.Moses; #13 B.Thompson)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
99.1%
(08:49) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NSU11 (#13 B.Thompson)Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
99.0%
(08:25) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at NSU06, for 5 yards to the NSU06 (#29 J.Waldron), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
B. Pribula pass to J. Gibson for 6 yds, for a TD (W. Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 3INT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
(07:28) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NSU27 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.0%
(07:05) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #3 J.Daniels caught at NSU25, for 3 yards to the NSU30 (#10 J.Henderson)Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.0%
(06:29) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short middle to #80 R.Ciocca caught at NSU36, for 6 yards to the NSU36 (#2 D.Platt) PENALTY NSU Personal Foul (#3 J.Daniels) 15 yards from NSU30 to NSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
99.0%
(06:01) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass intercepted by #6 B.Hillman at NSU22, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.0%
(05:55) #25 X.Davis rush right for 4 yards gain to the NSU18 (#98 Q.Goins; #2 N.Bashir) PENALTY UVA Illegal Shift 5 yards from NSU22 to NSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
B. Pribula pass to D. Martin for 27 yds, for a TD (W. Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
(05:28) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NSU27 (#5 K.Robinson; #44 D.Henry-Young)Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.0%
(04:55) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #80 R.Ciocca caught at NSU29, for 2 yards to the NSU29 (#6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.0%
(04:28) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #0 E.Mitchell thrown to NSU45 QB hurried by #14 F.CamacSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+13
99.0%
(04:19) #97 M.Peery punt 50 yards to the UVA21 #13 J.Abdullah return 13 yards to the UVA34 (#49 B.Heffron)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+29
99.1%
(04:10) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep middle to #5 K.Courtney caught at NSU41, for 29 yards to the NSU37 (#2 N.Bashir), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.1%
(03:35) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 7 yards gain to the NSU30 (#29 J.Waldron)Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
(03:19) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #4 J.Gibson caught at NSU25, for 30 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:361% → 1%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
(03:10) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #1 P.Billups II caught at NSU29, for 5 yards to the NSU30 (#10 J.Henderson)Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.2%
(02:33) #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NSU34 (#1 M.Williams; #30 E.Minter)Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.2%
(02:08) #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NSU36 (#22 I.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.2%
(01:49) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 0 yards to the NSU36 (#32 L.Danley; #55 A.Britton)Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.2%
(01:17) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey rush left for 3 yards gain to the NSU39 (#14 F.Camac)Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
99.2%
(00:37) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #0 E.Mitchell thrown to NSU45 QB hurried by #16 M.Fobbs-WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
99.2%
(00:31) #97 M.Peery punt 45 yards to the UVA16 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
99.3%
(00:23) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete deep middle to #11 I.Robinson caught at UVA36, for 29 yards to the UVA45 (#13 B.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.3%
(00:02) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass incomplete short left to #11 I.Robinson thrown to NSU49Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NSU44 (#65 L.Candis; #1 J.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
99.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush left for 4 yards loss to the NSU48 (#15 R.Perry)Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+1
99.3%
(14:28) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA48, for 1 yard to the NSU47 (#24 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-10
99.3%
(13:56) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UVA43 (#15 R.Perry)Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 23
OWN 43
0
99.3%
(13:12) #38 D.Sparks punt 47 yards to the NSU10 fair catch by #12 J.Wonodi at NSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:471% → 1%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
99.2%
(13:04) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NSU18 (#6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
99.2%
(12:22) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NSU23 (#5 K.Robinson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 J.Daniels) 11 yard from NSU23 to NSU12Similar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
99.2%
(11:58) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #11 B.Caldwell caught at NSU14, for 7 yards to the NSU19 (#11 M.Marcellus; #8 C.Ellis)Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+11
99.2%
(11:31) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #0 E.Mitchell caught at NSU25, for 11 yards to the NSU30 (#5 K.Robinson; #8 C.Ellis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.2%
(10:55) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #0 E.Mitchell thrown to NSU46 broken up by #10 J.HendersonSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.2%
(10:51) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush right for 4 yards gain to the NSU34 (#10 J.Henderson; #44 D.Henry-Young)Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+14
99.2%
(10:05) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 R.Moore Jr caught at NSU32, for 14 yards to the NSU48 (#10 J.Henderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
99.1%
(09:29) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete deep middle to #1 P.Billups II caught at UVA20, for 32 yards to the UVA20 (#10 J.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.0%
(08:43) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush right for 3 yards gain to the UVA17 (#5 K.Robinson)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
98.9%
(08:01) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA14 (#55 A.Britton; #23 J.Jones)Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
99.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Caldwell thrown to UVA10 broken up by #30 E.MinterSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
99.0%
(07:14) #97 M.Peery field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 E.Helfrich, LS: #49 B.Heffron), clock 07:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3999% → 99%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.4%
(07:09) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UVA28 (#15 R.Perry)Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
99.4%
(06:40) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UVA38 (#1 J.Saunders; #5 S.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.4%
(06:21) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass intercepted by #4 J.Davis at UVA36 broken up by #98 Q.Goins, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 11FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:001% → 2%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
98.9%
(06:19) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #0 E.Mitchell caught at UVA24, for 12 yards to the UVA24, out of bounds at UVA24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.9%
(05:39) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #82 J.Stevens thrown to UVA26 QB hurried by #14 F.CamacSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.9%
(05:37) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey rush left for 1 yard loss to the UVA25 (#13 M.Brown; #88 K.Choute)Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+4
99.0%
(04:49) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 R.Moore Jr caught at UVA26, for 4 yards to the UVA21 (#10 J.Henderson)Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+40
98.2%
(04:07) #97 M.Peery field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #37 E.Helfrich, LS: #49 B.Heffron), clock 04:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.1%
(03:56) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #8 T.Coleman caught at UVA26, for 6 yards to the UVA26 (#2 N.Bashir)Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
99.1%
(03:26) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 11 yards gain to the UVA37 (#13 B.Thompson; #2 N.Bashir), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.1%
(03:04) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush middle for 21 yards gain to the NSU42 (#0 B.Blake), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.1%
(02:41) Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #3 N.Vaughn caught at NSU38, for 6 yards to the NSU36 (#0 B.Blake)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+14
98.8%
(02:00) #18 D.Martin rush left for 14 yards gain to the NSU22 (#2 N.Bashir; #24 J.Williams), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NSU Personal Foul (#5 S.Hall) 11 yard from NSU22 to NSU11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
98.9%
(01:49) #2 P.Lewis rush left for 8 yards gain to the NSU03 (#12 J.Henry; #1 J.Saunders)Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
(01:06) #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
98.9%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete short right to #80 R.Ciocca caught at NSU18, for 7 yards to the NSU18 (#8 C.Ellis)Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 3
OWN 18
-2
98.7%
(00:36) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NSU15 (#14 F.Camac, #16 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+5
99.5%
(00:02) Shotgun #2 D.Bailey rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NSU20 (#14 F.Camac; #44 D.Henry-Young)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
(14:50) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass complete short right to #21 J.Middlebrook caught at UVA41, for 5 yards to the UVA46 (#9 J.Martin)Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
99.5%
(14:27) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 1 yard gain to the UVA47 (#2 N.Bashir; #11 C.Turner). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (14:27) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush right for 6 yards gain to the NSU48 (#2 N.Bashir; #11 C.Turner), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+7
99.5%
(13:51) Shotgun #21 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NSU46 (#1 J.Saunders; #98 Q.Goins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
(13:14) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass incomplete short middle to #5 K.Courtney thrown to NSU35 QB hurried by #4 J.DavisSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.6%
(13:09) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush left for 11 yards gain to the NSU35 (#1 J.Saunders; #20 I.Emery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.6%
(12:37) Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush right for 6 yards gain to the NSU29 (#9 J.Martin)Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+13
99.6%
(11:54) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush right for 13 yards gain to the NSU16 (#1 J.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.6%
(11:27) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 15 yards gain to the NSU01 (#11 C.Turner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
(10:57) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass complete short right to #8 T.Coleman caught at NSU00, for 1 yard to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:57 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(10:54) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Caldwell thrown to NSU24Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
(10:52) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush left for 9 yards gain to the NSU34 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.7%
(10:28) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush middle for 0 yards to the NSU34 (#44 D.Henry-Young; #55 A.Britton)Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.7%
(09:56) Shotgun #3 J.Daniels rush right for 2 yards loss to the NSU32 (#20 O.Agard; #33 N.Anyanwu), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
99.8%
(09:50) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 11 yards gain to the NSU21 (#13 B.Thompson; #1 J.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.8%
(09:15) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 1 yard gain to the NSU20 (#13 B.Thompson; #19 P.Toxey)Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+16
99.9%
(08:39) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass complete short right to #81 T.Kirby caught at NSU10, for 16 yards to the NSU04 (#10 D.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
(08:00) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NSU05 (#15 R.Perry)Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
(07:24) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass complete short left to #11 I.Robinson caught at NSU06, for 5 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:21 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(07:19) Shotgun #7 R.Moore Jr rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NSU26 (#85 J.Hayes; #13 M.Brown)Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
(06:52) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Knox thrown to NSU33 broken up by #92 J.AllenSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
(06:50) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass incomplete deep left to #16 D.Golmond thrown to UVA29 broken up by #1 M.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
(06:38) #97 M.Peery punt 35 yards to the UVA39 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
99.9%
(06:32) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush right for 3 yards loss to the UVA36 (#4 J.Davis)Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
(05:57) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein rush left for 2 yards gain to the UVA38 (#4 J.Davis; #20 I.Emery)Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
99.9%
(05:15) Shotgun #10 E.Holstein pass incomplete short right to #80 T.Ladd thrown to UVA48 broken up by #3 T.LapradeSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
99.9%
(05:12) #38 D.Sparks punt 61 yards to the NSU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.9%
(05:00) #6 D.Golmond rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NSU04 (#13 M.Brown; #85 J.Hayes)Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-1
99.9%
(04:26) #28 K.Casnave rush left for 1 yard loss to the NSU03 (#13 M.Brown; #26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+1
99.9%
(03:41) #6 D.Golmond rush right for 1 yard gain to the NSU04 (#85 J.Hayes; #26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+7
99.9%
(02:59) #97 M.Peery punt 33 yards to the NSU37 #13 J.Abdullah return 7 yards to the NSU30 (#84 B.Hayes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
(02:42) Shotgun #6 C.Geer rush left for 3 yards gain to the NSU27 (#13 B.Thompson)Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
(02:00) #25 X.Davis rush right for 6 yards gain to the NSU21 (#15 R.Perry; #5 S.Hall)Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
(01:22) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NSU13 (#1 J.Saunders; #4 J.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
99.9%
(00:47) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 2 yards loss to the NSU15 (#13 B.Thompson; #96 J.Pegha)Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
(00:07) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush left for 3 yards gain to the NSU12 (#52 E.Allen; #35 K.Robinson Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 C.Geer pass complete short right to #94 H.Rollison caught at NSU08, for 12 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
99.9%
(14:48) Shotgun #28 K.Casnave rush right for 2 yards loss to the NSU13 (#45 J.Rowe; #7 J.Persinger)Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+9
99.9%
(14:17) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass complete short middle to #5 J.Knox caught at NSU22, for 9 yards to the NSU22 (#21 K.Adams)Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+11
99.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass complete short left to #22 K.Benjamin caught at NSU21, for 11 yards to the NSU33 (#9 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
99.9%
(12:59) Shotgun #22 K.Benjamin rush left for 3 yards loss to the NSU30 (#36 J.Townsend)Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
(12:21) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NSU35 (#45 J.Rowe; #93 B.Koudelka)Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
99.9%
(11:43) Shotgun #6 D.Golmond pass incomplete short left to #16 D.Golmond thrown to NSU42 QB hurried by #36 J.TownsendSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
100.0%
(11:38) #97 M.Peery punt 32 yards to the UVA33, out of bounds at UVA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
(11:31) Shotgun #6 C.Geer pass incomplete short left to #29 C.Spence thrown to UVA41Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 2 yards gain to the UVA35 (#96 J.Pegha)Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+28
99.9%
(10:54) Shotgun #6 C.Geer pass complete deep middle to #83 W.Thurber caught at NSU39, for 28 yards to the NSU37 (#0 B.Blake), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
100.0%
(10:10) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 6 yards gain to the NSU31 (#44 C.Sain; #20 I.Emery)Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+13
100.0%
(09:34) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 13 yards gain to the NSU18 (#35 K.Robinson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
100.0%
(08:55) Shotgun #6 C.Geer rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NSU12 (#0 B.Blake)Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
100.0%
(08:14) Shotgun #3 N.Vaughn rush right for 0 yards to the NSU12 (#96 J.Pegha)Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
100.0%
(07:31) Shotgun #6 C.Geer pass incomplete short right to #29 C.Spence thrown to NSU00Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
100.0%
(07:24) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #39 Z.Christinat), clock 07:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 23INT TD
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(07:19) Shotgun #28 K.Casnave rush right for 2 yards gain to the NSU27 (#28 D.Brannon; #19 E.Ward)Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
(06:45) Shotgun #10 T.Jackson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NSU34 (#34 K.Chadwick Jr.; #45 J.Rowe)Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
(06:12) Shotgun #28 K.Casnave rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NSU37 (#47 G.Sneed; #45 J.Rowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
100.0%
(05:41) Shotgun #10 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #32 S.Kelley caught at NSU43, for 6 yards to the NSU43 (#0 J.Morris), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
(05:10) Shotgun #10 T.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the NSU44 (#85 J.Hayes)Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-50
100.0%
(04:27) Shotgun #10 T.Jackson pass intercepted by #45 J.Rowe at NSU50 #45 J.Rowe return 50 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:17 #43 C.Messmore kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
100.0%
(04:08) Shotgun #28 K.Casnave rush left for 4 yards gain to the NSU22 (#31 P.Campbell)Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-1
100.0%
(03:29) Shotgun #28 K.Casnave rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NSU21 (#93 B.Koudelka; #36 J.Townsend)Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
100.0%
(02:46) Shotgun #10 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #84 B.Hayes thrown to UVA42Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
100.0%
(02:38) #97 M.Peery punt 40 yards to the UVA39 fair catch by #13 J.Abdullah at UVA39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
100.0%
(02:32) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UVA46 (#39 M.McGodfred)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+44
100.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 44 yards gain to the NSU10 (#33 E.Mills; #36 P.Surtain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
100.0%
(01:16) Kneel down by Virginia at NSU12 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
100.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by Virginia at NSU14 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 4:05
(04:07) #97 M.Peery field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #37 E.Helfrich, LS: #49 B.Heffron), clock 04:05
-0.8
FG · Q2 4:05
Timeout Norfolk State, clock 04:05
+0.6
TD · Q2 1:04
(01:06) #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #50 W.Rubinoff)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com