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DUKE

Duke 31 at Illinois 27

ILL
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:49 · (01:53) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL27 (#7 M.Bailey; #26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense−28.3Garbage-time factor−11.4Score differential−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:05: (07:09) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +9.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: (01:50) #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE00, for 2 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +7.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: (00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL05, for 7 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:38 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +8.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 5:08: (05:08) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 05:08 — ILL win probability +4.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. FG · Q4 13:53: (13:53) #39 C.Salas field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 13:53 — DUKE win probability +10.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 3:41ILL 4th & 8 at DUKE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:36DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 20, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:47ILL 4th & 1 at DUKE 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−1.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:41DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04ILL 4th & 5 at DUKE 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:08ILL 4th & 5 at DUKE 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−8.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:53DUKE 4th & 9 at ILL 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−15.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:38ILL 4th & 2 at DUKE 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−15.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:14DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−4.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:13DUKE 4th & 9 at ILL 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−2.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:54ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.0%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:49DUKE 4th & 1 at ILL 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−4.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−13.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:23ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:28DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:47ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:05DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:48ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:38DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3269% → 71%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.1%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 2 yards gain to the ILL27 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
69.1%
(14:32) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL33, for 10 yards to the ILL37 (#0 D.Flowers; #35 A.Pellicciotta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
69.0%
(13:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL45, for 8 yards to the ILL45 (#0 D.Flowers)Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
69.1%
(13:26) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at DUKE47, for 10 yards to the DUKE45 (#8 D.Stone; #35 A.Pellicciotta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
69.1%
(12:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to DUKE10 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference declined DUKE Roughing The Passer (#91 O.Wafle) 15 yards from DUKE45 to DUKE30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
69.2%
(12:47) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DUKE24 (#7 N.Morris Jr.) PENALTY ILL Holding (#86 C.Abney) 10 yards from DUKE30 to DUKE40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+5
69.0%
(12:26) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 5 yards gain to the DUKE35 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+8
69.0%
(11:51) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 8 yards gain to the DUKE27 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
69.0%
(11:11) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #88 D.Stoffel caught at DUKE16, for 14 yards to the DUKE13 (#2 P.Smith-Young; #8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
70.5%
(10:28) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE00, for 13 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4430% → 33%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE25 (#10 J.Kreutz; #96 D.Prater)Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
70.0%
(09:50) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 12 yards gain to the DUKE37 (#1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWN. #0 M.Resetich injured on the playSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
70.0%
(09:23) Shotgun #2 W.Eget sacked for loss of 5 yards to the DUKE32 (#52 P.Farrell) PENALTY ILL Holding (#6 J.Clarke) 10 yards from DUKE37 to DUKE47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
69.8%
(08:49) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 30 yards gain (29) to the ILL23 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Face Mask (#9 L.Williams) 12 yards from ILL24 to ILL12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
67.4%
(08:34) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at ILL00, for 12 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:28, 1ST DOWN. ILL is challenging the ruling on the field - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:3968% → 69%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.3%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 7 yards gain to the ILL32 (#12 B.Davis)Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
68.6%
(07:58) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #5 C.Valentine caught at ILL30, for 9 yards to the ILL41 (#0 D.Flowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
68.3%
(07:07) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 5 yards gain to the ILL46 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
68.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #83 K.Feagin thrown to DUKE25Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
68.2%
(06:26) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE47, for 8 yards to the DUKE46 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
68.6%
(05:47) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 3 yards gain to the DUKE43 (#8 D.Stone)Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+9
68.6%
(05:11) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 9 yards gain to the DUKE34 (#2 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.8%
(04:31) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to DUKE00Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.7%
(04:25) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE32 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
68.3%
(03:50) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #83 K.Feagin thrown to DUKE29Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+51
68.6%
(03:45) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 03:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5431% → 31%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
68.9%
(03:37) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 3 yards loss to the DUKE09 (#10 J.Kreutz; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+2
69.0%
(03:01) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUKE11 (#6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+9
69.1%
(02:17) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 9 yards gain to the DUKE20 (#26 I.Kante; #33 G.Beerman)Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
69.3%
(01:43) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 52 yards to the ILL28, out of bounds at ILL28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4168% → 72%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
68.0%
(01:35) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL33 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-10
68.5%
(01:00) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 2 yards gain (-10) to the ILL35 (#12 B.Davis), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Holding (#71 N.Knapik) DUKE Personal Foul (#7 N.Morris Jr.) 25 yards from ILL33 to ILL38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
68.5%
(00:10) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL42 (#1 K.Loud; #7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
68.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 9 yards gain to the DUKE49 (#9 C.Ojarikre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.2%
(14:24) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #13 H.Clement thrown to DUKE35Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
69.0%
(14:17) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL49, for 8 yards to the DUKE41 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
69.0%
(13:34) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE40 (#44 D.Anderson; #95 P.Watson)Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
72.4%
(12:53) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE18, for 40 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3326% → 36%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
73.8%
(12:47) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 14 yards gain to the DUKE39 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.1%
(12:15) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the DUKE39 (#6 J.Clarke; #24 W.Holmes)Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
73.2%
(11:32) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at DUKE38, for 9 yards to the DUKE48 (#0 M.Resetich). #0 M.Resetich injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
73.1%
(11:05) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUKE49 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUKE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#17 J.Richardson) 15 yards from DUKE49 to DUKE34Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
73.9%
(10:48) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the DUKE42 (#5 J.Morris). The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (10:48) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the DUKE42 (#5 J.Morris) PENALTY ILL Targeting (#7 M.Bailey) 15 yards from DUKE42 to ILL43, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
73.4%
(10:18) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #15 J.Taylor thrown to ILL15Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-2
73.4%
(10:17) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the DUKE40 (#24 W.Holmes; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+15
75.0%
(09:48) #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 15 yards gain to the ILL45 (#17 C.Dixon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
73.5%
(09:10) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 2 yards gain to the ILL43 (#40 E.Rhea)Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+22
73.7%
(08:33) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #7 K.Simmons caught at ILL26, for 22 yards to the ILL21, out of bounds at ILL21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
72.9%
(07:57) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 19 yards gain to the ILL02 (#5 J.Morris; #54 D.John), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.9%
(07:09) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0568% → 77%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.4%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL34, for 9 yards to the ILL34 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
69.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL39 (#12 B.Davis; #42 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.6%
(05:59) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL42 (#55 J.Columbus)Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
70.3%
(05:25) #21 A.Laughery rush right for 3 yards gain to the ILL45 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
69.6%
(04:49) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL48 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference (#0 D.Flowers) 3 yards from ILL45 to ILL48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
70.6%
(04:44) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #21 A.Laughery caught at ILL47, for 6 yards to the DUKE46 (#44 D.Anderson)Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
70.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 7 yards gain to the DUKE39 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
71.0%
(03:32) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 6 yards gain to the DUKE33 (#7 N.Morris Jr.; #18 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+30
70.9%
(02:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE03, for 30 yards to the DUKE03 (#3 L.Callahan; #8 D.Stone), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.0%
(02:16) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE02 (#0 D.Flowers; #7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at DUKE02, for 0 yards to the DUKE02 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.4%
(01:50) #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE00, for 2 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:0322% → 33%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.5%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 12 yards gain to the DUKE37 (#7 M.Bailey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
78.0%
(01:40) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE35, for 7 yards to the DUKE44 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+36
76.4%
(01:09) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #6 J.Burton caught at ILL20, for 36 yards to the ILL20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.9%
(01:04) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #85 J.Hasley thrown to ILL00Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
74.7%
(01:02) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #15 J.Taylor thrown to ILL10Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
75.8%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL20, for 11 yards to the ILL09 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
74.3%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL07 (#96 D.Prater)Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.7%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL05, for 7 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:38 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:2069% → 70%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
68.9%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at DUKE49, for 16 yards to the DUKE49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.8%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to DUKE35Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
71.4%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #10 T.Robinson caught at DUKE50, for 5 yards to the DUKE44 (#2 P.Smith-Young)Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
71.2%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+62
69.9%
(00:04) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 62 yards NO GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 00:00, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0833% → 51%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE27 (#0 M.Resetich)Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
54.6%
(14:27) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE29, End Of Play PENALTY ILL Face Mask (#45 R.Edmonson) 15 yards from DUKE29 to DUKE44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
52.5%
(14:10) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 5 yards gain to the DUKE49 (#33 G.Beerman; #52 P.Farrell)Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+35
51.9%
(13:32) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at ILL32, for 35 yards to the ILL16 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
50.1%
(13:07) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 8 yards gain to the ILL08 (#6 J.Clarke; #33 G.Beerman)Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
49.8%
(12:27) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #85 J.Hasley thrown to ILL05 broken up by #0 M.ResetichSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
51.1%
(12:22) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL07 (#90 C.Janki)Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
52.4%
(11:38) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL07 (#6 J.Clarke) PENALTY ILL Offside (#24 W.Holmes) 4 yards from ILL07 to ILL03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.1%
(11:29) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 0 yards to the ILL03 (#43 J.Barna; #45 R.Edmonson)Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.7%
(10:52) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL06, for 3 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:3054% → 60%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.3%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL33, for 9 yards to the ILL34 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
56.6%
(10:14) #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL36 (#12 B.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
54.7%
(09:37) #5 C.Valentine rush right for 8 yards gain to the ILL44 (#1 K.Loud)Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
57.0%
(09:00) #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #86 C.Abney caught at ILL45, for 1 yard to the ILL45 (#12 B.Davis)Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+9
55.8%
(08:22) #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL43, for 9 yards to the DUKE46 (#0 D.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
56.1%
(07:45) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at DUKE39, for 8 yards to the DUKE38 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
55.9%
(07:06) #4 K.Houser rush left for 4 yards gain to the DUKE34 (#42 K.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.6%
(06:26) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Laughery thrown to DUKE37Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
57.6%
(06:21) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUKE29 (#2 P.Smith-Young) PENALTY ILL Holding (#66 B.Hansen) 10 yards from DUKE34 to DUKE44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+15
52.8%
(06:04) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at DUKE29, for 15 yards to the DUKE29 (#1 K.Loud)Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
55.2%
(05:17) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #13 H.Clement thrown to DUKE25Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
59.7%
(05:08) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 05:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 6:0246% → 62%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.5%
(05:07) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at DUKE20, for 11 yards to the DUKE36 (#45 R.Edmonson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
52.5%
(04:30) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 5 yards gain to the DUKE41 (#33 G.Beerman)Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+13
50.5%
(03:51) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DUKE40, for 13 yards to the ILL46 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
49.3%
(03:06) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ILL37 (#24 W.Holmes; #40 E.Rhea)Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
48.5%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (#77 B.Miller) 5 yards from ILL37 to ILL42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+19
48.8%
(02:07) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #6 J.Burton caught at ILL37, for 19 yards to the ILL23 (#1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
46.5%
(01:47) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the ILL20 (#0 M.Resetich) PENALTY DUKE Holding (#56 N.Del Grande) 10 yards from ILL23 to ILL33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+10
47.4%
(01:26) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL29 (#26 I.Kante) PENALTY DUKE Holding (#77 B.Miller) 10 yards from ILL33 to ILL43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 30
OPP 43
+7
49.5%
(01:07) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL41, for 7 yards to the ILL36 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 23
OPP 36
+11
49.4%
(00:23) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #15 J.Taylor caught at ILL26, for 11 yards to the ILL25 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+13
47.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #44 N.Kurisky caught at ILL26, for 3 yards to the ILL22 (#0 M.Resetich; #32 T.Cox) PENALTY DUKE Illegal Block in Back (#56 N.Del Grande) 10 yards from ILL22 to ILL32Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+10
48.8%
(14:20) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ILL22 (#1 X.Scott; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
38.1%
(13:53) #39 C.Salas field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 13:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1544% → 42%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
44.1%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Laughery thrown to ILL35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference (#42 K.Johnson) 14 yards from ILL25 to ILL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
46.1%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL44, for 22 yards to the DUKE39 (#0 D.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
49.5%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #10 T.Robinson caught at DUKE34, for 8 yards to the DUKE31 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+1
51.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUKE30 (#8 D.Stone). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE29 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
48.5%
(11:48) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUKE26 (#7 N.Morris Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
50.9%
(11:21) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUKE24 (#4 E.Smith)Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+2
50.6%
(10:45) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUKE22 (#7 N.Morris Jr.; #99 D.Quiñonez). #55 T.McMillen injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+4
45.4%
(10:19) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUKE18 (#1 K.Loud)Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
41.8%
(09:42) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to DUKE00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1766% → 65%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
33.6%
(09:37) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Moore thrown to DUKE36 broken up by #1 X.ScottSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
34.0%
(09:30) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the DUKE18 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
34.6%
(08:46) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #7 K.Simmons thrown to DUKE36. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:46) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #7 K.Simmons caught at DUKE36, for 18 yards to the DUKE36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+14
35.1%
(08:18) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 51 yards to the ILL31 #0 M.Resetich return 14 yards to the ILL45 (#10 T.Reed; #42 K.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4742% → 39%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
42.2%
(08:12) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL47 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
42.5%
(07:35) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #83 K.Feagin thrown to DUKE43 broken up by #42 K.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-19
38.5%
(07:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass intercepted by #4 E.Smith at DUKE36 #4 E.Smith return 19 yards to the ILL45, out of bounds at ILL45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0276% → 74%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
23.7%
(07:19) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL42 (#96 D.Prater). #43 J.Barna injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
22.7%
(06:57) Shotgun #2 W.Eget sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ILL44 (#24 W.Holmes), fumble by #2 W.Eget recovered by DUKE #15 J.Taylor at ILL44, End Of Play. #2 W.Eget injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
22.8%
(06:24) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan pass incomplete short right to #20 N.Sheppard thrown to ILL49Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
26.0%
(06:19) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 44 yards to the ILL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:1232% → 30%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.4%
(06:11) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL21 (#34 L.Mergott; #95 P.Watson)Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
31.3%
(05:40) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL29, for 11 yards to the ILL32 (#4 E.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
35.0%
(05:01) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ILL38 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
38.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL39 (#12 B.Davis)Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-1
35.3%
(03:42) #5 C.Valentine rush right for 1 yard loss to the ILL38 (#10 T.Reed)Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
30.4%
(02:57) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL40 broken up by #1 K.Loud, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 0 yds · 2:0887% → 95%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
12.8%
(02:53) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL35 (#1 X.Scott; #6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
10.0%
(02:08) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 4 yards gain to the ILL31 (#96 D.Prater; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
9.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL29 (#24 W.Holmes)Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
10.2%
(01:53) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL27 (#7 M.Bailey; #26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
6.8%
(01:23) Kneel down by Duke at ILL28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+5
4.7%
(00:42) PENALTY DUKE False Start (#72 M.Craycraft) 5 yards from ILL28 to ILL33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 16
OPP 33
-5
4.8%
(00:40) Kneel down by Duke at ILL38 for loss of 5 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 13:53
(13:53) #39 C.Salas field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 13:53
-10.8
TD · Q2 7:05
(07:09) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)
-9.8
TD · Q2 0:38
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at ILL05, for 7 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:38 #39 C.Salas kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com