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SMU

SMU 27 at Florida State 24

FSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 7, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:05 · Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior−6.0Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:35: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — SMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:08: Ousmane Kromah 6 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick) — FSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:37: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 79 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — SMU win probability +23.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:17: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Gabe Panikowski KICK) — FSU win probability +30.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:21: Nick Reed 20 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +38.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30FSU 4th & 3 at SMU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:45SMU 4th & 10 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:05FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:58FSU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:49SMU 4th & 5 at FSU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:31FSU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:47FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:48FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:30FSU 4th & 2 at SMU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−2.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−14.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:28SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:42FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:56FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−12.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:21SMU 4th & 1 at FSU 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%−7.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−41.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:32SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:55FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:35SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:37SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:17FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:2659% → 59%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
41.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 19 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
41.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 6 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+14
41.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 14 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
41.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Hale for 6 yds to the FSU 25 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the FSU 35Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 14
OPP 35
+4
41.5%
Jalen Hale run for 4 yds to the FSU 31 Jalen Hale fumbled, recovered by FSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5542% → 42%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
41.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-3
42.1%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Jimmy Wyrick for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 29Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
41.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Landen ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+45
41.8%
Daniel Hughes punt for 45 yds , Yamir Knight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1658% → 60%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.2%
Dramekco Green run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
42.0%
Dramekco Green run for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
42.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dramekco Green for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
42.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
42.1%
Dramekco Green run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
50
+50
40.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 50 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2540% → 47%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jayvan Boggs for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
40.5%
Ousmane Kromah run for 11 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
40.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Micahi Danzy for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+16
40.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Duce Robinson for 16 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
41.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 8 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
41.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-2
41.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+5
40.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jayvan Boggs for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
41.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
41.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
41.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 7 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
42.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
41.0%
SMU Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
46.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Panikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:4556% → 55%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.4%
Dramekco Green run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+30
45.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 30 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
43.1%
Dramekco Green run for 1 yd to the FSU 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
43.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+8
43.4%
Dramekco Green run for 8 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
42.8%
Kevin Jennings run for 9 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+3
42.7%
Dramekco Green run for 3 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
42.8%
Dramekco Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+4
43.8%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the FSU 21Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
43.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
45.2%
Nick Reed 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0947% → 48%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
46.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
46.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jayvan Boggs for 15 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the FSU 37Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
47.7%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 7 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
48.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the FSU 45Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-2
48.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0556% → 66%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
43.7%
Dramekco Green run for 3 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-3
42.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 43Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
43.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 11 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
42.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 7 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+15
42.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 15 yds to the FSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
42.0%
Dramekco Green run for 5 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
41.4%
SMU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the FSU 10Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
42.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
34.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:2237% → 43%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
36.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 54 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
40.6%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
40.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
39.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
43.4%
Gabe Panikowski 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:2659% → 68%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+64
40.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Hale for 64 yds to the FSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
37.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
36.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
32.2%
Nick Reed 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:4936% → 36%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
36.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 9 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
38.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 5 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Micahi DanzySimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
36.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 1 yd to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+6
35.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 3
50
0
35.8%
Daniel Hughes punt for 33 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:2567% → 69%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
32.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 23 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
30.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5335% → 33%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.5%
Ousmane Kromah run for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
35.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-9
35.1%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 30Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+10
32.5%
Daniel Hughes punt for 42 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 10 yds to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5669% → 71%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
31.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 23 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
30.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 11 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
29.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for no gain to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
29.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 18 yds to the FSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
29.1%
Dramekco Green run for 6 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
28.9%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 6Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
29.5%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Nehemiah Chandler return for 3 yds to the FSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2233% → 31%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
33.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the FSU 10Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+6
33.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 6 yds to the FSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
33.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
33.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the FSU 21Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
31.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+49
31.2%
Daniel Hughes punt for 49 yds , Yamir Knight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29 Yamir Knight fumbled, recovered by FSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:2239% → 59%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
39.1%
Ousmane Kromah run for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-2
39.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
37.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
34.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
38.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-2
38.7%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+3
36.6%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+2
33.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 2 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.8%
Ousmane Kromah 6 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3252% → 49%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
48.5%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete, PENALTY SMU holding 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
48.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
48.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 8 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
46.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
48.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+11
51.0%
Wade McSparron punt for 49 yds , Jasen Lopez returns for 11 yds to the FSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1853% → 53%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
53.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 12 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for 4 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
57.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
55.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
52.7%
Daniel Hughes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:4851% → 76%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
49.1%
Dramekco Green run for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-1
48.3%
Dramekco Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+79
24.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 79 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5827% → 60%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.5%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
27.1%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
26.0%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Robinson, Duce, PENALTY SMU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY FLORIDAST Tripping off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
25.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
25.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 38Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+21
26.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 21 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
30.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
30.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-5
29.8%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+39
59.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Gabe Panikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2750% → 57%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
47.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
43.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
43.1%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Ashlynd Barker return for no gain to the FSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2455% → 51%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
55.2%
Ousmane Kromah run for 1 yd to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
54.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Landen ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-8
52.8%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 15Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
50.7%
Daniel Hughes punt for 59 yds, downed at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:2451% → 94%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
48.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 13 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
45.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
42.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-9
43.5%
Raphael, Kendrick rush for 27 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY SMU holding 9 yards to the SMU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+29
48.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dramekco Green for 29 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
38.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 8 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
37.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
38.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the FSU 6Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
39.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the FSU 3Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+20
6.0%
Nick Reed 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1718% → 14%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+34
13.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 34 yds to the SMU 48 Duce Robinson Duce Robinson fumbled, recovered by SMUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:21
Nick Reed 20 yd FG GOOD
-38.2
TD · Q4 8:17
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Gabe Panikowski KICK)
+30
TD · Q3 2:08
Ousmane Kromah 6 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)
+25.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com