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M-OH

Miami (OH) 14 at Pittsburgh 59

PITT
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:08 · (11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at Pitt31, for 10 yards to the Pitt31 (#0 B.Lovelace), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+28.1Home team on offense+11.5Score differential+8.2Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:09: Elijah Lagg 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick) — PITT win probability +2.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:29: No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29 #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt) #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +5.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:44: M. Heintschel pass to J. Turner for 45 yds, for a TD (A. Chadha KICK) — PITT win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:34: D. McComb pass to D. Witten for 75 yds, for a TD (K. McLaughlin KICK) — M-OH win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:26: (13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep right to #3 C.Hicks caught at Miami25, for 53 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:26, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt) — PITT win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06M-OH 4th & 4 at PITT 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08M-OH 4th & 9 at PITT 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:20PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55M-OH 4th & 30 at M-OH 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01M-OH 4th & 10 at PITT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:48M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 37, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50M-OH 4th & 22 at M-OH 13, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:19M-OH 4th & 10 at PITT 47, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:50PITT 4th & 1 at M-OH 10, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:06PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:29M-OH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:44PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:34M-OH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:26PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:43PITT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:24PITT Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4012% → 12%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.8%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left thrown to Pitt40 QB hurried by #11 N.JamesSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
87.8%
(14:44) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to Pitt27Similar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.7%
(14:39) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #1 M.Huggins caught at Pitt39, for 6 yards to the Pitt39 (#14 J.Guerrier), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
87.6%
(14:11) #34 P.Stainton punt 39 yards to the Pitt00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5388% → 88%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.6%
(14:04) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 0 yards to the Pitt20 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.4%
(13:30) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #9 J.Turner caught at Pitt20, for 4 yards to the Pitt24 (#8 C.Young)Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
87.2%
(12:54) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #9 J.Turner caught at Pitt25, for 6 yards to the Pitt30 (#0 A.Knighten), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Miami Face Mask (#0 A.Knighten) 15 yards from Pitt30 to Pitt45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
87.2%
(12:23) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt49 (#3 M.McCain; #8 C.Young)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
87.1%
(11:52) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #7 M.Knight thrown to Miami33 broken up by #15 B.MyrickSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
87.1%
(11:45) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #86 C.Kent caught at Miami44, for 9 yards to the Miami42 (#8 C.Young; #26 E.Coppess) PENALTY Pitt Illegal Motion (#7 M.Knight) 5 yards from Pitt49 to Pitt44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+31
86.6%
(11:11) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep left to #10 C.Lee caught at Miami25, for 31 yards to the Miami25 (#17 B.Minich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
86.8%
M. Heintschel pass to C. LeeSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
86.8%
(10:06) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #10 C.Lee caught at Miami25, for 8 yards to the Miami17 (#4 B.Rice)Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
87.6%
(10:06) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #7 M.Knight caught at Miami14, for 17 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3913% → 13%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.2%
(10:02) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at Miami22, for 5 yards to the Miami30 (#14 J.Guerrier), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
87.1%
PENALTY Miami False Start (#54 E.Malcore) 5 yards from Miami30 to Miami25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.2%
(09:04) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the Miami27 (#32 J.Marcelin; #10 A.Sanford)Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.2%
(08:30) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to Miami46Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
87.3%
(08:23) #34 P.Stainton punt 62 yards to the Pitt11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:1087% → 89%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
87.1%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #10 C.Lee caught at Pitt16, for 5 yards to the Pitt16 (#28 L.Colombi), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+12
87.1%
(07:53) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt27, for 12 yards to the Pitt28 (#1 D.Tatum), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
87.0%
(07:27) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt35, for 7 yards to the Pitt35 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
87.0%
(06:43) Shotgun Pitt rush right for 0 yards to the Pitt35 fumbled by Pitt at Pitt34 recovered by Pitt #10 C.Lee at Pitt35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+10
86.9%
(06:01) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt39, for 5 yards to the Pitt40 QB hurried by #92 R.Andrews and #22 B.Jobe (#3 M.McCain) PENALTY Miami Holding (#1 D.Tatum) 10 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.1%
(05:35) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt50 (#12 K.Martin)Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
50
0
87.1%
(05:03) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Miami35Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 5
50
+50
89.0%
(05:02) Shotgun #5 J.Cook rush left for 50 yards gain to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:55, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5012% → 12%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.3%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #8 D.Witten thrown to Pitt43 QB hurried by #0 B.LovelaceSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
88.4%
PENALTY Pitt Offside (#9 J.Warren) 5 yards from Miami27 to Miami32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
88.3%
(04:41) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to Miami30Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+1
88.2%
(04:38) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at Miami31, for 1 yard to the Miami33 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
88.4%
(03:56) #34 P.Stainton punt 17 yards to the Miami50, out of bounds at Miami50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:3889% → 92%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
50
+3
89.3%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the Miami47 (#26 E.Coppess; #24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
89.3%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at Miami44, for 4 yards to the Miami43 (#3 M.McCain; #26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+14
89.1%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 14 yards gain to the Miami29 (#17 B.Minich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.4%
(01:55) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 3 yards gain to the Miami26 (#26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+7
89.5%
(01:19) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush right for 7 yards gain to the Miami19 (#26 E.Coppess), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
89.5%
(00:53) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #9 J.Turner caught at Miami15, for 14 yards to the Miami05 (#0 A.Knighten; #17 B.Minich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.3%
Elijah Lagg 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:388% → 12%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami26 (#7 D.Ward)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
92.4%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at Miami24, for 2 yards to the Miami28 (#7 D.Ward; #3 S.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
92.6%
PENALTY Miami False Start (#74 G.Smith Jr.) 5 yards from Miami28 to Miami23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
92.7%
(14:07) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #18 B.Isom caught at Miami36, for 18 yards to the Miami41 (#12 C.Brookins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
92.5%
(13:26) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the Miami43 (#7 D.Ward; #2 I.Neal)Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
92.9%
(12:51) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short middle to #8 D.Witten caught at Pitt45, for 15 yards to the Pitt42 (#12 C.Brookins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
92.8%
(12:13) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt41 (#0 B.Lovelace; #32 J.Marcelin)Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
92.9%
(11:39) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #15 C.Ross thrown to Pitt44 broken up by #5 Z.CrothersSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
93.2%
(11:34) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #1 M.Huggins thrown to Pitt10Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+10
93.3%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at Pitt31, for 10 yards to the Pitt31 (#0 B.Lovelace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
92.8%
(10:45) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep middle to #24 S.Smith caught at Pitt08, for 30 yards to the Pitt01 (#3 S.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29 #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt) #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5390% → 89%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
89.8%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt40 (#52 M.Moore Jr)Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
89.8%
(09:45) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #86 C.Kent caught at Pitt45, for 6 yards to the Pitt46 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
89.6%
(09:07) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 0 yards to the Pitt46 (#3 M.McCain; #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
89.4%
(08:27) #98 G.Russo punt 51 yards to the Miami03, out of bounds at Miami03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:5511% → 10%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
89.5%
(10:32) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at Miami10, for 9 yards to the Miami12 (#6 R.Strader)Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+2
89.3%
(07:36) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami14 (#10 A.Sanford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
89.3%
(06:53) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 2 yards loss to the Miami12 (#11 N.James)Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
89.4%
(06:16) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to Miami20 QB hurried by #2 I.NealSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+22
89.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short middle to #18 B.Isom caught at Miami12, for 22 yards to the Miami34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.0%
(05:30) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Jones thrown to Miami31Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
89.2%
(05:26) Shotgun #16 D.McComb sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Miami27 (#11 N.James) PENALTY Miami Personal Foul declinedSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 17
OWN 27
-13
89.6%
(05:05) Shotgun #16 D.McComb sacked for loss of 13 yards to the Miami14 (#2 I.Neal) PENALTY Miami Intentional Grounding (#16 D.McComb)Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 30
OWN 14
0
89.7%
(04:55) #34 P.Stainton punt 31 yards to the Miami45, out of bounds at Miami45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
95.8%
M. Heintschel pass to J. Turner for 45 yds, for a TD (A. Chadha KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
89.3%
D. McComb pass to D. Witten for 75 yds, for a TD (K. McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3689% → 89%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
89.3%
(04:25) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush left for 1 yard gain to the Pitt17 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
89.3%
(03:53) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush left for 10 yards gain to the Pitt27, out of bounds at Pitt27 PENALTY Pitt Holding (#71 R.Carretta) 8 yards from Pitt17 to Pitt09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 17
OWN 9
0
89.1%
(03:44) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Kinsler thrown to Pitt25Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+13
89.1%
(03:40) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt20, for 13 yards to the Pitt22 (#8 C.Young)Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 4
OWN 22
-2
89.1%
(02:46) #98 G.Russo punt 55 yards to the Miami23 #10 L.Billups-Williams return for loss of 2 yards to the Miami21 (#22 B.Hamilton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2510% → 10%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
89.6%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 1 yard gain to the Miami22 (#11 N.James; #55 S.FitzSimmons)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+15
89.7%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at Miami24, for 15 yards to the Miami37 (#5 Z.Crothers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short middle to #18 B.Isom thrown to Pitt45Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
89.6%
(01:22) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #8 D.Witten thrown to Pitt36 PENALTY Pitt Pass Interference (#6 R.Strader) 15 yards from Miami37 to Pitt48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.6%
(01:17) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to Pitt35Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
89.2%
(01:12) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to Pitt30Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
89.5%
(01:08) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #24 S.Smith thrown to Pitt50 QB hurried by #8 J.MooreSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
89.8%
(01:01) #34 P.Stainton punt 48 yards to the Pitt00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 0:5690% → 93%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.4%
(01:01) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #5 J.Cook caught at Pitt27, for 7 yards to the Pitt27, out of bounds at Pitt27Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-3
90.4%
(00:51) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 3 yards to the Pitt24 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
90.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #10 C.Lee caught at Pitt26, for 7 yards to the Pitt31 (#8 C.Young), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.9%
(00:39) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Pitt34Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
90.8%
(00:34) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Pitt38 broken up by #0 A.KnightenSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
90.4%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (#7 M.Knight) 5 yards from Pitt31 to Pitt26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+6
90.1%
(00:27) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt30, for 6 yards to the Pitt32 (#1 D.Tatum), out of bounds PENALTY Miami Personal Foul (#1 D.Tatum) 15 yards from Pitt32 to Pitt47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.8%
(00:20) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle thrown to Pitt50 QB hurried by #35 T.DikosSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
90.7%
(00:15) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #7 M.Knight caught at Miami40, for 14 yards to the Miami39 (#12 K.Martin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.1%
(00:10) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Miami04Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
91.1%
(00:05) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #10 C.Lee thrown to Miami27 broken up by #11 B.UihleinSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+58
93.3%
Antonio Chadha 58 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2992% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #7 M.Knight thrown to Pitt35Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.2%
(14:53) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Pitt35 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.4%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt43, for 9 yards to the Pitt44 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
92.5%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 3 yards gain to the Pitt47 (#1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
96.5%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep right to #3 C.Hicks caught at Miami25, for 53 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:26, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
96.1%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami34 (#55 S.FitzSimmons)Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
96.2%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami37 (#2 I.Neal)Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
96.4%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to Pitt32Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+16
96.4%
(11:59) #34 P.Stainton punt 55 yards to the Pitt08 #3 C.Hicks return 16 yards to the Pitt24 (#30 J.Ringer), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:5997% → 100%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
96.7%
(11:45) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Pitt26 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
96.8%
(11:01) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #17 E.Lagg caught at Pitt29, for 10 yards to the Pitt36 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
96.9%
(10:37) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Pitt45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
97.1%
(10:02) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt49 (#99 O.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
97.2%
(09:18) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Miami41 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.; #8 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.4%
(08:37) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left thrown to Miami38 QB hurried by #17 B.MinichSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.4%
(08:32) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Miami35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+35
99.6%
(07:46) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep left to #10 C.Lee caught at Miami04, for 35 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:43, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:441% → 0%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
(07:41) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at Miami23, for 1 yard to the Miami26 (#7 D.Ward)Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
99.5%
(07:09) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #15 C.Ross thrown to Miami26 QB hurried by #2 I.Neal PENALTY Miami UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#15 C.Ross) 13 yards from Miami26 to Miami13Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
99.6%
(07:02) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short middle thrown to Miami10 broken up by #34 M.Jennings QB hurried by #0 B.Lovelace and #8 J.MooreSimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+49
99.6%
(06:54) #34 P.Stainton punt 49 yards to the Pitt38 #3 C.Hicks return for loss of 1 yard to the Pitt37 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
99.7%
(06:49) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #86 C.Kent caught at Pitt48, for 23 yards to the Miami40 (#0 A.Knighten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.7%
(06:11) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #4 B.Yates caught at Miami29, for 11 yards to the Miami29 (#1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.7%
(05:50) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami27 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
99.7%
(05:28) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep right to #4 B.Yates caught at Miami00, for 27 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24, 1ST DOWN #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.7%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at Miami35, for 18 yards to the Miami43 (#6 R.Strader), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.7%
(04:39) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami45 (#12 C.Brookins; #55 S.FitzSimmons)Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+8
99.8%
(03:55) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at Pitt49, for 8 yards to the Pitt47 (#3 S.Lee Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
(03:16) Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt47 (#7 D.Ward)Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
PENALTY Miami False Start (#18 B.Isom) 5 yards from Pitt47 to Miami48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+5
99.8%
(02:10) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #2 B.Simmons caught at Pitt47, for 5 yards to the Pitt47 (#3 S.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
(01:30) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to Pitt10Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
(01:21) #34 P.Stainton punt 34 yards to the Pitt13 fair catch by #3 C.Hicks at Pitt13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 6:20100% → 100%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
99.8%
(01:16) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 3 yards loss to the Pitt10 (#43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+14
99.8%
(00:41) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt23, for 14 yards to the Pitt24 (#8 C.Young; #3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
(14:57) Shotgun #24 T.Robinson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Pitt26 (#12 K.Martin)Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
(14:19) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #4 B.Yates caught at Pitt30, for 10 yards to the Pitt36 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
(13:54) Shotgun #9 J.Turner rush right for 6 yards gain to the Pitt42 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
(13:20) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #4 B.Yates caught at Pitt46, for 5 yards to the Pitt47 (#52 M.Moore Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
(12:37) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the Pitt47 (#43 G.Lyons; #20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.9%
(11:56) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #17 E.Lagg caught at Miami47, for 8 yards to the Miami45 (#8 C.Young; #2 J.Pons)Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
99.9%
(11:04) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Miami37 (#2 J.Pons; #6 J.Agee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.9%
(10:30) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at Miami16, for 22 yards to the Miami15 (#2 J.Pons; #21 T.Coleman Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
(09:48) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at Miami10, for 15 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #91 S.Hunsaker kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami28 (#20 J.Pittman)Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #3 Q.Simmons Jr. caught at Miami28, for 6 yards to the Miami34 (#22 Z.Ferguson)Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 8 yards gain (4) to the Miami42 (#4 R.Murray) PENALTY Miami Holding (#72 K.Manu) 10 yards from Miami38 to Miami28Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass intercepted by #4 R.Murray at Pitt41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
99.9%
(07:54) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 13 yards gain to the Miami46 (#18 I.Rollins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
(07:20) Shotgun #15 H.Geriner pass complete short right to #87 D.McCray caught at Miami37, for 15 yards to the Miami31 (#28 L.Colombi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
(06:41) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the Miami28 (#39 E.Limouris)Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
(06:03) Shotgun #15 H.Geriner pass complete short right to #87 D.McCray caught at Miami20, for 9 yards to the Miami19 (#18 I.Rollins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
(05:24) Shotgun #15 H.Geriner pass complete short right to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at Miami17, for 3 yards to the Miami16, out of bounds at Miami16Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
(05:12) Shotgun #15 H.Geriner rush left for 5 yards gain to the Miami11 (#2 J.Pons)Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
(04:26) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami10 (#99 O.Alexander; #8 C.Young)Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
99.9%
(03:54) Shotgun #27 J.Brown rush right for 0 yards to the Miami10 (#2 J.Pons; #37 V.McConnell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:370% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
100.0%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 0 yards to the Miami10 (#54 J.Thompson; #93 T.Yuhas)Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
100.0%
(03:07) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 3 yards gain to the Miami13 (#76 L.Hoke; #26 A.Bryant)Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+11
100.0%
(02:25) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 11 yards gain to the Miami24 (#52 A.Ibrahim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
100.0%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 3 yards gain to the Miami27 (#76 L.Hoke)Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
100.0%
(01:13) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 8 yards gain to the Miami35 (#26 A.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
100.0%
(00:40) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short middle to #81 B.Loftus caught at Miami41, for 9 yards to the Miami44 (#15 T.Forney)Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
(00:12) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #81 B.Loftus caught at Miami50, for 6 yards to the Miami50 (#15 T.Forney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:34
D. McComb pass to D. Witten for 75 yds, for a TD (K. McLaughlin KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 4:44
M. Heintschel pass to J. Turner for 45 yds, for a TD (A. Chadha KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 10:29
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29 #48 A.Chadha kick attempt good (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt) #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com