Try the model
MIA

Miami 45 at Stanford 6

STAN
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2026 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:42 · (00:47) #37 A.Flintoft punt 45 yards to the MIA33 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−41.3Home team on offense−5.0Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:57: E. Kenney 30 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +0.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:52: CharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick) — MIA win probability +2.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:55: Daylyn Upshaw 5 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick) — MIA win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:51: Cooper Barkate 34 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick) — MIA win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:24: Malachi Toney 47 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick) — STAN win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:47STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57STAN 4th & 12 at MIA 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:42STAN 4th & 19 at STAN 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:48STAN 4th & 21 at STAN 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:27STAN 4th & 6 at MIA 6, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:22STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 48, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:05STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 20, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:31MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 44, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:22STAN 4th & 5 at MIA 24, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:04STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 23, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:59MIA 4th & 5 at STAN 28, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:07MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:51MIA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:24MIA Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:016% → 6%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
5.7%
(14:53) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #4 J.Onovughe caught at STA25, for 5 yards to the STA25, out of bounds at STA25Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
5.8%
(14:30) No Huddle #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #88 B.Blackburn caught at STA22, for 3 yards to the STA28 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
5.9%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Hall thrown to STA32Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
5.9%
(13:53) #37 A.Flintoft punt 49 yards to the MIA23 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:2794% → 94%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+48
6.0%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA41, for 48 yards to the STA29 (#9 B.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
6.1%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STA27 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
6.2%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at STA23, for 4 yards to the STA23 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
6.1%
Malachi Toney 23 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:096% → 8%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
6.2%
(12:06) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete deep right to #2 Z.Robinson caught at STA46, for 22 yards to the STA47 (#9 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.5%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush right for 0 yards to the STA47 (#18 A.Blount), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
6.6%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #88 B.Blackburn caught at STA49, for 3 yards to the STA50 (#3 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 7
50
+27
6.8%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 27 yards gain to the MIA23 (#3 B.Fitzgerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
6.9%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep right to #11 J.Hall thrown to MIA02 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
7.0%
(10:02) #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #88 B.Blackburn caught at MIA09, for 15 yards to the MIA08 (#1 M.Toure), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
7.1%
(09:21) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA07 (#1 M.Toure; #8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
7.3%
(08:40) Shotgun #8 D.Warren sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MIA12 (#18 A.Blount)Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
7.4%
(08:04) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn thrown to MIA00Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
7.6%
E. Kenney 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5393% → 92%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
7.0%
(07:50) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MIA24 (#57 K.Briehler; #44 E.Cooper)Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
7.2%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA29, for 7 yards to the MIA31 (#9 B.Nicholson; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
7.3%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 D.Upshaw caught at MIA38, for 14 yards to the MIA45 (#39 C.Eckhardt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
7.2%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at STA50, for 12 yards to the STA43 (#4 L.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
7.3%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STA37 (#0 J.Galvan; #39 C.Eckhardt). #5 J.Green injured on the playSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
7.3%
(05:25) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA32 (#4 L.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
7.4%
(04:50) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at STA32, for 19 yards to the STA13 (#39 C.Eckhardt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
7.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA08 (#39 C.Eckhardt; #9 B.Nicholson)Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
7.6%
(03:33) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STA02 (#38 Z.Johnson; #9 B.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.7%
Malachi Toney 2 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -43 yds · 1:598% → 8%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.9%
(02:45) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to STA43Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
7.9%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA32 (#8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
7.8%
PENALTY STA False Start (#89 A.Joseph) 5 yards from STA32 to STA27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+5
7.9%
PENALTY STA Delay Of Game 5 yards from STA27 to STA22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 19
OWN 22
0
7.9%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 0 yards to the STA22 (#8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
7.9%
(00:47) #37 A.Flintoft punt 45 yards to the MIA33 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3892% → 92%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
7.6%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIA38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
7.5%
(00:04) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA38 (#21 S.Edwards; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
7.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to STA31Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
7.6%
(14:55) #94 D.Joyce punt 48 yards to the STA14 fair catch by #13 L.Thorpe at STA14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:468% → 8%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
8.0%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at STA33, for 20 yards to the STA34, out of bounds at STA34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
8.2%
(14:13) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at STA48, for 18 yards to the MIA48 (#9 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
8.4%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA44 (#4 C.Pruitt; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
8.5%
(13:14) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA30 PENALTY STA Holding (#58 K.House) 10 yards from MIA44 to STA46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+5
8.2%
(13:08) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn caught at MIA50, for 5 yards to the MIA49 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
8.4%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn caught at MIA44, for 15 yards to the MIA34 (#2 D.Brown; #4 C.Pruitt) PENALTY STA Holding (#74 F.Anderson) 10 yards from MIA49 to STA41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 21
OWN 41
0
8.2%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep left to #89 A.Joseph thrown to MIA13 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
8.2%
(11:54) #37 A.Flintoft punt 48 yards to the MIA11 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:4892% → 95%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
8.0%
(11:45) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #7 D.Upshaw caught at MIA11, for 11 yards to the MIA22 (#39 C.Eckhardt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
8.0%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at MIA27, for 7 yards to the MIA29 (#35 M.Rose; #8 C.Richardson)Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
8.0%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA31 (#97 Z.Rowell; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
8.2%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA34 (#36 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
8.3%
(09:39) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA47, for 13 yards to the MIA47 (#39 C.Eckhardt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+39
8.2%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #1 M.Toney caught at STA28, for 39 yards to the STA14 (#39 C.Eckhardt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
7.9%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush left for 9 yards gain to the STA05 (#35 M.Rose; #5 J.Green)Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
5.3%
CharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:557% → 7%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.3%
(07:49) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn caught at STA30, for 6 yards to the STA31 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
7.5%
(07:12) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #89 A.Joseph thrown to STA30 PENALTY STA Holding (#84 C.Holt) 10 yards from STA31 to STA21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
7.2%
(07:06) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep right to #89 A.Joseph thrown to MIA39 PENALTY STA Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
7.2%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short left to #20 M.Ford thrown to STA25 QB hurried by #18 A.BlountSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
7.2%
(06:51) #37 A.Flintoft punt 44 yards to the MIA35 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:4492% → 99%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
8.0%
(06:44) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA39 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
7.6%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at MIA38, for 1 yard to the MIA40 (#9 B.Nicholson)Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
7.7%
(05:47) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA45, for 7 yards to the MIA47 (#35 M.Rose; #0 J.Galvan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short middle thrown to STA35 QB hurried by #11 T.TafitiSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
7.5%
(05:10) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA45, for 5 yards to the STA48 (#45 O.Staples)Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+28
6.0%
(04:26) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #1 M.Toney caught at STA30, for 28 yards to the STA20 (#5 J.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
5.3%
(03:43) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA19 (#57 K.Briehler; #14 D.Pollard)Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
5.4%
(03:05) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Toney thrown to STA00Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+5
5.7%
(03:02) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Moore thrown to STA00 PENALTY STA Offside (#57 K.Briehler) 5 yards from STA19 to STA14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+8
5.4%
(02:55) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at STA17, for 8 yards to the STA06 (#10 S.Mattingly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
5.3%
(02:13) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA05 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.3%
Daylyn Upshaw 5 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 1:222% → 7%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.9%
(01:54) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA30 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
1.5%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at STA39, for 10 yards to the STA40 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
1.6%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #20 M.Ford caught at STA42, for 8 yards to the STA48 (#8 M.Lightfoot), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+15
1.4%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at MIA37, for 15 yards to the MIA37 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.4%
(01:01) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Hall thrown to MIA32Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
9.0%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA32 QB hurried by #0 O.ThorntonSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
8.9%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at MIA24, for 13 yards to the MIA24, out of bounds at MIA24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
9.3%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at MIA08, for 16 yards to the MIA08 QB hurried by #0 O.Thornton, out of bounds at MIA08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
9.1%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA06 (#0 O.Thornton; #97 K.Davis)Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.9%
(00:36) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.High thrown to MIA00 broken up by #0 O.ThorntonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.6%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA12 broken up by #10 D.Wilson IISimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
6.6%
Emmet Kenney 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
3.7%
(00:13) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at MIA21 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5996% → 99%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the MIA35 (#97 Z.Rowell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
3.8%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA36 (#33 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
3.5%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA39 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+14
3.3%
(13:16) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #9 E.Lofton caught at MIA49, for 14 yards to the STA47 (#0 J.Galvan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
3.1%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at STA44, for 9 yards to the STA38 (#0 J.Galvan; #33 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
2.8%
(12:30) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #87 G.Mueller caught at STA38, for 4 yards to the STA34 (#35 M.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
1.1%
Cooper Barkate 34 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:172% → 2%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
1.6%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush right for 8 yards gain to the STA24 (#7 Z.Poyser; #31 H.Scroggins III)Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+10
1.8%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #4 J.Onovughe caught at STA30, for 10 yards to the STA34 (#6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
1.7%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #4 J.Onovughe caught at STA37, for 9 yards to the STA43 (#1 M.Toure; #6 X.Lucas)Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
1.5%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#99 A.Moten) 5 yards from STA43 to STA48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.6%
(09:52) No Huddle #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #88 B.Blackburn thrown to STA48Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
1.6%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #89 A.Joseph thrown to MIA46Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
1.5%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #26 S.Irvin thrown to STA48 QB hurried by #9 C.SmithSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 10
OWN 48
-2
1.5%
(09:31) #37 A.Flintoft punt 45 yards to the MIA07 muffed by #2 J.Lyle at MIA07 recovered by STA #21 S.Edwards at MIA05, End Of Play PENALTY STA Illegal Touch Of Kick (#38 Z.Johnson). The previous play is under automatic review - "Penalty enforcement". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:5399% → 99%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
1.1%
(09:21) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 21 yards gain (9) to the MIA34 (#21 S.Edwards), out of bounds PENALTY MIA Holding (#9 E.Lofton) 10 yards from MIA22 to MIA12Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 11
OWN 12
+2
1.1%
(09:00) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA14 (#38 Z.Johnson)Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+12
1.0%
(08:28) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA24, for 12 yards to the MIA26 (#21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.9%
(07:46) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA26 (#44 E.Cooper; #75 B.Marceau-Olayinka)Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
0.9%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA33, for 17 yards to the MIA43 (#39 C.Eckhardt; #38 Z.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
0.8%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #21 J.Mallory caught at MIA43, for 6 yards to the MIA49, out of bounds at MIA49Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
0.7%
(06:06) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA47 (#9 B.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
0.9%
Malachi Toney 47 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:051% → 0%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.5%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STA24 (#0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
0.5%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #11 J.Hall caught at STA29, for 6 yards to the STA30 (#0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
0.4%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn thrown to STA35 QB hurried by #18 A.BlountSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
0.4%
(04:12) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #4 J.Onovughe caught at STA44, for 17 yards to the STA47 (#0 O.Thornton) PENALTY STA Holding (#62 J.Williams) 10 yards from STA30 to STA20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
0.4%
(04:05) #37 A.Flintoft punt 40 yards to the MIA40 fair catch by #1 M.Toney at MIA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #1 M.Toney caught at MIA45, for 5 yards to the MIA45 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
0.9%
(03:19) Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the MIA44 (#35 M.Rose; #11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
0.9%
(02:40) Shotgun #5 L.Nickel pass incomplete deep right to #13 V.Spafford thrown to STA15Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
1.0%
(02:35) #94 D.Joyce punt 41 yards to the STA15 fair catch by #13 L.Thorpe at STA15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
17 plays · 61 yds · 5:590% → 0%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.3%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush left for 0 yards to the STA15 (#25 J.Dunnigan)Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
0.3%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn thrown to STA25Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+15
0.3%
(01:50) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short right to #88 B.Blackburn thrown to STA22 PENALTY MIA Face Mask (#10 D.Wilson II) 15 yards from STA15 to STA30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
0.3%
(01:41) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA34 (#30 K.Wiley, Jr.; #8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
0.2%
(01:04) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete short left to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to STA49Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+13
0.2%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short middle to #88 B.Blackburn caught at STA45, for 13 yards to the STA47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.3%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA48 (#11 K.Bonner; #30 K.Wiley, Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #88 B.Blackburn caught at MIA47, for 7 yards to the MIA45 (#30 K.Wiley, Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
0.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA42 (#8 M.Lightfoot), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
0.2%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#91 J.Carter) 5 yards from MIA42 to MIA37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+8
0.2%
(13:24) No Huddle #20 M.Ford rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA29 (#11 K.Bonner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.2%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIA26 (#8 M.Lightfoot; #30 K.Wiley, Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
0.2%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep right to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to MIA02Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+2
0.2%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA24 (#8 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
0.1%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep right to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to MIA00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 10:4399% → 100%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
1.0%
Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA24 (#11 T.Tafiti; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
1.0%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #12 S.Wingo caught at MIA36, for 16 yards to the MIA40 (#36 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
0.9%
Shotgun #5 L.Nickel pass complete short right to #12 S.Wingo caught at STA45, for 11 yards to the STA46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.8%
Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the STA43 (#75 B.Marceau-Olayinka)Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Shotgun #5 L.Nickel pass intercepted by #39 C.Eckhardt at STA05, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
0.2%
Shotgun #5 L.Nickel pass complete short right to #12 S.Wingo caught at MIA36, for 16 yards to the MIA40 QB hurried by #96 C.Bachhuber (#36 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
0.6%
Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA43 (#8 C.Richardson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
0.1%
(07:30) Shotgun #34 C.Hampton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA09 (#31 H.Scroggins III)Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+10
0.1%
(06:57) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #3 M.Brown caught at STA13, for 10 yards to the STA19 (#17 E.Marcelin, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short right to #34 C.Hampton caught at STA16, for 0 yards to the STA19 (#4 C.Pruitt)Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
0.1%
(05:56) No Huddle #34 C.Hampton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA23 (#4 C.Pruitt; #20 C.Ewald, Jr.)Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
0.1%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass incomplete deep left to #18 L.Horace thrown to MIA26 broken up by #28 I.TaylorSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
0.1%
(05:10) #37 A.Flintoft punt 40 yards to the MIA37 fair catch by #18 C.Barkate at MIA37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
0.4%
(05:04) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush right for 19 yards gain to the STA44 (#14 D.Pollard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
0.4%
(04:30) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush left for 11 yards gain to the STA33 (#39 C.Eckhardt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.4%
(03:56) Shotgun #21 J.Mallory rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA32 (#10 S.Mattingly)Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
0.4%
(03:24) Shotgun #0 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA28 (#10 S.Mattingly; #4 L.Bryant)Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
0.3%
(02:48) Shotgun #5 L.Nickel pass complete short left to #19 M.Parris caught at STA30, for 0 yards to the STA28 (#95 A.Shovlin)Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
0.3%
Jake Weinberg 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 C.Davis Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the STA28 (#27 R.Mack)Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
(01:21) #5 C.Davis Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the STA28 (#33 B.Pickett Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
0.1%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Mitchell Jr. pass complete short left to #84 C.Holt caught at STA32, for 7 yards to the STA35 (#21 C.Portis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.1%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Davis Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA39 (#55 M.Newton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:55
Daylyn Upshaw 5 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)
-3
TD · Q2 7:52
CharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)
-2.6
TD · Q3 11:51
Cooper Barkate 34 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com