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ISU

Iowa State 10 at BYU 24

BYU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2026 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:09 · (06:09) #95 E.Gurney punt 43 yards to the BYU06 #19 T.Bachmeier return 1 yard to the BYU07 (#18 D.Coffey)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+30.3Home team on offense+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:51: (01:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ISU01, for 5 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +3.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:09: (01:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at ISU46, for 75 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:09, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +7.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:51: (12:56) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #88 C.Greenlaw caught at BYU00, for 1 yard to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:51 PENALTY BYU Holding declined #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler) — ISU win probability +11.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:51: (12:51) #97 K.Konrardy kickoff 65 yards to the BYU00, Touchback — BYU win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:47: (08:54) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 21 yards gain to the ISU24 (#7 K.Pula), 1ST DOWN — ISU win probability +4.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 6:09ISU 4th & 16 at BYU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:01ISU 4th & 9 at BYU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:03BYU 4th & 4 at ISU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55BYU 4th & 1 at ISU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−2.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:44ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:41BYU 4th & 1 at ISU 2, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:34ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47ISU 4th & 24 at ISU 11, down 18
    Numbers favored punt by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:54BYU 4th & 2 at ISU 43, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:09ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:47ISU 4th & 17 at BYU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:51BYU 4th & 5 at ISU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:08ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:52BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:51BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:09BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:51ISU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5785% → 84%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU24, for 8 yards to the BYU33 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
84.4%
(14:23) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at BYU32, for 9 yards to the BYU42 (#21 D.Goodman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.2%
(13:49) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU42, for 3 yards to the BYU45 (#1 K.Washington), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
84.2%
(13:21) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU49 (#24 B.Miller; #93 J.Janikowski)Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+26
83.9%
(12:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 26 yards gain to the ISU25, out of bounds at ISU25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
83.9%
(12:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #7 W.Lyons caught at ISU14, for 11 yards to the ISU14 (#24 B.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
83.8%
(11:21) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 8 yards gain to the ISU06 (#19 E.Lemos)Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
83.7%
(10:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU03 (#19 E.Lemos; #0 Z.Hawk), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.5%
(10:04) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU01 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
83.4%
PENALTY BYU False Start 5 yards from ISU01 to ISU06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.4%
(08:55) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush left for 6 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:52 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:3316% → 16%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.9%
(08:52) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ISU32 (#45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
83.7%
(08:10) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU32 (#13 T.Akana) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#13 T.Akana) 15 yards from ISU32 to ISU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
83.5%
(07:45) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush right for 10 yards gain to the BYU43, out of bounds at BYU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.3%
(07:02) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #25 E.Miller thrown to BYU43 broken up by #31 J.Clifton QB hurried by #90 H.CleggSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-3
83.3%
(06:58) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BYU49 (#90 H.Clegg, #4 C.Uluave)Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
83.7%
(06:15) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Jackson thrown to BYU42 broken up by #1 T.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 16
OPP 49
+1
83.9%
(06:09) #95 E.Gurney punt 43 yards to the BYU06 #19 T.Bachmeier return 1 yard to the BYU07 (#18 D.Coffey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5984% → 83%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
83.8%
(05:58) Shotgun #23 T.Saryon rush right for 5 yards loss to the BYU02 (#10 C.Willich)Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 15
OWN 2
+3
83.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU05 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #5 B.Ngoyi)Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+2
83.4%
(04:37) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU07 (#97 M.Baloun)Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
83.1%
(03:58) #19 F.Shurtz punt 48 yards to the ISU45 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at ISU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:4317% → 19%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.8%
(03:51) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 0 yards to the ISU45 (#96 J.Kirkland)Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
82.8%
(03:09) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #89 T.Claiborne caught at ISU49, for 10 yards to the BYU45 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
82.4%
(02:36) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #89 T.Claiborne caught at BYU41, for 7 yards to the BYU38 (#4 C.Uluave; #11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
82.2%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU38 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
82.2%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU34 (#90 H.Clegg; #31 J.Clifton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
81.7%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 1 yard gain to the BYU33 (#22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
81.6%
(00:11) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BYU23 (#4 C.Uluave), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #37 V.Benetti thrown to BYU22 broken up by #57 K.Tanuvasa QB hurried by #11 F.SatualaSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
81.5%
(14:56) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU22 (#4 C.Uluave; #46 K.Wall)Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
81.9%
(14:11) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Jackson thrown to BYU12Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
80.7%
(14:01) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #56 C.Schmidt), clock 14:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:4380% → 80%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.6%
(13:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU33, for 10 yards to the BYU35 (#7 S.Schlimgen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.6%
(13:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+17
81.2%
(12:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 17 yards gain to the ISU41 (#88 I.Terrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
81.4%
(11:59) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush left for 15 yards gain to the ISU26 (#19 E.Lemos; #3 S.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
81.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #7 W.Lyons caught at ISU13, for 15 yards to the ISU11 (#24 B.Miller; #34 B.Goodwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
81.2%
(10:35) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #13 J.Phillips caught at ISU06, for 5 yards to the ISU06, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
81.2%
(09:54) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 1 yard gain to the ISU05 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #99 B.Lamb)Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
80.7%
(09:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #18 R.Frischknecht thrown to ISU00Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
80.0%
(09:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #1 L.Glasker thrown to ISU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0020% → 19%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
80.5%
(09:02) #21 A.Flora rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU07 (#22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+2
80.9%
(08:22) #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #0 C.Pettaway caught at ISU08, for 2 yards to the ISU09 (#21 M.Hall), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+1
81.2%
(07:42) #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #9 O.Hayes caught at ISU10, for 1 yard to the ISU10 (#1 T.Alexander), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
81.4%
(07:04) #99 J.DuPont punt 60 yards to the BYU30, out of bounds at BYU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0081% → 81%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
81.1%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#58 P.Finau) 5 yards from BYU30 to BYU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+20
80.9%
(06:55) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU27, for 20 yards to the BYU45 (#7 S.Schlimgen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.1%
(06:20) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to ISU18Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
81.6%
(06:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ISU47 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
81.7%
(05:36) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU46 (#10 C.Willich; #93 J.Janikowski)Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
81.0%
(05:00) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU46 (#36 B.Esser), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0719% → 17%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
81.4%
(04:55) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Pettaway thrown to ISU46 broken up by #57 K.TanuvasaSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
81.8%
(04:50) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 2 yards loss to the ISU44 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+5
82.5%
PENALTY ISU False Start (#51 M.King) 5 yards from ISU44 to ISU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+1
82.7%
(03:43) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #21 A.Flora caught at ISU38, for 1 yard to the ISU40 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+22
83.3%
(02:56) #99 J.DuPont punt 53 yards to the BYU07 #19 T.Bachmeier return 22 yards to the BYU29 (#43 C.Matson; #93 J.Janikowski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 0:4781% → 86%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.7%
(02:45) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU32, for 3 yards to the BYU32 (#24 B.Miller), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+63
80.3%
(02:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at ISU47, for 63 yards to the ISU05 (#3 S.Johnson; #19 E.Lemos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #18 R.Frischknecht thrown to ISU00Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.1%
(01:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ISU01, for 5 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:5211% → 10%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.6%
(01:50) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ISU24 (#57 K.Tanuvasa; #13 T.Akana)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
88.7%
(01:09) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #21 A.Flora caught at ISU21, for 2 yards loss to the ISU22 (#1 T.Alexander; #57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
90.1%
(01:04) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #13 J.Polite caught at ISU24, for 4 yards to the ISU26 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+16
90.3%
(00:55) #99 J.DuPont punt 53 yards to the BYU21 #19 T.Bachmeier return 16 yards to the BYU37 (#37 V.Benetti), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:3090% → 89%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
90.4%
(00:46) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU38, for 9 yards to the BYU46 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #24 B.Miller) PENALTY BYU Holding (#52 B.Mulitalo) 10 yards from BYU37 to BYU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
89.0%
(00:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU25, for 0 yards to the BYU27 (#3 S.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5414% → 14%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete deep left to #13 J.Polite thrown to BYU45 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (#1 T.Alexander) 15 yards from ISU25 to ISU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
85.4%
(14:55) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU41 (#96 J.Kirkland; #31 J.Clifton)Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
85.5%
(14:11) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #0 C.Pettaway caught at ISU46, for 5 yards to the ISU46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
85.1%
(13:20) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short middle to #21 A.Flora thrown to BYU47 QB hurried by #4 C.UluaveSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
86.1%
(13:15) #99 J.DuPont punt 53 yards to the BYU01 #19 T.Bachmeier return 0 yards to the BYU01 (#5 B.Ngoyi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13DOWNS
16 plays · 97 yds · 7:1887% → 87%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
86.6%
(13:05) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU03 (#11 W.Breland; #0 Z.Hawk)Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+13
86.6%
(12:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 J.Tonga caught at BYU05, for 13 yards to the BYU16 (#4 M.Harper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
85.7%
(11:37) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU20 (#99 B.Lamb)Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
85.8%
(10:55) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep middle to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU40Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+27
85.3%
(10:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at BYU35, for 27 yards to the BYU47 (#1 K.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
87.3%
(10:10) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush left for 6 yards gain to the ISU47 (#19 E.Lemos)Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+14
87.6%
(09:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #13 J.Phillips caught at ISU43, for 14 yards to the ISU33 (#7 S.Schlimgen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
87.8%
(08:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #7 W.Lyons caught at ISU25, for 22 yards to the ISU11 (#19 E.Lemos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
87.9%
(07:55) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU08 (#99 B.Lamb; #88 I.Terrell)Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
87.9%
(07:14) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU07 (#99 B.Lamb)Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+3
87.5%
(06:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #1 L.Glasker caught at ISU05, for 3 yards to the ISU04 (#10 C.Willich; #19 E.Lemos)Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+2
87.2%
(05:46) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 22 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 05:45 PENALTY ISU Offside 2 yards from ISU04 to ISU02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
87.3%
(05:45) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #7 W.Lyons thrown to ISU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:0014% → 11%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
85.6%
(05:40) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ISU16 (#7 K.Pula), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
86.0%
(04:59) #21 A.Flora rush right for 4 yards gain to the ISU20 (#11 F.Satuala; #21 M.Hall)Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
86.2%
(04:35) #3 A.Barnes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU22 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
87.8%
PENALTY ISU Delay Of Game (#1 J.Raynor) 5 yards from ISU22 to ISU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+3
88.2%
(03:22) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #19 T.Fortenberry caught at ISU20, for 3 yards to the ISU20 (#21 M.Hall)Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
88.6%
(02:39) #99 J.DuPont punt 44 yards to the BYU36 fair catch by #19 T.Bachmeier at BYU36 PENALTY BYU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#31 J.Clifton) 15 yards from BYU36 to BYU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 1:1590% → 98%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
90.0%
(02:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU20, for 1 yard to the BYU22 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #3 S.Johnson)Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
90.5%
(01:57) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 3 yards gain to the BYU25 (#93 J.Janikowski; #7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+75
98.1%
(01:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at ISU46, for 75 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:09, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -14 yds · 1:226% → 5%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.5%
PENALTY ISU Delay Of Game (#1 J.Raynor) 5 yards from ISU25 to ISU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
94.9%
(01:08) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU23 (#22 T.Prassas; #90 H.Clegg)Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-12
95.2%
(00:25) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor sacked for loss of 12 yards to the ISU11 (#31 J.Clifton, #94 A.Purcell)Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
95.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Polite thrown to ISU28 broken up by #22 T.PrassasSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+40
95.4%
(14:53) #99 J.DuPont punt 40 yards to the BYU49 #19 T.Bachmeier return 0 yards to the ISU48 fumbled by #19 T.Bachmeier at ISU48 recovered by ISU #29 T.Sanders at BYU49, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:475% → 17%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
94.9%
(14:47) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #89 T.Claiborne caught at BYU40, for 14 yards to the BYU35 (#1 T.Alexander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
94.4%
(14:20) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush right for 13 yards gain to the BYU22 (#1 T.Alexander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
94.5%
(14:01) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU17 (#4 C.Uluave; #48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+16
94.5%
(13:40) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #13 J.Polite caught at BYU02, for 16 yards to the BYU01, out of bounds at BYU01, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (13:40) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #13 J.Polite caught at BYU01, for 17 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.3%
(13:29) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU01 (#94 A.Purcell)Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.1%
(12:56) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #88 C.Greenlaw caught at BYU00, for 1 yard to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:51 PENALTY BYU Holding declined #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:4593% → 97%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.1%
(12:49) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at BYU30, for 8 yards to the BYU33 (#3 S.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
94.8%
(12:27) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Saleapaga II thrown to BYU33 broken up by #88 I.TerrellSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
94.5%
(12:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU37 (#24 B.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
94.7%
(11:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU35, for 12 yards to the BYU49 (#3 S.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
96.3%
(10:59) Shotgun #13 J.Phillips rush right for 6 yards gain to the ISU45 (#42 M.McClain; #26 T.Cotton)Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
96.6%
(10:21) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush right for 0 yards to the ISU45 (#10 C.Willich)Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
96.7%
(09:46) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at ISU44, for 2 yards to the ISU43 (#26 T.Cotton)Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
96.8%
(09:02) #19 F.Shurtz punt 40 yards to the ISU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:007% → 4%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
93.0%
(08:54) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 21 yards gain to the ISU24 (#7 K.Pula), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
92.7%
(08:13) #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #9 O.Hayes caught at ISU23, for 3 yards to the ISU27 (#4 C.Uluave; #11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-2
92.2%
(07:44) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ISU25 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
(07:06) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #19 T.Fortenberry caught at ISU32, for 7 yards to the ISU32 (#22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+21
95.0%
(06:23) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 21 yards gain to the BYU47 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.9%
(05:39) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left thrown to BYU47 broken up by #31 J.CliftonSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
94.1%
(05:37) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Pettaway thrown to BYU45 broken up by #15 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
94.5%
(05:30) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #9 O.Hayes caught at BYU40, for 14 yards to the BYU33 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.4%
(05:08) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #19 T.Fortenberry caught at BYU29, for 12 yards to the BYU21 (#21 M.Hall; #31 J.Clifton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.3%
(04:43) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Polite thrown to BYU09 broken up by #15 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
93.9%
(04:43) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BYU23 (#18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+5
94.6%
PENALTY ISU False Start (#63 B.Smith) 5 yards from BYU23 to BYU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
94.9%
(03:55) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #89 T.Claiborne thrown to BYU28 broken up by #11 F.SatualaSimilar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
95.9%
(03:50) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler), clock 03:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.6%
(03:46) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush left for 8 yards gain to the BYU36 (#42 M.McClain)Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+39
98.8%
(03:27) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 39 yards gain to the ISU25 (#24 B.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.0%
(03:06) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU25 (#98 M.Ta'ase)Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.0%
(02:27) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 5 yards gain to the ISU20 (#98 M.Ta'ase; #10 C.Willich)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
99.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Kasper thrown to ISU08Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
99.4%
(01:54) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 01:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:342% → 1%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
(01:49) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU25 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
(01:30) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete deep right to #2 C.Jackson thrown to ISU45Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.6%
(01:23) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 8 yards gain to the ISU33 (#31 J.Clifton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.6%
(01:12) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short middle to #19 T.Fortenberry thrown to ISU40 broken up by #22 T.Prassas, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.5%
(01:06) Kneel down by BYU at ISU34 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
99.5%
(00:34) Kneel down by BYU at ISU35 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:51
(12:56) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #88 C.Greenlaw caught at BYU00, for 1 yard to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:51 PENALTY BYU Holding declined #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler)
-11.3
TD · Q3 1:09
(01:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at ISU46, for 75 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:09, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
+7.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:51
(12:51) #97 K.Konrardy kickoff 65 yards to the BYU00, Touchback
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com