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HOU

Houston 35 at Kansas State 16

KSU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:41 · (09:50) #91 L.Dougherty punt 48 yards to the KSTATE31 #6 S.Lockett return 8 yards to the KSTATE39 (#31 T.Jackson), out of bounds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense−48.1Score differential−39.9Garbage-time factor−17.8Pregame prior+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:52: (09:56) #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 2 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:52 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +7.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:17: (03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush right for 13 yards gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +15.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:23: (09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 8 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +11.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:11: (06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #86 G.Oakley caught at HOU03, for 13 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #2 A.Johnson pass attempt failed — KSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:48: (00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 2 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:20HOU 4th & 1 at KSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:53HOU 4th & 6 at KSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00KSU 4th & 6 at HOU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:47HOU 4th & 1 at KSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04KSU 4th & 4 at HOU 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:26KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 43, down 18
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:17HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.7
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:50KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:12HOU 4th & 1 at KSU 20, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−2.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−9.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:22KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:34HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 44, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:41HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 21, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:20HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:52HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:23HOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:11KSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:48HOU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:39KSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2943% → 46%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at HOU29, for 12 yards to the HOU37 (#0 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
56.7%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 9 yards gain to the HOU46 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
56.7%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU50 (#4 M.Mason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
50
+9
56.6%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE45, for 9 yards to the KSTATE41 (#4 M.Mason; #10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
56.6%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE38 (#10 L.Bartley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
56.6%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at KSTATE36, for 1 yard to the KSTATE37 (#28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
56.5%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #0 A.Thomas thrown to KSTATE39 broken up by #91 J.AllenSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+36
56.5%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #2 K.Young caught at KSTATE01, for 36 yards to the KSTATE01 (#25 Z.Rich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
56.3%
(10:43) #21 M.Hughes rush right for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE02 (#88 E.Jackson)Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
56.3%
(10:06) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to KSTATE00Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.4%
(10:05) #9 P.Overmyer rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE01 (#26 S.Schilke; #4 M.Mason)Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.4%
(09:22) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 1 yard to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:20 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5755% → 54%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.7%
(09:19) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
54.4%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete deep middle to #8 B.White thrown to HOU41Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
54.0%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Manning thrown to KSTATE40 PENALTY HOU Holding (#21 M.Rowser) 9 yards from KSTATE27 to KSTATE36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
54.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSTATE43 (#0 J.White)Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-2
54.8%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSTATE41 (#6 J.Allen)Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
54.1%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to HOU30Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
53.6%
(07:19) #8 S.McClannan punt 59 yards to the HOU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1646% → 48%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.6%
(07:12) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #0 A.Thomas thrown to HOU27 broken up by #0 K.BeasleySimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
53.6%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 7 yards gain to the HOU27 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+13
53.1%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #4 T.Walker caught at HOU31, for 13 yards to the HOU40 (#25 Z.Rich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
52.2%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Young rush right for 40 yards gain to the KSTATE20 (#0 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
51.6%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSTATE16 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
51.3%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to KSTATE00Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
51.4%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush right for 0 yards to the KSTATE16 (#15 K.Burns)Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
51.8%
(03:56) #49 J.Dimas field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards), clock 03:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:4252% → 55%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
52.2%
(03:52) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #5 J.Manning caught at KSTATE29, for 12 yards to the KSTATE32 (#2 J.Mayo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
52.3%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSTATE38 (#4 B.Mack) PENALTY HOU Face Mask (#90 D.Thomas) 15 yards from KSTATE38 to HOU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
53.5%
(03:10) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 19 yards gain to the HOU28, out of bounds at HOU28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
53.7%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #5 J.Manning caught at HOU24, for 5 yards to the HOU23 (#0 J.White)Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
53.6%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU21 (#25 C.Glass)Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+6
52.7%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #20 R.Fields Jr. caught at HOU22, for 6 yards to the HOU15 (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
53.2%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU11 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
53.1%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Manning thrown to HOU00Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
52.3%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to HOU03 broken up by #2 J.MayoSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
55.2%
Luis Rodriguez 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5846% → 58%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU28 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
53.7%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 8 yards gain to the HOU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
53.2%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush right for 6 yards gain to the HOU42 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+19
52.5%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at KSTATE43, for 19 yards to the KSTATE39, out of bounds at KSTATE39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.7%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to KSTATE20Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
51.7%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush right for 6 yards gain to the KSTATE33 (#9 D.McIntosh)Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
51.3%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE30 (#34 N.McClellan)Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
52.3%
(11:47) No Huddle #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#88 E.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
50.3%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to KSTATE23 broken up by #28 R.Van WyheSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
50.6%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #12 S.Johnson thrown to KSTATE00 PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (#7 K.Patterson) 15 yards from KSTATE28 to KSTATE13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
50.1%
(10:54) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush left for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE10 (#9 D.McIntosh). #9 D.McIntosh injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
50.0%
(10:39) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #87 L.McGary caught at KSTATE11, for 8 yards to the KSTATE02 (#4 M.Mason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.5%
(09:56) #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 2 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:52 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:4744% → 42%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
44.2%
(09:51) Shotgun #5 J.Manning rush left for 21 yards gain to the KSTATE46 (#8 K.Webb), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:51) Shotgun #5 J.Manning rush left for 25 yards gain to the KSTATE50 (#8 K.Webb), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
45.2%
(09:09) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson sacked for loss of 1 yard to the KSTATE45 (#10 L.McCutchin, #99 Q.Lee)Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
43.5%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE44 (#25 C.Glass)Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+8
41.3%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #4 J.Jackson caught at KSTATE47, for 8 yards to the HOU48 (#5 W.James)Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
41.6%
(07:09) #8 S.McClannan punt 39 yards to the HOU09 fair catch by #4 T.Walker at HOU09 PENALTY KSTATE Holding (#26 S.Schilke) 10 yards from HOU09 to HOU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4158% → 77%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
41.7%
(07:03) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush right for 4 yards gain to the HOU23 (#15 K.Burns) PENALTY KSTATE Face Mask (#15 K.Burns) 15 yards from HOU23 to HOU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
40.3%
(06:51) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #87 L.McGary caught at HOU49, for 20 yards to the KSTATE42 (#28 R.Van Wyhe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
39.8%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSTATE36 (#35 G.Powers)Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+7
39.1%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush left for 7 yards gain to the KSTATE29 (#35 G.Powers), 1ST DOWN. #35 G.Powers injured on the playSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
38.9%
(05:27) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush right for 4 yards gain to the KSTATE25 (#88 E.Jackson)Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
38.5%
(04:51) PENALTY HOU False Start (#66 M.Agnello) 5 yards from KSTATE25 to KSTATE30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+5
38.6%
(04:42) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE25, for 5 yards to the KSTATE25 (#2 A.Maddox)Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
37.8%
PENALTY HOU False Start (#56 S.Hurst) 5 yards from KSTATE25 to KSTATE30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+17
37.9%
(03:56) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #4 T.Walker caught at KSTATE15, for 17 yards to the KSTATE13 (#9 D.McIntosh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
22.7%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush right for 13 yards gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:4629% → 26%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
(03:16) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #1 I.Williams thrown to KSTATE25Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.5%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#0 J.White)Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
27.1%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #12 J.Tibbs caught at KSTATE32, for 9 yards to the KSTATE37 (#12 S.Fotu; #3 J.Rhym), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
27.8%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #4 J.Jackson caught at KSTATE41, for 5 yards to the KSTATE42 (#0 J.White)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
27.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE43 (#21 M.Rowser)Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
26.8%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Jackson thrown to KSTATE46 QB hurried by #10 L.McCutchinSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
26.4%
(01:30) #8 S.McClannan punt 42 yards to the HOU15 fair catch by #4 T.Walker at HOU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0278% → 77%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
22.0%
(01:23) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU16 (#10 L.Bartley; #6 D.Whitaker)Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
21.0%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the HOU22 (#0 K.Beasley)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
23.0%
(00:32) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to HOU28 broken up by #21 J.ScottSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+16
22.8%
(00:29) #91 L.Dougherty punt 74 yards to the KSTATE04 #8 B.White return 16 yards to the KSTATE20 (#22 Z.Cormier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
31.8%
(00:15) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE21 (#10 L.McCutchin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5924% → 22%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.2%
(14:58) Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the KSTATE33 (#8 K.Webb)Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
24.6%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSTATE37 (#18 K.Laufau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.3%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left thrown to KSTATE40 QB hurried by #98 M.ParkerSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
23.0%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #86 G.Oakley caught at KSTATE35, for 0 yards to the KSTATE37 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
22.1%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Jackson thrown to KSTATE42 QB hurried by #18 K.LaufauSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+7
21.7%
(12:57) #8 S.McClannan punt 46 yards to the HOU17 #4 T.Walker return 7 yards to the HOU24 (#36 J.Fabris), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1780% → 96%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
19.6%
(12:47) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU27 (#28 R.Van Wyhe; #1 W.Gregory)Similar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
18.8%
(12:00) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU27 (#1 W.Gregory; #28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+44
18.5%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at HOU32, for 44 yards to the KSTATE29 (#0 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
16.7%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #2 K.Young thrown to KSTATE01Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
17.1%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KSTATE20 (#21 J.Scott)Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
16.4%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 0 yards to the KSTATE20 (#1 W.Gregory; #0 K.Beasley)Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
16.9%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE17 (#28 R.Van Wyhe), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSTATE Illegal Use Of Hands (#1 W.Gregory) 9 yards from KSTATE17 to KSTATE08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.1%
(10:04) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 0 yards to the KSTATE08, out of bounds at KSTATE08Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.9%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 8 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:444% → 20%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
3.6%
(09:11) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #20 R.Fields Jr. caught at KSTATE35, for 30 yards to the HOU34 (#2 J.Mayo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
3.6%
(08:28) Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the HOU26 (#2 J.Mayo)Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
3.5%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU23 (#98 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
3.4%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 9 yards gain to the HOU14 (#10 L.McCutchin), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+1
3.2%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU13 (#12 S.Fotu), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.5%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #86 G.Oakley caught at HOU03, for 13 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #2 A.Johnson pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:0990% → 98%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.0%
(06:03) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #21 M.Hughes thrown to HOU40 QB hurried by #1 W.GregorySimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
10.0%
PENALTY HOU False Start (#56 S.Hurst) 5 yards from HOU33 to HOU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+3
10.1%
(05:56) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 3 yards gain to the HOU31 (#4 M.Mason)Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+30
9.8%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU48, for 30 yards to the KSTATE39 (#21 J.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
7.4%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE37 (#28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
7.1%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE32 (#40 J.Bryant)Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
6.4%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at KSTATE26, for 6 yards to the KSTATE26 (#25 Z.Rich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
5.9%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSTATE16 (#7 K.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
5.7%
(02:26) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush left for 13 yards gain to the KSTATE03 (#88 E.Jackson), 1ST DOWN. #88 E.Jackson injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
5.1%
(01:24) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush left for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE02 (#23 A.Newsom)Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.6%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 2 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:202% → 1%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
(00:47) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #0 L.Cure thrown to KSTATE30Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #15 D.Salley Jr. thrown to KSTATE33 broken up by #98 M.Parker QB hurried by #4 B.MackSimilar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #1 I.Williams thrown to KSTATE33Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
(00:28) #8 S.McClannan punt 43 yards to the HOU32, out of bounds at HOU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
1.8%
(00:18) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 11 yards gain to the HOU43 (#2 A.Maddox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
1.6%
(14:53) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU45 (#23 A.Newsom)Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
1.5%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 4 yards gain to the HOU49 (#2 A.Maddox)Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
1.3%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #4 T.Walker thrown to KSTATE45 broken up by #21 J.ScottSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+5
1.4%
(13:42) PENALTY HOU Delay Of Game (#91 L.Dougherty) 5 yards from HOU49 to HOU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
1.4%
(13:42) #91 L.Dougherty punt 56 yards to the KSTATE00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
1.2%
(13:24) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #0 L.Cure caught at KSTATE25, for 18 yards to the KSTATE38 (#25 C.Glass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
1.1%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE41 (#9 A.Porter)Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
0.9%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson sacked for loss of 2 yards to the KSTATE39 (#98 M.Parker, #18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+36
0.8%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #86 G.Oakley caught at KSTATE43, for 36 yards to the HOU25 (#30 R.Ugochukwu), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
1.0%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to HOU00 PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (#0 J.White) 15 yards from HOU25 to HOU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
(11:24) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #15 D.Salley Jr. thrown to HOU00Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.8%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to HOU05Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
0.7%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass intercepted by #6 J.Allen at HOU10 #6 J.Allen return 2 yards to the HOU12 (#5 J.Manning)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
0.9%
(11:08) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #2 K.Young caught at HOU16, for 4 yards to the HOU16, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
0.8%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #19 K.Thomas thrown to HOU30 QB hurried by #1 W.GregorySimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+5
0.8%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at HOU21, for 5 yards to the HOU21 (#21 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+8
0.7%
(09:50) #91 L.Dougherty punt 48 yards to the KSTATE31 #6 S.Lockett return 8 yards to the KSTATE39 (#31 T.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:501% → 3%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.5%
(09:38) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #12 J.Tibbs caught at KSTATE44, for 6 yards to the KSTATE45 (#8 K.Webb; #33 J.Barbas)Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
0.5%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE48 (#21 M.Rowser)Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
0.4%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the HOU47 (#10 L.McCutchin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.4%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #0 L.Cure caught at HOU38, for 9 yards to the HOU38 (#21 M.Rowser)Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+7
0.4%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #5 J.Manning caught at HOU35, for 7 yards to the HOU31 (#30 R.Ugochukwu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.4%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HOU30 (#17 C.Brathwaite)Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+12
0.4%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #12 J.Tibbs caught at HOU19, for 12 yards to the HOU18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
0.4%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Manning rush left for 5 yards gain to the HOU13 (#3 J.Rhym), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
0.3%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the HOU13 (#17 C.Brathwaite)Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+10
0.3%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 10 yards gain to the HOU03, out of bounds at HOU03, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
0.3%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the HOU06 (#50 E.Egodogbare)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.3%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the HOU06 (#99 Q.Lee)Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.0%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #12 J.Tibbs caught at HOU00, for 6 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:39 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
1.3%
(03:38) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush left for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE40 (#34 N.McClellan)Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
1.2%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE38 (#34 N.McClellan)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+13
0.7%
(02:07) Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush right for 13 yards gain to the KSTATE25 (#2 A.Maddox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY HOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#6 R.Sanford II) 15 yards from KSTATE25 to KSTATE40Similar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
0.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE37 (#1 W.Gregory)Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
0.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSTATE31 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
0.5%
(00:27) Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush right for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#10 L.Bartley; #23 A.Newsom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:11
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #86 G.Oakley caught at HOU03, for 13 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #2 A.Johnson pass attempt failed
+16.2
TD · Q2 3:17
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush right for 13 yards gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)
-15.2
TD · Q3 9:23
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 8 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com