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CIN

Cincinnati 7 at Arizona 34

ARIZ
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:52 · (01:57) #31 M.Fletcher punt 40 yards to the ARIZ30 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+27.4Pregame prior+7.1Score differential+18.5Garbage-time factor+7.1Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:21: (10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 10 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:21, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +1.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:01: (00:00) Kneel down by Cincinnati at CIN25 for loss of 0 yards — CIN win probability +6.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:29: (09:31) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +8.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:07: (03:09) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #18 B.Phelps caught at CIN14, for 24 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:07, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:11: (12:14) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson), clock 12:11 — ARIZ win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:33CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:21CIN 4th & 13 at ARIZ 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:02ARIZ 4th & 2 at CIN 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:10CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:01CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:45ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49CIN 4th & 2 at ARIZ 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:44CIN 4th & 5 at ARIZ 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:52CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:11ARIZ 4th & 13 at CIN 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:27CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:21ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:29ARIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:07ARIZ Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:21ARIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:56CIN Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3175% → 75%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
74.5%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ21 (#91 D.Logan)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
74.4%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARIZ31, for 13 yards to the ARIZ34 (#8 K.Worthy)Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
74.3%
(13:43) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ41 (#18 J.Beeler; #2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
74.3%
(13:09) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ48 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
74.3%
(12:45) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #87 T.Powell caught at CIN46, for 8 yards to the CIN44 (#18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
74.3%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at CIN47, for 7 yards to the CIN37 (#10 P.Bauer; #18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
74.2%
(11:47) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #12 T.Spivey thrown to CIN10 QB hurried by #12 F.MaciorowskiSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+19
74.2%
(11:38) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #5 G.Richardson caught at CIN34, for 19 yards to the CIN18 (#2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
74.1%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #3 K.Reescano caught at CIN24, for 8 yards to the CIN10 (#5 M.Saboor; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
75.4%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 10 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:21, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4025% → 25%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.8%
(10:19) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the CIN26 (#95 L.Palu; #3 T.Smith)Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.8%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush left for 0 yards to the CIN26 (#3 T.Smith; #95 L.Palu)Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
75.2%
(09:19) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN22, for 4 yards loss to the CIN22 (#7 C.Kennedy; #48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
75.4%
(08:44) #31 M.Fletcher punt 62 yards to the ARIZ16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4575% → 75%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
75.1%
(08:33) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ16 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #16 J.White-McLain)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
75.1%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #87 T.Powell caught at ARIZ21, for 5 yards to the ARIZ21 (#17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+5
74.9%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ30, for 11 yards to the ARIZ32 (#14 K.Meier) PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Formation (#71 T.Bounds) 5 yards from ARIZ21 to ARIZ16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
75.0%
(06:48) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass intercepted by #2 M.Cannon at ARIZ32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1826% → 24%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
74.2%
(06:42) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #0 I.Johnson thrown to ARIZ25Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
74.2%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ28 (#3 T.Smith; #48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-7
74.5%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ35 (#9 T.Boss)Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+53
75.6%
(05:26) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 05:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1376% → 76%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
75.5%
(05:21) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush right for 18 yards gain to the CIN47 (#3 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
76.1%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 19 yards gain to the CIN28 (#18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
76.3%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at CIN31, for 7 yards to the CIN21 (#2 M.Cannon)Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
76.4%
(03:57) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Smith thrown to CIN11Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
76.1%
(03:51) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN20 (#4 M.Parker; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-1
75.7%
(03:06) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard loss to the CIN21 (#18 J.Beeler), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5525% → 25%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
75.4%
(03:01) Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush right for 2 yards gain to the CIN23 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
75.1%
(02:35) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #9 M.Henry caught at CIN30, for 4 yards to the CIN27 (#8 J.Cole)Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
75.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #3 C.Tabb caught at CIN25, for 3 yards to the CIN30 (#8 J.Cole; #13 C.Chapa)Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+5
75.5%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush left for 5 yards gain to the CIN35 (#17 L.Molette III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.9%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #0 I.Johnson thrown to CIN33Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.0%
(00:46) PENALTY CIN Illegal Snap (#77 T.Tyo) 5 yards from CIN35 to CIN30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+12
75.3%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #14 E.Jones caught at CIN36, for 12 yards to the CIN42 (#6 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
74.4%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete deep left to #18 G.Kontosis thrown to ARIZ30Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
75.2%
(00:06) #31 M.Fletcher punt 40 yards to the ARIZ18 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1676% → 76%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
75.6%
(00:00) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ18 (#9 D.Wilson; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
75.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ24, for 6 yards to the ARIZ24 (#0 J.Finley)Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
75.2%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (#17 I.Mizell) 5 yards from ARIZ24 to ARIZ19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+20
75.0%
(14:06) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ36, for 20 yards to the ARIZ39 (#0 J.Finley; #2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWN. #2 M.Cannon injured on the playSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
76.3%
(13:35) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #20 C.Smith caught at ARIZ42, for 5 yards to the ARIZ44 (#3 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
76.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ46 (#31 S.Coleman; #9 D.Wilson)Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
76.3%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #17 I.Mizell thrown to ARIZ50Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
75.6%
(12:52) #37 C.Ridley punt 42 yards to the CIN12 fair catch by #9 M.Henry at CIN12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:5125% → 25%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
75.4%
(12:45) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN15 (#6 T.Brown; #35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
75.4%
(12:12) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #85 L.Waters caught at CIN16, for 6 yards to the CIN21 (#15 M.Hartzog)Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+9
75.7%
(11:35) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #87 G.Grover caught at CIN21, for 9 yards to the CIN30 (#8 J.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.1%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush left for 2 yards loss to the CIN28 (#42 D.Lolesio)Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
75.5%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN33, for 6 yards to the CIN34 (#23 G.Hunter)Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+11
75.4%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CIN45 (#6 T.Brown; #35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
74.6%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Tabb thrown to CIN47Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
74.9%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN46 (#44 P.Williams; #7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+23
75.3%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #3 C.Tabb caught at CIN44, for 23 yards to the ARIZ31 (#35 Q.Olson; #6 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
73.5%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 21 yards gain to the ARIZ10 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
73.2%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ09 (#8 J.Cole)Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.1%
(07:13) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ04 (#35 Q.Olson; #23 G.Hunter)Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.1%
(06:33) Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ02 (#6 T.Brown; #7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.0%
(05:54) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #87 G.Grover thrown to ARIZ00 broken up by #23 G.Hunter QB hurried by #3 T.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
21 plays · 92 yds · 5:4277% → 79%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
76.8%
(05:49) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ03 (#95 J.Hough; #31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+4
76.7%
(05:14) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ07 (#18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
76.1%
(04:35) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #20 C.Smith caught at ARIZ12, for 8 yards to the ARIZ15 (#3 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
77.0%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARIZ21, for 6 yards to the ARIZ21 (#8 K.Worthy)Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
77.2%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ24 (#16 J.White-McLain; #12 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
76.7%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ30 (#22 J.Thompson; #18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
77.2%
(02:40) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep left to #20 C.Smith thrown to CIN40 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#2 M.Cannon) 15 yards from ARIZ30 to ARIZ45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
78.5%
(02:33) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 18 yards gain to the CIN37 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.7%
(02:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Smith thrown to CIN35 broken up by #54 T.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
78.5%
(02:03) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #87 T.Powell caught at CIN36, for 10 yards to the CIN27 (#8 K.Worthy; #9 D.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
78.9%
(01:57) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN22 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #2 M.Cannon)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
79.0%
(01:26) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 7 yards gain to the CIN15 (#18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.1%
(00:54) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN15 (#2 M.Cannon; #95 J.Hough)Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
79.1%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at CIN13, for 10 yards to the CIN05 (#9 D.Wilson; #0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.5%
(00:20) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #12 T.Spivey thrown to CIN00 PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Formation (#17 I.Mizell) 5 yards from CIN05 to CIN10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.5%
(00:16) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #12 T.Spivey thrown to CIN09 broken up by #2 M.CannonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
78.6%
(00:11) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #8 S.King caught at CIN07, for 4 yards to the CIN06 (#9 D.Wilson)Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
78.8%
(00:04) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson), clock 00:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
74.1%
(00:00) Kneel down by Cincinnati at CIN25 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4720% → 19%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Gibson thrown to CIN37Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right thrown to CIN35 QB hurried by #3 T.SmithSimilar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
80.5%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #3 C.Tabb caught at CIN29, for 16 yards to the CIN41 (#12 D.Bootle II; #11 J.Mann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
78.6%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN46 (#6 T.Brown; #13 C.Chapa)Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-1
79.5%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV sacked for loss of 1 yard to the CIN45 (#42 D.Lolesio)Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
80.2%
(13:21) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short middle to #18 G.Kontosis thrown to ARIZ46 QB hurried by #6 T.BrownSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
81.5%
(13:13) #31 M.Fletcher punt 55 yards to the ARIZ00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3282% → 93%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
81.6%
(13:06) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARIZ19 (#18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-2
81.4%
(12:39) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ16 (#17 B.Simms III, #95 J.Hough)Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+14
80.8%
(12:04) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARIZ30, for 14 yards to the ARIZ30 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+58
82.0%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 70 yards gain (58) to the CIN00 fumbled by #44 A.Roberts at CIN12 forced by #0 J.Finley, out of bounds at CIN00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Illegal Bat (#3 A.Peek Jr.) 6 yards from CIN12 to CIN06Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.6%
(11:17) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN06 (#0 J.Finley; #10 P.Bauer)Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
83.8%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (#63 A.Doost) 5 yards from CIN06 to CIN11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
83.9%
(10:18) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN08 (#91 D.Logan; #0 J.Finley)Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.7%
(09:31) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3910% → 8%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.4%
(09:28) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN29 (#17 L.Molette III; #7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
90.1%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Gibson thrown to ARIZ45 PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (#12 D.Bootle II) 15 yards from CIN29 to CIN44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
89.7%
(09:01) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #2 L.Fenner caught at CIN39, for 8 yards to the ARIZ48 (#7 C.Kennedy; #15 M.Hartzog)Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-4
89.3%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CIN45 (#7 C.Kennedy, #51 K.Lafitaga)Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+14
90.6%
(07:48) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #2 L.Fenner caught at ARIZ44, for 14 yards to the ARIZ41 (#8 J.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
90.9%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ40 (#10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
91.1%
(06:54) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #0 I.Johnson caught at ARIZ37, for 4 yards to the ARIZ36 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
91.5%
(06:23) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #0 I.Johnson thrown to ARIZ36 QB hurried by #8 J.ColeSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+4
91.9%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ32 (#10 M.Robinson; #6 T.Brown), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ31 (#10 M.Robinson; #6 T.Brown), 1ST DOWN)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0694% → 98%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
93.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ35 (#4 M.Parker; #9 D.Wilson)Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
93.9%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #87 T.Powell caught at ARIZ40, for 12 yards to the ARIZ47 (#9 D.Wilson; #2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.3%
(04:16) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep left to #17 I.Mizell thrown to CIN25Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+36
94.3%
(04:10) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #17 I.Mizell caught at CIN41, for 36 yards to the CIN17 (#14 K.Meier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
94.6%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 12 yards gain (3) to the CIN05 (#0 J.Finley; #2 M.Cannon) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#73 M.Lado) 10 yards from CIN14 to CIN24Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 17
OPP 24
+24
97.9%
(03:09) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #18 B.Phelps caught at CIN14, for 24 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:07, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:053% → 2%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
(03:06) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN30, for 7 yards to the CIN32 (#9 T.Boss)Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
97.6%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #3 C.Tabb caught at CIN30, for 2 yards loss to the CIN30 (#27 K.Harris)Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Tabb thrown to CIN30 QB hurried by #6 T.BrownSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.0%
(01:57) #31 M.Fletcher punt 40 yards to the ARIZ30 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:3298% → 100%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
98.0%
(01:50) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 16 yards gain to the ARIZ46 (#0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.2%
(01:06) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #18 B.Phelps caught at CIN38, for 34 yards to the CIN20 (#18 J.Beeler) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#71 T.Bounds) 10 yards from ARIZ46 to ARIZ36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+10
98.2%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ARIZ46 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ49 (#31 S.Coleman) PENALTY CIN Holding (#9 D.Wilson) 10 yards from ARIZ49 to CIN41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.5%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Smith thrown to CIN36Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
98.5%
(14:33) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 14 yards gain to the CIN27 (#14 K.Meier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
98.6%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #20 C.Smith caught at CIN29, for 12 yards to the CIN15 (#3 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWN. #9 D.Wilson injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.7%
(13:44) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Mosley thrown to CIN00Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.7%
(13:40) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN13 (#54 T.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-3
98.7%
(12:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 5 yards to the CIN18 (#31 S.Coleman, #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
99.8%
(12:14) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson), clock 12:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
(12:11) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN33 (#27 K.Harris)Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
99.8%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right thrown to CIN44Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.8%
(11:38) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Tabb thrown to CIN45 QB hurried by #16 E.Roussaw Jr.Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
(11:34) PENALTY CIN False Start (#50 E.Tengesdahl) 5 yards from CIN33 to CIN28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
(11:32) #31 M.Fletcher punt 43 yards to the ARIZ29 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:57100% → 100%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
(11:24) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush right for 12 yards gain to the ARIZ41 (#2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
(10:39) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ41 (#31 S.Coleman; #18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
(09:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #3 K.Reescano caught at ARIZ46, for 11 yards to the CIN48 (#10 P.Bauer; #31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN44 (#18 J.Beeler; #10 P.Bauer)Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+11
99.9%
(08:43) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at CIN39, for 11 yards to the CIN33 (#8 K.Worthy; #31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #17 I.Mizell thrown to CIN30 broken up by #95 J.HoughSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.9%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN32 (#9 D.Wilson; #5 M.Saboor)Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #18 B.Phelps caught at CIN29, for 12 yards to the CIN20 (#0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
99.9%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CIN21 (#22 J.Thompson; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+11
99.9%
(06:10) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #2 R.Mosley caught at CIN10, for 11 yards to the CIN10 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Jordan thrown to CIN00 PENALTY CIN Holding (#2 M.Cannon) 5 yards from CIN10 to CIN05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
(05:38) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Jordan thrown to CIN00Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
(05:33) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Mosley thrown to CIN00 broken up by #0 J.FinleySimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
(05:28) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #87 T.Powell caught at CIN00, for 5 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:21, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
(05:20) Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN29 (#27 K.Harris; #51 K.Lafitaga)Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Tabb thrown to CIN28Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
99.9%
(04:50) Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN41, for 24 yards to the ARIZ47 (#15 M.Hartzog), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ45 (#7 C.Kennedy; #27 K.Harris)Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-8
99.9%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 8 yards loss to the CIN47 fumbled by #4 J.French IV at ARIZ50, out of bounds at CIN47Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+23
99.9%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #0 I.Johnson caught at ARIZ43, for 23 yards to the ARIZ30 (#23 G.Hunter; #41 J.Savaiinaea), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ARIZ Roughing The Passer (#45 V.Johnson) 15 yards from ARIZ30 to ARIZ15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
(03:09) Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 14 yards gain to the ARIZ01 (#13 C.Chapa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
(02:21) Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARIZ02 (#41 J.Savaiinaea; #0 D.Fifita)Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
(01:56) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ27 (#31 S.Coleman; #26 C.Roetherford)Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
(01:08) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ27 (#16 J.White-McLain)Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
(00:25) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ33 (#31 S.Coleman; #18 J.Beeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:29
(09:31) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
+8.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:01
(00:00) Kneel down by Cincinnati at CIN25 for loss of 0 yards
-6.6
TD · Q3 3:07
(03:09) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #18 B.Phelps caught at CIN14, for 24 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:07, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com