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BYU

BYU 17 at TCU 10

TCU
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: (00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU00, for 13 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry) — TCU win probability +13.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:48: (07:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU22, for 8 yards to the BYU36 (#15 D.Hidrogo; #37 H.Hooper) — BYU win probability +8.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:06: (02:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 21 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:06, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY TCU Offside declined — BYU win probability +11.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:32: (00:34) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 00:32 — TCU win probability +9.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:32: Timeout BYU, clock 00:32 — BYU win probability +9.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:43BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46TCU 4th & 23 at TCU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09BYU 4th & 9 at TCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49TCU 4th & 4 at BYU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:53TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:56BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03BYU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−4.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:34BYU 4th & 13 at TCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:29TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:51BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−5.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36TCU 4th & 8 at BYU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−2.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:22BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−3.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:01TCU 4th & 9 at BYU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−3.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−13.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:32TCU 4th & 7 at BYU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:52BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:06BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0972% → 71%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.0%
(14:55) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU29 (#22 J.Lester), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
28.3%
(14:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU25, for 0 yards to the BYU29 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
28.5%
(13:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #4 L.Martin thrown to BYU39Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
28.6%
(13:50) #19 F.Shurtz punt 41 yards to the TCU30 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 3:5229% → 30%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
28.6%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU32 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
29.0%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #88 K.Pimpton caught at TCU35, for 3 yards to the TCU35 (#22 T.Prassas), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
29.2%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #80 J.Hayes caught at TCU45, for 10 yards to the TCU45 (#1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
29.8%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU44 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-4
30.1%
(11:07) No Huddle #3 M.Everhart rush right for 4 yards loss to the TCU40 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-8
30.0%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TCU32 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+16
30.1%
(09:57) #48 J.Chance punt 57 yards to the BYU11 #32 C.DeVries return 16 yards to the BYU27 (#27 M.Teason; #32 D.Arkansas), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3970% → 69%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
30.3%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#52 B.Mulitalo) 5 yards from BYU27 to BYU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+4
30.5%
(09:43) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU26 (#4 G.Jackson; #3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
30.7%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#52 B.Mulitalo) 5 yards from BYU26 to BYU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+4
30.8%
(08:55) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush left for 4 yards gain to the BYU25 (#15 D.Hidrogo), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
31.3%
(08:19) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #4 L.Martin thrown to BYU17 broken up by #0 Z.ChapmanSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
31.5%
(08:14) #19 F.Shurtz punt 52 yards to the TCU23 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3231% → 32%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
31.2%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU29 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+9
31.6%
(07:26) #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at TCU38, for 9 yards to the TCU38 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
32.1%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #18 E.Small thrown to TCU34Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.0%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU40 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-7
32.1%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TCU33 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
31.7%
(05:36) #48 J.Chance punt 49 yards to the BYU18 fair catch by #32 C.DeVries at BYU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:1368% → 66%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
32.3%
(05:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU37 QB hurried by #3 M.CarrollSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
32.4%
(05:22) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 11 yards gain to the BYU29 (#97 P.Oyewale; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
32.5%
(04:42) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU34 (#22 J.Lester)Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
32.4%
(04:03) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU38 (#90 K.Mickell; #6 K.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
32.5%
(03:21) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 1 yard gain to the BYU39 (#0 Z.Chapman; #6 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.6%
(02:37) #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep middle to #1 L.Glasker thrown to TCU28 broken up by #15 D.HidrogoSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
32.7%
(02:29) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #18 R.Frischknecht caught at BYU36, for 2 yards loss to the BYU37 (#6 K.Jackson), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Face Mask (#6 K.Jackson) 15 yards from BYU39 to TCU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
32.2%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#63 B.Mitchell) 5 yards from TCU46 to BYU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
33.0%
(01:50) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #12 P.Rex thrown to BYU46Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+1
33.2%
(01:48) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU50 (#18 K.McFadden)Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 14
50
+5
33.8%
(00:59) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU45 (#7 J.Simms)Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
34.3%
(00:13) #19 F.Shurtz punt 35 yards to the TCU10 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:2035% → 38%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
35.1%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 8 yards gain to the TCU18 (#11 F.Satuala; #45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+9
35.4%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #88 K.Pimpton caught at TCU25, for 9 yards to the TCU27 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
35.8%
(14:10) Shotgun #81 K.Ashley rush right for 7 yards gain to the TCU34 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+25
36.9%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 25 yards gain to the BYU41 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
38.0%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at BYU32, for 9 yards to the BYU32 (#11 F.Satuala), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
38.7%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 0 yards to the BYU32 (#46 K.Wall)Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
38.4%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#50 W.Van Hoy) 5 yards from BYU32 to BYU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
38.6%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU35 (#46 K.Wall)Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-59
38.0%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #11 F.Satuala at BYU25 #11 F.Satuala return 59 yards to the TCU16 (#18 E.Small; #15 T.Shelton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:3766% → 73%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
33.8%
(10:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at TCU21, for 8 yards to the TCU08 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+1
33.8%
(09:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU07 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+1
34.6%
(09:13) #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU06 (#3 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
34.1%
(08:40) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU04 (#4 G.Jackson; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
32.7%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#63 B.Mitchell) 5 yards from TCU04 to TCU09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
32.8%
(08:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left thrown to TCU00 QB hurried by #37 H.HooperSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
27.0%
(07:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:52 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5429% → 28%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.9%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Hayes thrown to TCU38Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
28.7%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU38 (#5 N.Taumoepeau; #48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
28.8%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete deep left to #80 J.Hayes thrown to BYU40Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+9
28.1%
(07:00) #48 J.Chance punt 40 yards to the BYU22 #19 T.Bachmeier return 9 yards to the BYU31 (#32 D.Arkansas; #18 K.McFadden)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:5272% → 70%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
28.0%
(06:50) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 3 yards loss to the BYU28 (#6 K.Jackson)Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+9
28.9%
(06:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #3 K.Kasper caught at BYU35, for 9 yards to the BYU37 (#3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
27.8%
(05:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU40, for 5 yards to the BYU42 (#37 H.Hooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
27.0%
(04:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU50Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
27.4%
(04:50) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right thrown to BYU50 QB hurried by #6 K.Jackson PENALTY BYU Holding (#52 B.Mulitalo) 10 yards from BYU42 to BYU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
29.0%
(04:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Saleapaga II thrown to BYU29Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+5
29.7%
(04:38) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU37 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
30.0%
(04:02) #19 F.Shurtz punt 39 yards to the TCU24 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2429% → 46%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.7%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 4 yards gain to the TCU28 (#22 T.Prassas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
29.0%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU29 (#90 H.Clegg; #45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+30
28.0%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU40, for 30 yards to the BYU41 (#31 J.Clifton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
31.5%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #26 J.Payne caught at BYU43, for 17 yards to the BYU24 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
32.9%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the BYU23 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+10
33.0%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU13, for 10 yards to the BYU13 (#15 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
33.1%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush right for 0 yards to the BYU13 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
46.4%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU00, for 13 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:1561% → 63%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
38.7%
(00:23) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush left for 16 yards gain to the BYU41 (#0 Z.Chapman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.3%
(00:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Phillips thrown to TCU43 QB hurried by #6 K.JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
37.1%
(00:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU41, for 4 yards to the BYU45 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
37.2%
(00:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU42, for 5 yards to the BYU50 (#1 V.Glover), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
50
0
37.2%
(00:03) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep middle to #13 J.Phillips thrown to TCU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1743% → 41%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 15 yards gain to the TCU40 (#31 J.Clifton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.3%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #81 K.Ashley thrown to TCU35 broken up by #90 H.CleggSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
44.5%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #18 E.Small thrown to BYU48Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-8
43.4%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TCU32 (#30 B.Lindsey)Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
41.4%
(13:40) #48 J.Chance punt 31 yards to the BYU37, out of bounds at BYU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:5261% → 62%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
39.0%
(13:32) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 9 yards gain to the BYU46 (#97 P.Oyewale; #22 J.Lester)Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
37.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU46 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
38.5%
(12:13) #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU48 (#14 J.Schobel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.3%
(11:34) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 0 yards to the BYU48 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
39.2%
(10:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #13 J.Phillips caught at TCU47, for 6 yards to the TCU46 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+8
38.9%
(10:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 8 yards gain to the TCU38 (#3 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
38.6%
(09:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 2 yards to the TCU40 (#16 K.Hayward) PENALTY TCU Holding (#37 H.Hooper) 10 yards from TCU38 to TCU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
37.4%
(09:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to TCU00Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
37.9%
(09:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 3 yards loss to the TCU31 fumbled by #47 B.Bachmeier at TCU30 recovered by BYU #20 J.Tonga at TCU31 (#6 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
41.2%
(08:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU31 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
37.7%
(07:38) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 07:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0038% → 38%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.2%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU30 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
39.1%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU33 (#21 M.Hall)Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
39.6%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 0 yards to the TCU33 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
37.7%
(05:35) #48 J.Chance punt 66 yards to the BYU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:3263% → 60%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
37.2%
(05:26) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU06 (#1 V.Glover)Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+1
36.8%
(04:50) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU07 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+13
38.3%
(04:16) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #3 K.Kasper caught at BYU15, for 13 yards to the BYU20 (#37 H.Hooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
36.0%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#64 K.Sfarcioc) 5 yards from BYU20 to BYU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
36.4%
(03:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #20 J.Tonga thrown to BYU10 broken up by #0 Z.ChapmanSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+2
36.8%
(03:13) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU17 (#0 Z.Chapman)Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
38.3%
(02:35) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU17, for 0 yards to the BYU17 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
39.8%
(02:01) #19 F.Shurtz punt 48 yards to the TCU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0140% → 40%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
40.0%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU30, for 4 yards to the TCU39 (#22 T.Prassas), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
43.2%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU40 (#22 T.Prassas; #45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
41.8%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU48, for 13 yards to the BYU47 (#31 J.Clifton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
45.0%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU49, for 1 yard to the BYU46 (#31 J.Clifton)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
45.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU44 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-1
44.6%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard loss to the BYU45 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
39.8%
(13:43) #48 J.Chance punt 37 yards to the BYU08, out of bounds at BYU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0662% → 61%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
37.7%
(13:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU12 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-4
37.7%
(12:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BYU08 (#14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+3
37.7%
(12:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 3 yards gain to the BYU11 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
38.7%
(11:27) #19 F.Shurtz punt 44 yards to the TCU45 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:2143% → 39%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.2%
PENALTY BYU Offside (#57 K.Tanuvasa) 5 yards from TCU45 to TCU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 5
50
+8
44.7%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BYU42 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
42.4%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 13 yards gain to the BYU29 (#30 B.Lindsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
45.4%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard loss to the BYU30 (#21 M.Hall; #5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+1
45.3%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard gain to the BYU29 (#4 C.Uluave)Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+1
42.7%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at BYU30, for 1 yard to the BYU28 (#4 C.Uluave)Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
38.9%
(08:04) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 08:01, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:4269% → 94%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
30.8%
(07:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU22, for 8 yards to the BYU36 (#15 D.Hidrogo; #37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+3
28.2%
(07:23) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 3 yards gain to the BYU39 (#15 D.Hidrogo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
27.1%
(06:40) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU38, for 4 yards to the BYU43 (#1 V.Glover)Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+9
24.1%
(05:56) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU48 (#37 H.Hooper; #9 C.Woodfork), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.0%
(05:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Saleapaga II thrown to BYU47Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
23.1%
(05:11) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 5 yards gain to the TCU43 (#3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
23.0%
(04:31) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 10 yards gain to the TCU33 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
19.9%
(03:46) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TCU19 (#1 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
17.8%
(03:01) #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TCU21 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
6.4%
(02:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 21 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:06, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY TCU Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:166% → 13%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
6.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU48, for 27 yards to the TCU50 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
50
-7
6.5%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TCU43 (#31 J.Clifton)Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+15
4.9%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU45, for 15 yards to the BYU42 (#11 F.Satuala; #0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+13
6.4%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at BYU29, for 13 yards to the BYU29 (#1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
7.6%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #26 J.Payne caught at BYU28, for 1 yard to the BYU28 (#31 J.Clifton)Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
5.7%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #2 J.Denman caught at BYU30, for 2 yards to the BYU26 (#4 C.Uluave; #48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
5.0%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Ashley thrown to BYU08Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
13.0%
(00:34) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 00:32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21END OF HALF
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0296% → 95%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
4.3%
(00:29) Kneel down by #47 B.Bachmeier at TCU48 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
4.6%
(00:28) Kneel down by #47 B.Bachmeier at TCU50 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at BYU00, for 13 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)
+13.7
TD · Q4 2:06
(02:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 21 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:06, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) PENALTY TCU Offside declined
-11.4
FG · Q4 0:32
Timeout BYU, clock 00:32
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com