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TCU

TCU 13 at UCF 21

UCF
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:30 · (05:37) #49 A.Bertrams punt 59 yards to the TCU00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+22.2Pregame prior−0.9Garbage-time factor+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score differential+3.8Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:58: (05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #18 C.Piening caught at TCU04, for 19 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:58, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks) — UCF win probability +8.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:25: (03:27) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 03:25 — TCU win probability +9.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:25: (12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:25 #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks) — UCF win probability +19.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44: Timeout TCU, clock 01:44 — TCU win probability +8.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:37: (01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF28 (#11 M.Short; #92 A.Din-Mbuh) — UCF win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 2:29TCU 4th & 13 at UCF 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:08UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:00TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:43UCF 4th & 2 at TCU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:39TCU 4th & 1 at UCF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−2.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:30TCU 4th & 11 at UCF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:10UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:25TCU 4th & 22 at UCF 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−3.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:07TCU 4th & 14 at UCF 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:30UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 41, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:08UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:27UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:48TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:25UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5060% → 60%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.8%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #26 J.Payne thrown to TCU27 QB hurried by #38 J.JenningsSimilar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
39.8%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 2 yards gain to the TCU32 (#0 H.Lockett)Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+3
40.1%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at TCU41, for 14 yards to the TCU46 fumbled by #18 E.Small at TCU41 forced by #1 J.Bellamy recovered by UCF #4 B.Marshall at TCU46 #4 B.Marshall return 3 yards to the TCU43 (#26 J.Payne)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3840% → 43%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
40.2%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #5 J.Derry caught at TCU38, for 5 yards to the TCU38 (#3 M.Carroll) PENALTY UCF Pass Interference (#0 D.Wade) 10 yards from TCU43 to UCF47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+3
40.4%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF48, for 3 yards to the UCF50, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 17
50
+15
40.6%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #35 A.Addae caught at TCU35, for 15 yards to the TCU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+10
41.0%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TCU25 (#1 V.Glover; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.3%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU24 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+11
41.6%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 11 yards gain to the TCU13 (#1 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
43.4%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush right for 13 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:27, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2557% → 59%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
42.9%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at UCF35, for 43 yards to the UCF32 (#25 R.Stroud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
42.4%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #80 J.Hayes caught at UCF26, for 12 yards to the UCF20 (#25 R.Stroud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
42.8%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 5 yards gain to the UCF15 (#7 A.Jackson; #8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
43.0%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at UCF17, for 4 yards to the UCF11 (#38 J.Jennings)Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
43.7%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF07 (#34 J.Culbreath; #10 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
43.6%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 6 yards gain to the UCF01 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.9%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:48 #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:1542% → 44%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
42.3%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #2 T.Hornes caught at UCF39, for 16 yards to the UCF41 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
43.1%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #5 J.Derry caught at UCF38, for 6 yards to the UCF47 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
43.5%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF45, for 3 yards to the UCF50 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 1
50
+5
43.5%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU45 fumbled by #12 K.Jenkins at TCU47 forced by #1 V.Glover recovered by TCU #1 V.Glover at TCU45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5058% → 57%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.7%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Payne thrown to TCU42Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
42.0%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU46 (#0 H.Lockett)Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+22
42.4%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #18 E.Small caught at UCF39, for 22 yards to the UCF32 (#21 T.Bartrum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
41.3%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF30 (#99 T.Collins)Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
41.3%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 5 yards loss to the UCF35 fumbled by #2 J.Denman at UCF35 recovered by TCU #2 J.Denman at UCF35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
42.6%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Denman thrown to UCF28Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
43.4%
(02:35) #48 J.Chance punt 25 yards to the UCF10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1544% → 43%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
43.7%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush left for 4 yards gain to the UCF14 (#11 M.Short; #4 G.Jackson)Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
43.9%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCF19 (#37 H.Hooper; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
43.5%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Derry thrown to UCF28Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+11
43.1%
(01:10) #49 A.Bertrams punt 58 yards to the TCU23 #18 E.Small return 11 yards to the TCU34 (#88 G.Brousseau)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5857% → 56%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
42.8%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 4 yards loss to the TCU30 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 14
OWN 30
-1
43.6%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 1 yard to the TCU29 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+14
44.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU43, for 14 yards to the TCU43, out of bounds at TCU43Similar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
43.2%
(14:27) PENALTY TCU Illegal Snap (#59 J.Buchanon) 5 yards from TCU43 to TCU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
44.2%
(14:05) #48 J.Chance punt 34 yards to the UCF28, out of bounds at UCF28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:1245% → 46%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.1%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 0 yards to the UCF28 (#16 K.Hayward) PENALTY TCU Face Mask (#16 K.Hayward) 15 yards from UCF28 to UCF43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.5%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF45 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
46.9%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #26 D.Watson caught at UCF39, for 2 yards to the UCF47 (#11 M.Short; #37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+4
46.4%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF50, for 4 yards to the TCU49 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+1
46.2%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU48 (#15 D.Hidrogo), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0957% → 58%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Ashley thrown to UCF48Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
43.0%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to UCF40Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
43.7%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Martin rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UCF43 (#24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+1
43.6%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF42 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+37
42.3%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #6 J.Scott caught at UCF06, for 37 yards to the UCF05 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.3%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#26 J.Payne) 5 yards from UCF05 to UCF10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
41.4%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to UCF00 broken up by #8 D.HendersonSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
41.4%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard loss to the UCF11 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
42.7%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #18 E.Small thrown to UCF00Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
41.9%
(08:30) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 08:30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2542% → 53%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.0%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF27 (#11 M.Short; #97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
41.2%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #5 J.Derry caught at UCF41, for 22 yards to the UCF49 (#4 G.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
43.7%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #0 D.Wade caught at TCU46, for 9 yards to the TCU42 (#11 M.Short)Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+14
44.2%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 14 yards gain to the TCU28 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Personal Foul (#2 J.Johnson) 14 yards from TCU28 to TCU14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
45.1%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TCU20 (#9 C.Woodfork)Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+1
44.7%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #0 D.Wade caught at TCU20, for 1 yard to the TCU19 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+19
52.9%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #18 C.Piening caught at TCU04, for 19 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:58, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3249% → 49%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
51.0%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU22 (#2 J.Williams; #93 B.Gurley Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-2
50.8%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #1 J.Bellamy at TCU38 #1 J.Bellamy return 2 yards to the TCU36 (#88 K.Pimpton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FUMBLE
12 plays · 21 yds · 2:4356% → 58%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
55.5%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush left for 9 yards gain to the TCU27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
55.9%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU24 (#97 P.Oyewale; #14 J.Schobel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
56.4%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #13 C.Rollerson caught at TCU20, for 7 yards to the TCU17 (#4 G.Jackson)Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
56.7%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU16 (#4 G.Jackson; #37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
55.9%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU13 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
56.6%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU10 (#95 M.Deal)Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
58.5%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU10 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-5
57.7%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TCU15 (#6 K.Jackson), fumble by #12 K.Jenkins recovered by TCU #6 K.Jackson at TCU15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:1042% → 41%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
58.0%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete deep middle to #81 K.Ashley thrown to TCU37Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
58.5%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU15, for 4 yards to the TCU19 (#24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
59.5%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 7 yards gain to the TCU26 (#34 J.Culbreath), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
59.1%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU28, for 7 yards to the TCU33 (#1 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
57.4%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #81 K.Ashley thrown to TCU39 QB hurried by #99 T.CollinsSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
57.9%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Payne thrown to TCU32 QB hurried by #92 J.LafontantSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+10
59.3%
(00:03) #48 J.Chance punt 54 yards to the UCF13 #7 A.Jackson return 10 yards to the UCF23 (#15 D.Hidrogo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4555% → 54%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF26, for 7 yards to the UCF32 (#4 G.Jackson)Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-6
56.6%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 6 yards loss to the UCF26 (#14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
54.0%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCF32 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
54.3%
(13:12) #49 A.Bertrams punt 45 yards to the TCU23 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FG
19 plays · 50 yds · 9:3645% → 41%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
55.0%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU28, for 7 yards to the TCU30 (#4 B.Marshall)Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
53.7%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU34, for 5 yards to the TCU35 (#2 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
54.6%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard gain to the TCU36 (#4 B.Marshall)Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+13
54.9%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #6 J.Scott caught at TCU49, for 13 yards to the TCU49 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
53.4%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TCU42 (#99 T.Collins, #6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+5
60.5%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU47 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+13
61.3%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #88 K.Pimpton caught at UCF44, for 13 yards to the UCF40 (#2 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
57.8%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UCF29 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
56.5%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the UCF24 (#7 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
56.7%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at UCF28, for 1 yard to the UCF23 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
58.8%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #6 J.Scott caught at UCF20, for 8 yards to the UCF15 (#24 T.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
57.1%
(06:40) PENALTY TCU False Start (#88 K.Pimpton) 5 yards from UCF15 to UCF20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+10
61.3%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Martin rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF18 (#24 T.Curtis) PENALTY TCU Holding (#56 B.Taylor-Whitfield) 10 yards from UCF20 to UCF30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 25
OPP 30
-6
63.1%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UCF36 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 31
OPP 36
+2
66.7%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF34 (#10 S.Edwards)Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 29
OPP 34
+7
68.6%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #6 J.Scott caught at UCF30, for 7 yards to the UCF27 QB hurried by #6 I.Nixon (#14 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 22
OPP 27
+45
58.9%
(03:27) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 03:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5460% → 89%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.6%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF28 (#97 P.Oyewale) PENALTY TCU Holding (#90 K.Mickell) 10 yards from UCF28 to UCF38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
61.3%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF40 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+13
62.3%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #5 J.Derry caught at UCF48, for 13 yards to the TCU47 (#7 J.Simms), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
64.5%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #18 C.Piening caught at TCU40, for 11 yards to the TCU36 (#11 M.Short), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
65.0%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #4 T.Swint caught at TCU40, for 3 yards to the TCU33 (#16 K.Hayward)Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
67.2%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #0 D.Wade caught at TCU29, for 6 yards to the TCU27 (#2 J.Johnson; #4 G.Jackson)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
65.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU26 (#37 H.Hooper) PENALTY TCU Offside 5 yards from TCU27 to TCU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
67.8%
(14:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush left for 3 yards loss to the TCU25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+5
67.2%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU20 (#11 M.Short)Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
66.3%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Swint thrown to TCU13 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#7 J.Simms) 9 yards from TCU20 to TCU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
68.3%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU06 (#4 G.Jackson) PENALTY TCU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#14 J.Schobel) 3 yards from TCU06 to TCU03, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.0%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU01 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:25 #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:1216% → 11%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.5%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU28 (#38 J.Jennings; #7 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
84.4%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU42, for 14 yards to the TCU42, out of bounds at TCU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
83.8%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Martin rush right for 2 yards loss to the TCU40 (#12 A.Koumba; #92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+8
84.7%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU37, for 8 yards to the TCU48 (#12 A.Koumba; #4 B.Marshall)Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
83.7%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at UCF43, for 9 yards to the UCF43 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UCF Roughing The Passer (#38 J.Jennings) 15 yards from UCF43 to UCF28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
82.8%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Everhart rush left for 4 yards loss to the UCF32 (#1 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+5
85.3%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at UCF28, for 5 yards to the UCF27 (#7 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+5
85.4%
(08:34) PENALTY TCU False Start 5 yards from UCF27 to UCF32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
87.3%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to UCF15Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
89.0%
(08:07) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 08:02, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2690% → 93%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.3%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 0 yards to the UCF32 (#27 L.Walker; #2 J.Johnson) PENALTY UCF UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#55 J.Maiava) 15 yards from UCF32 to UCF17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 25
OWN 17
-1
90.3%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF15, for 1 yard loss to the UCF16 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 26
OWN 16
+11
90.7%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 11 yards gain to the UCF27, out of bounds at UCF27Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+14
91.1%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #6 R.Farmer caught at UCF26, for 14 yards to the UCF41 (#37 H.Hooper; #1 V.Glover)Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
93.0%
(05:37) #49 A.Bertrams punt 59 yards to the TCU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19INT
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:299% → 9%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.2%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU19, for 0 yards to the TCU20 (#24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.9%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to TCU30 QB hurried by #0 H.LockettSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+29
92.6%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU49, for 29 yards to the TCU49 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
89.8%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #6 J.Scott caught at UCF36, for 15 yards to the UCF36 (#32 M.Occhipinti), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.0%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #18 E.Small thrown to UCF33Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
89.4%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at UCF31, for 15 yards to the UCF21 (#24 T.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
87.3%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF19 (#95 R.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-9
88.2%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UCF28 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 17
OPP 28
-19
91.5%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #7 A.Jackson at UCF07 QB hurried by #92 J.Lafontant #7 A.Jackson return 19 yards to the UCF26 (#59 J.Buchanon; #18 E.Small)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.0%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 0 yards to the UCF26 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
96.8%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF28 (#11 M.Short; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+2
97.2%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF30 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
98.3%
(00:13) #49 A.Bertrams punt 50 yards to the TCU20, out of bounds at TCU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU24, for 4 yards to the TCU24 lateral to #18 E.Small for 0 yards to the TCU24 fumbled by #18 E.Small at TCU24 recovered by UCF #99 T.Collins at TCU24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:25
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Chambers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:25 #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)
+19.6
FG · Q3 3:25
(03:27) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 03:25
-9.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44
Timeout TCU, clock 01:44
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com