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ARIZ

Arizona 17 at BYU 28

BYU
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:24 · (08:24) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU18, for 3 yards to the BYU18 (#22 T.Prassas; #32 C.DeVries), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:24) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU18, for 4 yards to the BYU17 (#32 C.DeVries; #22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWN)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+2.7Home team on offense+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:46: B. Bachmeier pass to R. Frischknecht for 25 yds, for a TD (M. Dunn KICK) — BYU win probability +4.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:03: (02:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #8 S.King caught at BYU00, for 16 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:03, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +17.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:37: (09:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 6 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:37 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +14.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:58: (10:01) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #8 S.King thrown to BYU29 — ARIZ win probability +8.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 6:10: (06:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 12 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +13.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:39BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:24ARIZ 4th & 7 at BYU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:33ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:18BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:38BYU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:00ARIZ 4th & 8 at BYU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:44BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:01ARIZ 4th & 10 at BYU 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:58BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−4.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:24ARIZ 4th & 4 at BYU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:00ARIZ 4th & 24 at ARIZ 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:10ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:16BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:46BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:03ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:37BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:10BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4330% → 34%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ28, for 7 yards to the ARIZ32, out of bounds at ARIZ32Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
69.5%
(14:42) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ36 (#4 C.Uluave; #5 N.Taumoepeau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
69.4%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ48, for 15 yards to the BYU49 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
69.3%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #12 T.Spivey caught at BYU48, for 7 yards to the BYU42 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
69.1%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Hunter rush left for 3 yards gain to the BYU39 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
68.9%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at BYU32, for 9 yards to the BYU30 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
68.7%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU27 (#30 B.Lindsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
68.5%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to BYU16 QB hurried by #48 B.Schoonover and #90 H.CleggSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
68.5%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #24 Q.Craig caught at BYU27, for 4 yards to the BYU23, out of bounds at BYU23Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+10
68.5%
(10:38) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #5 G.Richardson caught at BYU14, for 10 yards to the BYU13 (#0 E.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
68.2%
(10:02) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU11 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
66.1%
(09:20) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 11 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:10, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:3067% → 66%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.9%
(09:09) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU30 (#95 L.Palu) PENALTY BYU Holding (#75 A.Gentry) 10 yards from BYU25 to BYU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
66.6%
(08:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU20, for 11 yards to the BYU26 (#35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
66.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU29, for 7 yards to the BYU33 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
66.3%
(07:49) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU37 broken up by #8 J.ColeSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.0%
(07:45) #19 F.Shurtz punt 46 yards to the ARIZ21 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3134% → 35%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
65.6%
(07:39) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ25, for 5 yards to the ARIZ26 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
65.2%
(07:13) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 14 yards gain to the ARIZ40 (#0 E.Johnson) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#73 M.Lado) 10 yards from ARIZ26 to ARIZ16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+7
65.4%
(06:52) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ23 (#46 K.Wall)Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-17
65.0%
(06:06) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass intercepted by #4 C.Uluave at ARIZ26 QB hurried by #16 I.Glasker #4 C.Uluave return 17 yards to the ARIZ09 (#24 Q.Craig)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3566% → 69%
Q1 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.0%
(05:57) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ06 (#7 C.Kennedy; #99 M.Pese)Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.2%
(05:19) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:16. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:3732% → 35%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.7%
(05:16) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #3 K.Reescano caught at ARIZ28, for 4 yards to the ARIZ29 (#4 C.Uluave), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
67.4%
(04:36) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ34 (#16 I.Glasker; #11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
67.1%
(04:13) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ40 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.7%
(03:50) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #5 G.Richardson thrown to BYU15Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
66.9%
(03:43) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ44 (#1 T.Alexander)Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
66.5%
(02:59) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #11 C.Hunter caught at BYU49, for 12 yards to the BYU44 (#15 J.Williams; #11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
65.4%
(02:35) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #24 Q.Craig caught at BYU40, for 7 yards to the BYU37 (#4 C.Uluave; #30 B.Lindsey)Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+14
65.1%
(02:17) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #14 C.Rusk caught at BYU37, for 14 yards to the BYU23 (#4 C.Uluave), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
64.8%
(01:56) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU19 (#16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-1
64.5%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard loss to the BYU20 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
64.9%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to BYU00Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
65.0%
(00:27) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson), clock 00:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3765% → 72%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.2%
(00:23) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 11 yards gain to the BYU36 (#23 G.Hunter; #5 M.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
65.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 9 yards gain to the BYU45 (#23 G.Hunter)Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
66.4%
(14:25) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 1 yard gain to the BYU46 (#96 Z.Siulepa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.2%
(13:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #7 W.Lyons thrown to ARIZ40Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
65.4%
(13:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #2 R.Saleapaga II thrown to ARIZ40Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+29
64.7%
(13:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ35, for 29 yards to the ARIZ25 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.1%
(12:56) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to ARIZ00Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
71.5%
B. Bachmeier pass to R. Frischknecht for 25 yds, for a TD (M. Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0229% → 28%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.1%
(12:45) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at ARIZ25, for 6 yards to the ARIZ31 (#32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
70.5%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ36 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
70.6%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ30 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+14
71.5%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ARIZ44 (#5 N.Taumoepeau; #0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
70.7%
(10:19) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARIZ43 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
71.7%
(09:40) #37 C.Ridley punt 57 yards to the BYU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0771% → 70%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
70.5%
(09:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 10 yards to the BYU10 (#95 L.Palu)Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+4
70.4%
(08:52) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU10, for 4 yards to the BYU14 (#48 C.Blomstrom), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+6
70.6%
(08:05) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU16, for 6 yards to the BYU20 (#2 D.Austin)Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
69.9%
(07:28) #19 F.Shurtz punt 52 yards to the ARIZ28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:0927% → 47%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.5%
(07:18) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ28 (#46 K.Wall)Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
74.1%
(06:44) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ36, for 9 yards to the ARIZ37 (#32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
73.4%
(06:11) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ38 (#46 K.Wall; #57 K.Tanuvasa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
73.1%
(05:52) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ40 (#21 M.Hall; #46 K.Wall)Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
73.0%
(05:15) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARIZ48 (#46 K.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
72.5%
(04:38) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU48, for 12 yards to the BYU40 (#0 E.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
71.9%
(04:15) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU37, for 4 yards to the BYU36 (#22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+20
71.6%
(03:46) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 20 yards gain to the BYU16 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
70.6%
(03:08) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #3 K.Reescano caught at BYU20, for 1 yard to the BYU15 (#1 T.Alexander; #13 T.Akana) PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Formation 5 yards from BYU16 to BYU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+5
70.7%
(02:34) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU16 (#32 C.DeVries), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
53.0%
(02:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #8 S.King caught at BYU00, for 16 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:03, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 1:1759% → 57%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
58.6%
(02:02) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 20 yards gain to the BYU45 (#6 T.Brown; #15 M.Hartzog), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.2%
(01:55) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at BYU50, for 5 yards to the BYU50, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 5
50
+4
61.0%
(01:37) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ46, for 4 yards to the ARIZ46 (#8 J.Cole)Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
60.6%
(01:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ45 (#15 M.Hartzog), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.3%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Phillips thrown to ARIZ29Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
60.8%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #4 L.Martin thrown to ARIZ46 QB hurried by #99 M.PeseSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
58.9%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep right to #1 L.Glasker thrown to ARIZ21 QB hurried by #42 D.LolesioSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+5
57.3%
PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
57.2%
(00:47) #19 F.Shurtz punt 36 yards to the ARIZ09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
57.4%
(00:36) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ12 (#32 C.DeVries)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1659% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 5 yards gain to the BYU30 (#99 M.Pese; #3 T.Smith)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
58.4%
(14:24) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #12 P.Rex caught at BYU34, for 8 yards to the BYU38 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
59.0%
(13:49) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 9 yards gain to the BYU47 (#35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
60.6%
(13:07) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ47 (#7 C.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
60.5%
(12:31) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ43 (#38 K.Moorer Jr.) PENALTY BYU Holding (#75 A.Gentry) 9 yards from ARIZ47 to BYU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 19
OWN 44
+5
57.5%
(12:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 R.Saleapaga II caught at BYU45, for 5 yards to the BYU49 (#5 M.Harris)Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+7
57.0%
(11:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at ARIZ49, for 7 yards to the ARIZ44 (#35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+15
59.3%
(11:03) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 15 yards gain to the ARIZ29 (#8 J.Cole; #15 M.Hartzog), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
61.2%
(10:24) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short to #4 L.Martin caught at ARIZ29, for 23 yards to the ARIZ06 (#35 Q.Olson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.2%
(09:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 6 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:37 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2531% → 31%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ38 (#16 I.Glasker; #32 C.DeVries) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#97 K.Fonohema) 15 yards from ARIZ38 to BYU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.6%
(09:02) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep left to #14 C.Rusk thrown to BYU21 QB hurried by #5 N.Taumoepeau and #97 K.FonohemaSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
66.5%
(08:55) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU44 (#4 C.Uluave; #5 N.Taumoepeau) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#59 R.Tapa'atoutai) 10 yards from BYU47 to ARIZ43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+11
69.3%
(08:28) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #24 Q.Craig caught at ARIZ47, for 11 yards to the BYU46 (#11 F.Satuala), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+1
67.1%
(07:43) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU46, for 1 yard to the BYU45 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
69.1%
(07:06) #37 C.Ridley punt 39 yards to the BYU06 fair catch by #32 C.DeVries at BYU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:1272% → 70%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
72.3%
(06:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU11Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
72.1%
(06:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU09 (#7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+4
71.0%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#75 A.Gentry) 4 yards from BYU09 to BYU05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+2
71.0%
PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game (#47 B.Bachmeier) 2 yards from BYU05 to BYU03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 13
OWN 3
+5
71.1%
(05:17) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU05 (#7 C.Kennedy) PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Substitution 5 yards from BYU03 to BYU08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+4
70.7%
(05:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU24, for 21 yards to the BYU29 (#35 Q.Olson; #15 M.Hartzog) PENALTY BYU Holding (#64 K.Sfarcioc) 4 yards from BYU08 to BYU04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+3
71.3%
(04:34) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU07 (#3 T.Smith; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 9
OWN 7
+5
70.2%
(03:52) #19 F.Shurtz punt 53 yards to the ARIZ40 #20 C.Smith return 5 yards to the ARIZ45, out of bounds at ARIZ45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:4331% → 29%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
68.6%
(03:44) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BYU49, End Of Play PENALTY ARIZ Personal Foul (#59 R.Tapa'atoutai) 15 yards from ARIZ45 to ARIZ30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+4
71.5%
(03:21) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ34 (#0 E.Johnson; #90 H.Clegg)Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+30
71.9%
(02:40) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #18 B.Phelps caught at ARIZ38, for 30 yards to the BYU36 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.9%
(02:05) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush left for 0 yards to the BYU36 (#16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
67.0%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (#73 M.Lado) 5 yards from BYU36 to BYU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
69.4%
(01:06) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to BYU16 broken up by #15 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+5
71.0%
(01:01) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #20 C.Smith caught at BYU41, for 5 yards to the BYU36 (#15 J.Williams; #32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
71.3%
(00:09) #37 C.Ridley punt 36 yards to the BYU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0375% → 73%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.4%
(00:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 2 yards gain to the BYU22 (#99 M.Pese; #48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
75.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 5 yards gain to the BYU27, out of bounds at BYU27Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
74.9%
(14:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU28, for 4 yards to the BYU31 (#17 L.Molette III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
76.0%
(13:52) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 1 yard gain to the BYU32 (#17 L.Molette III; #48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
75.7%
(13:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU36Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
74.7%
(13:10) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU38 PENALTY BYU Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
73.4%
(13:05) #19 F.Shurtz punt 43 yards to the ARIZ25 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:2123% → 26%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.9%
(12:58) Shotgun #12 T.Spivey rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ26 (#11 F.Satuala; #32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
77.1%
(12:30) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #14 C.Rusk thrown to ARIZ48 QB hurried by #4 C.Uluave PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (#22 T.Prassas) 15 yards from ARIZ26 to ARIZ41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.7%
(12:22) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 0 yards to the ARIZ41 (#16 I.Glasker; #13 T.Akana)Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
75.7%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (#73 M.Lado) 5 yards from ARIZ41 to ARIZ36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+3
77.5%
(11:12) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ39 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+34
77.8%
(10:49) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep middle to #14 C.Rusk caught at BYU30, for 34 yards to the BYU27 (#32 C.DeVries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
68.9%
(10:01) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #8 S.King thrown to BYU29Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
69.7%
(09:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU26 (#31 J.Clifton)Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+5
72.0%
(09:11) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #8 S.King caught at BYU24, for 5 yards to the BYU21 (#16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+3
74.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU18, for 3 yards to the BYU18 (#22 T.Prassas; #32 C.DeVries), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:24) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at BYU18, for 4 yards to the BYU17 (#32 C.DeVries; #22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWN)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:5778% → 98%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
78.3%
(08:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU27 (#23 G.Hunter; #48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+61
80.5%
(07:40) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep right to #1 L.Glasker caught at ARIZ21, for 61 yards to the ARIZ12 (#12 D.Bootle II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
84.3%
(06:51) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ12 (#99 M.Pese)Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.8%
(06:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 12 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:035% → 5%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
94.6%
(06:10) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ18 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-4
94.9%
(05:42) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ11 (#13 T.Akana, #57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
95.3%
(05:14) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to ARIZ15 broken up by #32 C.DeVriesSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
95.5%
(05:08) #37 C.Ridley punt 44 yards to the BYU45 fair catch by #32 C.DeVries at BYU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF GAME
17 plays · 49 yds · 4:2598% → 99%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
98.4%
(04:59) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ49 (#99 M.Pese; #96 Z.Siulepa)Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
98.5%
(04:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ45 (#6 T.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
98.7%
(04:03) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ARIZ33 (#3 T.Smith; #7 C.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.7%
(03:54) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ32 (#99 M.Pese; #44 P.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
98.7%
(03:51) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush right for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ27 (#15 M.Hartzog), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
98.8%
(03:11) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ22 (#6 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.9%
(02:28) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 0 yards to the ARIZ22 (#17 L.Molette III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.1%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ19 (#3 T.Smith)Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+16
99.0%
(01:13) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 16 yards gain to the ARIZ03 (#6 T.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
98.7%
(01:04) Kneel down by BYU at ARIZ05 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
98.7%
(00:28) Kneel down by BYU at ARIZ06 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:03
(02:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #8 S.King caught at BYU00, for 16 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:03, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
-17.7
TD · Q3 9:37
(09:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 6 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:37 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
+14
TD · Q4 6:10
(06:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at ARIZ00, for 12 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com