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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 0 at Kansas 55

KU
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · (11:28) #92 A.Logan punt 57 yards to the KAN18 #3 K.Kubecka return 13 yards to the KAN31 (#25 E.Sherman; #59 H.Hamlin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+21.1Home team on offense+29.3Score differential+25.2Blowout margin+12.0Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:03: (06:05) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte), clock 06:03 — MTSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:13: (13:17) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush right for 6 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte) — KU win probability +2.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:23: (04:27) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte) — KU win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:11: (00:14) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte), clock 00:11 — KU win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:20: (12:25) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:20, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte) — KU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:50MTSU 4th & 13 at KU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:03KU 4th & 14 at MTSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:01MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:36MTSU 4th & 13 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:25KU 4th & 11 at KU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:23MTSU 4th & 5 at KU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11KU 4th & 17 at MTSU 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:19MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33KU 4th & 4 at KU 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:57MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 27, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:23MTSU 4th & 15 at KU 44, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:34MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 23, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:34MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12KU 4th & 7 at MTSU 39, up 55
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 13:13KU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:23KU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:20KU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:21KU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:35KU Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:22KU Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0710% → 11%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Lacy thrown to MTSU27Similar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.3%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU25, for 4 yards to the MTSU29 (#4 T.Lathan; #3 C.Gordon)Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
90.2%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU38, for 10 yards to the MTSU39 (#3 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.0%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MTSU43 (#94 B.Herold; #27 T.Davis)Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+13
89.7%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush right for 13 yards gain to the KAN44, out of bounds at KAN44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.5%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep right to #85 N.Clifton thrown to KAN10 broken up by #27 T.DavisSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
89.5%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KAN45 (#96 J.Conde; #7 D.Crouch)Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-2
89.3%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at KAN47, for 2 yards loss to the KAN47 (#7 D.Crouch)Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
89.3%
(10:59) #92 A.Logan punt 47 yards to the KAN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3989% → 88%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
89.2%
(10:50) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KAN23 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
89.0%
(10:19) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #0 N.Cox caught at KAN30, for 8 yards to the KAN31 (#2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
88.9%
(09:43) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KAN40 (#11 J.Johnson; #2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-1
89.0%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KAN39 (#40 B.Ausmer)Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
88.7%
(08:49) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush left for 6 yards gain to the KAN45, out of bounds at KAN45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
88.6%
(08:12) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 34 yards gain to the MTSU21 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
88.7%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #3 K.Kubecka caught at MTSU18, for 6 yards to the MTSU15 (#0 K.Woods)Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
88.5%
(07:19) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Pickett thrown to MTSU00Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
88.4%
(07:14) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MTSU02 (#13 A.Taylor; #26 K.Smith) PENALTY KAN Personal Foul (#0 N.Cox) 15 yards from MTSU15 to MTSU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+5
88.0%
(06:44) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU25 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
88.0%
(06:05) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte), clock 06:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5512% → 12%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.2%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU30, for 15 yards to the MTSU40 (#4 T.Lathan; #3 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.8%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU40 (#4 T.Lathan; #9 D.Brinkley)Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.7%
(04:46) PENALTY MTSU False Start (#65 B.Smith) 5 yards from MTSU40 to MTSU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
87.8%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep middle to #3 C.Lacy thrown to KAN45 broken up by #27 T.DavisSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
87.9%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Allen thrown to KAN49 QB hurried by #33 L.Harris IIISimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
88.0%
(04:07) #92 A.Logan punt 40 yards to the KAN25 fair catch by #3 K.Kubecka at KAN25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4288% → 89%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.5%
(04:00) Shotgun #3 K.Kubecka rush left for 12 yards gain to the KAN37 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.5%
(03:29) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush middle for 11 yards gain to the KAN48 (#0 K.Woods; #16 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.7%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete deep right to #0 N.Cox thrown to MTSU05Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.5%
(03:05) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #7 C.Pickett caught at KAN45, for 1 yard to the KAN49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+12
86.9%
(02:25) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MTSU39 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.3%
(01:46) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MTSU35 (#23 K.Minifield)Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
87.3%
(01:07) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 3 yards gain to the MTSU32 (#13 A.Taylor; #93 A.Butts). #51 K.Carpenter injured on the playSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
86.9%
(00:51) Shotgun #3 K.Kubecka rush left for 4 yards gain to the MTSU28 (#13 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
87.1%
(00:23) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #5 N.McMillan caught at MTSU24, for 7 yards to the MTSU21 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+7
87.0%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MTSU14 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
87.0%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU07 (#2 J.Lowe), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
86.8%
(14:22) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush right for 6 yards gain to the MTSU01 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.7%
(13:39) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU01 (#26 K.Smith) PENALTY KAN Illegal Formation 5 yards from MTSU01 to MTSU06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.9%
(13:17) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush right for 6 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
88.0%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep right to #3 C.Lacy thrown to KAN35 PENALTY KAN Holding (#12 J.Harris) 10 yards from MTSU43 to KAN47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
87.7%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MTSU49 (#9 D.Brinkley)Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+1
88.0%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU50 (#94 B.Herold)Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 13
50
0
87.9%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. thrown to MTSU48 QB hurried by #2 S.GibbsSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 13
50
0
88.3%
(11:41) #92 A.Logan punt 50 yards to the KAN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0588% → 87%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.1%
(11:35) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete deep right to #0 N.Cox thrown to KAN45Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.0%
(11:29) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #44 C.Bruhn caught at KAN25, for 16 yards to the KAN36 (#16 J.Thompson) PENALTY KAN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#3 K.Kubecka) 5 yards from KAN20 to KAN15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+5
88.0%
(10:55) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KAN20 (#90 J.Bodford)Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+14
87.6%
(10:12) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush right for 14 yards gain to the KAN34 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
88.0%
(09:28) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #7 C.Pickett caught at KAN28, for 1 yard loss to the KAN33 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
87.8%
(08:46) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Kubecka thrown to KAN50Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
87.4%
(08:40) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete short left to #5 N.McMillan thrown to KAN50 broken up by #2 J.LoweSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
87.1%
(08:31) #99 M.Gill punt 32 yards to the MTSU35, out of bounds at MTSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4512% → 12%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.7%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU42 (#33 L.Harris III; #13 Q.Davis)Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
87.3%
PENALTY KAN Delay Of Game 5 yards from MTSU42 to MTSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
87.3%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MTSU46 (#44 D.Santiago)Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
87.5%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #1 M.Allen thrown to KAN46 broken up by #23 M.EllisSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
87.8%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #6 A.Jones thrown to KAN38 QB hurried by #44 D.SantiagoSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+35
88.3%
(06:42) #92 A.Logan punt 49 yards to the KAN05 #3 K.Kubecka return 35 yards to the KAN40 (#47 S.Lovvern; #34 A.Clemons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5889% → 94%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
88.5%
(06:24) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KAN41 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+30
88.4%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #1 D.Edwards caught at KAN45, for 30 yards to the MTSU29 (#13 A.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
88.8%
(05:37) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete deep right to #7 C.Pickett caught at MTSU08, for 22 yards to the MTSU07 (#11 J.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
88.7%
(05:04) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU05 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.7%
(04:27) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:388% → 8%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
91.6%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #85 N.Clifton caught at KAN40, for 5 yards to the KAN40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
91.5%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KAN38 (#92 N.Carter)Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-2
91.6%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KAN40 (#27 T.Davis)Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
92.2%
(02:27) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #83 K.Perdue thrown to KAN34 broken up by #33 L.Harris III, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 2:0494% → 97%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
93.8%
(02:21) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush left for 10 yards gain to the KAN50 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
93.5%
(01:59) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 9 yards gain to the MTSU41 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
93.5%
(01:52) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 2 yards gain to the MTSU39 (#26 K.Smith; #91 F.Hixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
93.5%
(01:34) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush right for 8 yards gain to the MTSU31 (#16 J.Thompson; #48 D.Malpress)Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+21
94.3%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush right for 21 yards gain to the MTSU10 (#16 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.3%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 3 yards loss to the MTSU13 (#21 J.Hardy) PENALTY KAN Holding (#9 J.Butler) 10 yards from MTSU10 to MTSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
94.8%
(00:36) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete deep left to #0 N.Cox thrown to MTSU00Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+3
93.9%
(00:29) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #7 C.Pickett caught at MTSU22, for 3 yards to the MTSU17 (#16 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
93.8%
(00:20) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete short left to #7 C.Pickett thrown to MTSU00Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
97.2%
(00:14) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte), clock 00:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.2%
(00:10) Kneel down by #16 R.Gagliano at MTSU24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:3097% → 99%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 3 yards gain to the MTSU45 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
97.0%
(14:23) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU40 (#13 A.Taylor; #2 J.Lowe), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+10
96.8%
(13:47) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall rush left for 10 yards gain to the MTSU30 (#17 J.Lowe; #2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.1%
(13:12) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete deep right to #5 N.McMillan thrown to MTSU05 broken up by #11 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
97.1%
(13:05) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #7 C.Pickett caught at MTSU32, for 18 yards to the MTSU12 (#98 E.Gyamfi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
(12:25) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:20, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
(12:19) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU37 QB hurried by #4 T.LathanSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
(12:15) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU28 broken up by #99 E.SmallsSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
(12:10) Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU25 (#33 L.Harris III)Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.4%
(11:28) #92 A.Logan punt 57 yards to the KAN18 #3 K.Kubecka return 13 yards to the KAN31 (#25 E.Sherman; #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.3%
(11:17) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #12 B.Hayes caught at KAN33, for 4 yards to the KAN35 (#30 B.Williams; #13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
(10:34) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 8 yards gain to the KAN43 (#17 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.4%
(09:58) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush left for 5 yards gain to the KAN48 (#17 J.Lowe)Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
99.4%
(09:26) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush left for 1 yard gain to the KAN49 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
99.5%
(08:48) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Dupree thrown to MTSU45Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
99.5%
(08:42) #99 M.Gill punt 51 yards to the MTSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:271% → 0%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.5%
(08:32) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU18, for 1 yard loss to the MTSU19 (#96 J.Conde)Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
99.5%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #9 T.Brown Jr. thrown to MTSU23Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
99.6%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #13 Z.Butler caught at MTSU20, for 8 yards to the MTSU27 (#44 D.Santiago)Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.6%
(07:09) #92 A.Logan punt 64 yards to the KAN09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.6%
(06:56) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KAN18 (#13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+23
99.6%
(06:14) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short right to #5 N.McMillan caught at KAN24, for 23 yards to the KAN41 (#0 K.Woods), 1ST DOWN. #17 J.Lowe injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.7%
(05:46) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 14 yards gain to the MTSU45 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
(05:07) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete short left to #7 C.Pickett caught at MTSU46, for 6 yards to the MTSU39 (#44 K.Call)Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
(04:27) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU34 (#42 L.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
(03:52) Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass complete deep left to #0 N.Cox caught at MTSU03, for 34 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:47, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
99.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 34 yards gain to the KAN41, out of bounds at KAN41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.8%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the KAN42 fumbled by #8 A.Martin Jr. at KAN42 forced by #33 L.Harris III recovered by KAN #33 L.Harris III at KAN42, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.8%
(02:56) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KAN47 (#90 J.Bodford)Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
99.8%
(02:18) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MTSU38 (#16 J.Thompson; #30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
(01:37) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins rush right for 4 yards gain to the MTSU34 (#0 K.Woods)Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
(00:55) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush right for 5 yards gain to the MTSU29 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
(00:12) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MTSU23 (#13 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.8%
(14:58) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU18 (#17 J.Lowe)Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
99.8%
(14:26) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush right for 4 yards gain to the MTSU14 (#17 J.Lowe)Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
(13:46) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU12 (#16 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
(13:05) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU05 (#2 J.Lowe; #11 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
(12:26) Shotgun #4 J.Dupree rush right for 5 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.9%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to #13 Z.Butler caught at KAN42, for 36 yards to the KAN39 (#17 L.Brown III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #13 Z.Butler thrown to KAN34 broken up by #6 J.HurleySimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #85 N.Clifton thrown to KAN22Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #7 H.Wasson thrown to KAN28Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
PENALTY MTSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from KAN39 to KAN44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
99.9%
(11:29) #92 A.Logan punt 35 yards to the KAN09 fair catch by #12 B.Hayes at KAN09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
(11:21) Shotgun #22 K.Cummings-Coleman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KAN14 (#13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
(10:44) Shotgun #22 K.Cummings-Coleman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KAN20 (#13 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
99.9%
(10:10) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins pass complete short left to #22 K.Cummings-Coleman caught at KAN29, for 19 yards to the KAN39, out of bounds at KAN39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
99.9%
(09:28) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #12 B.Hayes caught at MTSU40, for 47 yards to the MTSU14 (#51 S.Rochelle; #30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
(08:41) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins rush right for 14 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:35, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #13 Z.Butler thrown to MTSU30 QB hurried by #26 R.ReddickSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
100.0%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU22, for 6 yards to the MTSU23 (#12 J.Harris)Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
100.0%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU29Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
100.0%
(07:45) #92 A.Logan punt 48 yards to the KAN29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.9%
(07:32) Shotgun #22 K.Cummings-Coleman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the KAN42 (#17 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.9%
(06:55) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins pass complete short right to #12 B.Hayes caught at KAN39, for 1 yard loss to the KAN41 (#17 J.Lowe)Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+35
100.0%
(06:14) Shotgun #10 C.Jenkins rush middle for 35 yards gain to the MTSU24 (#25 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
100.0%
(05:29) Shotgun #22 K.Cummings-Coleman rush right for 24 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:22, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 B.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU27 (#18 J.Credit)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
(04:38) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU34 PENALTY MTSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#83 K.Perdue) 5 yards from MTSU27 to MTSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
100.0%
(04:31) Shotgun #33 B.Davis rush right for 2 yards gain to the MTSU24 (#45 G.Martin)Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
(03:50) Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Fleming thrown to MTSU39Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
(03:45) #92 A.Logan punt 76 yards to the KAN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24END OF HALF
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
100.0%
(03:30) Shotgun #86 D.Collier rush left for 38 yards gain to the MTSU42 (#25 E.Sherman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
(02:46) Shotgun #86 D.Collier rush right for 2 yards gain to the MTSU40 (#17 J.Lowe; #23 K.Minifield)Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
100.0%
(02:06) Shotgun #86 D.Collier rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU39 (#10 J.Chestnut)Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
100.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #86 D.Collier rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU39 (#16 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+9
100.0%
(01:18) Shotgun #86 D.Collier rush left for 9 yards gain to the MTSU30 (#16 J.Thompson; #29 A.Cross-Adams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
100.0%
(00:39) Kneel down by #16 J.Mason at MTSU32 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:23
(04:27) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)
+5
FG · Q2 0:11
(00:14) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte), clock 00:11
+3.5
TD · Q2 13:13
(13:17) Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush right for 6 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #49 H.Moeller, LS: #39 R.Monteforte)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com