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HOU

Houston 42 at Georgia Southern 28

GASO
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:42 · (06:47) #25 A.Smith punt 40 yards to the HOU33 fair catch by #4 T.Walker at HOU33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior−38.0Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:52: Traville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick) — HOU win probability +3.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:25: (11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #4 T.Walker caught at GASO00, for 23 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:25, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:34: (06:37) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU00, for 23 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn) — GASO win probability +5.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:10: (14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at GASO00, for 11 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:10 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards) — HOU win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:20: River Helms 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick) — GASO win probability +4.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 6:42GASO 4th & 28 at GASO 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 3:43GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  3. Q3 6:34GASO 4th & 4 at HOU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q4 8:20GASO 4th & 3 at HOU 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q4 6:37HOU 4th & 6 at GASO 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 4:43GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 3:01GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:30HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:52HOU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:25HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:34GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:10HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:20GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0110% → 11%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
10.0%
(14:55) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO18, for 10 yards to the GASO21 (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
10.1%
(14:32) Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO23 (#9 A.Porter; #18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
10.2%
(14:09) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO27, for 6 yards to the GASO29 (#8 K.Webb)Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+11
10.5%
(13:26) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #87 R.Helms caught at GASO35, for 11 yards to the GASO40 (#1 J.Yates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
10.9%
(12:49) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the GASO37 fumbled by #7 M.Johnson at GASO36 forced by #0 J.White recovered by HOU #90 D.Thomas at GASO37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0889% → 89%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
10.7%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO33 (#14 R.Myles Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+14
10.8%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #21 M.Hughes caught at GASO33, for 14 yards to the GASO19 (#22 C.Calicut), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
11.0%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at GASO15, for 11 yards to the GASO08 (#34 J.Whitehead; #22 C.Calicut), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
11.2%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO05 (#1 B.Tyson)Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.4%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Walker thrown to GASO00 broken up by #7 N.ManghamSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
10.8%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:30 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 2 yds · 3:2011% → 12%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.2%
(10:30) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO20, for 6 yards to the GASO31 lateral to #35 T.Todd for 11 yards gain to the GASO31 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
11.4%
(09:56) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #87 R.Helms caught at GASO35, for 4 yards to the GASO35 (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.5%
(09:13) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GASO49 broken up by #6 J.AllenSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
11.4%
(09:08) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #35 T.Todd caught at GASO40, for 10 yards to the GASO45 (#2 J.Mayo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
11.9%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush right for 5 yards gain to the GASO50 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
50
+2
12.1%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #18 J.Ware caught at HOU46, for 2 yards to the HOU48 (#2 J.Mayo)Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
12.2%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. caught at HOU40, for 10 yards to the HOU38 (#2 J.Mayo), out of bounds PENALTY GASO Illegal Formation 5 yards from HOU48 to GASO47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
12.1%
PENALTY GASO False Start (#50 J.Slaughter) 5 yards from GASO47 to GASO42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-8
12.0%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Mbadinga thrown to GASO40 QB hurried by #0 J.White and #1 J.Yates PENALTY GASO Intentional Grounding (#7 M.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 28
OWN 27
0
11.8%
(06:47) #25 A.Smith punt 40 yards to the HOU33 fair catch by #4 T.Walker at HOU33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 4:0488% → 90%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
11.8%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 11 yards gain to the HOU44 (#2 A.Sears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
11.7%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at GASO45, for 11 yards to the GASO45, out of bounds at GASO45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
11.8%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO43 (#94 E.Fears)Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
11.9%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at GASO41, for 7 yards to the GASO36 (#12 T.Hill Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
12.0%
(04:30) No Huddle #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO34 (#18 M.Stroud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
10.5%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
10.5%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 10 yards gain to the GASO22 (#22 C.Calicut; #4 A.Bynum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
10.5%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep left to #2 K.Young caught at GASO00, for 22 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5311% → 15%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.9%
(02:29) Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO29 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
11.0%
(01:46) Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO33 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
11.2%
(01:04) Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 8 yards gain to the GASO41 (#1 J.Yates; #9 A.Porter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
11.5%
(00:26) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #15 T.Bradshaw caught at GASO47, for 12 yards to the HOU47 (#5 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
11.8%
(14:53) Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU44 (#90 D.Thomas; #0 J.White)Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
11.8%
(14:05) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #19 J.Dallas caught at HOU40, for 4 yards to the HOU40, out of bounds at HOU40Similar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
15.1%
(13:34) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep left to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU00, for 40 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:32, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:5515% → 16%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
14.9%
(13:23) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #0 D.Mbadinga caught at GASO46, for 0 yards to the GASO46 (#2 J.Mayo) PENALTY GASO Holding (#4 A.Greene Jr.) 10 yards from GASO46 to GASO36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
14.3%
(13:09) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #5 A.Taylor thrown to HOU45Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+7
14.3%
(13:02) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #5 A.Taylor caught at GASO43, for 7 yards to the GASO43, out of bounds at GASO43Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+13
14.3%
(12:25) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO45, for 13 yards to the HOU44 (#12 S.Fotu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
14.9%
(11:45) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush left for 8 yards gain to the HOU36, out of bounds at HOU36Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+10
15.0%
(11:23) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #20 T.Cummings thrown to HOU20 PENALTY GASO Holding (#50 J.Slaughter) 10 yards from HOU36 to HOU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+15
14.6%
(11:17) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU31, for 15 yards to the HOU31, out of bounds at HOU31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
15.7%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU27 (#90 D.Thomas)Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+25
15.9%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #35 T.Todd caught at HOU15, for 25 yards to the HOU02 (#5 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.9%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 T.Cummings rush for 2 yards gain to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:28 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3486% → 87%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.1%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 7 yards gain to the HOU32 (#4 A.Bynum; #5 D.Aviles)Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
13.7%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU35 (#2 A.Sears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.9%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Thomas thrown to GASO48Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
14.1%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 8 yards gain to the HOU43 (#14 R.Myles Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
13.2%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU46, for 6 yards to the HOU49 (#7 N.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+47
13.0%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at GASO49, for 47 yards to the GASO04 (#1 B.Tyson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GASO Personal Foul (#55 K.Jordan) 2 yards from GASO04 to GASO02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.7%
(07:04) #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GASO01 (#94 E.Fears; #4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.7%
(06:29) #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 0 yards to the GASO01 (#6 J.Jones; #98 U.Iloh)Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.0%
C. Weigman run for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Dimas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:0514% → 14%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.1%
PENALTY GASO Personal Foul (#52 K.Casey) 12 yards from GASO25 to GASO13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
14.1%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the GASO18 (#47 D.Mays)Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
14.1%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush left for 5 yards gain to the GASO23, out of bounds at GASO23, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY HOU Holding 10 yards from GASO23 to GASO33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
14.6%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 2 yards loss to the GASO31 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
14.6%
(04:00) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Mbadinga thrown to GASO30 broken up by #18 K.LaufauSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
14.1%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #13 K.Phillips thrown to GASO50 QB hurried by #18 K.LaufauSimilar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 10
OWN 31
-2
14.0%
(03:50) #25 A.Smith punt 42 yards to the HOU27 muffed by #4 T.Walker at HOU27 recovered by HOU #4 T.Walker at HOU25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4386% → 91%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.4%
(03:41) #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 8 yards gain to the HOU33 (#6 J.Jones)Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
13.9%
(03:12) #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #4 T.Walker caught at HOU39, for 15 yards to the HOU48 (#6 J.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
13.3%
(02:49) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at GASO39, for 13 yards to the GASO39, out of bounds at GASO39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
13.0%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 10 yards gain to the GASO29 (#12 T.Hill Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
12.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 17 yards gain to the GASO12 (#6 J.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
12.6%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the GASO05 (#9 F.Davies; #6 J.Jones)Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
12.6%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO02 (#57 L.Bullard; #90 O.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.5%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 0 yards to the GASO02 (#2 A.Sears; #90 O.Brown)Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.0%
Traville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:209% → 10%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.6%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO29 (#10 L.McCutchin)Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-11
10.0%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the GASO18 (#9 A.Porter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:2689% → 96%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.9%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #85 T.Frederick Jr. thrown to HOU35Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
11.0%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU32 (#4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
11.1%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #4 T.Walker caught at HOU36, for 10 yards to the HOU42 (#22 C.Calicut; #18 M.Stroud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
10.1%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at GASO41, for 17 yards to the GASO41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
9.8%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 15 yards gain to the GASO26 (#10 J.Hammonds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
9.7%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO23 (#10 J.Hammonds; #94 E.Fears)Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
9.6%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to GASO06 broken up by #7 N.ManghamSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
4.0%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #4 T.Walker caught at GASO00, for 23 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:25, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:367% → 11%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
6.9%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the GASO29 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
6.8%
(10:44) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. caught at GASO25, for 4 yards to the GASO33 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
6.2%
(10:00) #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO35 (#25 C.Glass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
6.0%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO34, for 9 yards to the GASO44 (#8 K.Webb) PENALTY HOU Personal Foul (#8 K.Webb) 15 yards from GASO44 to HOU41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
5.7%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #18 J.Ware caught at HOU29, for 12 yards to the HOU29 (#5 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
6.2%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU24 (#8 K.Webb)Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
5.9%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Dallas thrown to HOU20 broken up by #8 K.WebbSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+1
5.6%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HOU23 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+23
11.3%
(06:37) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU00, for 23 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
17 plays · 86 yds · 7:1491% → 98%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
8.9%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU17 (#1 B.Tyson; #4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+11
8.9%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #4 T.Walker caught at HOU29, for 11 yards to the HOU28 (#31 C.Gamble), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
8.6%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU32 (#4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
8.5%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer caught at HOU35, for 14 yards to the HOU46 (#6 J.Jones; #22 C.Calicut), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
7.8%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the GASO47 (#6 J.Jones; #22 C.Calicut)Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
7.5%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO43 (#21 C.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
7.4%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush for 3 yards gain to the GASO40 (#99 J.Ticket)Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
7.5%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO37 (#9 F.Davies)Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
7.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at GASO32, for 5 yards to the GASO32 (#6 J.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
7.1%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO28 (#31 C.Gamble; #6 J.Jones)Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+8
6.9%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 8 yards gain to the GASO20 (#43 E.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
6.7%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO18 (#94 E.Fears)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+12
6.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 12 yards gain to the GASO06 (#17 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
5.8%
PENALTY HOU False Start (#52 A.Boswell) 5 yards from GASO06 to GASO11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
1.6%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at GASO00, for 11 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:10 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:382% → 6%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.2%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at GASO32, for 8 yards to the GASO33 (#4 B.Mack)Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
2.3%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 1 yard loss to the GASO32 (#0 J.White)Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+25
2.0%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU43, for 25 yards to the HOU43 (#3 J.Rhym), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
2.2%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep left to #19 J.Dallas caught at HOU17, for 42 yards to the HOU01 (#2 J.Mayo; #6 J.Allen) PENALTY GASO Pass Interference (#19 J.Dallas) 10 yards from HOU43 to GASO47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
2.0%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to HOU30 broken up by #2 J.MayoSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+9
1.9%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU44, for 9 yards to the HOU44 (#5 W.James)Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+13
2.0%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #18 J.Ware caught at HOU38, for 13 yards to the HOU31 (#0 J.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
2.2%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Bradshaw rush left for 4 yards gain to the HOU27 (#2 J.Mayo)Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
2.2%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete deep right to #2 A.Hollins thrown to HOU05 broken up by #5 W.JamesSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+15
2.1%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #18 J.Ware thrown to HOU14 PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (#8 K.Webb) 15 yards from HOU27 to HOU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.2%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #87 R.Helms thrown to HOU00Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
2.2%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU10 (#6 J.Allen)Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
2.0%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan pass complete short left to #13 K.Phillips caught at HOU05, for 5 yards to the HOU05 (#5 W.James)Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+5
6.1%
River Helms 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2796% → 97%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
4.4%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO49 (#4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
4.3%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Hughes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GASO48 (#90 O.Brown)Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
3.2%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to GASO40Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
3.3%
(06:41) #91 L.Dougherty punt 48 yards to the GASO00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:314% → 3%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.3%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GASO35 broken up by #5 W.JamesSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+19
4.0%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 19 yards gain to the GASO39 (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
4.3%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GASO42 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
4.3%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush left for 3 yards gain to the GASO45 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
4.3%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GASO50 broken up by #0 J.WhiteSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+5
3.8%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #87 R.Helms caught at GASO50, for 5 yards to the GASO50 (#6 J.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
50
0
3.0%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at HOU34, for 0 yards to the GASO50 PENALTY GASO Holding (#50 J.Slaughter) 10 yards from GASO50 to GASO40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+6
2.9%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. caught at GASO46, for 6 yards to the GASO46 (#5 W.James), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
2.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to HOU35 QB hurried by #9 A.PorterSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
2.8%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #87 R.Helms caught at GASO46, for 0 yards to the GASO46 (#1 J.Yates)Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
2.5%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #16 J.Samuel thrown to GASO46 QB hurried by #4 B.Mack, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1698% → 99%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
1.9%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 11 yards gain to the GASO35 (#2 A.Sears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
1.8%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GASO31 (#1 B.Tyson; #4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
1.4%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GASO30 (#90 O.Brown)Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
1.4%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sanford II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the GASO23 (#10 J.Hammonds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
1.4%
(01:17) Kneel down by #25 Houston at GASO24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-1
1.4%
(00:36) Kneel down by #25 Houston at GASO25 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:34
(06:37) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep right to #5 A.Taylor caught at HOU00, for 23 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)
+5.7
TD · Q3 11:25
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #4 T.Walker caught at GASO00, for 23 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:25, 1ST DOWN #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)
-5.6
TD · Q4 8:20
River Helms 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com