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BYU

BYU 41 at Colorado State 23

CSU
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:43 · (00:50) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #30 D.Toy caught at CSU42, for 7 yards to the CSU48 (#7 K.Pula), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−50.1Pregame prior−14.3Score differential−33.2Garbage-time factor−16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:51: (00:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:51 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +2.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:11: (06:14) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 06:11 — CSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:11: Timeout BYU, clock 06:11 — CSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:18: (01:22) #1 L.Glasker rush right for 5 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith) — BYU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:16: (12:17) #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:16 #6 J.Harper pass attempt Successful — CSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:00CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:11BYU 4th & 6 at CSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:56CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:24CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:47CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:43CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 41, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:42BYU 4th & 5 at CSU 8, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:11BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:22CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:42BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:51BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18BYU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:29BYU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:16CSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58CSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4490% → 90%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
10.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU44 (#2 O.Diomande; #6 E.Brown)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+56
10.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 56 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:11, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3710% → 12%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
10.3%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short middle to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU32, for 10 yards to the CSU35 (#1 T.Alexander; #16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
10.5%
(13:35) Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short right to #22 C.Ross caught at CSU33, for 50 yards to the BYU15 (#1 T.Alexander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
10.7%
PENALTY CSU False Start (#54 Q.Harris) 5 yards from BYU15 to BYU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
10.8%
(12:35) Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short right to #5 J.Vereen caught at BYU22, for 0 yards to the BYU20 (#90 H.Clegg) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#90 H.Clegg) 10 yards from BYU20 to BYU10, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
10.9%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny rush right for 8 yards gain (4) to the BYU02 (#22 T.Prassas) PENALTY CSU Holding (#11 D.Robinson) 10 yards from BYU06 to BYU16Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+9
11.0%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short middle to #1 M.Brown caught at BYU19, for 9 yards to the BYU07 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.2%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Brown thrown to BYU02 QB hurried by #48 B.SchoonoverSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
11.8%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short middle to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at BYU00, for 7 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:22, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #39 N.Sutcliffe, LS: #56 W.Himebauch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:3088% → 89%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
11.6%
(11:18) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush left for 9 yards gain to the BYU28 (#13 E.Mc-Cantos)Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+70
11.7%
(10:43) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #1 L.Glasker caught at CSU20, for 70 yards to the CSU02 (#6 E.Brown; #15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.2%
(09:45) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:42 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3312% → 13%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.6%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass complete short left to #1 M.Brown caught at CSU23, for 4 yards to the CSU29 (#16 I.Glasker; #4 C.Uluave)Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
11.9%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush middle for 12 yards gain to the CSU41 (#11 F.Satuala; #16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
12.2%
(08:33) PENALTY BYU Offside (#5 N.Taumoepeau) 5 yards from CSU41 to CSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 5
OWN 46
-1
12.2%
(08:13) Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush left for 1 yard loss to the CSU45 (#1 T.Alexander; #13 T.Akana)Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
12.4%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU48 (#96 J.Kirkland)Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
12.6%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Harper thrown to BYU48 broken up by #0 E.JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
12.5%
(07:07) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 38 yards to the BYU14 #32 C.DeVries return 0 yards to the BYU14 (#23 J.Mitchell; #26 T.Cook Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2088% → 87%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
12.3%
(07:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU18 (#23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
12.3%
(06:20) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 0 yards to the BYU18 (#23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
12.6%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#75 A.Gentry) 5 yards from BYU18 to BYU13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+2
12.8%
(05:21) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU15 (#55 D.Manuel)Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
13.2%
(04:41) #19 F.Shurtz punt 53 yards to the CSU32 fair catch by #6 J.Harper at CSU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3413% → 13%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
12.7%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Harper thrown to BYU50 QB hurried by #90 H.CleggSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
12.7%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU35 (#21 M.Hall)Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
12.7%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 H.Hejny pass incomplete short right to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to CSU35Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
12.6%
(04:10) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 38 yards to the BYU27 #32 C.DeVries return 0 yards to the BYU27, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 3:0287% → 90%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
12.9%
(03:56) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Kasper thrown to BYU40 broken up by #13 E.Mc-CantosSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
13.1%
(03:52) #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU28 (#15 T.Moore)Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+28
13.4%
(03:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #1 L.Glasker caught at BYU28, for 28 yards to the CSU44 (#15 T.Moore; #17 C.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
12.7%
(02:27) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #7 W.Lyons caught at CSU30, for 26 yards to the CSU18 (#0 C.Presley; #13 E.Mc-Cantos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
12.6%
(01:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 10 yards gain to the CSU08 (#92 M.Wa-Kalonji; #0 C.Presley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
10.0%
(00:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:51 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:2112% → 13%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush right for 0 yards to the CSU25 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.1%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Ross rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU28 (#4 C.Uluave; #32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
12.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar rush right for 9 yards gain to the CSU37 (#4 C.Uluave), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
12.6%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #6 J.Harper caught at CSU34, for 2 yards loss to the CSU35 (#32 C.DeVries), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
12.3%
(13:58) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #15 T.Smith caught at CSU32, for 0 yards to the CSU35 (#4 C.Uluave)Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+9
12.3%
(13:12) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #11 D.Robinson caught at CSU38, for 9 yards to the CSU44 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
13.1%
(12:31) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 53 yards to the BYU03, out of bounds at BYU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 6:0589% → 86%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+17
11.2%
(12:24) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 17 yards gain to the BYU20 (#15 T.Moore; #13 E.Mc-Cantos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
13.0%
(11:44) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #7 W.Lyons caught at BYU22, for 14 yards to the BYU34 (#6 E.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
13.0%
(11:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #3 K.Kasper caught at CSU48, for 23 yards to the CSU43 (#13 E.Mc-Cantos), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
12.6%
(10:36) Shotgun #1 L.Glasker rush right for 7 yards gain to the CSU36 (#17 C.Blocker)Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
12.4%
(09:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU34 (#23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
12.6%
(09:19) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU30 (#92 M.Wa-Kalonji), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
12.3%
(08:39) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #45 K.Nead caught at CSU30, for 6 yards to the CSU24 QB hurried by #92 M.Wa-Kalonji (#28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
11.8%
(08:00) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU21 (#92 M.Wa-Kalonji; #2 O.Diomande)Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
12.0%
(07:20) PENALTY BYU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CSU21 to CSU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
12.0%
(06:54) #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU26 (#4 D.Phelps; #11 K.Potts)Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
13.9%
(06:14) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 06:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0912% → 12%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.1%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush left for 6 yards gain to the CSU31 (#22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
10.9%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the CSU32 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
10.5%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU36 (#96 J.Kirkland; #90 H.Clegg), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
12.5%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU39 (#11 F.Satuala; #18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
12.9%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU43 (#21 M.Hall; #48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-1
11.7%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush right for 1 yard loss to the CSU42 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+10
12.0%
(03:04) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 46 yards to the BYU12 #32 C.DeVries return 10 yards to the BYU22 (#23 J.Mitchell; #5 D.Hagans)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:3286% → 96%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
14.0%
(02:56) #4 L.Martin rush left for 9 yards gain to the BYU31 (#13 E.Mc-Cantos)Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+49
13.3%
(02:14) #4 L.Martin rush right for 49 yards gain to the CSU20 (#13 E.Mc-Cantos), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.9%
(02:00) #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Kasper thrown to CSU00Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
7.0%
(01:56) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #1 L.Glasker caught at CSU23, for 15 yards to the CSU05 (#4 D.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.3%
(01:22) #1 L.Glasker rush right for 5 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12INT
12 plays · 48 yds · 1:078% → 10%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.8%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU30, for 11 yards to the CSU36 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.1%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Harper thrown to CSU42Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
7.9%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #5 J.Vereen caught at CSU42, for 8 yards to the CSU44 (#16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
7.1%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU47 (#4 C.Uluave), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
9.6%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #15 T.Smith thrown to BYU48Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
10.1%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete deep left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to BYU20 QB hurried by #15 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+26
9.6%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete deep left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at BYU30, for 26 yards to the BYU27 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
10.2%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Harper thrown to BYU20 QB hurried by #16 I.GlaskerSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-20
10.3%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass intercepted by #90 H.Clegg at BYU18 #90 H.Clegg return 20 yards to the BYU38 (#2 K.Farrar)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
4.0%
(00:05) Kneel down by #47 B.Bachmeier at BYU36 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #6 J.Harper caught at CSU22, for 5 yards to the CSU30 (#22 T.Prassas; #13 T.Akana), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
6.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #6 J.Harper caught at CSU26, for 2 yards loss to the CSU28 (#32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
6.2%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Harper thrown to CSU24Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+17
6.1%
(13:36) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 42 yards to the BYU30 #32 C.DeVries return 17 yards to the BYU47 (#88 N.Chirchi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:4896% → 99%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
4.0%
(13:24) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU46, for 9 yards to the CSU44 (#28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
3.5%
(12:46) #4 L.Martin rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU41 (#99 T.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
3.5%
(12:05) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at CSU36, for 12 yards to the CSU29 (#6 E.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
3.2%
(11:24) #12 P.Rex rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU21 (#15 T.Moore; #28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
3.1%
(10:43) #12 P.Rex rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU13 (#10 B.Kelley; #28 M.Pretto), 1ST DOWN. #28 M.Pretto injured on the playSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
3.1%
(10:19) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #1 L.Glasker caught at CSU06, for 8 yards to the CSU05 (#5 D.Hagans), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
2.1%
(09:37) #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Phillips thrown to CSU02 QB hurried by #90 K.ShankSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
1.1%
(09:33) #12 P.Rex rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29, 1ST DOWN #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:361% → 1%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.2%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 1 yard gain to the CSU26 (#16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
1.1%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete deep left to #15 T.Smith thrown to BYU50Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
1.1%
(09:00) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Harper thrown to CSU35 broken up by #21 M.HallSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
1.1%
(08:53) #39 N.Sutcliffe punt 39 yards to the BYU35 fair catch by #32 C.DeVries at BYU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 5:4698% → 99%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
1.6%
(08:47) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush left for 14 yards gain to the BYU49 (#8 A.Turner; #15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
1.6%
(08:09) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CSU42 (#11 K.Potts)Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+16
1.4%
(07:27) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush right for 16 yards gain to the CSU26 (#15 T.Moore; #4 D.Phelps), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
1.3%
(06:48) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush right for 7 yards gain to the CSU19 (#96 T.Fitten)Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-3
1.2%
(06:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 3 yards loss to the CSU22 (#56 K.Agurs)Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+10
1.1%
(05:19) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #1 L.Glasker caught at CSU17, for 10 yards to the CSU12 (#5 D.Hagans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
1.0%
(04:32) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU09 (#15 T.Moore)Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+10
0.7%
(03:53) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 9 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:50 PENALTY BYU Holding (#75 A.Gentry) 10 yards from CSU09 to CSU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 17
OPP 19
+6
0.8%
(03:50) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at CSU19, for 6 yards to the CSU13 (#15 T.Moore)Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 11
OPP 13
-26
0.7%
(03:05) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass intercepted by #17 C.Blocker at CSU00 #17 C.Blocker return 26 yards to the CSU26 (#3 K.Kasper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.4%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #1 M.Brown caught at CSU21, for 4 yards to the CSU30 (#7 K.Pula; #94 A.Purcell)Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-3
0.3%
(02:15) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #22 C.Ross caught at CSU27, for 3 yards loss to the CSU27 (#27 M.Leach; #22 T.Prassas)Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+15
0.3%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to CSU35 PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#30 B.Lindsey) 15 yards from CSU27 to CSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.3%
(01:27) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #30 D.Toy thrown to CSU50 broken up by #7 K.Pula QB hurried by #18 A.KaufusiSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
0.3%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Vereen thrown to CSU45 broken up by #22 T.PrassasSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-1
0.3%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU39, for 1 yard loss to the CSU41 (#32 C.DeVries)Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+7
0.3%
(00:50) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #30 D.Toy caught at CSU42, for 7 yards to the CSU48 (#7 K.Pula), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
0.8%
(00:43) Shotgun #10 T.Bourguet pass intercepted by #5 D.Hagans at CSU40 broken up by #4 D.Phelps #5 D.Hagans return 15 yards to the BYU45 (#18 R.Frischknecht)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:120% → 2%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
0.3%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #11 D.Robinson caught at BYU48, for 8 yards to the BYU37 (#26 J.Criss), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+19
0.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 19 yards gain to the BYU18 (#31 J.Clifton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
0.2%
(14:21) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar rush left for 8 yards gain to the BYU10 (#5 N.Taumoepeau), out of bounds PENALTY CSU Holding (#54 Q.Harris) 10 yards from BYU18 to BYU28. NO PLAY. #2 K.Farrar injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+14
0.2%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass incomplete short middle to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to BYU26 broken up by #21 M.Hall PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#13 T.Akana) 14 yards from BYU28 to BYU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
0.2%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short middle to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at BYU08, for 13 yards to the BYU01 (#22 T.Prassas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.2%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry rush left for 2 yards loss to the BYU03 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.2%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU01 (#7 K.Pula; #15 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
(12:17) #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:16 #6 J.Harper pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:2993% → 99%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.5%
(12:16) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU30 (#8 A.Turner)Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
8.1%
(11:43) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BYU36 (#99 T.Robinson; #77 J.Moran), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
7.5%
(10:59) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU37 (#27 J.King; #55 D.Manuel)Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+38
3.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 38 yards gain to the CSU25 (#10 B.Kelley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
2.6%
(09:35) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 12 yards gain to the CSU13 (#5 D.Hagans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
2.3%
(08:50) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU10 (#8 A.Turner)Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
2.2%
(08:10) Shotgun #25 D.Eka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU08 (#92 M.Wa-Kalonji)Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
2.1%
(07:30) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush right for 0 yards to the CSU08 (#8 A.Turner)Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
0.6%
(06:44) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 06:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:410% → 1%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass incomplete short left to #12 J.Moore thrown to CSU30Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.1%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short left to #22 C.Ross caught at CSU29, for 8 yards to the CSU33 (#15 J.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+30
0.1%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short right to #22 C.Ross caught at CSU35, for 30 yards to the BYU37 (#27 M.Leach), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.1%
(05:20) Shotgun #3 D.Curry rush right for 6 yards gain to the BYU31 (#33 M.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+9
0.1%
(04:46) Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short middle to #4 L.Brown caught at BYU25, for 9 yards to the BYU22 (#31 J.Clifton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.1%
(04:02) Shotgun #3 D.Curry rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU22 (#33 M.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
0.1%
(03:35) Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass incomplete deep left to #10 T.Maher thrown to BYU02 broken up by #28 C.ClarkSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+10
0.1%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass incomplete short right to #10 T.Maher thrown to BYU10 PENALTY BYU Holding (#31 J.Clifton) 10 yards from BYU22 to BYU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
0.1%
(03:30) Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short left to #12 J.Moore caught at BYU06, for 9 yards to the BYU03 (#15 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
0.1%
(02:48) #44 O.Lundberg Coleman rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU01 (#21 M.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 O.Lundberg Coleman rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU01 (#7 K.Pula; #17 J.Kalama)Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short middle to #88 N.Chirchi caught at BYU00, for 1 yard to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:58 #10 T.Maher pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
1.8%
(01:57) Shotgun #20 J.Tonga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU44 (#12 J.Bellah)Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-2
1.8%
(01:13) Kneel down by #10 T.Bourguet at CSU46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-1
1.8%
(00:36) Kneel down by #10 T.Bourguet at CSU47 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:51
(00:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:51 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
-2.7
TD · Q2 1:18
(01:22) #1 L.Glasker rush right for 5 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18 #97 M.Dunn kick attempt good (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith)
-2.6
FG · Q2 6:11
(06:14) #97 M.Dunn field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #19 F.Shurtz, LS: #88 T.Smith), clock 06:11
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com