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NIU

Northern Illinois 17 at Arizona 42

ARIZ
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:31 · (00:38) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete deep right to #0 L.Bryant caught at ARIZ01, for 20 yards to the ARIZ01, out of bounds at ARIZ01, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense−46.5Score differential−21.6Garbage-time factor−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:07: Cam Thompson 52 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (JJ Schlenhardt Kick) — NIU win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:13: Isaiah Mizell 14 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — NIU win probability +0.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:54: Tre Spivey 10 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — NIU win probability +0.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:01: Tyler Powell 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — NIU win probability +1.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:54: Noah Fifita 30 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — NIU win probability +1.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 11:24NIU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16ARIZ 4th & 15 at ARIZ 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:08NIU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 24, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:02NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 48, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:13NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:59NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 46, up 16
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:01ARIZ 4th & 3 at NIU 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−12.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:31NIU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 40, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−3.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:42NIU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 10, up 16
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−13.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:42NIU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 36, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:00NIU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:31NIU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 21, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:07NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:212% → 3%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
(14:57) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU30, for 5 yards to the NIU30 (#17 L.Molette III), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
98.0%
(14:31) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NIU39 (#48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
97.9%
(14:01) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #85 J.Stein caught at NIU39, for 8 yards to the NIU47 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+20
97.8%
(13:27) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 20 yards gain to the ARIZ33 (#8 J.Cole; #17 L.Molette III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.7%
(12:53) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep middle to #0 L.Bryant thrown to ARIZ00Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
97.7%
(12:50) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ARIZ23 (#48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.6%
(12:14) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to ARIZ20 broken up by #42 D.LolesioSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
97.6%
(12:10) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #7 C.Thompson thrown to ARIZ00Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+2
97.6%
(12:05) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #45 T.Johnson Jr. caught at ARIZ27, for 2 yards to the ARIZ21 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
97.5%
(11:24) #33 J.Schlenhardt field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans), clock 11:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5298% → 97%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
97.5%
(11:23) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ARIZ14 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+8
97.4%
(10:44) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARIZ22, for 8 yards to the ARIZ22 (#5 Y.Falke)Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-2
97.3%
(10:03) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ20 (#90 K.Sneed)Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
97.1%
(09:23) #37 C.Ridley punt 32 yards to the NIU48, out of bounds at NIU48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
96.9%
Cam Thompson 52 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:5397% → 96%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
96.6%
(08:59) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 1 yard loss to the ARIZ13 (#6 J.Nelson; #18 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+3
96.4%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ10, for 3 yards to the ARIZ16 (#16 K.Conyers)Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+43
96.2%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ49, for 43 yards to the NIU41 (#2 A.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
96.2%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at NIU33, for 8 yards to the NIU33, out of bounds at NIU33Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
96.1%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU32 (#44 J.Murray; #11 A.Washington)Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
95.9%
(06:28) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush left for 19 yards gain (4) to the NIU13 (#3 L.Lindo) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#73 M.Lado) 10 yards from NIU28 to NIU38Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+38
95.7%
Chris Hunter III 38 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:335% → 8%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
(05:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #7 C.Thompson caught at NIU25, for 5 yards to the NIU30 (#13 C.Chapa)Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.0%
(05:29) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. thrown to NIU35 broken up by #6 T.BrownSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.0%
(05:24) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU33, for 6 yards to the NIU36 (#8 J.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
(04:52) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short right to #19 J.Bradley thrown to ARIZ49Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.6%
(04:45) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NIU43 (#13 C.Chapa)Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
94.2%
(04:04) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU47, for 6 yards to the NIU49 (#5 M.Harris; #2 D.Austin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
(03:32) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.Rogers thrown to ARIZ10Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
(03:26) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short left to #4 K.Lewis thrown to ARIZ44Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+21
93.7%
(03:23) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at ARIZ48, for 21 yards to the ARIZ30 (#48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
93.1%
(02:35) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ27 (#5 M.Harris; #51 K.Lafitaga)Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
92.7%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at ARIZ24, for 3 yards to the ARIZ24, out of bounds at ARIZ24Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
92.3%
(01:19) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short left to #19 K.McInerney thrown to ARIZ05Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
92.5%
(01:11) #33 J.Schlenhardt field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans), clock 01:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 4:4793% → 90%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
92.9%
(01:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ16 (#55 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+12
92.5%
(00:33) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARIZ22, for 12 yards to the ARIZ28 (#12 A.Warren), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+10
92.1%
(14:57) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #14 C.Rusk caught at ARIZ35, for 10 yards to the ARIZ38 (#16 K.Conyers; #12 A.Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
92.1%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ42, for 4 yards to the ARIZ42 (#3 L.Lindo)Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
92.1%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain (0) to the ARIZ43 (#12 A.Warren; #50 M.Scarlett) PENALTY NIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ARIZ42 to ARIZ47Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.7%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #18 B.Phelps thrown to NIU33Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
91.5%
(13:45) #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU48 (#14 M.Armstrong; #55 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+14
91.2%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush left for 14 yards gain to the NIU34 (#3 L.Lindo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.0%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #18 B.Phelps thrown to NIU00Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
91.2%
(12:40) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NIU20 (#20 M.Washington, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
90.8%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at NIU13, for 7 yards to the NIU13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-1
90.6%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at NIU17, for 1 yard loss to the NIU14 (#20 M.Washington, Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
90.0%
Isaiah Mizell 14 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:0013% → 18%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
(11:10) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU24, for 2 yards to the NIU27 (#42 D.Lolesio)Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.7%
(10:35) Shotgun #20 J.Cranford rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU27 (#6 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
86.1%
(09:51) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU38, for 13 yards to the NIU40 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #10 M.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.2%
(09:02) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU44 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
83.3%
(08:25) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NIU43 (#13 C.Chapa; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
82.7%
(07:38) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #7 C.Thompson caught at NIU42, for 5 yards to the NIU48 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #5 M.Harris). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:38) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #7 C.Thompson caught at NIU41, for 57 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:24, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
82.2%
(07:02) #36 J.Ference punt 32 yards to the ARIZ20 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0285% → 83%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
85.4%
(07:02) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ21 (#92 J.McGhee; #25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+21
84.5%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at ARIZ29, for 21 yards to the ARIZ42 (#14 M.Armstrong; #16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
85.0%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ45 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+24
84.3%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep right to #18 B.Phelps caught at NIU32, for 24 yards to the NIU31 (#2 A.Jones; #5 Y.Falke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
84.4%
(04:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #18 B.Phelps caught at NIU22, for 14 yards to the NIU17 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
84.0%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #18 B.Phelps caught at NIU21, for 7 yards to the NIU10 (#44 J.Murray; #16 K.Conyers)Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
83.3%
Tre Spivey 10 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3225% → 27%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.5%
(03:54) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU29, for 4 yards to the NIU29 (#9 T.Boss)Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
74.4%
(03:16) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NIU27 (#38 K.Moorer Jr.; #41 J.Savaiinaea)Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
73.1%
(02:37) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #0 L.Bryant caught at NIU33, for 6 yards to the NIU33 (#6 T.Brown; #11 J.Mann)Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
73.0%
PENALTY NIU False Start (#25 B.Kerperin) 5 yards from NIU33 to NIU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+69
72.9%
Caleb Smith 69 Yd Punt Return (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:0628% → 36%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.8%
(02:11) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short middle to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU37, for 14 yards to the NIU39 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
65.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #19 K.McInerney caught at NIU44, for 5 yards to the NIU44 (#9 T.Boss)Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
64.2%
(01:31) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU46 (#95 L.Palu; #44 P.Williams)Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
62.9%
(01:03) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short middle to #7 C.Thompson thrown to ARIZ45 QB hurried by #38 K.Moorer Jr.Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
64.4%
(00:59) #36 J.Ference punt 36 yards to the ARIZ18 muffed by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ18 recovered by ARIZ #20 C.Smith at ARIZ18, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:2675% → 73%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
74.7%
(00:50) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ10 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 18
OWN 10
-1
72.7%
(00:18) Kneel down by #1 N.Fifita at ARIZ09 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5372% → 60%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.8%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARIZ30, for 7 yards to the ARIZ32 (#3 L.Lindo)Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
72.0%
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at ARIZ29, for 3 yards to the ARIZ35 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
70.4%
(14:03) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARIZ47, for 14 yards to the ARIZ49 (#3 L.Lindo), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
71.1%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ50 (#18 J.Thomas; #11 A.Washington)Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
50
+8
69.9%
(13:12) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU42 (#6 J.Nelson; #25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+14
69.6%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NIU28 (#14 M.Armstrong; #3 L.Lindo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
68.5%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at NIU20, for 9 yards to the NIU19 (#6 J.Nelson; #20 M.Washington, Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
68.0%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #24 Q.Craig caught at NIU17, for 5 yards to the NIU14 (#6 J.Nelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
65.7%
(11:18) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #14 C.Rusk caught at NIU10, for 11 yards to the NIU03 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
65.1%
(10:47) #3 K.Reescano rush left for 7 yards loss to the NIU10 (#18 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
63.2%
(10:07) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #14 C.Rusk caught at NIU06, for 4 yards to the NIU06 (#6 J.Nelson). #14 C.Rusk injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
61.6%
(09:46) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #3 K.Reescano caught at NIU04, for 3 yards to the NIU03 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.8%
Tyler Powell 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13DOWNS
18 plays · 55 yds · 8:1048% → 79%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.0%
(09:00) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at NIU29, for 13 yards to the NIU38 (#17 L.Molette III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
49.1%
(08:26) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NIU36 (#3 T.Smith)Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+5
48.2%
(07:47) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at NIU40, for 5 yards to the NIU41 (#8 J.Cole)Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
45.0%
(06:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short middle to #1 D.Rogers caught at ARIZ49, for 13 yards to the ARIZ46 (#15 M.Hartzog), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.5%
(06:21) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. thrown to ARIZ17Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
40.2%
(06:15) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARIZ42 (#42 D.Lolesio; #41 J.Savaiinaea)Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+2
37.6%
(05:34) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at ARIZ41, for 2 yards to the ARIZ40 (#13 C.Chapa)Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+11
36.0%
(04:49) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush left for 11 yards gain to the ARIZ29 (#48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
31.4%
(04:08) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at ARIZ30, for 10 yards to the ARIZ19 (#51 K.Lafitaga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
29.1%
(03:33) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at ARIZ11, for 8 yards to the ARIZ11, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
27.6%
(03:00) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ06 (#48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.9%
(02:21) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #83 J.Fowler caught at ARIZ06, for 0 yards to the ARIZ06 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
23.2%
(01:40) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at ARIZ00, for 6 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:35 PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#76 T.Chambers) 5 yards from ARIZ06 to ARIZ11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
20.2%
(01:35) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Thompson thrown to ARIZ07Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
20.1%
(01:30) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ10 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #3 T.Smith)Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
20.8%
(00:46) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ARIZ20 (#48 C.Blomstrom, #6 T.Brown), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 7:4234% → 13%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
33.9%
(00:41) Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ22 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+22
31.9%
(00:05) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ30, for 22 yards to the ARIZ44 (#30 A.Ellis; #5 Y.Falke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
33.1%
(14:17) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #87 T.Powell caught at ARIZ48, for 8 yards to the NIU48 (#25 B.Kerperin; #20 M.Washington, Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
24.7%
(11:32) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #87 T.Powell caught at NIU48, for 0 yards to the NIU48 (#20 M.Washington, Jr.; #25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
23.1%
(11:32) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU45 (#20 M.Washington, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
23.3%
(11:32) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to NIU32Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
18.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NIU38 (#18 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
17.3%
(09:49) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #11 C.Hunter caught at NIU34, for 6 yards to the NIU32 (#12 A.Warren), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
16.0%
(09:09) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU31 (#30 A.Ellis)Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
14.7%
(08:45) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #44 A.Roberts caught at NIU37, for 1 yard to the NIU30 (#20 M.Washington, Jr.; #97 J.King)Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
13.3%
Noah Fifita 30 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:0694% → 95%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.1%
(06:48) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #87 L.Russo caught at NIU25, for 8 yards to the NIU33 (#15 M.Hartzog; #9 T.Boss)Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
6.1%
(06:43) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 18 yards gain to the ARIZ49 (#9 T.Boss; #23 G.Hunter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
5.6%
(06:43) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NIU49 (#27 K.Harris)Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+1
5.7%
(06:43) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU50 (#0 D.Fifita; #44 P.Williams)Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 11
50
+12
5.7%
(06:43) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #88 Z.McKinney caught at ARIZ38, for 12 yards to the ARIZ38 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
5.5%
(06:43) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ37 (#0 D.Fifita)Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
4.9%
(06:04) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ36 (#27 K.Harris)Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
4.9%
(05:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Lewis thrown to ARIZ10Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+54
4.8%
(05:57) #33 J.Schlenhardt field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans), clock 05:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:155% → 5%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
5.4%
(05:28) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARIZ40, for 7 yards to the ARIZ43 (#5 Y.Falke; #30 A.Ellis)Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
4.9%
(03:49) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ50 (#14 M.Armstrong; #5 Y.Falke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
4.3%
(03:44) Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU47 (#25 B.Kerperin; #0 M.Canion)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+32
4.4%
(03:33) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete deep left to #2 R.Mosley caught at NIU15, for 32 yards to the NIU15, out of bounds at NIU15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
5.2%
(03:33) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU10 (#18 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
5.2%
(03:33) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Mosley thrown to NIU00Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-35
5.0%
(03:33) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass intercepted by #5 Y.Falke at NIU02 #5 Y.Falke return 35 yards to the NIU37 (#0 W.Yarbrough) PENALTY ARIZ UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#7 S.Anderson) 15 yards from NIU37 to ARIZ48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:2097% → 99%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
2.8%
(03:33) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete deep left to #88 Z.McKinney thrown to ARIZ12 PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (#30 X.Hiler) 15 yards from ARIZ48 to ARIZ33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
2.3%
(03:25) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ31 (#45 V.Johnson)Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
2.2%
(02:52) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete short left to #88 Z.McKinney thrown to ARIZ22Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+7
2.3%
(02:48) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short middle to #87 L.Russo caught at ARIZ24, for 7 yards to the ARIZ24 (#17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
1.7%
(02:04) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ21 (#55 L.Su'a; #44 P.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
1.5%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short right to #24 E.Porter caught at ARIZ26, for 5 yards loss to the ARIZ26 (#55 L.Su'a)Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+5
1.4%
(01:23) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short middle to #88 Z.McKinney caught at ARIZ21, for 5 yards to the ARIZ21 (#28 S.Griffin)Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
1.4%
(00:44) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass incomplete deep right to #0 L.Bryant thrown to ARIZ00Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+20
1.5%
(00:38) Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete deep right to #0 L.Bryant caught at ARIZ01, for 20 yards to the ARIZ01, out of bounds at ARIZ01, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.4%
Elijah Porter 1 Yd Run (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.5%
(00:16) Kneel down by #7 S.Anderson at ARIZ24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.6
TD · Q3 9:01
Tyler Powell 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
-1.8
TD · Q4 7:54
Noah Fifita 30 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
-1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com