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UCF

UCF 7 at Pittsburgh 12

PITT
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:31 · (08:33) #98 G.Russo punt 43 yards to the UCF07, out of bounds at UCF07
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+14.5Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 2:51: Waden Charles 19 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick) — UCF win probability +22.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:46: (02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the Pitt24 (#8 D.Henderson) — PITT win probability +14.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q4 2:24: (02:24) #98 G.Russo punt 44 yards to the UCF22 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF22 — UCF win probability +33.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20: (01:22) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF28 for loss of 2 yards — PITT win probability +25.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: (00:18) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF30 for loss of 1 yard — UCF win probability +18.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 12UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:47PITT 4th & 4 at UCF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29UCF 4th & 14 at PITT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:12PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:07UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:18PITT 4th & 1 at UCF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:04PITT 4th & 6 at UCF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:54UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:31PITT 4th & 8 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:28PITT 4th & 5 at UCF 44, up 5
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 10, down 5
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:36UCF 4th & 3 at midfield, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:07PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07UCF 4th & 7 at PITT 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:19PITT 4th & 1 at UCF 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−3.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:28PITT 4th & 11 at UCF 40, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:38UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 13, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:09PITT 4th & 7 at UCF 45, up 12
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:06UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:45PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 29, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:24PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−3.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:23UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 28, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:28PITT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:51UCF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:1172% → 72%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
72.4%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (#74 N.Olivieri) 4 yards from Pitt08 to Pitt04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+3
72.4%
(14:56) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Pitt07 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+41
72.3%
(14:27) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep right to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt30, for 41 yards to the Pitt48 (#4 B.Marshall), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UCF Offside declinedSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.4%
(14:04) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #7 M.Knight thrown to UCF48Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
72.3%
(13:58) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt49 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
72.2%
(13:26) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush left for 5 yards gain to the UCF46 (#34 J.Culbreath; #99 T.Collins)Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
72.1%
(12:51) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #10 C.Lee thrown to UCF46 broken up by #7 A.Jackson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:1628% → 28%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.8%
(12:46) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right to #26 D.Watson thrown to UCF41Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
71.9%
(12:43) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCF47 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+14
71.8%
(12:19) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #0 D.Wade caught at Pitt39, for 14 yards to the Pitt39 (#14 J.Guerrier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
71.5%
(11:41) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #6 R.Farmer caught at Pitt35, for 4 yards to the Pitt35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
71.3%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 0 yards to the Pitt35 (#14 J.Guerrier), out of bounds PENALTY UCF Holding (#73 H.Tabansi) 10 yards from Pitt35 to Pitt45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+3
71.4%
(11:05) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #5 J.Derry caught at Pitt49, for 3 yards to the Pitt42 (#14 J.Guerrier)Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+4
71.4%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #6 R.Farmer caught at Pitt38, for 4 yards to the Pitt38 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+5
71.4%
PENALTY UCF Delay Of Game 5 yards from Pitt38 to Pitt43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
71.6%
(09:35) #49 A.Bertrams punt 29 yards to the Pitt14, out of bounds at Pitt14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1271% → 71%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
71.4%
(09:29) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 3 yards gain to the Pitt17 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-1
71.2%
(08:55) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Pitt16 (#0 H.Lockett)Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
70.8%
(08:23) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Pitt35Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
70.5%
(08:19) #98 G.Russo punt 51 yards to the UCF33 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0329% → 30%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.8%
(08:13) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #6 R.Farmer thrown to UCF32 broken up by #5 Z.CrothersSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.9%
(08:10) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #6 R.Farmer thrown to UCF33Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+8
71.0%
(08:06) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF41, for 8 yards to the UCF41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+1
70.5%
(07:15) #49 A.Bertrams punt 53 yards to the Pitt06 #3 C.Hicks return 1 yard to the Pitt07 (#21 T.Bartrum), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5FG
19 plays · 83 yds · 6:4971% → 71%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
70.5%
(07:07) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at Pitt05, for 9 yards to the Pitt16 (#38 J.Jennings)Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+7
70.6%
(06:42) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush left for 7 yards gain to the Pitt23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
70.5%
(06:12) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain (1) to the Pitt30 (#1 J.Bellamy) PENALTY Pitt Holding (#55 B.Williams) 10 yards from Pitt24 to Pitt14Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 19
OWN 14
+3
70.4%
(05:47) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt16, for 3 yards to the Pitt17 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+17
70.1%
(05:08) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #7 M.Knight caught at Pitt33, for 17 yards to the Pitt34 (#2 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.3%
(04:38) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt35 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
70.2%
(04:22) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #17 E.Lagg caught at Pitt40, for 8 yards to the Pitt43 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
70.7%
(04:09) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 2 yards loss to the Pitt41 (#0 H.Lockett) PENALTY UCF Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Pitt43 to Pitt48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
71.0%
(04:03) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF49 (#2 J.Williams; #24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
71.1%
(03:30) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #11 L.Wright thrown to UCF45 QB hurried by #12 A.KoumbaSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+17
70.6%
(03:27) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #4 B.Yates caught at UCF32, for 17 yards to the UCF32 (#1 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
71.3%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF30 (#24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
71.4%
(02:23) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at UCF34, for 4 yards to the UCF26 QB hurried by #20 L.Carter (#6 I.Nixon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
70.9%
(01:54) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF23 (#14 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+9
70.3%
(01:24) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush right for 9 yards gain to the UCF14 (#1 J.Bellamy; #4 B.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
71.2%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #11 L.Wright thrown to UCF05 QB hurried by #93 B.Gurley Jr. and #10 S.EdwardsSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
71.2%
(00:50) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #2 T.Kinsler thrown to UCF10 QB hurried by #92 J.LafontantSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+4
70.7%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at UCF10, for 4 yards to the UCF10 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
70.7%
(00:04) #48 A.Chadha field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #92 K.Tijerina, LS: #59 J.Schmidt), clock 00:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5930% → 30%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
70.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #2 T.Hornes caught at UCF30, for 21 yards to the UCF38 (#6 R.Strader), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Wade thrown to Pitt50Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
69.7%
(14:18) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF42 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+1
69.4%
(13:37) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #26 D.Watson caught at UCF43, for 1 yard to the UCF43 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
70.2%
(12:59) #49 A.Bertrams punt 44 yards to the Pitt13 fair catch by #3 C.Hicks at Pitt13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:1770% → 69%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
69.8%
(12:53) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the Pitt15 (#4 B.Marshall; #34 J.Culbreath)Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
69.6%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Pitt17 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+19
68.8%
(11:29) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt31, for 19 yards to the Pitt36 QB hurried by #34 J.Culbreath (#11 K.Talley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
70.2%
(10:58) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush left for 5 yards gain to the Pitt41, out of bounds at Pitt41Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
70.9%
(10:25) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the Pitt48 (#12 A.Koumba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.1%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Hicks thrown to UCF40 broken up by #1 J.BellamySimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
70.8%
(09:59) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #17 E.Lagg caught at UCF44, for 9 yards to the UCF43 (#10 S.Edwards)Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-2
71.0%
(09:19) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 2 yards loss to the UCF45 (#10 S.Edwards)Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+5
69.9%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (#71 R.Carretta) 5 yards from UCF45 to UCF50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 8
50
0
69.0%
(08:33) #98 G.Russo punt 43 yards to the UCF07, out of bounds at UCF07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8SF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5730% → 28%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
69.8%
(08:30) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF10, for 6 yards to the UCF13 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+5
70.0%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF15 (#2 I.Neal; #32 J.Marcelin) PENALTY UCF Illegal Shift 5 yards from UCF13 to UCF08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
71.6%
Braylan Lovelace SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4774% → 74%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
74.1%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt41 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
75.0%
(06:43) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #4 B.Yates caught at Pitt50, for 10 yards to the UCF49 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
75.4%
(06:09) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF47 (#21 T.Bartrum)Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
75.4%
(05:23) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush right for 3 yards gain to the UCF44 (#11 K.Talley; #20 L.Carter)Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
74.8%
(04:41) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep right to #3 C.Hicks thrown to UCF20Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
73.9%
(04:37) #98 G.Russo punt 41 yards to the UCF03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1929% → 28%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
71.3%
(04:25) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCF04 (#12 C.Brookins; #55 S.FitzSimmons)Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
71.5%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #5 J.Derry caught at UCF10, for 6 yards to the UCF10, out of bounds at UCF10Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
71.9%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short left to #6 R.Farmer thrown to UCF16Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+12
72.4%
(03:08) #49 A.Bertrams punt 46 yards to the Pitt44 #3 C.Hicks return 12 yards to the UCF44 (#4 T.Swint), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1876% → 83%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
75.6%
(02:56) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #86 C.Kent caught at UCF40, for 5 yards to the UCF39 (#20 L.Carter; #24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
75.6%
(02:14) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #86 C.Kent thrown to UCF35 QB hurried by #99 T.CollinsSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+14
75.1%
(02:11) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. caught at UCF34, for 14 yards to the UCF25 (#24 T.Curtis; #18 C.Flagg), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
76.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF24 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
76.2%
(01:17) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the UCF17 (#20 L.Carter; #18 C.Flagg)Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
75.3%
(00:54) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF13 (#24 T.Curtis; #7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.9%
Damon Ferguson Jr. 13 Yd Run (Antonio Chadha Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0919% → 20%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCF26 (#5 Z.Crothers), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
81.2%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #26 D.Watson caught at UCF29, for 8 yards to the UCF34 (#3 S.Lee Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
80.5%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 21 yards gain to the Pitt45 (#12 C.Brookins) PENALTY UCF Holding (#26 D.Watson) 10 yards from UCF34 to UCF24. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:0918% → 19%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 18 yards gain to the UCF43, out of bounds at UCF43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
81.7%
(14:20) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF50, for 7 yards to the UCF50 (#3 S.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
50
0
80.7%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right to #9 W.Charles thrown to Pitt45 QB hurried by #2 I.NealSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
50
0
81.1%
(13:43) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short left to #18 C.Piening thrown to Pitt47 broken up by #12 C.BrookinsSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 3
50
0
80.6%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete deep left to #3 J.Bibbs thrown to Pitt18 QB hurried by #12 C.Brookins, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:2284% → 82%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.7%
(13:34) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCF49 (#1 J.Bellamy; #24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
84.0%
(12:55) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF46 (#6 I.Nixon; #20 L.Carter)Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+10
83.7%
(12:13) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCF45 (#24 T.Curtis; #54 T.Turner) PENALTY Pitt Holding (#71 R.Carretta) 10 yards from UCF46 to Pitt44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 16
OWN 44
0
83.1%
(11:50) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt44 (#34 J.Culbreath)Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
82.4%
(11:12) #98 G.Russo punt 27 yards to the UCF29, out of bounds at UCF29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:5418% → 17%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
82.1%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UCF27 (#44 J.Scott)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-2
82.9%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #26 D.Watson caught at UCF25, for 2 yards loss to the UCF25 (#2 I.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+35
83.6%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep right to #6 R.Farmer caught at UCF45, for 35 yards to the Pitt40 (#14 J.Guerrier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
81.1%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 8 yards loss to the Pitt48 fumbled by #14 A.Barnett III at Pitt48 recovered by UCF #14 A.Barnett III at Pitt48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+6
83.0%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #11 L.Chambers caught at Pitt49, for 6 yards to the Pitt42 (#0 B.Lovelace; #6 R.Strader), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+5
82.4%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 5 yards gain to the Pitt37 (#10 A.Sanford)Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
83.5%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Derry thrown to Pitt22 broken up by #6 R.Strader, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 5:3986% → 88%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.1%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (#71 R.Carretta) 5 yards from Pitt37 to Pitt32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+18
85.7%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #11 L.Wright caught at Pitt35, for 18 yards to the Pitt50 (#21 T.Bartrum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
50
+6
87.1%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 6 yards gain to the UCF44 (#38 J.Jennings)Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
87.2%
(05:49) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF41 (#93 B.Gurley Jr.; #8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
86.8%
(05:08) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 0 yards to the UCF41 (#99 T.Collins; #20 L.Carter)Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
87.2%
(04:23) Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush left for 2 yards gain to the UCF39 (#8 D.Henderson; #24 T.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
88.8%
(03:44) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCF34 (#11 K.Talley; #2 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
89.0%
(02:51) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF33 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-4
88.9%
(02:18) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UCF40 (#11 K.Talley, #0 H.Lockett)Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
88.4%
(01:30) #98 G.Russo punt 40 yards to the UCF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4313% → 12%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
86.6%
(01:24) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 2 yards loss to the UCF18 (#14 J.Guerrier)Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
87.1%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Derry thrown to UCF23 broken up by #21 S.HarrisonSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
87.3%
(00:48) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Wade thrown to UCF09 broken up by #5 Z.CrothersSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+5
87.6%
PENALTY UCF Delay Of Game (#49 A.Bertrams) 5 yards from UCF18 to UCF13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
87.6%
(00:38) #49 A.Bertrams punt 50 yards to the Pitt37 fair catch by #3 C.Hicks at Pitt37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:2790% → 93%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
90.0%
(00:36) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 3 yards loss to the Pitt34 (#92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
89.7%
(14:58) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #2 T.Kinsler caught at Pitt39, for 6 yards to the Pitt40 (#38 J.Jennings)Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
89.9%
(14:22) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #10 C.Lee caught at UCF48, for 12 yards to the UCF48 (#18 C.Flagg), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.3%
(13:43) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF46 (#4 B.Marshall; #1 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
91.3%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep right to #26 D.Ferguson Jr. thrown to UCF22Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
90.8%
(13:15) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #10 C.Lee caught at UCF41, for 6 yards to the UCF40 (#34 J.Culbreath)Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
92.8%
PENALTY Pitt Delay Of Game (#6 M.Heintschel) 5 yards from UCF40 to UCF45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+17
93.4%
(12:19) #98 G.Russo punt 45 yards to the UCF00 #7 A.Jackson return 17 yards to the UCF17 (#4 B.Yates) PENALTY Pitt Holding (#10 A.Sanford) 10 yards from UCF17 to UCF27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:5311% → 8%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
88.7%
(12:09) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #6 R.Farmer caught at UCF34, for 9 yards to the UCF36 (#14 J.Guerrier; #32 J.Marcelin)Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+8
87.6%
(11:32) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UCF44 (#12 C.Brookins; #3 S.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
88.7%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 8 yards gain to the Pitt48 (#7 D.Ward)Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-4
89.7%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UCF48 (#7 D.Ward; #8 J.Moore)Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-9
90.3%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UCF39 (#10 A.Sanford)Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 15
OWN 39
+4
92.2%
(09:17) #49 A.Bertrams punt 45 yards to the Pitt16 #3 C.Hicks return 4 yards to the Pitt20 (#88 G.Brousseau; #44 K.Hicks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1595% → 96%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.7%
(09:05) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Pitt26 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
95.0%
(08:20) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Pitt29 (#20 L.Carter; #24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
95.2%
(07:38) Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt29 (#21 T.Bartrum; #38 J.Jennings)Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
95.5%
(06:46) #98 G.Russo punt 35 yards to the UCF36 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:458% → 28%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
91.7%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 10 yards gain to the UCF46 (#6 R.Strader), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
92.0%
(06:04) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #13 C.Rollerson caught at Pitt49, for 12 yards to the Pitt42 (#6 R.Strader), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
92.0%
(05:44) Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt41 (#0 B.Lovelace; #55 S.FitzSimmons)Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+15
92.4%
(05:20) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete deep right to #9 W.Charles thrown to Pitt01 QB hurried by #32 J.Marcelin PENALTY Pitt Pass Interference (#14 J.Guerrier) 15 yards from Pitt41 to Pitt26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
91.5%
(05:09) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #3 J.Bibbs caught at Pitt19, for 8 yards to the Pitt18 (#14 J.Guerrier)Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-2
91.9%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Swint rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Pitt20 (#21 S.Harrison)Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+14
92.3%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 14 yards gain to the Pitt06, out of bounds at Pitt06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-18
93.5%
(03:42) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 18 yards loss to the Pitt24 fumbled by #14 A.Barnett III at Pitt06 recovered by UCF #14 A.Barnett III at Pitt24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+10
93.9%
(03:30) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #13 C.Rollerson caught at Pitt17, for 10 yards to the Pitt14 (#14 J.Guerrier; #32 J.Marcelin)Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
94.2%
PENALTY UCF False Start (#78 P.Cushman) 5 yards from Pitt14 to Pitt19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
72.2%
Waden Charles 19 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2289% → 49%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.1%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Ferguson Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the Pitt24 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
88.6%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #11 L.Wright thrown to Pitt28Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
88.0%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #11 L.Wright caught at Pitt27, for 10 yards to the Pitt34 (#24 T.Curtis)Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
48.8%
(02:24) #98 G.Russo punt 44 yards to the UCF22 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4963% → 67%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
37.3%
(02:19) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF24 (#10 A.Sanford; #44 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
36.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (#6 R.Farmer) 5 yards from UCF24 to UCF19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+7
34.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #9 W.Charles caught at UCF25, for 7 yards to the UCF26 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+2
33.9%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF28 (#5 Z.Crothers)Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-1
33.5%
(01:28) Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UCF26 (#7 D.Ward, #32 J.Marcelin), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0559% → 36%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
59.3%
(01:22) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF28 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-1
54.9%
(00:46) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF29 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 13
OPP 29
-1
36.1%
(00:18) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF30 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+74.8
PUNT · Q4 2:24
(02:24) #98 G.Russo punt 44 yards to the UCF22 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF22
-33.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20
(01:22) Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF28 for loss of 2 yards
+25.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com