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ISU

Iowa State 13 at Iowa 16

IOWA
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:57 · (04:01) #99 J.DuPont punt 43 yards to the IOWA27 fair catch by #2 R.Vander Zee at IOWA27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+21.7Home team on offense−2.5Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: (07:54) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #37 V.Benetti caught at IOWA04, for 4 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELD #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler) — ISU win probability +7.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:34: (05:34) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz) — IOWA win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q4 6:22: (06:22) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 06:22 — IOWA win probability +14.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: (01:49) Shotgun #5 N.McNeil rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ISU26 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #92 C.Crawford) — IOWA win probability +19.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:15: (00:17) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 00:15 — IOWA win probability +29.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:16IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28IOWA 4th & 1 at ISU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:51IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17ISU 4th & 6 at IOWA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:25IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:57ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28IOWA 4th & 10 at ISU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:06ISU 4th & 25 at IOWA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:05IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 46, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 10, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:45IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:10ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−6.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:07IOWA 4th & 15 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:32ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−2.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:22IOWA 4th & 1 at ISU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−19.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:28ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−2.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:15IOWA 4th & 1 at ISU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−3.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−26.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:51ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:34IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:2985% → 84%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA22, for 6 yards to the IOWA31 (#6 D.Surges)Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.1%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#81 D.Vonnahme) 5 yards from IOWA31 to IOWA26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
85.0%
(14:21) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
84.8%
(13:46) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA32, for 9 yards to the IOWA38 (#24 B.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
84.7%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#2 R.Vander Zee) 5 yards from IOWA38 to IOWA33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
84.6%
(12:43) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#11 W.Breland)Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
84.4%
(12:07) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to IOWA35 broken up by #7 S.SchlimgenSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+9
84.3%
(12:03) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush middle for 9 yards gain to the IOWA45 (#99 B.Lamb)Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
84.2%
(11:17) #49 B.Everitt punt 46 yards to the ISU09 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at ISU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0716% → 16%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
84.1%
(11:14) #21 A.Flora rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU11 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+7
83.9%
(10:33) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #9 O.Hayes caught at ISU14, for 7 yards to the ISU18 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
83.7%
(09:52) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU18 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
83.7%
(09:06) #99 J.DuPont punt 47 yards to the IOWA35 fair catch by #2 R.Vander Zee at IOWA35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:2383% → 83%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
83.4%
(09:01) #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA49, for 16 yards to the ISU49 (#3 S.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
83.6%
(08:26) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the ISU46 (#6 D.Surges)Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
83.4%
(07:53) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #28 K.Moulton caught at ISU48, for 4 yards to the ISU42 (#5 B.Ngoyi)Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
83.2%
(07:13) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at ISU40, for 2 yards to the ISU40 (#11 W.Breland)Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
82.8%
(06:31) #9 H.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU40 (#0 Z.Hawk; #98 M.Ta'ase), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0318% → 18%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.1%
(06:27) #0 C.Pettaway rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU42 (#3 J.Watson; #96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
81.9%
(05:47) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete deep middle to #2 C.Jackson thrown to IOWA15Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
82.0%
(05:41) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #8 E.Boyd caught at ISU45, for 6 yards to the ISU48 (#36 J.Montgomery; #3 J.Watson)Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
81.9%
(05:26) #95 E.Gurney punt 47 yards to the IOWA05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1882% → 81%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
82.0%
(05:15) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA06 (#0 Z.Hawk)Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
81.8%
(04:40) #81 D.Vonnahme rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA08 (#92 C.Crawford)Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
81.3%
(04:01) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #14 T.Diaz thrown to IOWA15Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
81.1%
(03:55) #49 B.Everitt punt 37 yards to the IOWA45 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at IOWA45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:2619% → 22%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
80.8%
(03:50) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush right for 1 yard gain to the IOWA44 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
80.5%
(03:14) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA40 (#33 C.Buffington; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
80.5%
(02:52) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #37 V.Benetti caught at IOWA35, for 6 yards to the IOWA34 (#11 J.Wallace; #33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
79.6%
(02:13) #3 A.Barnes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#44 K.Merrieweather; #11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+15
79.1%
(01:33) #9 O.Hayes rush left for 15 yards gain to the IOWA15 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.8%
(00:49) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short middle to #37 V.Benetti thrown to IOWA03 broken up by #6 Z.LutmerSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
78.8%
(00:46) #0 C.Pettaway rush left for 2 yards gain to the IOWA13 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+2
78.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA11 (#51 L.Gaffney; #96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
78.1%
(14:17) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler), clock 14:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4479% → 77%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.5%
(14:16) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#92 C.Crawford)Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.3%
(13:41) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to ISU45Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
77.6%
(13:36) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep middle to #14 T.Diaz thrown to ISU35Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
77.4%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#22 D.Weisskopf) 5 yards from IOWA27 to IOWA22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
77.3%
(13:25) #49 B.Everitt punt 44 yards to the ISU34 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at ISU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:2723% → 35%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
77.4%
(13:24) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ISU39 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
76.5%
(12:46) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ISU45 (#5 A.Hawkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
76.1%
(12:06) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU47 (#33 C.Buffington; #51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
75.7%
(11:25) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 5 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+28
75.1%
(10:42) #1 J.Raynor pass complete deep left to #9 O.Hayes caught at IOWA22, for 28 yards to the IOWA20 (#5 A.Hawkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.1%
(10:10) #25 E.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA17 (#43 K.Brown)Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
73.6%
(09:40) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 5 yards gain to the IOWA12 (#43 K.Brown; #23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
73.7%
(08:59) #3 A.Barnes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA08 (#33 C.Buffington; #8 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
72.8%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA04 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.0%
(07:54) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #37 V.Benetti caught at IOWA04, for 4 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELD #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0766% → 75%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.1%
(07:48) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA31, for 12 yards to the IOWA37 (#6 D.Surges; #24 B.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
65.9%
(07:12) #9 H.Brown pass complete deep middle to #14 T.Diaz caught at ISU13, for 56 yards to the ISU07 (#3 S.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
67.8%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ISU01 (#6 D.Surges)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.3%
(06:20) No Huddle #9 H.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU01 (#99 B.Lamb; #97 M.Baloun)Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.7%
(05:34) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1828% → 27%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.0%
(05:34) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ISU31 (#97 I.Epenesa)Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
70.8%
(04:49) #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #89 T.Claiborne thrown to ISU46 broken up by #6 Z.LutmerSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
71.7%
(04:44) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ISU30 (#97 I.Epenesa; #11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
72.6%
(04:01) #99 J.DuPont punt 43 yards to the IOWA27 fair catch by #2 R.Vander Zee at IOWA27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 3:2172% → 75%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
71.9%
(03:55) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
71.6%
(03:27) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #85 T.Meyer caught at IOWA35, for 5 yards to the IOWA35 (#10 C.Willich; #6 D.Surges)Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+9
71.5%
(02:49) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush middle for 9 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#7 S.Schlimgen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
72.3%
(02:10) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at ISU44, for 12 yards to the ISU44 (#18 D.Coffey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
72.1%
(01:59) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at ISU49, for 4 yards to the ISU40 (#93 J.Janikowski)Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+13
72.0%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at ISU32, for 13 yards to the ISU27 (#10 C.Willich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.0%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #28 K.Moulton thrown to ISU27Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
72.8%
(01:20) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to ISU02 broken up by #5 B.NgoyiSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
71.5%
(01:14) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU27 (#88 I.Terrell)Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
74.6%
(00:31) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 00:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.0%
(00:23) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU27 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:4729% → 34%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 3 yards gain to the ISU28 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
70.7%
(14:18) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #9 O.Hayes caught at ISU23, for 4 yards to the ISU32, out of bounds at ISU32Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
70.5%
(13:35) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #89 T.Claiborne caught at ISU43, for 15 yards to the ISU47 (#33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
67.8%
(12:58) #21 A.Flora rush left for 34 yards gain to the IOWA19 (#3 J.Watson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
65.9%
(12:11) PENALTY ISU Holding (#63 B.Smith) 10 yards from IOWA19 to IOWA29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 20
OPP 29
-4
66.6%
(11:47) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 4 yards loss to the IOWA33 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 24
OPP 33
+5
67.1%
PENALTY ISU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from IOWA33 to IOWA38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 29
OPP 38
+4
67.7%
(10:58) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA34 (#44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 25
OPP 34
0
68.3%
(10:16) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete deep right to #2 C.Jackson thrown to IOWA03 broken up by #3 J.WatsonSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 25
OPP 34
+51
65.9%
(10:08) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #99 J.DuPont, LS: #57 G.Schieler), clock 10:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5065% → 64%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.7%
(10:04) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA30, for 13 yards to the IOWA38 (#18 D.Coffey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
65.9%
(09:31) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #99 B.Lamb)Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
67.2%
(08:56) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA46, for 4 yards to the IOWA46 (#10 C.Willich)Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
66.0%
(08:18) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #87 A.Ostrenga thrown to IOWA49 broken up by #92 C.CrawfordSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
64.4%
(08:16) #49 B.Everitt punt 51 yards to the ISU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1838% → 38%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
61.8%
(08:05) #21 A.Flora rush right for 0 yards to the ISU03 (#33 C.Buffington; #3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
61.6%
(07:23) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU04 (#96 B.Hawthorne; #44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+6
62.3%
(06:45) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush left for 6 yards gain to the ISU10 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
62.4%
(05:58) #99 J.DuPont punt 58 yards to the IOWA32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4462% → 63%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
62.1%
(05:38) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA28, for 4 yards loss to the IOWA28 (#10 C.Willich)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
60.3%
(05:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA25, for 0 yards to the IOWA28 (#3 S.Johnson)Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+7
58.0%
(04:21) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA33, for 7 yards to the IOWA35 (#6 D.Surges)Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+5
59.4%
PENALTY ISU Offside (#50 J.Limbaugh) 5 yards from IOWA35 to IOWA40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
62.6%
(03:54) #49 B.Everitt punt 45 yards to the ISU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2843% → 43%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
57.5%
(03:43) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ISU19 (#33 C.Buffington; #51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
56.9%
(03:08) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #21 A.Flora caught at ISU13, for 3 yards to the ISU22 (#8 D.Lee), out of bounds PENALTY ISU Holding (#37 V.Benetti) 10 yards from ISU22 to ISU12Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+20
57.0%
(02:43) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #13 J.Polite caught at ISU30, for 20 yards to the ISU32 (#8 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
55.0%
(02:12) #3 A.Barnes rush right for 1 yard gain (1) to the ISU33 (#3 J.Watson), out of bounds PENALTY ISU Holding (#37 V.Benetti) 10 yards from ISU33 to ISU23Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 19
OWN 23
0
56.0%
(01:45) #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Barnes thrown to ISU32Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+3
56.0%
(01:43) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush right for 3 yards gain to the ISU26 (#96 B.Hawthorne; #13 D.Campbell)Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
56.8%
(01:04) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short left to #9 O.Hayes thrown to ISU38Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
57.5%
(00:16) #99 J.DuPont punt 19 yards to the ISU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0263% → 56%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
63.3%
(00:09) PENALTY IOWA Holding (#71 J.Dotzler) 10 yards from ISU45 to IOWA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+5
59.3%
(14:56) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA50 (#24 B.Miller; #34 B.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 15
50
0
58.9%
(14:21) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #14 T.Diaz thrown to ISU17Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 15
50
0
57.5%
(14:18) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to ISU35 broken up by #18 D.CoffeySimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 15
50
0
56.1%
(14:12) #49 B.Everitt punt 41 yards to the ISU09 fair catch by #9 O.Hayes at ISU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2845% → 47%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
54.7%
(14:07) #21 A.Flora rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU10 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
53.2%
(13:27) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #9 O.Hayes thrown to ISU15 broken up by #44 K.MerrieweatherSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+3
54.3%
(13:24) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU13 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+11
53.0%
(12:43) #99 J.DuPont punt 55 yards to the IOWA32 #2 R.Vander Zee return 11 yards to the IOWA43 (#3 S.Johnson; #12 E.Stecker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 6:0458% → 66%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
58.0%
(12:31) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA46 (#34 B.Goodwin; #98 M.Ta'ase)Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
58.0%
(11:55) #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA48, for 6 yards to the ISU48 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
57.6%
(11:14) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU45 (#98 M.Ta'ase), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
55.8%
(10:41) #26 X.Williams rush right for 0 yards to the ISU45 (#34 B.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
55.2%
(10:16) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at ISU40, for 12 yards to the ISU33 (#31 M.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
58.6%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 7 yards gain to the ISU26 (#89 D.Fitzmaurice)Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+3
58.2%
(09:12) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at ISU29, for 3 yards to the ISU23 (#34 B.Goodwin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
57.6%
(08:24) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 5 yards gain to the ISU18 (#9 J.Singletary)Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
57.2%
(07:46) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the ISU17 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
52.1%
(07:09) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #8 E.James caught at ISU16, for 3 yards to the ISU14 (#18 D.Coffey), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
66.4%
(06:22) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 06:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4444% → 42%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
55.9%
(06:20) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor rush right for 2 yards loss to the ISU23 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
55.9%
(05:42) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 11 yards gain to the ISU34 (#5 A.Hawkins)Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
53.0%
(04:58) PENALTY ISU False Start (#51 M.King) 5 yards from ISU34 to ISU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
55.8%
(04:39) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Pabst thrown to ISU35Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
58.1%
(04:37) #99 J.DuPont punt 38 yards to the IOWA33 #2 R.Vander Zee return 12 yards to the IOWA45 (#5 B.Ngoyi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:0266% → 96%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
66.3%
(04:28) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA46, for 8 yards to the ISU47 (#7 S.Schlimgen)Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
67.8%
(03:46) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU44 (#10 C.Willich; #7 S.Schlimgen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
67.4%
(03:14) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ISU39 (#34 B.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
67.3%
(02:35) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU37 (#18 D.Coffey)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
63.8%
(01:59) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ISU33 (#10 C.Willich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
69.5%
(01:49) Shotgun #5 N.McNeil rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ISU26 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #92 C.Crawford)Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
69.4%
(01:47) Shotgun #5 N.McNeil rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU24 (#21 D.Goodman)Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
66.3%
(01:03) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU24 (#89 D.Fitzmaurice; #88 I.Terrell)Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
95.8%
(00:17) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 00:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0311% → 11%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
(00:14) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass incomplete deep middle to #89 T.Claiborne thrown to ISU50 broken up by #6 Z.LutmerSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
89.2%
(00:06) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete deep middle to #4 C.Pabst caught at ISU49, for 24 yards to the ISU49 (#18 X.Styles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:15
(00:17) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 00:15
+29.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48
(01:49) Shotgun #5 N.McNeil rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ISU26 (#7 S.Schlimgen; #92 C.Crawford)
+19.4
FG · Q4 6:22
(06:22) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 06:22
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com