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BC

Boston College 15 at Cincinnati 34

CIN
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-7.8CIN 88.8%Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for4 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN,clock 02:01 #10 M.McKenzie rushattempt SuccessfulAWAY 8 - HOME 24 · Q3 2:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:01 · Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:01 #10 M.McKenzie rush attempt Successful
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+15.3Pregame prior+5.2Score differential+6.9Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:48: No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE00, for 4 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +8.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:48: No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +11.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:24: No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:01: Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:01 #10 M.McKenzie rush attempt Successful — BC win probability +7.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:02: Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep middle to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at CIN00, for 23 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:02, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook) — BC win probability +2.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:13BC 4th & 9 at BC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27CIN 4th & 15 at BC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00BC 4th & 7 at BC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 13, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:08BC 4th & 3 at CIN 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17BC 4th & 9 at CIN 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:17CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 39, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57BC 4th & 9 at CIN 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:46CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12BC 4th & 10 at CIN 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:27CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:01BC 4th & 5 at CIN 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:40CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 34, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:59BC 4th & 2 at BC 28, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00CIN 4th & 7 at BC 26, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:51BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 7:48CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:48CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:24CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:01BC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:58CIN Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:02BC Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4732% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
68.3%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 18 yards gain to the BCE43 (#18 J.Beeler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 0 yards to the BCE43 (#3 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
68.3%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-3
68.3%
Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BCE44 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+12
68.0%
#96 B.LaFollette punt 45 yards to the CIN11 #8 C.Wolford return 12 yards to the CIN23 (#36 B.Kahoun)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4668% → 68%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
68.0%
Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN25 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+12
68.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 12 yards gain to the CIN37 (#3 M.Tucker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN38 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+31
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 31 yards gain to the BCE31 (#2 K.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush right for 2 yards gain to the BCE29 (#7 C.Davis). #7 C.Davis injured on the playSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-3
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BCE32 (#4 K.Jones)Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-2
68.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BCE36 (#55 C.Hudson, #56 E.Boykin)Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+54
68.1%
#99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 08:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2732% → 31%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #23 E.Dickens thrown to BCE23 QB hurried by #22 J.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BCE32 (#11 C.Otutu; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
68.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #84 B.Clough caught at BCE39, for 12 yards to the BCE44 (#0 J.Finley; #31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BCE46 (#9 D.Wilson)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
68.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete deep middle to #84 B.Clough thrown to CIN30Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+6
68.8%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #4 J.Green caught at CIN48, for 6 yards to the CIN48 (#2 M.Cannon)Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
68.7%
PENALTY BCE Delay Of Game 5 yards from CIN48 to BCE47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
69.3%
#96 B.LaFollette punt 42 yards to the CIN11 muffed by #8 C.Wolford at CIN11 recovered by CIN #8 C.Wolford at CIN11, End Of Play PENALTY CIN Holding 6 yards from CIN11 to CIN05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5269% → 68%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
69.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN07 (#56 E.Boykin)Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
69.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short right to #2 L.Fenner caught at CIN10, for 5 yards to the CIN12, out of bounds at CIN12Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+1
68.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 1 yard gain to the CIN13 (#56 E.Boykin), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+4
68.1%
#31 M.Fletcher punt 47 yards to the BCE40 #32 C.Comella return 4 yards to the BCE44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:5131% → 31%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
68.6%
PENALTY BCE False Start (#48 Z.Moore) 5 yards from BCE44 to BCE39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+7
69.1%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #48 Z.Moore caught at BCE41, for 7 yards to the BCE46 (#0 J.Finley; #18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-4
68.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 4 yards loss to the BCE42 (#10 P.Bauer)Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+9
69.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #4 J.Green caught at BCE47, for 9 yards to the CIN49 (#18 J.Beeler)Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+6
68.9%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
68.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 0 yards to the CIN43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
67.7%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN42 (#99 J.Rulo; #91 D.Logan)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Skeete thrown to CIN38 broken up by #9 D.WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
69.1%
#96 B.LaFollette punt 42 yards to the CIN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:2968% → 78%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.1%
Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN23 (#98 I.Oladipupo)Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #7 Z.Perry caught at CIN19, for 0 yards to the CIN23 (#2 K.Price; #1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
67.6%
PENALTY BCE Offside (#90 K.Sampson) 5 yards from CIN23 to CIN28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
67.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN34 fumbled by #5 S.Jones at CIN24 recovered by CIN #5 S.Jones at CIN24 (#5 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
68.3%
PENALTY CIN False Start 5 yards from CIN34 to CIN29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+7
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush right for 7 yards gain to the CIN36 (#32 C.Comella)Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-1
68.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN33, for 1 yard loss to the CIN35 (#7 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+4
67.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN39 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+8
67.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Henry pass complete short left to #31 M.Fletcher caught at CIN41, for 8 yards to the CIN47 (#0 T.Green), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
69.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE36, for 21 yards to the BCE32 (#5 M.Upton; #32 C.Comella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 18 yards gain to the BCE14 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE10 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short middle to #7 Z.Perry thrown to BCE10Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
69.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush left for 6 yards gain to the BCE04 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE00, for 4 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4424% → 22%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 4 yards gain to the BCE39 (#11 C.Otutu)Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
75.8%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BCE50 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #14 K.Meier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
75.0%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN47 (#11 C.Otutu)Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
74.9%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 2 yards to the CIN49 (#95 J.Hough)Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
75.8%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #84 B.Clough thrown to CIN45 broken up by #10 P.BauerSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
77.8%
#96 B.LaFollette punt 49 yards to the CIN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1177% → 76%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.9%
Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN23 (#36 B.Kahoun)Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
76.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN27 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
76.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #7 Z.Perry thrown to CIN30Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
76.1%
#31 M.Fletcher punt 46 yards to the BCE27 fair catch by #32 C.Comella at BCE27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9MISSED FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 3:3422% → 27%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
78.3%
PENALTY BCE False Start (#55 R.Smith IV) 5 yards from BCE27 to BCE22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
78.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BCE25 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+15
78.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #4 J.Green caught at BCE40, for 15 yards to the BCE40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
77.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BCE33 (#91 D.Logan)Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+7
78.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #84 B.Clough caught at BCE40, for 7 yards to the BCE40 (#22 J.Thompson; #12 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+20
78.8%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #4 J.Green caught at CIN48, for 20 yards to the CIN40 (#17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
76.0%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 4 yards gain to the CIN36 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
75.8%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Skeete thrown to CIN27 broken up by #8 K.Worthy, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 K.Worthy) 9 yards from CIN36 to CIN27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
75.0%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete deep left to #80 R.Swanson thrown to CIN00Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
75.2%
PENALTY BCE False Start (#1 J.Skeete) 5 yards from CIN27 to CIN32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
76.9%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #80 R.Swanson thrown to CIN18 QB hurried by #8 K.WorthySimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+15
78.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 15 yards gain to the CIN17 (#8 K.Worthy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #84 B.Clough thrown to CIN00Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
69.9%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #86 D.Edgehille thrown to CIN03 broken up by #3 A.Peek Jr.. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
71.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #80 R.Swanson thrown to CIN00 broken up by #2 M.CannonSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
73.0%
#99 L.Lombardo field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook), clock 00:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN23 (#6 C.Marable Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1278% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short right to #9 M.Henry thrown to CIN34 PENALTY CIN Holding offsetting BCE Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush left for 9 yards gain to the CIN34 (#3 M.Tucker)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
78.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CIN45 (#1 A.Palano; #7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Gibson thrown to BCE43. #4 K.Jones injured on the playSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush left for 9 yards gain to the BCE46 (#3 M.Tucker)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+19
78.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 19 yards gain to the BCE27 (#2 K.Price; #4 K.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BCE21 (#1 A.Palano; #7 C.Davis)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush right for 1 yard loss to the BCE22 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BCE04 (#5 M.Upton)Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
90.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush right for 8 yards gain to the BCE14 (#2 K.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BCE Holding (#5 M.Upton) 7 yards from BCE14 to BCE07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1411% → 12%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #4 J.Green caught at BCE23, for 5 yards to the BCE30 (#3 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
88.1%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush left for 10 yards gain to the BCE40 (#18 J.Beeler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.9%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BCE48 (#18 J.Beeler; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Green thrown to CIN48Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
87.7%
PENALTY BCE False Start (#52 J.Pruitt) 5 yards from BCE48 to BCE43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+13
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short middle to #84 B.Clough caught at BCE49, for 13 yards to the CIN44 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
88.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #84 B.Clough caught at CIN45, for 1 yard loss to the CIN45 fumbled by #84 B.Clough at CIN44 forced by #2 M.Cannon recovered by CIN #0 J.Finley at CIN45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:5993% → 97%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.5%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #87 G.Grover caught at CIN50, for 8 yards to the BCE47 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
92.6%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #18 G.Kontosis caught at BCE42, for 5 yards to the BCE42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
92.7%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush left for 2 yards gain to the BCE40 (#1 A.Palano; #2 K.Price)Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Perry rush left for 4 yards gain to the BCE36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+20
92.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush left for 20 yards gain to the BCE16 (#3 M.Tucker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
92.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE08, for 12 yards to the BCE04 (#1 A.Palano; #2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:234% → 11%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.5%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 14 yards gain to the BCE39 (#0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.8%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass intercepted by #8 K.Worthy at CIN38 #8 K.Worthy return 24 yards to the BCE38 (#48 Z.Moore; #52 J.Pruitt) PENALTY CIN Roughing The Passer (#9 D.Wilson) 15 yards from BCE39 to CIN46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. #10 M.McKenzie injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
96.8%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN42 (#10 P.Bauer; #99 J.Rulo)Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+27
96.7%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #23 E.Dickens caught at CIN46, for 27 yards to the CIN15 (#3 A.Peek Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
96.4%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #23 E.Dickens caught at CIN17, for 4 yards to the CIN11 (#8 K.Worthy), out of bounds PENALTY CIN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CIN15 to CIN10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+3
96.4%
Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN07 (#9 D.Wilson; #95 J.Hough). #77 M.Crounse injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
96.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN04 (#3 A.Peek Jr.; #95 J.Hough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.7%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left thrown to CIN02Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.8%
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:01 #10 M.McKenzie rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3493% → 93%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN29 (#0 T.Green) PENALTY CIN Personal Foul (#50 E.Tengesdahl) 14 yards from CIN29 to CIN15Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
93.0%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #2 L.Fenner caught at CIN20, for 6 yards to the CIN21 (#1 A.Palano; #3 M.Tucker)Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+5
92.8%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN26 (#13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.0%
#31 M.Fletcher punt 70 yards to the BCE04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 84 yds · 15:278% → 3%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
92.2%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BCE06 (#3 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+19
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #4 J.Green caught at BCE40, for 19 yards to the BCE41 (#2 M.Cannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BCE43 (#22 J.Thompson; #95 J.Hough)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
91.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #16 N.Boldin Jr. caught at BCE48, for 8 yards to the CIN49 (#0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
91.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush left for 9 yards gain to the CIN40 (#31 S.Coleman). #31 S.Coleman injured on the playSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
90.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN36 (#99 J.Rulo; #9 D.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
91.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush right for 16 yards gain to the CIN20 (#10 P.Bauer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right thrown to CIN15 QB hurried by #9 D.WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CIN09 (#17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
89.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN03 (#22 J.Thompson; #12 F.Maciorowski)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
89.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CIN05 (#91 D.Logan)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Montague Jr. thrown to CIN00 broken up by #2 M.Cannon QB hurried by #13 P.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
94.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CIN12 (#95 J.Hough, #12 F.Maciorowski), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+10
97.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.MacCormack III rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BCE16 (#18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush left for 24 yards gain to the BCE14 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
98.9%
Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE10 (#55 C.Hudson)Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
98.9%
Shotgun #6 G.Payne rush right for 9 yards gain to the BCE01 (#17 D.Green; #7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:58 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.7%
Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN13 (#17 D.Green; #13 D.Ballard)Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+17
99.7%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #11 J.Gibson caught at CIN20, for 17 yards to the CIN30 (#32 C.Comella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.7%
Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN32 (#1 A.Palano)Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN34 (#90 K.Sampson)Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass incomplete deep left to #0 I.Johnson thrown to BCE34 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
99.8%
#31 M.Fletcher punt 46 yards to the BCE20 #32 C.Comella return 0 yards to the BCE20 (#5 M.Saboor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Skeete thrown to BCE35 QB hurried by #12 F.MaciorowskiSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #1 J.Skeete caught at BCE24, for 8 yards to the BCE28 (#3 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Green thrown to BCE39 QB hurried by #95 J.HoughSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+1
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short left to #5 J.Wade caught at BCE29, for 1 yard to the BCE29 (#31 S.Coleman) PENALTY BCE Pass Interference declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.8%
Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BCE27 (#4 K.Jones; #56 E.Boykin)Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 0 yards to the BCE27 (#1 A.Palano; #17 D.Green)Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+1
99.8%
Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BCE26 (#36 B.Kahoun; #4 K.Jones)Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
99.9%
#99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 05:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass incomplete short middle to #86 D.Edgehille thrown to BCE29Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BCE17 (#22 J.Thompson), fumble by #10 M.McKenzie recovered by BCE #63 V.Jean-Jumeau at BCE17, End Of Play. #63 V.Jean-Jumeau injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BCE25 (#10 P.Bauer), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass intercepted by #2 M.Cannon at BCE38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 0:560% → 2%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.9%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete short right to #24 B.MacCormack III caught at BCE14, for 12 yards to the BCE30 (#5 M.Saboor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep middle to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at CIN45, for 32 yards to the CIN38 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declined CIN Roughing The Passer 15 yards from CIN38 to CIN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.6%
Shotgun #10 M.McKenzie pass complete deep middle to #8 J.Montague Jr. caught at CIN00, for 23 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:02, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #96 B.LaFollette, LS: #49 C.Crook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
99.8%
Kneel down by #4 J.French IV at BCE40 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.8%
Kneel down by #4 J.French IV at BCE41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:48
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+11.4
TD · Q2 7:48
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE00, for 4 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:48 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+8
TD · Q3 2:01
Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:01 #10 M.McKenzie rush attempt Successful
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com