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MORG

Morgan State 7 at Arizona State 70

ASU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreMORG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:59 · (04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette pass incomplete short middle to #88 H.Vercher thrown to MSU20 broken up by #24 C.Ennis Jr, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+30.8Blowout margin+17.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.7Garbage-time factor+12.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:15: (06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Gillis rush middle for 25 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:15, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis) — ASU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:20: (04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:20 #48 A.Amaya kick attempt good (H: #85 S.Messenger, LS: #46 G.Dorman) — MORG win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:45: (02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU00, for 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:45, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis) — ASU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:28: (13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #21 G.Rigdon caught at ASU45, for 54 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis) — ASU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 9:11: (09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #0 A.Ia caught at MSU15, for 12 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis) — ASU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MORG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:56MORG 4th & 11 at MORG 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40MORG 4th & 15 at MORG 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:32MORG 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14MORG 4th & 9 at MORG 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:37MORG 4th & 8 at MORG 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:58ASU 4th & 2 at MORG 30, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:28ASU 4th & 1 at MORG 13, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:14ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 44, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 29, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:34ASU 4th & 2 at MORG 7, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:53MORG 4th & 8 at MORG 14, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:45MORG 4th & 4 at ASU 45, down 63
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59ASU 4th & 13 at MORG 37, up 63
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MORG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:10ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:20MORG Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:28ASU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:56ASU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:14ASU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:34ASU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MORGDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:041% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#53 A.Favors) 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Towler thrown to MSU32Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
99.1%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short left to #15 J.Perry caught at MSU24, for 4 yards to the MSU24 (#2 L.Rawls; #7 M.Warren)Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Towler thrown to MSU29 QB hurried by #9 J.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.1%
(14:07) #85 S.Messenger punt 37 yards to the ASU39 #9 C.Butler Jr. return 7 yards to the ASU46 (#0 A.Mattocks; #46 G.Dorman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.1%
(13:56) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at ASU43, for 8 yards to the MSU46 (#6 R.Matthews)Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+46
99.1%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:26, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #25 C.Mack thrown to ASU46 QB hurried by #6 R.MatthewsSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.0%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Mack rush middle for 14 yards gain to the MSU39 (#13 A.Harvey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
99.0%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU26, for 29 yards to the MSU10 (#4 J.Mcilwain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Vines-Bright thrown to MSU00Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.0%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at MSU07, for 10 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:10, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.0%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the MSU31 (#97 B.Lono-Wong; #99 C.Fite)Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.0%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Towler thrown to ASU40Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.0%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#53 A.Favors) 5 yards from MSU31 to MSU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
98.9%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU20 (#10 C.Smith)Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
(10:49) #85 S.Messenger punt 43 yards to the ASU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
98.9%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at ASU43, for 14 yards to the MSU49 (#6 R.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
98.9%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 G.Rigdon rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU40 (#20 J.Blake)Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+7
98.9%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 G.Rigdon rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU33 (#20 J.Blake), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
98.9%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MSU41 (#93 D.Jenkins Jr.), fumble by #8 C.Boley recovered by MSU #33 D.Davis at MSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.9%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Barnett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU42 (#55 R.Williams)Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
98.9%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Towler thrown to ASU30Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+8
98.9%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short left to #8 J.Barnett caught at MSU44, for 8 yards to the MSU50 (#1 A.Stamps)Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 1
50
0
98.8%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Barnett rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU50 (#6 A.Wilson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
50
0
98.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #3 R.Harris thrown to MSU35 broken up by #20 J.BlakeSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
50
+7
98.9%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU43 (#20 J.Blake)Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+18
98.8%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at MSU45, for 18 yards to the MSU25 (#20 J.Blake; #24 C.Ennis Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.8%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #3 R.Harris thrown to MSU18 broken up by #20 J.Blake. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #20 J.Blake at MSU18 QB hurried by #1 D.Jones, End Of Play)Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.1%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Gillis rush middle for 25 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:15, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.0%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short left to #4 J.Kennerly Jr. caught at MSU36, for 19 yards to the MSU44 (#22 O.Long), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.0%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short right to #15 J.Perry caught at ASU43, for 13 yards to the ASU43 (#0 R.Bimage Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
98.9%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Spells rush right for 39 yards gain to the ASU04 (#6 A.Wilson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Personal Foul (#8 M.Hughes) 2 yards from ASU04 to ASU02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:20 #48 A.Amaya kick attempt good (H: #85 S.Messenger, LS: #46 G.Dorman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.7%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #3 R.Harris caught at ASU28, for 20 yards to the ASU45 (#7 L.Hill; #33 D.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.7%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at MSU49, for 9 yards to the MSU46 (#0 A.Mattocks)Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+18
98.7%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush middle for 18 yards gain to the MSU28 (#6 R.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.1%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU00, for 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:45, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.0%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short middle to #16 M.Bryant caught at MSU28, for 8 yards to the MSU33 (#23 J.McGrew)Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.0%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU35 (#99 C.Fite; #8 M.Hughes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU39 (#9 J.Thompson; #8 M.Hughes)Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-4
98.9%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MSU35 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Perry thrown to MSU48Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
(14:53) #85 S.Messenger punt 37 yards to the ASU28, out of bounds at ASU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
99.0%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at ASU25, for 12 yards to the ASU40 (#6 R.Matthews), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.1%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at ASU35, for 6 yards to the ASU46 (#6 R.Matthews)Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+54
99.4%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #21 G.Rigdon caught at ASU45, for 54 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.5%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short middle to #12 M.Leatherbury thrown to MSU27 broken up by #90 H.VaeonoSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.5%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU28 (#92 Z.Swanson; #22 O.Long)Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.5%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete deep right to #9 A.Simmons thrown to ASU45 broken up by #22 O.LongSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
99.5%
(12:22) #85 S.Messenger punt 43 yards to the ASU29 PENALTY ASU Holding (#8 M.Hughes) 10 yards from ASU29 to ASU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 3:0399% → 99%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.1%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Brown caught at ASU14, for 11 yards to the ASU30 (#0 A.Mattocks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 G.Rigdon rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU35 (#20 J.Blake)Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+36
99.1%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #3 R.Harris caught at ASU39, for 36 yards to the MSU29 (#20 J.Blake), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.2%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU15, for 16 yards to the MSU13 (#21 D.Hackworth Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.2%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU12 (#18 C.Ose-Afiana)Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
99.4%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #0 A.Ia caught at MSU15, for 12 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
99.6%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge rush left for 11 yards gain to the MSU26 (#13 P.Young-Blackgoat), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.6%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass complete short middle to #8 J.Jeudy caught at MSU28, for 2 yards to the MSU28 (#13 P.Young-Blackgoat)Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
99.6%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short left to #9 A.Simmons thrown to MSU35 QB hurried by #21 K.McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
99.7%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Edge pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Perry thrown to MSU36 broken up by #5 R.PitreSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
99.7%
(07:42) #85 S.Messenger punt 35 yards to the ASU37 fair catch by #9 C.Butler Jr. at ASU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
99.6%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at MSU44, for 25 yards to the MSU38 (#21 D.Hackworth Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.6%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU38 (#11 M.Hastie)Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.6%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 6 yards gain to the MSU32 (#29 D.Searles)Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
99.6%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Gillis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU30 (#93 D.Jenkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+8
99.6%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Mack rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU22 (#4 J.Mcilwain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.7%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #25 C.Mack thrown to MSU02Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.7%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #18 J.Moss caught at MSU21, for 9 yards to the MSU13 (#2 J.Narh; #33 D.Davis)Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
99.7%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #4 O.Miller thrown to MSU00 broken up by #13 A.HarveySimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
99.7%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Mack rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU11 (#52 K.Boyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.7%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU03 (#2 J.Narh)Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+5
99.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (#76 C.Westbrooks) 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
99.7%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Brown rush left for 0 yards to the MSU08 (#4 J.Mcilwain)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU02, for 8 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#6 A.Wilson; #22 O.Long)Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MSU36 (#22 O.Long), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.8%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU37 (#7 M.Warren; #9 J.Thompson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #16 J.Hamilton caught at ASU33, for 2 yards to the ASU39 (#1 D.Jones)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 G.Rigdon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU40 (#93 D.Jenkins Jr.). #93 D.Jenkins Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #9 C.Butler Jr. caught at ASU39, for 4 yards to the ASU44 (#9 D.Moyer)Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+56
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #21 G.Rigdon caught at MSU44, for 56 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:14, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass complete short left to #15 J.Perry caught at MSU29, for 4 yards to the MSU29 (#25 C.Chester)Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Nauden rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU29 (#4 E.Winston)Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass incomplete short left to #15 J.Perry thrown to MSU38 QB hurried by #4 E.WinstonSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
#85 S.Messenger punt 37 yards to the ASU34 fair catch by #18 J.Moss at ASU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass complete short left to #87 J.Giggey caught at ASU38, for 11 yards to the ASU45 (#19 B.Djossou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU46 (#19 B.Djossou)Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass incomplete short right to #22 J.Brown Jr. thrown to ASU47Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+25
99.9%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 25 yards gain to the MSU29 (#38 J.Gamble V), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass complete short right to #7 R.Vines-Bright caught at MSU29, for 1 yard to the MSU28 (#33 D.Davis; #12 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
99.9%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Vines-Bright thrown to MSU30Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+13
99.9%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass complete short right to #24 D.Avit caught at MSU31, for 13 yards to the MSU15 (#1 D.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass incomplete short right to #18 J.Moss thrown to MSU00Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Avit rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU14 (#19 B.Djossou)Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+7
99.9%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass complete short left to #0 A.Ia caught at MSU08, for 7 yards to the MSU07 (#1 D.Jones)Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+6
99.9%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Avit rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU01 (#6 R.Matthews; #19 B.Djossou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Avit rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:01 #26 C.Kieffer kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #39 T.Wigglesworth) PENALTY #26 C.Kieffer kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #39 T.Wigglesworth) PENALTY MSU Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.9%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass incomplete short right to #12 M.Leatherbury thrown to MSU10 QB hurried by #97 B.Lono-WongSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.9%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Nauden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU14 (#21 K.McDonald; #13 P.Young-Blackgoat)Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
99.9%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass incomplete deep right thrown to MSU49 QB hurried by #10 C.SmithSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
99.9%
(06:00) #85 S.Messenger punt 37 yards to the ASU49 fair catch by #18 J.Moss at ASU49 PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#1 D.Jones) 15 yards from ASU49 to MSU36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.9%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU34 (#98 K.Ukiwe; #24 C.Ennis Jr)Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+30
99.9%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 30 yards gain to the MSU04 (#12 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass incomplete short right to #7 R.Vines-Bright thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#12 J.Jackson) 2 yards from MSU04 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Brown Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:34 #26 C.Kieffer kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #39 T.Wigglesworth)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 9:320% → 0%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass complete short left to #45 N.Williams caught at MSU19, for 8 yards to the MSU26 (#12 B.Alefaio-Lilii; #25 C.Chester)Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass complete short right to #14 D.Archie caught at MSU26, for 10 yards to the MSU36 (#12 B.Alefaio-Lilii), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
100.0%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush left for 8 yards gain to the MSU44 (#13 P.Young-Blackgoat; #25 C.Chester)Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#25 C.Chester)Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU49 (#12 B.Alefaio-Lilii), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass complete short right to #87 E.Stevenson caught at MSU48, for 3 yards to the ASU48 (#54 I.Iosefa)Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Hastie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU45 (#55 R.Williams)Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
100.0%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Olanegan pass incomplete short left to #14 D.Archie thrown to ASU39 broken up by #21 K.McDonaldSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
100.0%
(09:54) #85 S.Messenger punt 45 yards to the ASU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:31100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ASU19 (#15 T.Copeland)Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
100.0%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Robinson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ASU26 (#59 K.Chapman; #97 A.Onyekaba)Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
100.0%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Robinson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ASU37 (#11 M.Hastie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
100.0%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette rush left for 7 yards gain to the ASU44 (#12 J.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
100.0%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Robinson rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU49 (#7 L.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Robinson rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU47 (#20 J.Blake)Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+13
100.0%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette pass complete short right to #9 C.Butler Jr. caught at MSU50, for 13 yards to the MSU34 (#98 K.Ukiwe), 1ST DOWN. #57 F.Lokotui injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
100.0%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU33 (#24 C.Ennis Jr)Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
100.0%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Avit rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU29 (#20 J.Blake)Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-8
100.0%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MSU37 (#20 J.Blake), fumble by #2 J.Fette recovered by ASU #52 M.Muti at MSU37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
100.0%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fette pass incomplete short middle to #88 H.Vercher thrown to MSU20 broken up by #24 C.Ennis Jr, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 24END OF HALF
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
100.0%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU39 (#36 S.Manu; #54 I.Iosefa)Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU44 (#12 B.Alefaio-Lilii)Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU48 (#17 J.Shanklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU49 (#17 J.Shanklin; #45 T.Bacon)Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Smith pass complete short left to #82 W.Johns caught at MSU50, for 7 yards to the ASU44 (#31 Z.Theus; #12 B.Alefaio-Lilii)Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU40 (#45 T.Bacon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:20
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:20 #48 A.Amaya kick attempt good (H: #85 S.Messenger, LS: #46 G.Dorman)
-0.4
TD · Q1 2:45
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #3 R.Harris caught at MSU00, for 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:45, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:28
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #21 G.Rigdon caught at ASU45, for 54 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #43 G.Curtis)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com