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NAU

Northern Arizona 7 at Arizona 35

ARIZ
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:40 · (11:47) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass complete short middle to #8 J.Ramirez caught at ARIZ44, for 4 yards to the ARIZ44 (#21 J.Price; #27 K.Harris), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+15.9Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+29.4Garbage-time factor+10.3Blowout margin+15.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: (10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #18 B.Phelps caught at NAU00, for 21 yards to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:41, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:20: (03:24) #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:27: (01:37) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #10 Q.Gossett caught at ARIZ33, for 10 yards to the ARIZ18 (#15 M.Hartzog; #7 C.Kennedy), 1ST DOWN — NAU win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22: (00:28) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #24 Q.Craig caught at ARIZ15, for 10 yards to the ARIZ30 (#16 N.Young-Blackgoat), 1ST DOWN — ARIZ win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:01: (05:08) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson) — ARIZ win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 6:15NAU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:26NAU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:01NAU 4th & 19 at NAU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:29NAU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:43NAU 4th & 14 at NAU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:35ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:32NAU 4th & 7 at NAU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:49ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:39NAU 4th & 21 at NAU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:40NAU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:18ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 34, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:52ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 1, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:40NAU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 48, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:17NAU 4th & 3 at NAU 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:50ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 3:20ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:52ARIZ Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:55NAU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2498% → 98%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #12 T.Spivey thrown to ARIZ38Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 6 yards gain to the ARIZ31 (#8 J.Letua)Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
97.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ37, for 7 yards to the ARIZ38 (#3 J.Fort), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.7%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ42, for 5 yards to the ARIZ43 (#4 M.Beresford; #8 J.Letua)Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
97.6%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at ARIZ49, for 13 yards to the NAU44 (#8 J.Letua; #1 S.Brinkley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.6%
(13:02) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to NAU33. ARIZ is challenging the ruling on the field - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
97.5%
(12:53) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAU40 (#16 N.Young-Blackgoat; #28 M.Te'o)Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+20
97.5%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 20 yards gain to the NAU20 (#5 D.Freeman; #3 J.Fort), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.5%
(12:04) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #12 T.Spivey caught at NAU00, for 20 yards to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:32, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 5:103% → 3%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
(11:32) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 0 yards to the NAU35 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.3%
(10:52) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #3 J.Stout caught at NAU41, for 11 yards to the NAU46 (#6 T.Brown; #48 C.Blomstrom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.3%
(10:23) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #3 J.Stout caught at NAU43, for 1 yard loss to the NAU45 (#12 D.Bootle II; #35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-2
97.2%
(09:56) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush left for 2 yards loss to the NAU43 (#48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+17
97.2%
(09:08) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short middle to #3 J.Stout caught at ARIZ40, for 17 yards to the ARIZ40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
97.0%
(08:21) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington rush left for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ39 (#6 T.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
96.9%
(07:51) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ38 (#12 D.Bootle II; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-2
96.8%
(07:07) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ40 (#7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
96.8%
(06:21) #37 T.Manship punt 40 yards to the ARIZ00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:3897% → 97%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
96.8%
(06:14) #24 Q.Craig rush left for 13 yards gain to the ARIZ33 (#7 B.Singleton; #3 J.Fort), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
96.8%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARIZ39, for 11 yards to the ARIZ44 (#4 M.Beresford; #1 S.Brinkley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
96.8%
(05:10) #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #24 Q.Craig caught at ARIZ45, for 9 yards to the NAU47 (#12 A.Gibson)Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
96.7%
(04:23) #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAU41 (#90 J.Pigram; #98 B.Kaczmarek), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
96.7%
(03:44) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at NAU36, for 31 yards to the NAU10 fumbled by #5 G.Richardson at NAU18 forced by #3 J.Fort recovered by NAU #3 J.Fort at NAU10 #3 J.Fort return 0 yards to the NAU10 (#24 Q.Craig)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:574% → 4%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.5%
(03:30) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 0 yards to the NAU10 (#3 T.Smith; #7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+12
96.3%
(03:02) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #14 H.Daugherty caught at NAU10, for 12 yards to the NAU22 (#35 Q.Olson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush left for 4 yards gain to the NAU26 (#38 K.Moorer Jr.; #15 M.Hartzog)Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
96.0%
(01:19) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NAU25 (#95 L.Palu; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+24
96.1%
(00:33) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete deep left to #4 M.Currie caught at NAU49, for 24 yards to the NAU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
95.7%
(00:04) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #10 Q.Gossett caught at NAU44, for 4 yards loss to the NAU45 (#15 M.Hartzog)Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+7
95.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #4 M.Currie caught at NAU49, for 7 yards to the ARIZ48 (#6 T.Brown; #12 D.Bootle II)Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+5
95.6%
(14:13) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #3 J.Stout caught at ARIZ49, for 5 yards to the ARIZ43 (#12 D.Bootle II; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
95.6%
(13:30) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short right to #10 Q.Gossett thrown to ARIZ43 QB hurried by #42 D.Lolesio, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:4396% → 97%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
95.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ48 (#22 B.Torrie) PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Motion (#84 R.Gallagher III) 5 yards from ARIZ43 to ARIZ38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+8
95.7%
(13:03) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ43, for 8 yards to the ARIZ46 (#5 D.Freeman)Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+22
95.8%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARIZ49, for 22 yards to the NAU32 (#7 B.Singleton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
95.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at NAU35, for 5 yards to the NAU27 (#7 B.Singleton; #8 J.Letua)Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
95.7%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAU23 (#55 J.Peterson)Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
95.5%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAU21 (#28 M.Te'o), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.8%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #18 B.Phelps caught at NAU00, for 21 yards to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:41, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:324% → 4%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
96.5%
(10:41) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington sacked for loss of 15 yards to the NAU10 (#7 C.Kennedy)Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+5
96.5%
(09:51) PENALTY NAU Delay Of Game (#6 T.Pennington) 5 yards from NAU10 to NAU05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+4
96.6%
(09:36) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington rush left for 4 yards gain to the NAU09 (#95 L.Palu)Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+7
96.5%
(08:58) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #10 Q.Gossett caught at NAU10, for 7 yards to the NAU16 (#15 M.Hartzog; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
96.4%
(08:13) #37 T.Manship punt 40 yards to the ARIZ44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:3396% → 99%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
96.4%
(07:58) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ45 (#28 M.Te'o)Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
96.4%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at ARIZ50, for 6 yards to the NAU49 (#6 S.Wilson)Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
96.2%
(06:40) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at NAU45, for 5 yards to the NAU44 (#4 M.Beresford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
96.3%
(05:55) Shotgun #12 T.Spivey rush right for 7 yards gain to the NAU37 (#3 J.Fort; #1 S.Brinkley)Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+11
96.2%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #84 R.Gallagher III caught at NAU39, for 11 yards to the NAU26 (#1 S.Brinkley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
96.2%
(04:41) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #3 K.Reescano caught at NAU27, for 12 yards to the NAU14 (#6 S.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
96.2%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAU12 (#1 S.Brinkley; #16 N.Young-Blackgoat)Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
96.2%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush left for 11 yards gain to the NAU01 (#8 J.Letua), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
(03:24) #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.1%
(03:20) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NAU18 (#0 D.Fifita)Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
98.2%
(02:40) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to #4 M.Currie thrown to NAU40 broken up by #13 C.Chapa PENALTY NAU Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+21
98.2%
(02:33) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete deep left to #89 J.Purdy caught at NAU39, for 21 yards to the NAU39 (#13 C.Chapa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #10 Q.Gossett thrown to NAU45 QB hurried by #99 M.PeseSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
(01:54) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to #4 M.Currie thrown to ARIZ30Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.1%
(01:47) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short left to #3 J.Stout caught at NAU44, for 33 yards to the ARIZ28 lateral to #1 D.Haskin for 29 yards gain to the ARIZ28 (#6 T.Brown; #8 J.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
97.6%
(01:37) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #10 Q.Gossett caught at ARIZ33, for 10 yards to the ARIZ18 (#15 M.Hartzog; #7 C.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
97.6%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ16 (#6 T.Brown; #38 K.Moorer Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
97.6%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #10 Q.Gossett thrown to ARIZ20 broken up by #6 T.BrownSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
97.8%
(00:39) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #89 J.Purdy thrown to ARIZ00 broken up by #13 C.ChapaSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
97.9%
(00:29) #99 F.Orduno Jr. field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 T.Manship, LS: #45 A.Zubey), clock 00:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.6%
(00:28) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #24 Q.Craig caught at ARIZ15, for 10 yards to the ARIZ30 (#16 N.Young-Blackgoat), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.6%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 11 yards gain to the ARIZ41, out of bounds at ARIZ41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #24 Q.Craig thrown to ARIZ45Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
98.6%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #14 C.Rusk caught at NAU48, for 13 yards to the NAU46, out of bounds at NAU46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:172% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short middle to #14 H.Daugherty caught at NAU26, for 6 yards to the NAU31 (#99 M.Pese) PENALTY NAU Holding (#74 K.Carter) 10 yards from NAU25 to NAU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-2
98.2%
(14:36) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short right to #10 Q.Gossett caught at NAU12, for 2 yards loss to the NAU13 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #17 L.Molette III)Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
98.2%
(13:50) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Stout thrown to NAU25 broken up by #96 Z.SiulepaSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
98.2%
(13:45) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NAU21 (#0 D.Fifita; #35 Q.Olson)Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.2%
(12:56) #37 T.Manship punt 53 yards to the ARIZ26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0099% → 98%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.5%
(12:41) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARIZ29 (#8 J.Letua)Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-7
98.5%
(12:19) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ22 (#96 J.Baer)Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+7
98.4%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARIZ21, for 7 yards to the ARIZ29 (#3 J.Fort)Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
98.4%
(10:42) #37 C.Ridley punt 50 yards to the NAU21 fair catch by #3 J.Stout at NAU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.3%
(10:35) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short middle to #89 J.Purdy thrown to NAU35Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
98.3%
(10:31) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #10 Q.Gossett thrown to NAU28 broken up by #48 C.BlomstromSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.4%
(10:26) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete short left to #3 J.Stout caught at NAU18, for 3 yards to the NAU24 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
98.4%
(09:41) #37 T.Manship punt 39 yards to the ARIZ37, out of bounds at ARIZ37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.6%
(09:31) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARIZ42 (#96 J.Baer)Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
98.6%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to ARIZ49Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
98.6%
(09:04) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #12 T.Spivey thrown to NAU47 QB hurried by #8 J.LetuaSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
98.5%
(08:54) #37 C.Ridley punt 45 yards to the NAU13 fair catch by #3 J.Stout at NAU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
98.4%
(08:48) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington sacked for loss of 1 yard to the NAU12 (#7 C.Kennedy, #11 J.Mann)Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
98.5%
(08:07) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington rush middle for 0 yards to the NAU12 (#41 J.Savaiinaea; #38 K.Moorer Jr.). #71 C.Jury injured on the playSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-8
98.5%
(07:47) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NAU04 (#38 K.Moorer Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 19
OWN 4
+2
98.5%
(06:48) PENALTY NAU Delay Of Game (#39 N.Abela) 2 yards from NAU04 to NAU02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 21
OWN 2
0
98.5%
(06:46) #39 N.Abela punt 48 yards to the NAU50 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:2799% → 100%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
50
+17
98.6%
(06:40) Shotgun #5 G.Richardson rush left for 17 yards gain to the NAU33 (#1 S.Brinkley; #5 D.Freeman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.6%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at NAU29, for 9 yards to the NAU24 (#1 S.Brinkley; #5 D.Freeman)Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+10
98.6%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at NAU28, for 10 yards to the NAU14 (#1 S.Brinkley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
(05:08) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
99.8%
(05:00) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass complete deep middle to #87 N.Isaac caught at NAU47, for 37 yards to the ARIZ38 (#13 C.Chapa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 0 yards to the ARIZ38 fumbled by #10 Q.Gossett at ARIZ40 forced by #48 C.Blomstrom recovered by NAU #4 M.Currie at ARIZ38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.8%
(04:07) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ31 (#4 M.Tagoa'i; #51 K.Lafitaga)Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #10 Q.Gossett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ30 (#48 C.Blomstrom; #11 J.Mann)Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
99.8%
(02:45) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass incomplete short left to #14 H.Daugherty thrown to ARIZ27, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
(02:40) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 8 yards gain to the ARIZ38 (#3 J.Fort), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
(02:04) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARIZ39 (#96 J.Baer; #8 J.Letua)Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
99.8%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #12 T.Spivey thrown to NAU45Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (#63 A.Doost) 5 yards from ARIZ39 to ARIZ34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
99.9%
(01:23) #37 C.Ridley punt 49 yards to the NAU17 fair catch by #3 J.Stout at NAU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.9%
(01:17) Shotgun #6 T.Pennington pass intercepted by #35 Q.Olson at NAU32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
(01:10) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAU29 (#46 M.Valoaga)Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+21
99.9%
(00:25) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #5 G.Richardson caught at NAU24, for 21 yards to the NAU08 (#6 S.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Hunter thrown to NAU00Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
(14:53) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAU07 (#6 S.Wilson)Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.9%
(14:14) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #3 K.Reescano caught at NAU03, for 6 yards to the NAU01 (#8 J.Letua)Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
(13:56) #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:52 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
PENALTY NAU Delay Of Game (#2 D.Dixon) 5 yards from NAU47 to NAU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-3
99.9%
(13:44) Shotgun #32 J.Wilson rush right for 3 yards loss to the NAU39 (#51 K.Lafitaga)Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
(13:11) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon rush right for 4 yards gain to the NAU43 (#48 C.Blomstrom)Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
(12:36) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass complete short right to #1 D.Haskin caught at NAU50, for 9 yards to the ARIZ48 (#23 G.Hunter; #21 J.Price)Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
(11:47) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass complete short middle to #8 J.Ramirez caught at ARIZ44, for 4 yards to the ARIZ44 (#21 J.Price; #27 K.Harris), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.9%
(11:40) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ39 (#55 J.Peterson)Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-36
99.9%
(11:10) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass intercepted by #16 N.Young-Blackgoat at ARIZ36 #16 N.Young-Blackgoat return 36 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:55 #99 F.Orduno Jr. kick attempt good (H: #37 T.Manship, LS: #45 A.Zubey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
(10:55) Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ32 (#27 N.Norwood)Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #20 C.Smith thrown to ARIZ31Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
(10:22) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete short left to #2 R.Mosley caught at ARIZ37, for 8 yards to the ARIZ40 (#10 N.Eason II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to #0 W.Yarbrough thrown to NAU40 PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#77 J.Griffin) 10 yards from ARIZ40 to ARIZ30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
(09:48) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete short right to #20 C.Smith caught at ARIZ35, for 9 yards to the ARIZ39 (#12 A.Gibson; #28 M.Te'o)Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete short left to #2 R.Mosley caught at ARIZ47, for 10 yards to the ARIZ49 (#10 N.Eason II)Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
99.9%
(08:43) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 18 yards gain to the NAU33 (#7 B.Singleton) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (#55 N.Hale) 10 yards from ARIZ49 to ARIZ39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+17
99.9%
(08:12) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete short middle to #17 I.Mizell caught at NAU46, for 17 yards to the NAU44 (#18 M.Cooks; #27 N.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 S.Anderson rush right for 8 yards gain to the NAU36 (#12 A.Gibson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+19
99.9%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 19 yards gain to the NAU17 fumbled by #44 A.Roberts at NAU17 forced by #18 M.Cooks recovered by NAU #18 M.Cooks at NAU17 #18 M.Cooks return 17 yards to the NAU34 (#56 S.Tohi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
(06:54) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass complete short left to #83 B.Gardner caught at NAU39, for 6 yards to the NAU40 (#36 D.Hanger; #23 G.Hunter)Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
(06:15) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass complete short left to #83 B.Gardner caught at NAU37, for 1 yard to the NAU41 (#36 D.Hanger; #23 G.Hunter)Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(05:38) Shotgun #2 D.Dixon pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Ramirez thrown to ARIZ20 QB hurried by #55 L.Su'aSimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(05:25) #37 T.Manship punt 35 yards to the ARIZ24 fair catch by #20 C.Smith at ARIZ24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF HALF
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:37100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.9%
(05:16) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson rush left for 11 yards gain to the ARIZ35 (#18 M.Cooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARIZ42 (#21 J.Collins)Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
(03:58) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ44 (#98 B.Kaczmarek)Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
100.0%
(03:26) Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NAU47 (#24 I.Sensabaugh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
100.0%
(02:44) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #20 C.Smith thrown to NAU45Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
100.0%
(02:41) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush right for 12 yards gain to the NAU35 (#24 I.Sensabaugh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 0 yards to the NAU35 (#14 D.Rausch; #98 B.Kaczmarek)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
100.0%
(01:57) #0 W.Yarbrough rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAU34 (#23 D.Moutra Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
100.0%
(01:19) Shotgun #7 S.Anderson pass complete short right to #2 R.Mosley caught at NAU26, for 8 yards to the NAU26 (#24 I.Sensabaugh). #14 D.Rausch injured on the playSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
100.0%
(00:54) Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAU25 (#33 J.Hopphaus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
100.0%
(00:30) Shotgun #0 W.Yarbrough rush middle for 0 yards to the NAU25 (#24 I.Sensabaugh; #27 N.Norwood) PENALTY NAU Holding (#55 J.Peterson) 10 yards from NAU25 to NAU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:20
(03:24) #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
+2.3
TD · Q2 10:41
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #18 B.Phelps caught at NAU00, for 21 yards to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:41, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
+1.3
TD · Q3 5:01
(05:08) Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #43 D.Nicolson)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com