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UNC

North Carolina 15 at TCU 10

TCU
2026 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026 · Aviva Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDSAFETYFGEnd of GameFG+0.3TCU 66.6%(07:24) #34 K.Lemmermann field goalattempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #97E.Black, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock07:20AWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q1 7:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:20 · (07:24) #34 K.Lemmermann field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 07:20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:00: (04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:00 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #54 A.Bowers) — TCU win probability +3.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q2 1:49: (01:54) No Huddle TCU rush middle for 31 yards loss to the TCU00, End Of Play. North Carolina SAFETY, clock 01:49 PENALTY TCU Illegal Bat (#48 J.Chance) -1 yard from TCU00 to TCU20 — UNC win probability +4.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:04: (10:04) #92 A.Burrell field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), clock 10:04 — TCU win probability +2.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55: Timeout TCU, clock 01:55 — TCU win probability +19.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38: (01:54) #0 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU49 (#35 T.Johnson) — UNC win probability +19.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:07UNC 4th & 2 at TCU 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:20TCU 4th & 6 at UNC 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24UNC 4th & 7 at TCU 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16TCU 4th & 10 at UNC 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:43UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:05TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−2.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:30UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:04UNC 4th & 3 at TCU 10, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−12.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22TCU 4th & 17 at TCU 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−5.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56TCU 4th & 1 at UNC 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−6.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−23.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:58UNC 4th & 14 at TCU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−5.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−15.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:46TCU 4th & 2 at UNC 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−3.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:05TCU 4th & 2 at UNC 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−15.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:00TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:2733% → 34%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
67.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #45 J.Thurman caught at UNC23, for 20 yards to the UNC45 (#4 G.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.0%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC48 (#11 M.Short), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+35
66.9%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete deep middle to #45 J.Thurman caught at TCU30, for 35 yards to the TCU17 (#7 J.Simms), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
66.7%
(13:00) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU14 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
66.5%
(12:20) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #4 M.Humphrey thrown to TCU00 broken up by #1 V.GloverSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
66.6%
(12:16) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at TCU07, for 9 yards to the TCU05 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
66.3%
(11:35) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU01 (#97 P.Oyewale; #11 M.Short)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
66.1%
(10:52) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU02 (#3 M.Carroll; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.2%
(10:10) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #45 J.Thurman thrown to TCU00Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
66.1%
(10:07) #92 A.Burrell field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), clock 10:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3966% → 67%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.2%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU30 (#1 G.Smith III)Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
66.1%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU29, for 5 yards to the TCU35 (#11 J.Harvey; #15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+48
65.8%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 48 yards gain to the UNC17 (#18 J.Patterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
66.7%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNC15 (#11 J.Harvey; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
66.7%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at UNC17, for 2 yards to the UNC13 (#11 J.Harvey; #6 T.Miller)Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
66.3%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to UNC01 QB hurried by #11 J.HarveySimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
66.6%
(07:24) #34 K.Lemmermann field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 07:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3434% → 34%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Shipp thrown to UNC35Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.0%
(07:14) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the UNC32 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
66.0%
(06:31) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UNC23 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+33
66.5%
(05:49) #92 A.Burrell punt 35 yards to the TCU42 #18 E.Small return 33 yards to the UNC25 (#54 T.Hickman-Collins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2667% → 71%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
67.2%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at UNC18, for 13 yards to the UNC12 (#10 P.Seelmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
67.2%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC07 (#2 K.Cost)Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
67.1%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNC02 (#1 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.7%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:00 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #54 A.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4731% → 37%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
69.4%
(03:59) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at UNC45, for 21 yards to the TCU49 (#1 V.Glover), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
64.4%
(03:36) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at TCU30, for 19 yards to the TCU30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.0%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #45 J.Thurman thrown to TCU33Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
64.0%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TCU33 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+6
64.4%
(02:14) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU27 (#3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+18
64.4%
(01:35) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at TCU16, for 18 yards to the TCU09 (#6 K.Jackson; #15 D.Hidrogo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
62.9%
(01:05) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 9 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04 #92 A.Burrell kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:2966% → 66%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
65.6%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep middle to #88 K.Pimpton caught at TCU45, for 40 yards to the UNC35 (#10 P.Seelmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
67.3%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Everhart rush right for 2 yards loss to the UNC37 (#90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+3
66.8%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC34 (#11 J.Harvey)Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
66.6%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 13 yards gain (8) to the UNC21 (#10 P.Seelmann), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Holding (#88 K.Pimpton) 10 yards from UNC26 to UNC36Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+1
66.2%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at UNC38, for 1 yard to the UNC35 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
65.7%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to UNC25 broken up by #1 G.Smith III, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2636% → 35%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.2%
(13:14) #7 B.Hall rush right for 0 yards to the UNC35 (#11 M.Short)Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
64.4%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC44, for 13 yards to the UNC48 (#1 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
62.8%
(12:13) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush left for 4 yards gain to the TCU48 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
62.4%
(11:30) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush right for 20 yards gain to the TCU28 (#1 V.Glover) PENALTY UNC Illegal Block in Back (#0 D.June) 10 yards from TCU48 to UNC42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
63.6%
(11:01) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #0 D.June thrown to UNC38Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
64.1%
(10:56) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 C.Sadler thrown to UNC50Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+5
64.9%
(10:51) #92 A.Burrell punt 46 yards to the TCU12 #18 E.Small return 5 yards to the TCU17 (#30 J.Hart), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:3166% → 64%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
65.6%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU20 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
65.6%
(09:57) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU23, for 3 yards to the TCU23 (#8 J.Agumadu), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+7
64.9%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at TCU26, for 7 yards to the TCU30 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
66.0%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #6 J.Scott caught at TCU33, for 3 yards to the TCU33 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
66.1%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 11 yards gain to the TCU44 (#8 J.Agumadu), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.1%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete deep right to #18 E.Small thrown to UNC27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
66.5%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 6 yards gain to the TCU50, out of bounds at TCU50 PENALTY TCU Holding (#56 B.Taylor-Whitfield) 10 yards from TCU44 to TCU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 20
OWN 34
0
65.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #81 K.Ashley thrown to TCU30Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
64.3%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Denman thrown to TCU33 QB hurried by #90 X.LewisSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
63.9%
(07:07) #48 J.Chance punt 38 yards to the UNC28 fair catch by #26 J.Troupe at UNC28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2238% → 38%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
62.0%
(07:04) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UNC39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
60.7%
(06:24) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC41 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
60.2%
(05:48) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to TCU40 broken up by #4 G.JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
61.1%
(05:42) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #45 J.Thurman thrown to TCU45Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
62.5%
(05:39) #92 A.Burrell punt 44 yards to the TCU15 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10SF
9 plays · -15 yds · 3:3565% → 57%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
64.9%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU19 (#11 J.Harvey)Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
64.9%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU24 (#0 I.Johnson; #15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
64.4%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU30 (#2 K.Cost), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
65.3%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#50 W.Van Hoy) 5 yards from TCU30 to TCU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+10
64.7%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 10 yards gain to the TCU35 (#15 D.McDonald; #5 D.Hoilette)Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-4
65.9%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards loss to the TCU31 (#90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
62.2%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Hayes thrown to TCU45Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-31
57.3%
(01:54) No Huddle TCU rush middle for 31 yards loss to the TCU00, End Of Play. North Carolina SAFETY, clock 01:49 PENALTY TCU Illegal Bat (#48 J.Chance) -1 yard from TCU00 to TCU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4743% → 45%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
57.5%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at UNC36, for 7 yards to the UNC36 (#7 J.Simms)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
55.9%
(01:10) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Humphrey thrown to TCU47Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
57.0%
(01:05) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNC45 (#22 J.Lester; #11 M.Short), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
55.3%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at TCU49, for 10 yards to the TCU45 fumbled by #2 T.Kekahuna at TCU45 forced by #3 M.Carroll recovered by TCU #3 M.Carroll at TCU45, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:2461% → 57%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.3%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #17 D.Jones thrown to UNC47Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
57.5%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU43, for 6 yards to the UNC49 (#1 G.Smith III; #15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
59.2%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Scott thrown to UNC48Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+5
57.3%
(00:19) #48 J.Chance punt 40 yards to the UNC09 PENALTY UNC Running Into The Kicker (#11 J.Harvey) 5 yards from UNC49 to UNC44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 0
OPP 44
+10
57.4%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #88 K.Pimpton caught at UNC29, for 15 yards to the UNC29, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Holding (#59 J.Buchanon) 10 yards from UNC44 to TCU46. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1559% → 50%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 0 yards to the TCU25 (#97 T.Giddens)Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
58.5%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU25, for 14 yards to the TCU39 (#15 D.McDonald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
60.0%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU43 (#0 I.Johnson)Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
61.3%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 4 yards gain to the TCU47 (#7 P.Waters), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
52.6%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNC46 (#1 G.Smith III; #7 P.Waters), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#26 J.Payne) 15 yards from UNC46 to TCU39Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
51.2%
(12:18) No Huddle #2 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU40 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 24
OWN 40
-9
50.0%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 9 yards to the TCU31 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude), fumble by #1 J.Craig recovered by UNC #11 J.Harvey at TCU31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2057% → 54%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
43.4%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #45 J.Thurman caught at TCU31, for 14 yards to the TCU17 (#18 K.McFadden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
42.8%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU10 (#18 K.McFadden)Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
42.6%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush right for 0 yards to the TCU10 (#7 J.Simms)Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
43.6%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short right to #45 J.Thurman thrown to TCU00 broken up by #4 G.JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
45.7%
(10:04) #92 A.Burrell field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), clock 10:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:3349% → 45%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.8%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at TCU30, for 7 yards to the TCU32 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
50.8%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU34 (#15 D.McDonald; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
49.2%
(09:06) No Huddle #2 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU35 (#91 L.Jackson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
48.4%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TCU31 (#90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+17
47.2%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at TCU48, for 17 yards to the TCU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
50.8%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #15 T.Shelton thrown to UNC45 broken up by #18 J.PattersonSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
50.3%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU49 (#90 X.Lewis; #94 D.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-8
47.6%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TCU41 (#90 X.Lewis) PENALTY TCU Intentional Grounding (#1 J.Craig)Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
44.6%
(06:22) #48 J.Chance punt 49 yards to the UNC10 fair catch by #2 T.Kekahuna at UNC10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3356% → 56%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
44.5%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UNC20 (#3 M.Carroll; #18 K.McFadden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
44.0%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC24 fumbled by #7 B.Hall at UNC23 forced by #18 K.McFadden recovered by TCU #3 M.Carroll at UNC24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3853% → 45%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.7%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short middle to #18 E.Small thrown to UNC08 broken up by #16 C.BrysonSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
52.6%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC22 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+8
49.9%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at UNC21, for 8 yards to the UNC14 (#2 K.Cost), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
51.8%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNC09 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
51.5%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Scott thrown to UNC00Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
47.3%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at UNC05, for 4 yards to the UNC05 (#16 C.Bryson)Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-1
44.8%
(02:55) No Huddle #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC06 (#0 I.Johnson; #90 X.Lewis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18MISSED FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:5059% → 63%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
41.0%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC08 (#3 M.Carroll; #14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+11
41.1%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #4 M.Humphrey caught at UNC18, for 11 yards to the UNC19 (#7 J.Simms; #11 M.Short), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Face Mask (#1 V.Glover) 15 yards from UNC19 to UNC34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
36.6%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush middle for 9 yards loss to the UNC25, End Of Play PENALTY TCU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#97 P.Oyewale) 15 yards from UNC25 to UNC40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.6%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #84 S.Easter thrown to TCU46Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
35.5%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush right for 7 yards gain to the UNC47 (#11 M.Short; #35 T.Johnson)Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+9
34.2%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #84 S.Easter caught at UNC49, for 9 yards to the TCU44 (#1 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
32.6%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at TCU37, for 12 yards to the TCU32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 11
OPP 32
+7
30.9%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #14 C.Sadler caught at TCU28, for 7 yards to the TCU25 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
29.8%
(14:16) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU20 (#2 J.Johnson; #22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
28.8%
(13:35) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TCU26 (#14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+2
30.9%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #7 B.Hall caught at TCU29, for 2 yards to the TCU24 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 14
OPP 24
0
32.3%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.Shipp thrown to TCU00Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
36.7%
(11:58) #92 A.Burrell field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), clock 11:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 66 yds · 7:4341% → 32%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
40.5%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU25 (#1 G.Smith III)Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
40.0%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU19, for 0 yards to the TCU25 (#8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+12
38.0%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU37, for 12 yards to the TCU37 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
41.4%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #80 J.Hayes caught at UNC46, for 23 yards to the UNC40 (#16 C.Bryson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
45.5%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC41 fumbled by #1 J.Craig at UNC42 recovered by TCU #1 J.Craig at UNC41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
44.4%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #18 E.Small caught at UNC38, for 6 yards to the UNC35 (#2 K.Cost)Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
45.4%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC32 (#1 G.Smith III), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+4
39.5%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at UNC28, for 4 yards to the UNC28 (#7 P.Waters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
45.2%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 0 yards to the UNC28 (#15 D.McDonald; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
42.3%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC24 (#8 J.Agumadu; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+6
38.2%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 6 yards gain to the UNC18 (#5 D.Hoilette; #15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
41.0%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC17 (#90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
38.3%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at UNC17, for 0 yards to the UNC17 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+7
34.8%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 7 yards gain to the UNC10 (#0 I.Johnson; #8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 2
OPP 10
0
31.6%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Scott thrown to UNC00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20END OF GAME
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:5579% → 97%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
21.4%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC15 (#7 J.Simms; #3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+8
17.7%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC23 (#22 J.Lester; #3 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
14.9%
PENALTY UNC Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNC23 to UNC18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
14.1%
(02:32) Shotgun #0 D.June rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC21 (#7 J.Simms)Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+25
14.3%
(02:25) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #45 J.Thurman caught at UNC22, for 25 yards to the UNC46 (#1 V.Glover; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
5.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC47 (#3 M.Carroll; #91 F.Guidry)Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
4.7%
(01:54) #0 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU49 (#35 T.Johnson)Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
3.0%
(01:10) #0 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU45 (#14 J.Schobel). The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
3.3%
PENALTY TCU Offside (#95 M.Deal) 5 yards from TCU45 to TCU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38
(01:54) #0 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU49 (#35 T.Johnson)
-19.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55
Timeout TCU, clock 01:55
+19.1
SAFETY · Q2 1:49
(01:54) No Huddle TCU rush middle for 31 yards loss to the TCU00, End Of Play. North Carolina SAFETY, clock 01:49 PENALTY TCU Illegal Bat (#48 J.Chance) -1 yard from TCU00 to TCU20
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com