Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
ALA30
TENN23
ALA by 7 · market ALA by 8.5
Win chance
ALA66%
ALA 66%TENN 34%
Projected total
52pts
Market total 51.75
Explore the range of outcomes
61%
chance Alabama wins by 3 or more
39% Alabama wins by 2 or fewer, or loses
← TENN winsALA wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
- 50% of outcomes
- TENN by 4 to ALA by 16
- 80% of outcomes
- TENN by 17 to ALA by 27
- 90% of outcomes
- TENN by 22 to ALA by 34
- Median
- ALA by 8
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 66% | 81% | 36% |
| Tennessee | 10% | 22% | 4% |
| Also riding on it | Now | ALA wins (66%)If Alabama wins (66%) | TENN wins (34%)If Tennessee wins (34%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 31% | 30% | 33% |
| Texas Tech | 67% | 66% | 68% |
| Wake Forest | 30% | 29% | 32% |
and 4 more teams whose odds move a little
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds