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TENN

Tennessee 24 at Arkansas 17

ARK
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:09 · (05:20) #37 G.Rush punt 38 yards to the TEN19 #6 Q.Moss return 18 yards to the TEN37 (#52 D.Whitten), out of bounds PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEN37 to TEN42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior−31.4Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:04: (11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:04 #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston) PENALTY TEN Offside declined — ARK win probability +15.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:28: (04:31) #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #83 J.Platt caught at TEN00, for 4 yards to the TEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston) — ARK win probability +19.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:52: (12:55) #7 D.Brame rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52 #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +28.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:20: (07:25) #30 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 55 yards GOOD (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston), clock 07:20 — ARK win probability +14.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:57: (02:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +37.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 8:47TENN 4th & 3 at ARK 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:48TENN 4th & 11 at ARK 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:59TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:29TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35TENN 4th & 6 at ARK 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−4.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:20ARK 4th & 12 at TENN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−2.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:08ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−2.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:36ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 10:03TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:04ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:28ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:52TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:57TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:2615% → 17%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
15.4%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #3 C.Brown caught at ARK26, for 21 yards to the ARK46 (#1 T.Metcalf), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
15.7%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEN48 (#0 A.Campbell)Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+29
16.1%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 M.Harrison caught at TEN31, for 29 yards to the TEN19 (#6 Q.Moss), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
16.4%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TEN20 (#0 A.Campbell; #2 X.Gilliam)Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-13
16.8%
(12:26) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson sacked for loss of 13 yards to the TEN33 (#2 X.Gilliam), fumble by #7 K.Jackson recovered by TEN #2 X.Gilliam at TEN33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2283% → 82%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
16.6%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #7 D.Brame caught at TEN32, for 15 yards to the TEN48 (#44 B.Bogle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
16.7%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEN50 (#91 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
50
+10
16.9%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Matthews rush right for 10 yards gain to the ARK40, out of bounds at ARK40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
17.0%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK36 (#20 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-1
17.3%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARK37 (#24 M.Mitchell; #91 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
17.7%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short middle to #7 D.Brame caught at ARK40, for 4 yards to the ARK33 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
18.1%
(08:51) #28 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady), clock 08:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3019% → 20%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
18.6%
(08:47) #0 B.Russell rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARK36 (#33 J.Norman; #13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+15
19.0%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #8 D.Faupel thrown to TEN30, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TEN Pass Interference (#14 K.Lee) 15 yards from ARK36 to TEN49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.3%
(08:10) Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush right for 0 yards to the TEN49 (#0 A.Campbell)Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
19.6%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #0 B.Russell caught at TEN47, for 3 yards to the TEN46 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
20.0%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 J.Hawkins caught at TEN40, for 6 yards to the TEN40 (#14 K.Lee) PENALTY ARK Chop Block (#27 C.Settles) 15 yards from TEN46 to ARK39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+5
19.7%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ARK49 (#1 T.Metcalf; #7 A.Carter) PENALTY ARK Illegal Shift 5 yards from ARK39 to ARK34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 27
OWN 34
+9
19.8%
(06:01) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #27 C.Settles caught at ARK35, for 9 yards to the ARK43 (#7 A.Carter)Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+18
20.2%
(05:20) #37 G.Rush punt 38 yards to the TEN19 #6 Q.Moss return 18 yards to the TEN37 (#52 D.Whitten), out of bounds PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEN37 to TEN42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1480% → 78%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
19.9%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TEN47 (#2 S.Lewis; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
20.0%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at ARK48, for 6 yards to the ARK47, out of bounds at ARK47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
20.0%
(04:19) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARK45 (#91 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
20.2%
PENALTY TEN False Start (#3 R.Jackson) 5 yards from ARK45 to ARK50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 13
50
0
20.8%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short right to #18 D.Bishop thrown to TEN44Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 13
50
+2
21.1%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK48, for 2 yards to the ARK48, out of bounds at ARK48Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
21.8%
(02:54) #98 J.Ross punt 40 yards to the ARK08 fair catch by #5 S.Smith at ARK08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5522% → 23%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
21.9%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK13 (#1 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+7
22.4%
(02:15) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK20, for 7 yards to the ARK20 (#4 T.Redmond), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
22.8%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARK22 (#22 J.Telander)Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
23.1%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK30, for 15 yards to the ARK37 (#7 A.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
24.0%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush right for 4 yards loss to the ARK33 (#10 D.Lane)Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
23.5%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #4 I.Cisse thrown to ARK40Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
23.5%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to ARK25 broken up by #2 X.GilliamSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
23.3%
(14:52) #37 G.Rush punt 38 yards to the TEN29 fair catch by #6 Q.Moss at TEN29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2977% → 81%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
23.2%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #17 D.Morris caught at TEN28, for 9 yards to the TEN38 (#20 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
22.5%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short left to #14 B.Staley thrown to TEN46 broken up by #0 H.OsborneSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
22.7%
(14:09) Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEN40 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
23.2%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEN44 (#0 H.Osborne; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+12
23.4%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #17 D.Morris caught at TEN46, for 12 yards to the ARK44 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
23.3%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ARK32 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
23.4%
(11:46) Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #82 T.Thomas caught at ARK34, for 3 yards to the ARK29 (#2 S.Lewis; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+22
23.6%
(11:05) Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK30, for 22 yards to the ARK07 (#25 J.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
23.9%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK05 (#25 J.Smith; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.1%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #82 T.Thomas caught at ARK05, for 5 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1822% → 21%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
21.6%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK35, for 6 yards to the ARK41 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-12
22.8%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush middle for 12 yards loss to the ARK29 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
21.2%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Faupel thrown to ARK35 QB hurried by #2 X.GilliamSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
21.0%
(08:40) #37 G.Rush punt 34 yards to the TEN37 fair catch by #6 Q.Moss at TEN37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2878% → 79%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
21.9%
(08:35) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEN43 (#13 C.Stoutmire)Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
20.4%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Brame thrown to TEN42 QB hurried by #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
20.6%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short left to #14 B.Staley thrown to TEN50Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
21.2%
(08:05) #98 J.Ross punt 57 yards to the ARK00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2421% → 21%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
20.5%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARK27 (#1 T.Metcalf; #22 J.Telander)Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
21.1%
(07:24) Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK29 (#0 A.Campbell)Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
21.2%
(06:47) Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK34 (#10 D.Lane; #7 A.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
21.4%
(06:11) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARK38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
22.3%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #83 J.Platt thrown to ARK34 QB hurried by #26 J.FinchSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
21.4%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #4 I.Cisse thrown to ARK43 broken up by #19 N.RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
21.1%
(05:33) #37 G.Rush punt 43 yards to the TEN19 fair catch by #6 Q.Moss at TEN19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4676% → 76%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
24.3%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at TEN27, for 20 yards to the TEN39 (#1 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
22.9%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TEN46 (#2 S.Lewis; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
22.8%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEN50 (#13 C.Stoutmire; #7 B.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
50
0
22.2%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete deep left to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK15, for 35 yards to the ARK15 (#2 S.Lewis) PENALTY TEN Illegal Touch-Pass (#14 B.Staley). NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
50
+1
22.5%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK49 (#25 J.Smith; #55 A.Sandel Bascomb)Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-3
22.3%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TEN48 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
24.4%
(02:34) #98 J.Ross punt 44 yards to the ARK08 fair catch by #5 S.Smith at ARK08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3322% → 22%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
21.6%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #85 T.Lockwood caught at ARK11, for 5 yards to the ARK13 (#10 D.Lane)Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
22.2%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Marshall thrown to ARK25Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
21.8%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Faupel thrown to ARK19 QB hurried by #0 A.CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
21.5%
(01:53) #37 G.Rush punt 32 yards to the ARK45 fair catch by #6 Q.Moss at ARK45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:2379% → 80%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.2%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK49, for 0 yards to the ARK45 (#1 C.Harrison; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
21.8%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARK46 (#6 K.House; #0 H.Osborne)Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+19
22.2%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short middle to #4 M.Matthews caught at ARK29, for 19 yards to the ARK27, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
20.6%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK19 (#25 J.Smith)Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
19.1%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Matthews thrown to ARK00 QB hurried by #6 K.HouseSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+58
20.5%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ARK22 fumbled by #12 G.MacIntyre at ARK20 recovered by ARK #97 Q.Rhodes Jr. at ARK22 #97 Q.Rhodes Jr. return 58 yards to the TEN20 (#12 G.MacIntyre; #3 R.Jackson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13MISSED FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
31.6%
(00:03) #30 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2080% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.2%
PENALTY TEN False Start (#69 D.Haslam) 5 yards from TEN25 to TEN20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
20.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEN22 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
20.9%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short middle to #82 T.Thomas thrown to TEN40 broken up by #6 K.HouseSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-1
21.5%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at TEN17, for 1 yard loss to the TEN21 (#20 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
22.2%
(13:44) #98 J.Ross punt 49 yards to the ARK30 fair catch by #5 S.Smith at ARK30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:2522% → 41%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
22.4%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 27 yards gain to the TEN43 (#6 Q.Moss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
24.9%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush left for 1 yard gain to the TEN42 (#2 X.Gilliam)Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+22
24.9%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Hawkins rush right for 22 yards gain to the TEN20 (#6 Q.Moss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
26.2%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush right for 11 yards gain to the TEN09 (#1 T.Metcalf; #19 N.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
41.2%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:04 #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston) PENALTY TEN Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2967% → 66%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.2%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short right thrown to TEN30 QB hurried by #6 K.House PENALTY ARK Holding (#2 S.Lewis) 10 yards from TEN25 to TEN35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
32.3%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at TEN39, for 5 yards to the TEN40, End Of Play PENALTY TEN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#58 N.Moore) 5 yards from TEN35 to TEN30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
33.6%
(10:38) Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by #24 M.Mitchell at ARK37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 5:5838% → 66%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
37.7%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ARK46 (#4 T.Redmond; #1 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
40.6%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Parker rush left for 6 yards gain to the TEN48 (#35 C.Gentle; #0 A.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
41.7%
(09:15) Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 6 yards gain to the TEN42 (#7 A.Carter; #33 J.Norman)Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
42.5%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 12 yards gain to the TEN30 (#10 D.Lane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
44.1%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the TEN27 (#1 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+7
44.8%
(07:19) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 C.Marshall caught at TEN22, for 7 yards to the TEN20 (#1 T.Metcalf; #7 A.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
45.4%
(06:34) Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush left for 4 yards gain to the TEN16 (#0 A.Campbell; #5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+9
46.4%
(05:53) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 C.Marshall caught at TEN22, for 9 yards to the TEN07 (#4 T.Redmond), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
46.8%
(05:11) Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEN04 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.3%
(04:31) #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #83 J.Platt caught at TEN00, for 4 yards to the TEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:4542% → 41%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.6%
(04:28) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEN28 (#55 A.Sandel Bascomb; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
57.5%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short middle to #14 B.Staley thrown to TEN40 broken up by #2 S.LewisSimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
61.4%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at TEN38, for 22 yards to the TEN50 (#34 B.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
50
+15
56.0%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ARK35 (#1 C.Harrison; #44 B.Bogle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
54.3%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK40, for 3 yards to the ARK32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
54.1%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Morris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK31 (#25 J.Smith)Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
63.6%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete short right to #14 B.Staley thrown to ARK25Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
59.5%
(01:41) #28 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady), clock 01:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3860% → 59%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.3%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 1 yard loss to the ARK24 (#18 T.Weathersby)Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
60.6%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK33, for 10 yards to the ARK34 (#4 T.Redmond; #22 J.Telander)Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
62.3%
(00:13) No Huddle #0 B.Russell rush right for 29 yards gain (1) to the TEN37 (#10 D.Lane), out of bounds PENALTY ARK Holding (#50 K.Branham) 10 yards from ARK35 to ARK25Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle thrown to ARK25 broken up by #10 D.LaneSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
(14:55) #37 G.Rush punt 49 yards to the TEN26, out of bounds at TEN26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:4136% → 71%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+68
64.1%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short left to #7 D.Brame caught at TEN45, for 68 yards to the ARK06 (#2 S.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
56.4%
(13:59) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK01 (#1 C.Harrison)Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.9%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK01 (#0 H.Osborne; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.7%
(12:55) #7 D.Brame rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52 #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:2236% → 54%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.8%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#0 A.Campbell; #1 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
36.9%
(12:22) Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARK34 (#33 J.Norman)Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+20
38.2%
(11:43) #7 K.Jackson pass complete deep left to #85 T.Lockwood caught at TEN46, for 20 yards to the TEN46 (#4 T.Redmond; #10 D.Lane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
41.9%
(11:06) PENALTY ARK False Start (#50 K.Branham) 5 yards from TEN46 to ARK49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+8
38.5%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TEN43 (#1 T.Metcalf; #22 J.Telander)Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
40.7%
(10:14) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #8 D.Faupel caught at TEN36, for 8 yards to the TEN35 (#14 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
44.7%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TEN35, for 2 yards to the TEN33 (#4 T.Redmond)Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-5
45.4%
(08:51) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TEN38 (#18 T.Weathersby)Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+1
39.0%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush right for 1 yard gain to the TEN37 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
53.9%
(07:25) #30 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 55 yards GOOD (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston), clock 07:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3654% → 57%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.9%
PENALTY TEN False Start (#56 S.Pendleton) 5 yards from TEN25 to TEN20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+33
46.5%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at TEN21, for 33 yards to the ARK47 (#2 S.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.0%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass incomplete deep left to #3 R.Jackson thrown to ARK25Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
43.4%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at ARK42, for 5 yards to the ARK42 (#4 L.Roland)Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-11
43.3%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by #2 S.Lewis at ARK31 QB hurried by #1 C.Harrison #2 S.Lewis return 11 yards to the ARK42, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2560% → 56%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.5%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush left for 0 yards to the ARK42 (#2 X.Gilliam)Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
58.1%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Brown thrown to TEN45Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.2%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK45 (#9 M.Dye; #10 D.Lane)Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
56.0%
(04:16) #37 G.Rush punt 49 yards to the TEN06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:5748% → 97%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+59
52.1%
(04:06) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 59 yards gain to the ARK35 (#2 S.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
41.1%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
40.7%
(02:36) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK25 (#44 B.Bogle), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ARK Face Mask (#0 H.Osborne) 13 yards from ARK25 to ARK12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
40.9%
(02:08) Shotgun #4 M.Matthews rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK08 (#20 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
2.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1716% → 14%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.5%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle thrown to ARK25 QB hurried by #2 X.GilliamSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.7%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #85 T.Lockwood thrown to ARK30 broken up by #0 A.CampbellSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
(01:49) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #6 C.Marshall thrown to ARK36 broken up by #4 T.RedmondSimilar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.5%
(01:45) #37 G.Rush punt 39 yards to the TEN36 #6 Q.Moss return 2 yards to the TEN38 (#9 J.Hawkins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
3.1%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEN44 (#25 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
3.2%
(01:29) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TEN49 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
2.6%
(01:19) Kneel down by #12 G.MacIntyre at TEN45 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-5
2.7%
(01:16) Kneel down by #12 G.MacIntyre at TEN40 for loss of 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 19
OWN 40
-4
2.8%
(00:35) Kneel down by #12 G.MacIntyre at TEN36 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:57
(02:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-37.2
TD · Q4 12:52
(12:55) #7 D.Brame rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:52 #28 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-28.2
TD · Q3 4:28
(04:31) #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #83 J.Platt caught at TEN00, for 4 yards to the TEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston)
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com