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ARK

Arkansas 7 at Texas A&M 34

TA&M
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:28 · (05:31) Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TAMU03 (#99 L.Rink; #7 D.Brooks), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+14.5Home team on offense+24.3Score differential+16.8Garbage-time factor+6.2Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:00: (03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 20 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:00, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum) — TA&M win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:24: (00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete deep right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU00, for 26 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24, 1ST DOWN #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston) — ARK win probability +3.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:22: (02:27) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum) — TA&M win probability +3.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:02: (00:02) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 57 yards GOOD (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum), clock 00:00 — TA&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:42: (12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:42 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum) — TA&M win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:40TA&M 4th & 1 at ARK 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:42TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:34ARK 4th & 18 at TA&M 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:58ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02TA&M 4th & 3 at ARK 39, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:28ARK 4th & 1 at TA&M 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50TA&M 4th & 8 at ARK 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:22ARK 4th & 11 at TA&M 38, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:07TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:06ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 10, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:53TA&M 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:27TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:00TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:22TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:42TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1613% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#99 L.Rink)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
86.7%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK35, for 11 yards to the ARK41 (#27 D.Sanford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-39
86.4%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass intercepted by #7 D.Brooks at TAMU33 #7 D.Brooks return 39 yards to the ARK28 (#54 A.Hawkes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0787% → 87%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
86.6%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 2 yards loss to the ARK30 (#25 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+4
86.5%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK26 (#1 C.Harrison; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
86.3%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at ARK20, for 7 yards to the ARK19 (#2 S.Lewis)Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+6
86.1%
(11:46) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 6 yards gain to the ARK13 (#2 S.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
86.1%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK09 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
85.9%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK04 (#6 K.House; #24 M.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
85.7%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK02 (#24 M.Mitchell; #44 B.Bogle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4314% → 14%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.3%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARK27 (#0 N.Mikhail)Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.1%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #6 C.Marshall thrown to ARK32Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.3%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #6 C.Marshall thrown to TAMU45Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.3%
(08:48) #37 G.Rush punt 51 yards to the TAMU22 #1 M.Craver return 0 yards to the TAMU22 (#13 C.Stoutmire; #9 J.Hawkins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 5:3086% → 89%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
86.2%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 4 yards gain to the TAMU26 (#25 J.Smith; #88 X.Sims)Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
86.2%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #8 A.Bethel-Roman caught at TAMU26, for 3 yards to the TAMU29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
86.0%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 6 yards gain to the TAMU35 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.1%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU39 (#1 C.Harrison; #91 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
86.3%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TAMU44 (#44 B.Bogle; #6 K.House)Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
86.1%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU45 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.; #6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
86.2%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 23 yards gain to the ARK32, out of bounds at ARK32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
86.3%
(04:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARK30 (#41 B.Alston; #91 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
86.3%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at ARK31, for 10 yards to the ARK20 (#20 J.Johnson; #6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.6%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 20 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:00, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2712% → 16%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.7%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK34, for 10 yards to the ARK35 (#4 T.Byard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.4%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARK42 (#4 T.Byard; #19 B.Rogers)Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
87.2%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush right for 1 yard loss to the ARK41 (#99 L.Rink)Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
87.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at ARK45, for 12 yards to the TAMU47 (#6 J.Humphrey), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TAMU Roughing The Passer (#10 M.Jones) 15 yards from TAMU47 to TAMU32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
86.9%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #5 S.Smith caught at TAMU30, for 6 yards to the TAMU26 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
83.6%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete deep right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU00, for 26 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24, 1ST DOWN #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4185% → 84%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the TAMU25 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #7 I.Horton thrown to TAMU34Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #7 I.Horton thrown to TAMU38 broken up by #24 M.MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+44
84.4%
(14:51) #37 T.White punt 44 yards to the ARK31 #5 S.Smith return for loss of 1 yard to the ARK30 (#21 R.Coney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:0115% → 15%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
84.6%
(14:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ARK44 (#7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.1%
(14:05) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Marshall thrown to TAMU42Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
84.3%
PENALTY ARK False Start (#50 K.Branham) 5 yards from ARK44 to ARK39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
84.6%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #5 S.Smith caught at ARK42, for 3 yards to the ARK42, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was not down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #5 S.Smith caught at ARK42, for 5 yards to the ARK44 (#11 B.Davis-Swain; #21 R.Coney))Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
84.7%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Faupel thrown to TAMU48 QB hurried by #14 A.SakaSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+15
85.0%
(13:12) #37 G.Rush punt 51 yards to the TAMU07 PENALTY TAMU Roughing The Kicker (#81 J.Warren) 15 yards from ARK42 to TAMU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
83.5%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TAMU29 (#4 T.Byard; #27 D.Sanford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
82.8%
(12:27) PENALTY ARK False Start (#54 A.Hawkes) 5 yards from TAMU29 to TAMU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
83.3%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #4 I.Cisse thrown to TAMU25 QB hurried by #92 C.MimsSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+4
83.4%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU30 (#27 D.Sanford; #5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-7
83.6%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TAMU37 (#10 M.Jones)Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 18
OPP 37
+55
84.6%
(10:35) #30 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 55 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston), clock 10:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8TD
17 plays · 63 yds · 8:0085% → 89%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
84.9%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #18 T.Norman caught at TAMU38, for 17 yards to the ARK46 (#4 L.Roland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
85.5%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ARK34 (#4 L.Roland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.5%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK32 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
85.4%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #4 R.Owens II caught at ARK30, for 6 yards to the ARK26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+9
85.4%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ARK17 (#6 K.House; #4 L.Roland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
85.8%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK14 (#92 D.Oke; #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
85.7%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK14 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+5
85.1%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #18 T.Norman caught at ARK09, for 5 yards to the ARK09, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+5
84.4%
(05:23) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 27 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum), clock 05:22 PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ARK09 to ARK04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
85.5%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARK05 (#44 B.Bogle; #92 D.Oke)Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
85.4%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 1 yard gain to the ARK04 (#6 K.House; #34 B.Green)Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
85.0%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#71 T.Adams) 5 yards from ARK04 to ARK09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
84.9%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #87 H.Thomas thrown to ARK00 QB hurried by #0 H.Osborne PENALTY ARK Holding (#4 L.Roland) 5 yards from ARK09 to ARK04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.4%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK01 (#0 H.Osborne; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.2%
(02:58) Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK01 (#55 A.Sandel Bascomb; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.8%
(02:27) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2012% → 11%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Marshall thrown to ARK25 QB hurried by #14 A.SakaSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Brown thrown to ARK25Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Hawkins thrown to ARK35 broken up by #21 R.Coney PENALTY ARK Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
(02:07) #37 G.Rush punt 47 yards to the TAMU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:4890% → 92%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.9%
(01:57) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #87 H.Thomas caught at TAMU27, for 3 yards to the TAMU31 (#44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
89.9%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #8 A.Bethel-Roman caught at TAMU27, for 6 yards to the TAMU37 (#6 K.House; #1 C.Harrison)Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+17
90.0%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 17 yards gain to the ARK46, out of bounds at ARK46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
90.5%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 17 yards gain to the ARK29, out of bounds at ARK29 PENALTY TAMU Holding (#79 L.Rogers) 10 yards from ARK46 to TAMU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+10
90.3%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #87 H.Thomas thrown to ARK45 PENALTY ARK Holding (#20 J.Johnson) 10 yards from TAMU44 to ARK46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.5%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #87 H.Thomas thrown to ARK37Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
90.6%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep right to #7 I.Horton thrown to ARK26Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.3%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #87 H.Thomas caught at ARK40, for 7 yards to the ARK39 (#24 M.Mitchell), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+57
91.6%
(00:02) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 57 yards GOOD (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1392% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 2 yards gain to the TAMU27 (#0 H.Osborne; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
91.9%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush right for 16 yards gain to the TAMU43 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+54
92.2%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #9 K.Armstrong caught at TAMU50, for 54 yards to the ARK03 (#2 S.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:42 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 7:044% → 3%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.2%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #5 S.Smith caught at ARK30, for 7 yards to the ARK32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
96.2%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK34 (#27 D.Sanford; #99 L.Rink)Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+30
96.3%
(11:34) No Huddle #0 B.Russell rush right for 30 yards gain to the TAMU36 (#8 J.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.6%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Parker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TAMU31 (#92 C.Mims; #11 B.Davis-Swain)Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+10
96.3%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU26, for 10 yards to the TAMU21 (#0 N.Mikhail), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
96.4%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush right for 3 yards gain to the TAMU18 (#17 R.Henderson; #6 J.Humphrey)Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
96.5%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush right for 4 yards gain to the TAMU14 (#0 N.Mikhail; #3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+7
96.9%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TAMU07 (#7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
96.7%
(07:38) Shotgun #27 C.Settles rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TAMU08 (#92 C.Mims; #14 A.Saka)Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.8%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU11, for 0 yards to the TAMU08 (#8 J.Shaw)Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.2%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU04, for 7 yards to the TAMU01 (#6 J.Humphrey)Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.5%
(05:31) Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TAMU03 (#99 L.Rink; #7 D.Brooks), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:3398% → 100%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
97.7%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU04 (#25 J.Smith; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+1
97.7%
(04:40) Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU05 (#25 J.Smith; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+14
98.1%
(03:57) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 14 yards gain to the TAMU19 (#1 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
98.2%
PENALTY ARK Offside (#28 T.Odom) 5 yards from TAMU19 to TAMU24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+14
98.3%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #18 T.Norman caught at TAMU22, for 14 yards to the TAMU38 (#6 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
98.5%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 I.Horton caught at ARK44, for 28 yards to the ARK34 (#2 S.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
98.5%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ARK37 (#6 K.House)Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+5
98.6%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#3 A.Gregory) 5 yards from ARK37 to ARK42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+10
98.6%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #8 A.Bethel-Roman caught at ARK44, for 10 yards to the ARK32 (#1 C.Harrison; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
98.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #4 R.Owens II thrown to ARK38Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
99.8%
(14:54) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum), clock 14:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #6 C.Marshall thrown to TAMU34 broken up by #6 J.Humphrey, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TAMU Pass Interference (#6 J.Humphrey) 15 yards from ARK25 to ARK40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
(14:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK41 (#4 T.Byard)Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #5 S.Smith caught at ARK40, for 11 yards to the TAMU48 (#4 T.Byard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #5 S.Smith caught at ARK40, for 16 yards to the TAMU43 (#4 T.Byard), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
99.9%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #8 D.Faupel caught at TAMU38, for 11 yards to the TAMU37 (#6 J.Humphrey; #27 D.Sanford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
99.9%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #5 S.Smith caught at TAMU41, for 3 yards loss to the TAMU40 (#27 D.Sanford)Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 13
OPP 40
0
99.9%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #6 C.Marshall thrown to TAMU20 PENALTY ARK Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TAMU33 (#28 C.Collins)Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+5
99.8%
PENALTY ARK False Start (#75 K.Broussard) 5 yards from TAMU33 to TAMU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush left for 5 yards gain to the TAMU33 (#18 T.Searcy), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 4 yards gain to the TAMU37 (#13 C.Stoutmire; #25 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU43 (#91 C.Jones; #13 C.Stoutmire), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 4 yards gain to the TAMU47 (#44 B.Bogle; #1 C.Harrison)Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU49 (#90 C.Bell)Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #87 H.Thomas thrown to ARK42 QB hurried by #9 C.CollinsSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(08:11) #37 T.White punt 40 yards to the ARK11 fair catch by #5 S.Smith at ARK11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #4 I.Cisse thrown to ARK21 broken up by #8 J.ShawSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
99.9%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARK10 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
99.9%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Marshall thrown to ARK18 broken up by #18 T.SearcySimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
99.9%
(07:15) #37 G.Rush punt 34 yards to the ARK44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:04100% → 100%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 T.Norman rush left for 16 yards gain to the ARK28 (#44 B.Bogle; #90 C.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARK25 (#88 X.Sims; #8 P.Jackson)Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK24 (#8 P.Jackson; #44 B.Bogle)Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush left for 8 yards gain to the ARK16 (#44 B.Bogle; #13 C.Stoutmire), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 0 yards to the ARK16 (#25 J.Smith; #22 T.Lockett)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush left for 1 yard gain to the ARK15 (#13 C.Stoutmire; #90 C.Bell)Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+12
100.0%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Murray rush right for 12 yards gain to the ARK03 (#22 T.Lockett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Murray rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK01 (#0 H.Osborne; #28 T.Odom)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
100.0%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#70 R.Bourdon) 5 yards from ARK01 to ARK06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
100.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK05 (#92 D.Oke)Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
100.0%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK01 (#22 T.Lockett)Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK01 (#13 C.Stoutmire; #44 B.Bogle), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK01 (#4 T.Byard; #54 J.Lockhart)Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
100.0%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK06 (#94 A.McCullom)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:42
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:42 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)
+4.3
TD · Q2 2:22
(02:27) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:22 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)
+3.6
TD · Q1 0:24
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete deep right to #6 C.Marshall caught at TAMU00, for 26 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24, 1ST DOWN #30 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #37 G.Rush, LS: #51 A.Johnston)
-3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com