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ALA

Alabama 56 at Mississippi State 23

MSST
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:09: (09:13) Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #7 Z.Ragins caught at Bama09, for 11 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:09, 1ST DOWN #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #47 W.Wilkinson, LS: #46 K.Rushing) — MSST win probability +13.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 1:56: (02:00) #17 T.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +11.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: (09:43) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at State00, for 13 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +12.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:07: (07:12) #17 T.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:07 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +7.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: (02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete deep middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama10, for 45 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:38, 1ST DOWN #1 K.Taylor pass attempt failed — MSST win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 13:56MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:38ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:16MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:40ALA 4th & 5 at MSST 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:53MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 14 at ALA 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:55MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 47, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:38MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:28MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 18, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:27MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 43, down 33
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:30ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:53ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:09MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:56ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:40ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:07ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:38MSST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:02ALA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:02ALA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3534% → 35%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at State25, for 8 yards to the State33 (#4 L.Metz; #18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
33.9%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 F.Bothwell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the State34 (#4 L.Metz; #1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
34.0%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at State34, for 4 yards to the State38 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
34.3%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama48, for 19 yards to the Bama43 (#18 B.Hubbard; #4 L.Metz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
34.6%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 9 yards to the State48 (#90 L.Simmons), fumble by #1 K.Taylor recovered by Bama #90 L.Simmons at State48, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 3:0566% → 67%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
34.4%
(13:11) #4 D.Hill rush middle for 6 yards gain to the State42 fumbled by #4 D.Hill at State41 forced by #5 J.Gilbert recovered by Bama #64 M.Carroll at State42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
34.5%
(12:32) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the State38 (#4 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
34.7%
(11:49) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the State33 (#4 A.Williams; #3 K.Dolby)Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
34.7%
(11:13) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #17 T.Brown caught at State31, for 6 yards to the State27 (#5 J.Gilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
34.9%
(10:35) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 12 yards gain to the State15 (#20 J.Jefferson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
33.5%
(09:46) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at State09, for 15 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:41, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0534% → 32%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.1%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush right for 4 yards gain to the State29 (#11 X.Griffin)Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
34.2%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush right for 1 yard gain to the State30 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-30
31.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass intercepted by #5 D.Lee Jr. at State30 #5 D.Lee Jr. return 30 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5732% → 36%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.8%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 1 yard gain to the State26 (#11 X.Griffin; #28 C.O'Neal)Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
31.8%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 1 yard gain to the State27 (#88 I.Faga; #36 Q.Reese)Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
31.7%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at State39, for 25 yards to the Bama48 (#28 C.O'Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
32.4%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama43, for 13 yards to the Bama35 (#18 B.Hubbard; #28 C.O'Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
32.5%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #2 M.Johnson caught at Bama29, for 10 yards to the Bama25 (#5 D.Lee Jr.; #6 R.Morgan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.3%
(05:57) Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 0 yards to the Bama25 (#1 D.Thompkins; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
32.3%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #13 S.Magee thrown to Bama22 broken up by #7 C.WoodsonSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
32.0%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #2 M.Johnson caught at Bama13, for 12 yards to the Bama13 (#2 Z.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
32.2%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #87 S.West caught at Bama05, for 8 yards to the Bama05 (#3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
32.2%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama11, for 1 yard to the Bama04 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
31.9%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Bama02 (#4 L.Metz; #19 C.McDonald III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama03, for 2 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:26 #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #47 W.Wilkinson, LS: #46 K.Rushing)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2766% → 72%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.8%
(03:26) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Bama32 (#5 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
33.3%
(02:47) #9 M.Pritchett rush left for 8 yards gain to the Bama40 (#11 T.Lockhart; #14 D.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
(02:11) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete deep left to #7 R.Scott thrown to State39Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
33.1%
(02:05) #4 D.Hill rush left for 0 yards to the Bama40 (#5 J.Gilbert) PENALTY Bama Illegal Shift 5 yards from Bama40 to Bama35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-4
33.7%
(01:40) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Bama31 (#35 K.Dinkins)Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+39
34.1%
(00:55) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #3 L.Brooks caught at State30, for 39 yards to the State30 (#28 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.2%
(00:06) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete deep middle to #7 R.Scott thrown to State00 broken up by #20 J.Jefferson QB hurried by #11 T.LockhartSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
32.6%
(00:00) #17 T.Brown rush middle for 13 yards gain to the State17 (#1 K.Jones; #9 J.Bledsoe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
27.6%
(15:00) #12 K.Russell rush right for 17 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5429% → 29%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.4%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to State33Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.3%
(14:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to Bama45 QB hurried by #0 Y.PierreSimilar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
29.1%
(14:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 6 yards to the State19 (#90 L.Simmons, #11 X.Griffin)Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
28.5%
(14:02) #8 E.Pulliam punt 43 yards to the Bama38, out of bounds at Bama38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1873% → 73%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.2%
(13:56) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #7 R.Scott caught at Bama44, for 7 yards to the Bama45 (#1 K.Jones) PENALTY Bama Illegal Formation (#70 W.Sanders) 5 yards from Bama38 to Bama33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
27.5%
(13:17) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Bama41 (#15 M.Williams; #20 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
26.7%
(12:39) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Bama45 (#20 J.Jefferson; #2 I.Smith)Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
26.2%
(11:51) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete deep middle to #3 L.Brooks thrown to State18 QB hurried by #42 D.ReedSimilar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
26.6%
(11:44) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 44 yards to the State11 fair catch by #3 A.Evans III at State11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1627% → 27%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
27.0%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 2 yards loss to the State09 (#99 T.Green; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
26.8%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to State20Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+5
27.1%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #13 S.Magee thrown to State28 broken up by #18 B.Hubbard PENALTY Bama Offside (#0 Y.Pierre) 5 yards from State09 to State14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-2
27.1%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 4 yards to the State10 (#99 T.Green, #11 X.Griffin)Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 11
OWN 10
-2
26.9%
(10:23) #8 E.Pulliam punt 45 yards to the Bama45 muffed by #5 D.Lee Jr. at Bama45 recovered by State #46 K.Rushing at Bama43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:1029% → 29%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
29.0%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to Bama35Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+27
29.0%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #13 S.Magee caught at Bama31, for 27 yards to the Bama16 fumbled by #13 S.Magee at Bama31 forced by #18 B.Hubbard recovered by Bama #2 Z.Brown at Bama16, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3476% → 76%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
24.3%
(10:02) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Bama08 (#43 W.Whitson)Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+3
24.5%
(09:22) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Bama11 fumbled by #4 D.Hill at Bama09 forced by #9 J.Bledsoe recovered by State #3 K.Dolby at Bama11, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
38.1%
(09:13) Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #7 Z.Ragins caught at Bama09, for 11 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:09, 1ST DOWN #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #47 W.Wilkinson, LS: #46 K.Rushing)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1468% → 67%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
32.0%
(08:59) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the State48 (#4 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
30.1%
(08:14) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at Bama49, for 1 yard to the State47 (#11 T.Lockhart; #3 K.Dolby)Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-1
32.4%
(07:25) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 1 yard to the State48 (#11 T.Lockhart, #0 F.Forrest)Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
33.5%
(06:45) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 34 yards to the State14 fair catch by #3 A.Evans III at State14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:3934% → 34%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
33.8%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #3 A.Evans III caught at State20, for 17 yards to the State31 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
34.4%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush left for 3 yards gain to the State34 (#3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+13
34.5%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 13 yards gain to the State47 (#11 X.Griffin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
36.0%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Evans III thrown to Bama35Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
35.8%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Bama49 (#11 X.Griffin)Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
36.0%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to #0 G.Harris thrown to Bama33Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
33.6%
(04:58) #8 E.Pulliam punt 37 yards to the Bama12 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at Bama12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:5166% → 83%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
34.3%
(04:53) #17 T.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Bama16 (#21 D.Riley)Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
34.3%
(04:17) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short left to #30 D.Meadows thrown to Bama28 QB hurried by #14 D.EvansSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+50
34.8%
(04:12) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #3 L.Brooks caught at State34, for 50 yards to the State34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.3%
(03:21) Shotgun #7 R.Scott rush right for 4 yards gain to the State30 (#2 I.Smith; #20 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
28.6%
(02:50) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the State29 (#42 D.Reed)Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+22
28.8%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at State07, for 22 yards to the State07 (#1 K.Jones), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY State Offside declinedSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
17.3%
(02:00) #17 T.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 1:5223% → 27%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.8%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to State30 broken up by #5 D.Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #13 S.Magee thrown to State26 QB hurried by #35 A.Sanders Jr. and #0 Y.PierreSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
22.4%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at State40, for 18 yards to the State43 (#2 Z.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
24.4%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 6 yards to the State37 (#1 D.Thompkins, #0 Y.Pierre) PENALTY Bama Personal Foul (#11 X.Griffin) 15 yards from State43 to Bama42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
24.8%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #13 S.Magee caught at Bama28, for 14 yards to the Bama28 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
25.8%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama19, for 7 yards to the Bama21 (#3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
26.0%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Bama17 (#7 C.Woodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
26.0%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to Bama11 QB hurried by #7 C.WoodsonSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
26.0%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #13 S.Magee thrown to Bama04, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Bama Pass Interference (#2 Z.Brown) 13 yards from Bama17 to Bama04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
26.0%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Evans III thrown to Bama00 PENALTY Bama Pass Interference (#21 D.Kirkpatrick Jr.) 2 yards from Bama04 to Bama02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
25.9%
(00:24) Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush right for 2 yards loss to the Bama04 (#1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+10
25.9%
(00:18) Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short left to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to Bama00 PENALTY State Holding (#78 D.Chester) 10 yards from Bama04 to Bama14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
25.5%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #7 Z.Ragins thrown to Bama05 QB hurried by #1 D.ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
24.2%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short right to #87 S.West thrown to Bama00Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
26.7%
Kyle Ferrie 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0974% → 89%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.5%
(15:00) #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #17 T.Brown caught at Bama22, for 6 yards to the Bama31 (#5 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+25
25.8%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #7 R.Scott caught at State45, for 25 yards to the State44 (#20 J.Jefferson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
24.8%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the State41 (#42 D.Reed; #4 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+32
24.5%
(13:01) #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #81 K.Edwards caught at State21, for 32 yards to the State09 (#1 K.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
23.7%
(12:08) PENALTY Bama Delay Of Game (#12 K.Russell) 5 yards from State09 to State14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
23.7%
(11:41) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Scott thrown to State14 QB hurried by #97 J.JenkinsSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
23.7%
(11:36) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the State09 (#0 F.Forrest) PENALTY Bama Holding (#64 M.Carroll) 10 yards from State14 to State24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+6
23.6%
(11:08) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at State26, for 6 yards to the State18 (#97 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
23.5%
(10:20) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 6 yards to the State24 (#43 W.Whitson) PENALTY State Offside (#40 G.Cordova) 5 yards from State18 to State13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
11.2%
(09:43) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at State00, for 13 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0614% → 13%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.9%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 0 yards to the State25 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
13.6%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 5 yards to the State20 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones, #20 J.Latham)Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
13.1%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass intercepted by #7 C.Woodson at State25 #7 C.Woodson return 4 yards to the State21 (#87 S.West)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1590% → 98%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
10.3%
(08:28) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 3 yards gain to the State18 (#4 A.Williams; #20 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+10
9.7%
(07:51) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #7 R.Scott caught at State09, for 10 yards to the State08 (#2 I.Smith; #15 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.2%
(07:12) #17 T.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:07 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:232% → 11%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.0%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 4 yards gain to the State29 (#11 X.Griffin; #36 Q.Reese)Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
1.9%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 4 yards gain to the State33 (#11 X.Griffin; #6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
2.0%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 5 yards gain to the State38 (#11 X.Griffin; #36 Q.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
1.9%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at State45, for 7 yards to the State45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
1.7%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Evans III thrown to Bama05Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
1.8%
(05:43) Shotgun #6 K.Wilson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the State47 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones; #14 F.Henry)Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+4
1.8%
(05:01) Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush right for 4 yards gain to the Bama49 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
1.7%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 6 yards to the State45 (#14 F.Henry, #6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
1.4%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 0 yards to the State45 (#4 L.Metz; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+10
1.3%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short right to #88 J.Skipworth caught at Bama48, for 10 yards to the Bama45 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+45
10.5%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete deep middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at Bama10, for 45 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:38, 1ST DOWN #1 K.Taylor pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2095% → 99%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
4.9%
(02:32) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #9 M.Pritchett caught at Bama35, for 32 yards to the State43 (#11 T.Lockhart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
4.4%
(01:52) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush right for 7 yards gain to the State36 (#21 D.Riley)Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
4.1%
(01:12) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #87 D.Lewis Jr. thrown to State33 QB hurried by #11 T.LockhartSimilar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+14
4.2%
(01:07) #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #9 M.Pritchett caught at State23, for 14 yards to the State22 (#3 K.Dolby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
3.8%
(00:27) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at State25, for 6 yards to the State16 (#3 K.Dolby)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
3.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the State13 (#11 T.Lockhart; #4 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
3.8%
PENALTY Bama Delay Of Game 4 yards from State13 to State17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
3.7%
(14:20) #17 T.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the State16 (#14 D.Evans; #0 F.Forrest)Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+5
4.0%
(13:36) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 34 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock 13:33 PENALTY State Running Into The Kicker (#21 D.Riley) 5 yards from State16 to State11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
3.4%
(13:31) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the State09 (#4 A.Williams; #13 L.James)Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
3.3%
(12:49) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the State08 (#21 D.Riley)Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
0.8%
(12:06) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at State00, for 8 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:291% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.7%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush middle for 1 yard loss to the State24 (#88 I.Faga)Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-6
0.5%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 X.Gayten rush left for 6 yards loss to the State18 (#14 F.Henry)Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
0.4%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass incomplete short middle to #13 S.Magee thrown to State32 QB hurried by #11 X.GriffinSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
0.4%
(10:35) #8 E.Pulliam punt 48 yards to the Bama34 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at Bama34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:1399% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
0.7%
(10:28) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #5 N.Rogers caught at State48, for 18 yards to the State48 (#26 J.Grimsley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+37
0.5%
(09:43) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 37 yards gain to the State11 (#6 B.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-7
0.5%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass incomplete short right to #30 D.Meadows thrown to State00 QB hurried by #14 D.Evans PENALTY Bama Intentional Grounding (#10 A.Mack)Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 17
OPP 18
+1
0.5%
(08:47) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #5 N.Rogers caught at State19, for 1 yard to the State17 (#0 F.Forrest) PENALTY State Personal Foul (#6 B.Womack) 9 yards from State17 to State08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.4%
(08:32) #0 A.Dear rush right for 5 yards gain to the State03 (#8 K.Singleton; #0 F.Forrest)Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
(08:05) Shotgun #10 A.Mack rush right for 3 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:02 #90 L.Quinn kick attempt good (H: #95 A.Green, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Hill rush right for 4 yards gain to the State29 (#13 I.Taylor; #15 D.Johnson II)Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
0.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the State31 (#26 M.Johnson)Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
0.1%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass complete short right to #88 J.Skipworth caught at State32, for 9 yards to the State40 (#36 Q.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.2%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass incomplete short middle to #88 J.Skipworth thrown to Bama45 broken up by #94 E.HillSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
0.1%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass complete short right to #13 S.Magee caught at State44, for 10 yards to the State50 (#10 J.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.2%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass complete short right to #88 J.Skipworth caught at Bama47, for 7 yards to the Bama43 (#36 Q.Reese; #17 Z.Gibson)Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
0.1%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Hill rush middle for 0 yards to the Bama43 (#26 M.Johnson; #25 S.Bolo Mboumoua)Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
0.1%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to Bama40 broken up by #28 C.O'NealSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
0.1%
(04:32) #8 E.Pulliam punt 34 yards to the Bama09 fair catch by #7 R.Scott at Bama09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF HALF
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
0.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Bama14 (#0 F.Forrest; #97 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
0.2%
(03:41) Shotgun #6 K.Riley rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Bama21 (#28 T.Johnson; #24 Q.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
0.2%
(02:49) #6 K.Riley rush left for 9 yards gain to the Bama30 (#6 B.Womack)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+1
0.1%
(02:00) #6 K.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Bama31 (#41 T.Willis; #19 M.Nickerson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
0.1%
(01:16) Kneel down by Alabama at Bama29 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-2
0.1%
(00:32) Kneel down by Alabama at Bama27 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:09
(09:13) Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #7 Z.Ragins caught at Bama09, for 11 yards to the Bama00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:09, 1ST DOWN #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #47 W.Wilkinson, LS: #46 K.Rushing)
+13.6
TD · Q3 9:40
(09:43) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at State00, for 13 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)
-12.3
TD · Q2 1:56
(02:00) #17 T.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com