Try the model
OU

Oklahoma 13 at Georgia 41

UGA
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.6UGA 98.1%Peyton Woodring 45 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 31 · Q3 7:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:58 · Peyton Woodring 45 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+13.2Pregame prior+12.1Blowout margin+9.5Garbage-time factor+9.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:16: (03:21) #5 C.Bowens rush right for 2 yards gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:16 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #51 W.Snellings) — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:58: Chris Cole 85 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick) — UGA win probability +0.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Chauncey Bowens 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:26: Rocky Beers 17 Yd pass from John Mateer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — OU win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 7:58: Peyton Woodring 45 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:49UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12OU 4th & 9 at OU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:57UGA 4th & 2 at OU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31OU 4th & 15 at OU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:11UGA 4th & 7 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:48OU 4th & 1 at OU 43, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:24OU 4th & 9 at OU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:59UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 44, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:58UGA 4th & 9 at OU 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:52OU 4th & 9 at UGA 36, down 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:22UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 42, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11OU 4th & 5 at OU 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:12OU 4th & 8 at OU 16, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:13UGA 4th & 15 at OU 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:44OU 4th & 2 at OU 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:15UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:11OU 4th & 3 at OU 23, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:16UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:26OU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:33UGA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:23OU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0580% → 79%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #5 C.Bowens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UGA29 (#34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
79.5%
(14:14) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush right for 3 yards gain to the UGA32 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
79.3%
(13:30) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #0 S.White-Helton caught at UGA29, for 2 yards to the UGA34 (#4 C.Guillory). The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (13:30) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #0 S.White-Helton caught at UGA29, for 3 yards to the UGA35 (#4 C.Guillory), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
79.1%
(12:55) #90 D.Miller punt 51 yards to the OU 15 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2921% → 21%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
79.1%
(12:49) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left thrown to OU 20Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
79.1%
(12:41) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 22, for 12 yards to the OU 27 (#9 C.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
78.9%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 28 (#90 E.Griffin; #5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
78.8%
(11:47) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 28, for 0 yards to the OU 28 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
78.7%
(11:03) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #17 M.Alleyne caught at OU 28, for 0 yards to the OU 28 (#8 D.Jones)Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+5
78.6%
(10:23) #87 J.Ulrich punt 56 yards to the UGA16 #0 S.White-Helton return 5 yards to the UGA21 (#9 D.Fields; #24 J.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 6:4578% → 81%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
78.4%
(10:12) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #81 C.Dandridge Jr. caught at UGA19, for 5 yards to the UGA26 (#22 P.Bowen; #16 D.Okoye)Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
78.3%
(09:34) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UGA24 (#10 K.Lewis, #65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+30
77.7%
(08:57) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete deep right to #1 T.Taylor caught at UGA50, for 30 yards to the OU 46 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
78.3%
(08:09) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #16 L.Humphreys caught at OU 49, for 5 yards to the OU 41 (#23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
78.2%
(07:33) #5 C.Bowens rush right for 7 yards gain to the OU 34 (#2 O.Robinson; #34 A.Adebawore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
78.2%
(06:52) Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush right for 15 yards gain to the OU 19 (#2 O.Robinson; #38 O.Heinecke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
78.1%
(06:11) Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU 15 (#47 J.Nesta), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
77.9%
(05:33) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 T.Taylor caught at OU 18, for 4 yards to the OU 11 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
77.5%
(04:47) #5 C.Bowens rush left for 0 yards to the OU 11 (#2 O.Robinson; #22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+3
76.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #9 E.Barbour caught at OU 09, for 3 yards to the OU 08 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
77.6%
(03:24) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Blackshear thrown to OU 01 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (#4 C.Guillory) 6 yards from OU 08 to OU 02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.5%
(03:21) #5 C.Bowens rush right for 2 yards gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:16 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #51 W.Snellings)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:3321% → 19%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.3%
(03:12) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 26 (#14 R.Dinkins; #4 K.Bolden)Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
79.5%
(02:32) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU 25 (#44 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
(01:48) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #14 E.Thomas thrown to OU 35Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.7%
(01:43) PENALTY OU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OU 25 to OU 20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+13
80.8%
(01:39) #87 J.Ulrich punt 47 yards to the UGA33 #0 S.White-Helton return 13 yards to the UGA46 (#14 E.Thomas; #47 J.Nesta)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0381% → 85%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
80.7%
(01:31) Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA48 (#38 O.Heinecke; #42 W.Gilmore)Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
84.8%
(00:53) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #20 D.Phillips Jr. caught at UGA44, for 7 yards to the OU 45 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
84.8%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 42 (#16 D.Okoye), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
85.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #16 L.Humphreys caught at OU 35, for 7 yards to the OU 35 (#4 C.Guillory)Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
85.4%
Talyn Taylor 35 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:0717% → 10%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.4%
(14:20) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 31, for 6 yards to the OU 31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
83.5%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OU 37 (#19 J.Williams; #31 K.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
83.7%
(13:03) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #9 L.Avant caught at OU 36, for 9 yards to the OU 46 (#3 Q.Johnson)Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+37
83.0%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep right to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UGA31, for 37 yards to the UGA17 (#1 E.Robinson IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
89.1%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UGA18 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+11
89.6%
(11:18) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at UGA10, for 11 yards to the UGA07 (#14 R.Dinkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
89.6%
(10:38) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UGA04 (#0 G.Harris Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
89.9%
(09:55) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA02 (#96 J.Hanne)Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+85
90.5%
Chris Cole 85 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:424% → 3%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.0%
(08:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 28, for 3 yards to the OU 28 (#24 B.Conley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.9%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 31, for 9 yards to the OU 37 (#15 K.Brooks; #24 B.Conley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
96.0%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU 36 (#5 R.Wilson; #95 N.Ogboko)Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+20
96.4%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 43, for 20 yards to the UGA44 (#7 K.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.6%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 50, for 1 yard to the UGA43 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
95.7%
PENALTY OU Delay Of Game 5 yards from UGA43 to UGA48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+5
96.4%
(05:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #14 E.Thomas caught at UGA44, for 5 yards to the UGA43 (#8 D.Jones)Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-29
97.4%
(05:13) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #4 K.Bolden at UGA18 #4 K.Bolden return 29 yards to the UGA47, out of bounds at UGA47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4497% → 97%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.0%
(04:58) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Blackshear thrown to OU 45Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.0%
(04:55) Shotgun #5 C.Bowens rush right for 3 yards gain to the UGA50 (#0 D.Stone), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 7
50
0
97.3%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.Taylor thrown to OU 15Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 7
50
0
97.2%
(04:17) #90 D.Miller punt 50 yards to the OU 00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:192% → 1%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.0%
(04:11) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #17 M.Alleyne thrown to OU 24 broken up by #7 K.BarnesSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.3%
(04:07) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #17 M.Alleyne caught at OU 35, for 14 yards to the OU 34 (#1 E.Robinson IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.4%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 35 (#81 J.Horton)Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
98.7%
(02:54) Shotgun #1 I.Sategna III rush right for 6 yards gain to the OU 41 (#5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
98.7%
(02:13) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 43, for 2 yards to the OU 43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-9
98.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OU 34 (#5 R.Wilson), fumble by #10 J.Mateer recovered by UGA #9 C.Cole at OU 34 #9 C.Cole return 23 yards to the OU 11 (#89 H.Hansen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3798% → 99%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
98.1%
(01:48) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #7 L.Luckie caught at OU 15, for 5 yards to the OU 06 (#8 B.Thomas; #34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Chauncey Bowens 6 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:451% → 2%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
(00:57) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU 26 (#52 V.Sone)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
98.6%
(00:17) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 31, for 10 yards to the OU 36 (#19 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.5%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OU 41 (#52 V.Sone)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:305% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 0 yards to the OU 25 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
(14:20) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 26 (#5 R.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
98.8%
(13:38) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #81 R.Beers thrown to OU 37Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.8%
(13:34) #87 J.Ulrich punt 53 yards to the UGA21 #0 S.White-Helton return 2 yards to the UGA23 (#24 J.Johnson; #47 J.Nesta)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
98.7%
(13:24) Shotgun #5 C.Bowens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UGA24 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
98.8%
(12:45) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass intercepted by #2 O.Robinson at UGA35 broken up by #10 K.Lewis, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:001% → 5%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.8%
(12:39) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UGA26 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
98.7%
(11:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UGA21 (#7 K.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.8%
(11:21) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep left to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UGA01Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.9%
(11:16) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UGA17 (#90 E.Griffin)Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
95.4%
Rocky Beers 17 Yd pass from John Mateer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
(10:26) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short left to #81 C.Dandridge Jr. thrown to UGA30 broken up by #8 B.ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.0%
(10:22) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #0 S.White-Helton caught at UGA23, for 2 yards to the UGA27 (#42 W.Gilmore) PENALTY OU Block Below Waist (#10 K.Lewis) 15 yards from UGA27 to UGA42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.4%
(09:51) Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA44 (#22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
96.6%
(09:17) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #23 J.Reddell thrown to OU 28Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
96.5%
(09:12) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Blackshear thrown to OU 42Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
96.2%
(09:07) #90 D.Miller punt 56 yards to the OU 00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.1%
(08:59) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 28, for 8 yards to the OU 28 fumbled by #81 R.Beers at OU 28 forced by #14 R.Dinkins recovered by UGA #14 R.Dinkins at OU 28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3197% → 98%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.8%
(08:48) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #10 E.Williams caught at OU 27, for 1 yard to the OU 27 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
96.6%
(08:14) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right thrown to OU 00Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
96.5%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #2 T.Blackshear thrown to OU 00 broken up by #23 E.BowenSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
98.1%
Peyton Woodring 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.9%
(07:58) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU 26 (#5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.0%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #17 M.Alleyne thrown to OU 33Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
98.1%
(07:22) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #9 L.Avant caught at OU 21, for 3 yards to the OU 29 (#5 R.Wilson; #3 Q.Johnson)Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.2%
(06:39) #87 J.Ulrich punt 45 yards to the UGA26 fair catch by #0 S.White-Helton at UGA26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.6%
(06:33) #23 J.Reddell rush right for 8 yards gain to the UGA34 (#42 W.Gilmore)Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
98.6%
(05:57) #5 C.Bowens rush left for 1 yard gain to the UGA35 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
98.6%
(05:39) No Huddle #5 C.Bowens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA37 fumbled by #5 C.Bowens at UGA37 forced by #4 C.Guillory recovered by OU #8 B.Thomas at UGA37, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:39) No Huddle #5 C.Bowens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA37 (#8 B.Thomas), 1ST DOWN)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:012% → 1%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.4%
(05:04) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #17 M.Alleyne caught at UGA40, for 4 yards to the UGA33 (#3 Q.Johnson; #99 J.Jonah-Ajonye). #1 E.Robinson IV, #17 M.Alleyne injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-4
98.3%
(04:29) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UGA37 (#81 J.Horton)Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+1
98.6%
(03:43) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UGA36 (#9 C.Cole; #19 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+54
98.7%
(02:55) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson), clock 02:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.1%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush right for 0 yards to the UGA37 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.1%
(02:08) #14 G.Stockton rush right for 5 yards gain to the UGA42 (#98 J.Kreul), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
99.2%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.Taylor thrown to OU 23Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.2%
(01:30) #90 D.Miller punt 40 yards to the OU 18 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.0%
(01:23) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OU 22 (#5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+13
99.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 21, for 13 yards to the OU 35 (#5 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep left to #14 E.Thomas thrown to UGA43Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.0%
(00:25) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OU 39 (#19 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
99.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 40 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.1%
(14:17) #87 J.Ulrich punt 41 yards to the UGA19 fair catch by #0 S.White-Helton at UGA19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.3%
(14:11) #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UGA22 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
99.4%
(13:28) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #0 S.White-Helton thrown to UGA45 broken up by #3 R.Powers IIISimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+24
99.4%
(13:23) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #5 C.Bowens caught at UGA17, for 24 yards to the UGA46 (#2 O.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.8%
Dwight Phillips Jr. 54 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.8%
(12:22) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 3 yards gain to the OU 17 (#3 Q.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
(11:45) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 3 yards gain to the OU 20 (#9 C.Cole) PENALTY OU Holding (#81 R.Beers) 8 yards from OU 17 to OU 09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
(11:19) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 5 yards gain to the OU 14 (#5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 16 (#99 J.Jonah-Ajonye)Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
99.9%
(10:20) #87 J.Ulrich punt 51 yards to the UGA33 fair catch by #0 S.White-Helton at UGA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
99.8%
(10:13) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete deep left to #1 T.Taylor caught at OU 26, for 41 yards to the OU 26 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OU Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
(09:48) Shotgun #20 D.Phillips Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU 25 (#16 D.Okoye)Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
(09:02) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep left to #1 T.Taylor thrown to OU 00Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-6
99.9%
(08:57) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush right for 6 yards loss to the OU 31 (#90 T.Wilson)Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+49
99.9%
Peyton Woodring 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:380% → 0%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
(08:13) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU 29 (#91 J.Greene)Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
(07:42) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 31 (#14 R.Dinkins)Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
(07:02) Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OU 36 (#38 A.Lonon Jr.; #10 Z.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
(06:27) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 35, for 5 yards to the OU 41 (#13 A.Kruah)Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(05:44) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #3 P.Livingstone caught at OU 32, for 0 yards to the OU 41 (#26 G.Williams) PENALTY OU Illegal Use Of Hands (#3 P.Livingstone) 5 yards from OU 41 to OU 36Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the OU 44 (#2 Z.Branch)Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+17
99.9%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #3 P.Livingstone caught at UGA39, for 17 yards to the UGA39 (#24 B.Conley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at UGA28, for 11 yards to the UGA28 (#13 A.Kruah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at UGA28, for 0 yards to the UGA28 (#12 J.Riddle) PENALTY UGA Roughing The Passer (#29 I.Gibson) 14 yards from UGA28 to UGA14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Manny Choice 14 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Shotgun #24 B.Walker rush left for 2 yards gain to the UGA27 (#47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Shotgun #24 B.Walker rush right for 4 yards gain to the UGA31 (#30 D.Bathurst)Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Shotgun #12 R.Puglisi pass incomplete deep left to #23 J.Reddell thrown to OU 42Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
#90 D.Miller punt 53 yards to the OU 16 #1 I.Sategna III return 0 yards to the OU 16 (#20 Z.Fort)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OU 21 (#52 V.Sone)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 23 (#95 N.Ogboko)Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Jordan thrown to OU 28 broken up by #27 B.StewartSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 25 (#13 A.Kruah), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
100.0%
Shotgun #24 B.Walker rush right for 5 yards gain to the OU 19 (#58 J.Carrington)Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
100.0%
PENALTY UGA False Start 5 yards from OU 19 to OU 24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.Puglisi pass complete short left to #8 L.Roldan caught at OU 18, for 6 yards to the OU 18 (#14 T.Haynes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:26
Rocky Beers 17 Yd pass from John Mateer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-3.5
TD · Q1 3:16
(03:21) #5 C.Bowens rush right for 2 yards gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:16 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #51 W.Snellings)
+2.9
FG · Q3 7:58
Peyton Woodring 45 Yd Field Goal
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com