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SC

South Carolina 18 at Alabama 49

ALA
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:29 · (11:41) #24 M.Love punt 51 yards to the ALA14 #1 R.Coleman-Williams return 17 yards to the ALA31 (#87 B.Hunt)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+24.8Pregame prior+13.3Score differential+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Garbage-time factor+6.1Blowout margin+9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Ryan Coleman-Williams 32 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick) — ALA win probability +4.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: (07:33) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep middle to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at USC15, for 42 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +8.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:20: (02:25) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass intercepted by #6 R.Morgan at USC23 #6 R.Morgan return 23 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:20 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: (00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep right to #8 N.Harbor caught at ALA12, for 41 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ALA Holding declined #32 M.Orsan kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #57 K.Farrow) — SC win probability +9.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:29: (14:33) #28 M.Fuller rush right for 9 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:29, 1ST DOWN #44 M.Brown II rush attempt Successful — SC win probability +3.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:42SC 4th & 18 at ALA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03SC 4th & 2 at ALA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:01SC 4th & 9 at SC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:52SC 4th & 10 at ALA 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51SC 4th & 9 at SC 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:43SC 4th & 2 at SC 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 44, up 25
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:14ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 43, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:29SC 4th & 5 at SC 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 47, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:35SC 4th & 12 at SC 14, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:05ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:56SC 4th & 3 at ALA 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:29SC 4th & 1 at ALA 9, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:35SC 4th & 7 at SC 46, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:22ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:33ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:20ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35SC Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:29SC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:40ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:21ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:0721% → 21%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
78.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush right for 56 yards gain to the ALA19 (#2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
78.4%
PENALTY USC False Start (#77 D.Gray) 5 yards from ALA19 to ALA24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
78.3%
(13:43) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Harbor thrown to ALA16 broken up by #0 Y.PierreSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+1
78.6%
(13:37) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 1 yard gain (1) to the ALA23 (#0 Y.Pierre; #18 B.Hubbard) PENALTY USC Holding (#87 B.Hunt) 10 yards from ALA23 to ALA33Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 24
OPP 33
+6
78.6%
(13:16) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #28 M.Fuller caught at ALA30, for 6 yards to the ALA27 (#6 R.Morgan), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 18
OPP 27
0
78.7%
(12:48) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short middle to #87 B.Hunt thrown to ALA17Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+45
78.8%
(12:42) #32 M.Orsan field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #57 K.Farrow), clock 12:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0379% → 79%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
78.8%
(12:41) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA29 (#0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
78.8%
(12:09) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 3 yards gain to the ALA32 (#17 J.Okoronkwo; #13 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
78.7%
(11:29) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA34 (#0 F.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+9
78.6%
(10:45) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 49 yards to the USC17 #4 V.Swain return 16 yards to the USC33 (#21 D.Kirkpatrick Jr.; #61 E.Stangle) PENALTY USC Personal Foul declined USC Illegal Block in Back 10 yards from USC26 to USC16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1321% → 22%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
78.6%
(10:19) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC20 (#4 L.Metz; #1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
78.6%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Harbor thrown to USC35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ALA Pass Interference (#5 D.Lee Jr.) 6 yards from USC20 to USC26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
78.6%
(09:57) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #3 M.Bennett Jr. caught at USC34, for 12 yards to the USC38 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.5%
(09:31) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 0 yards to the USC38 (#99 T.Green; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
78.5%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #83 D.Black caught at ALA45, for 17 yards to the ALA45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
78.2%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush right for 5 yards gain to the ALA40 (#0 Y.Pierre; #5 D.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
78.1%
(07:43) Shotgun #21 J.Coleman rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA33 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.8%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep middle to #1 N.Tuggle thrown to ALA02 broken up by #2 Z.BrownSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
77.8%
(07:12) Shotgun #21 J.Coleman rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA31 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones; #88 I.Faga)Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+6
78.1%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ALA25 (#7 C.Woodson; #36 Q.Reese)Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
78.2%
(06:09) No Huddle #87 B.Hunt rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA25 (#6 R.Morgan; #7 C.Woodson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.8%
(06:02) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #3 L.Brooks caught at USC30, for 75 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:4621% → 21%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
(05:53) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #28 M.Fuller thrown to USC27Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.6%
(05:46) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #28 M.Fuller caught at USC24, for 6 yards to the USC31 (#36 Q.Reese; #11 X.Griffin)Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
78.4%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Harbor thrown to USC34 QB hurried by #0 Y.Pierre PENALTY USC Illegal Motion declinedSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
78.7%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC31 to USC26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.9%
(05:07) #24 M.Love punt 44 yards to the ALA30 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at ALA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:4979% → 84%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
79.1%
(05:01) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush left for 6 yards gain to the ALA36 (#4 V.Swain)Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
79.3%
(04:22) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at ALA43, for 7 yards to the ALA43 (#4 V.Swain), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
79.2%
(03:41) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #3 L.Brooks thrown to USC43 QB hurried by #40 A.AddisonSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.0%
(03:37) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #7 R.Scott caught at ALA38, for 6 yards to the ALA49 (#4 V.Swain)Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
78.8%
(02:52) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #81 K.Edwards caught at USC47, for 6 yards to the USC45 (#8 J.Collier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
79.2%
(02:11) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC39 (#9 D.Bucey)Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
79.2%
(01:25) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush left for 39 yards gain (18) to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ALA Holding (#7 R.Scott) 10 yards from USC21 to USC31Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
79.3%
(01:17) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #3 L.Brooks caught at USC35, for 1 yard to the USC30 (#31 P.Williams; #9 D.Bucey) PENALTY ALA Holding (#40 J.Ford) 10 yards from USC31 to USC41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+9
78.9%
(00:45) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #6 K.Riley caught at USC35, for 9 yards to the USC32 (#0 F.Johnson; #4 V.Swain), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
83.8%
Ryan Coleman-Williams 32 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5418% → 20%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #83 D.Black caught at USC34, for 11 yards to the USC36 (#5 D.Lee Jr.; #13 I.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
81.8%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #6 D.Murph caught at USC49, for 15 yards to the ALA49 (#13 I.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.2%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep left to #6 D.Murph thrown to ALA27 QB hurried by #19 C.McDonald III and #11 X.GriffinSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
81.8%
(14:08) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush right for 0 yards to the ALA49 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+13
82.3%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 13 yards gain to the ALA36 (#6 R.Morgan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
81.4%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 20 yards gain to the ALA16 (#7 C.Woodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
80.9%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 0 yards to the ALA16 (#90 L.Simmons; #20 J.Latham)Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
81.3%
(12:02) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #4 I.Augustave caught at ALA18, for 0 yards to the ALA16 (#4 L.Metz; #1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
82.0%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA16 (#90 L.Simmons; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
80.5%
(10:51) #32 M.Orsan field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #57 K.Farrow), clock 10:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2182% → 92%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
(10:52) #13 E.Crowell rush left for 0 yards to the ALA25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
(10:08) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #6 K.Riley caught at ALA21, for 5 yards to the ALA30 (#55 J.Walker)Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
82.2%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ALA39 (#31 P.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
83.2%
(08:41) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at ALA37, for 5 yards to the ALA44 (#12 Q.Scott; #4 V.Swain), out of bounds PENALTY USC Roughing The Passer (#6 D.Stewart) 15 yards from ALA44 to USC41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
83.1%
(08:13) Shotgun #6 K.Riley rush left for 1 yard loss to the USC42 (#11 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+42
91.6%
(07:33) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep middle to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at USC15, for 42 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:1813% → 12%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.9%
(07:22) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #8 N.Harbor caught at USC31, for 6 yards to the USC31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
86.4%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC33 (#94 E.Hill; #22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
86.9%
(06:22) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC37 (#4 L.Metz; #1 D.Thompkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
86.8%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 1 yard gain to the USC38 (#0 Y.Pierre), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
87.1%
(05:04) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short left to #83 D.Black thrown to USC45Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
87.5%
(05:01) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Bennett Jr. thrown to USC40Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
87.9%
(04:59) #24 M.Love punt 45 yards to the ALA17 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at ALA17 PENALTY USC Return From Out Of Bounds (#1 G.Kilgore) 5 yards from ALA17 to ALA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5993% → 95%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.8%
(04:50) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush left for 0 yards to the ALA22 (#0 F.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+39
93.0%
(04:09) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 39 yards gain to the USC39 (#17 J.Okoronkwo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.4%
(03:19) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #7 R.Scott thrown to USC21 broken up by #4 V.SwainSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+36
93.4%
(03:13) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #5 N.Rogers caught at USC13, for 36 yards to the USC03 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.8%
(02:37) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #40 J.Ford caught at USC00, for 3 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:33 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-23
98.8%
(02:25) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass intercepted by #6 R.Morgan at USC23 #6 R.Morgan return 23 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:20 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:371% → 11%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.8%
(02:18) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC26 (#0 Y.Pierre; #18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
98.9%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #28 M.Fuller caught at USC22, for 4 yards to the USC30 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
(01:54) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #28 M.Fuller caught at USC27, for 3 yards to the USC33 (#6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
98.5%
(01:48) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC36 (#7 C.Woodson; #2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
98.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #87 B.Hunt caught at USC40, for 10 yards to the USC46 (#7 C.Woodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.6%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC49 (#90 L.Simmons; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
98.6%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #87 B.Hunt caught at ALA45, for 10 yards to the ALA41 (#4 L.Metz; #7 C.Woodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
89.2%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep right to #8 N.Harbor caught at ALA12, for 41 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ALA Holding declined #32 M.Orsan kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #57 K.Farrow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.6%
(00:28) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA36 (#33 T.Pikes; #0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.6%
(00:21) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA39, for 5 yards to the ALA41 (#17 J.Okoronkwo), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
96.6%
(00:16) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at ALA40, for 3 yards to the ALA44 (#0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+46
96.5%
(00:10) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 46 yards to the USC10 #4 V.Swain return for loss of 1 yard to the USC09 (#4 L.Metz; #6 R.Morgan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
94.5%
(00:00) Shotgun #22 J.Howell rush left for 6 yards gain to the USC15 (#4 L.Metz; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
96.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #9 M.Pritchett caught at ALA44, for 22 yards to the ALA47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
96.8%
(14:17) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 4 yards loss to the ALA43 (#0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
96.9%
(13:37) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete deep left to #1 R.Coleman-Williams thrown to USC22 broken up by #8 J.CollierSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
96.9%
(13:32) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Scott thrown to USC38 broken up by #8 J.CollierSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+6
97.0%
(13:25) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 43 yards to the USC14 #4 V.Swain return 6 yards to the USC20 (#61 E.Stangle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.8%
(13:13) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 10 yards gain to the USC30 (#18 B.Hubbard; #4 L.Metz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.8%
(12:50) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 0 yards to the USC30 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
97.0%
(12:25) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short middle to #87 B.Hunt thrown to USC35Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.1%
(12:22) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC35 (#99 T.Green)Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+17
97.2%
(11:41) #24 M.Love punt 51 yards to the ALA14 #1 R.Coleman-Williams return 17 yards to the ALA31 (#87 B.Hunt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5098% → 98%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.8%
(11:29) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at ALA38, for 8 yards to the ALA39 (#4 V.Swain)Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
98.0%
(10:51) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 7 yards gain to the ALA46 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.2%
(10:07) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 3 yards gain to the ALA49 (#17 J.Okoronkwo)Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
98.3%
(09:20) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle to #40 J.Ford thrown to USC35Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-2
98.3%
(09:16) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ALA47 (#40 A.Addison)Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
98.3%
(08:35) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 37 yards to the USC16, out of bounds at USC16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:442% → 2%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
97.9%
(08:28) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 1 yard loss to the USC15 (#1 D.Thompkins; #36 Q.Reese)Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+3
98.0%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC18 (#11 X.Griffin), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-2
98.1%
(07:27) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 4 yards to the USC14 (#0 Y.Pierre, #90 L.Simmons)Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 12
OWN 14
-6
98.1%
(06:44) #24 M.Love punt 53 yards to the ALA33 #1 R.Coleman-Williams return for loss of 6 yards to the ALA27 (#4 I.Augustave)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.7%
(06:35) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA29 (#11 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
98.8%
(05:57) Shotgun #1 R.Coleman-Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA33 (#31 P.Williams)Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
99.1%
(05:16) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle to #3 L.Brooks thrown to ALA40 QB hurried by #0 F.Johnson and #6 D.StewartSimilar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
99.0%
(05:05) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 42 yards to the USC25 fair catch by #4 V.Swain at USC25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:263% → 6%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.8%
(05:05) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC29 (#6 R.Morgan; #22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
96.7%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 6 yards gain to the USC35 (#7 C.Woodson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
97.0%
(03:57) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #44 M.Brown II caught at USC40, for 19 yards to the ALA46 (#4 L.Metz; #20 J.Latham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
97.0%
(03:22) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA47 (#88 I.Faga)Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+8
97.1%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #1 N.Tuggle caught at ALA40, for 8 yards to the ALA39 (#5 D.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
97.3%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short middle to #83 D.Black thrown to ALA35 broken up by #22 K.Bingley-JonesSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+10
97.6%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 10 yards gain to the ALA29 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.3%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Harbor thrown to ALA22Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
97.4%
(01:30) Shotgun #21 J.Coleman rush left for 11 yards gain to the ALA18 (#36 Q.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
97.3%
(00:50) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA16 (#99 T.Green; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
97.4%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush right for 4 yards gain to the ALA12 (#19 C.McDonald III)Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
97.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA09 (#7 C.Woodson; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
94.0%
(14:33) #28 M.Fuller rush right for 9 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:29, 1ST DOWN #44 M.Brown II rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 6:2898% → 100%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
98.3%
(14:23) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush left for 16 yards gain to the ALA42 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
98.6%
(13:30) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #81 K.Edwards caught at ALA48, for 7 yards to the ALA49 (#8 J.Collier; #17 J.Okoronkwo)Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
98.6%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC49 (#8 J.Collier)Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
98.7%
(12:24) #4 D.Hill rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC48 (#90 A.Harris; #17 J.Okoronkwo), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
98.8%
(11:29) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ALA43 (#13 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+21
99.3%
(10:45) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #81 K.Edwards caught at USC36, for 21 yards to the USC36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.4%
(09:55) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at USC28, for 12 yards to the USC24 (#17 J.Okoronkwo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.4%
(09:19) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #81 K.Edwards caught at USC28, for 10 yards to the USC14 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
99.5%
(08:33) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at USC01, for 13 yards to the USC01 (#5 K.Daniels Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
(07:40) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:40 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:081% → 0%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
(07:40) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #8 N.Harbor caught at USC20, for 5 yards loss to the USC20 (#6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
(07:05) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #28 M.Fuller caught at USC20, for 1 yard to the USC21 (#6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
99.6%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 15 yards gain to the USC36 (#7 C.Woodson), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 13 yards gain to the USC34 (#7 C.Woodson), out of bounds)Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.6%
(05:29) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #13 M.Clark caught at USC50, for 21 yards to the ALA43 fumbled by #13 M.Clark at ALA45 forced by #5 D.Lee Jr. recovered by ALA #4 L.Metz at ALA43 #4 L.Metz return 8 yards to the USC49 (#1 N.Tuggle), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
13 plays · 49 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
(05:15) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 12 yards gain to the USC37 (#4 V.Swain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
(04:52) #0 A.Dear rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC36 (#13 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
99.9%
(04:46) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush right for 1 yard loss to the USC37 (#17 J.Okoronkwo) PENALTY ALA Holding (#1 R.Coleman-Williams) 10 yards from USC36 to USC46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
(04:38) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 7 yards gain to the USC39 (#31 P.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+38
99.9%
(04:25) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep middle to #9 M.Pritchett caught at USC12, for 38 yards to the USC01 (#31 P.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
99.9%
(03:24) #13 E.Crowell rush middle for 10 yards loss to the USC11 (#34 J.Risher Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
99.9%
(02:43) #17 T.Brown rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC09 (#0 F.Johnson; #9 D.Bucey)Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Keelon Russell 9 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #4 I.Augustave rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC27 (#14 F.Henry)Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
100.0%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Woods pass complete short left to #3 M.Bennett Jr. caught at USC40, for 16 yards to the USC43 (#17 Z.Gibson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
100.0%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Woods pass incomplete short middle to #3 M.Bennett Jr. thrown to USC50Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Woods pass complete short right to #4 I.Augustave caught at USC41, for 2 yards to the USC45 (#21 D.Kirkpatrick Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 I.Augustave rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC46 (#25 S.Bolo Mboumoua)Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Woods rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC49 (#28 C.O'Neal), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
(00:31) Kneel down by #10 A.Mack at ALA49 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep right to #8 N.Harbor caught at ALA12, for 41 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ALA Holding declined #32 M.Orsan kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #57 K.Farrow)
-9.4
TD · Q2 7:22
(07:33) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep middle to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at USC15, for 42 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)
+8.5
TD · Q1 0:00
Ryan Coleman-Williams 32 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com