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UK

Kentucky 31 at Texas A&M 21

TA&M
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:59: (02:01) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #87 H.Boyer caught at TAMU01, for 3 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +9.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:07: (11:16) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep right to #19 K.Darby caught at TAMU19, for 42 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +15.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:55: (03:58) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:55 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +19.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:16: (00:18) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:16 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +15.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:37: (11:43) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 5 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:37 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum) — TA&M win probability +20.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:14TA&M 4th & 1 at UK 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12UK 4th & 10 at UK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14TA&M 4th & 1 at UK 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43UK 4th & 2 at TA&M 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20UK 4th & 15 at TA&M 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:24TA&M 4th & 10 at UK 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:19TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:17TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:22UK 4th & 3 at TA&M 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:20TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 22, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:40UK 4th & 5 at UK 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:50TA&M 4th & 4 at UK 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:57UK 4th & 12 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:55TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 27, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:18TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:59UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:07UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:55UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:16UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:37TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:45TA&M Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 76 yds · 5:3590% → 89%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.4%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU16 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
90.3%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #3 A.Gregory caught at TAMU20, for 6 yards to the TAMU22 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
90.2%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU25 (#22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.1%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU29 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
90.0%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 11 yards gain to the TAMU40 (#5 J.Castell; #14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
89.9%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TAMU48 (#0 B.Barnes; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+21
89.8%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep right to #1 M.Craver caught at UK31, for 21 yards to the UK31, out of bounds at UK31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.8%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #18 T.Norman thrown to UK25Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
89.7%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 9 yards gain to the UK22 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
89.6%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK20 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #91 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.5%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #87 H.Thomas thrown to UK13 broken up by #8 L.Cowan QB hurried by #8 L.CowanSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
89.5%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UK14 (#8 L.Cowan)Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
89.2%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK11 (#91 J.Williams; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
89.0%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 0 yards to the UK11 (#2 S.Greene), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0111% → 12%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
88.8%
(09:13) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #7 D.Miller caught at UK12, for 19 yards to the UK30, out of bounds at UK30, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:13) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #7 D.Miller caught at UK12, for 37 yards to the UK48 (#3 M.Ratcliffe), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
88.5%
(08:31) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK35 (#7 D.Brooks; #21 R.Coney)Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
88.2%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to UK39 QB hurried by #5 D.HicksSimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-3
88.3%
(08:04) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UK30 (#5 D.Hicks, #14 A.Saka)Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
88.3%
(07:21) #48 T.O'Hara punt 42 yards to the TAMU28 muffed by #1 M.Craver at TAMU28 recovered by TAMU #1 M.Craver at TAMU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:1088% → 87%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
88.1%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU24, for 4 yards to the TAMU32 (#0 B.Barnes; #14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
88.0%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush left for 6 yards gain to the TAMU38 (#5 J.Castell; #12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
87.9%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep middle to #1 M.Craver caught at UK42, for 21 yards to the UK41 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
88.0%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at UK43, for 1 yard to the UK40 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
87.8%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #11 K.Johnson thrown to UK34Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
87.6%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at UK41, for 8 yards to the UK32 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
87.3%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #88 M.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK29 (#14 T.Bryant; #94 T.Gadson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
87.6%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #0 K.Edwards caught at UK35, for 2 yards to the UK27 (#12 H.Sykes)Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-7
87.4%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #2 S.Greene at UK22 #2 S.Greene return 7 yards to the UK29 (#76 T.Baugh)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:3114% → 16%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.4%
(02:54) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #8 M.Skinner thrown to UK27Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+28
86.4%
(02:51) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #1 C.Baxter caught at UK30, for 28 yards to the TAMU43 (#6 J.Humphrey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
85.3%
(02:13) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #8 M.Skinner caught at TAMU46, for 7 yards to the TAMU36 (#10 M.Jones)Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
85.1%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep middle to #19 K.Darby thrown to TAMU10Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
85.2%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU35 (#4 T.Byard; #94 A.McCullom). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+3
85.2%
(00:43) #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU32 (#21 R.Coney; #18 T.Searcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
83.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 16 yards gain to the TAMU16 (#18 T.Searcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
83.7%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU12 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
83.5%
PENALTY UK False Start (#70 R.Fogler) 5 yards from TAMU12 to TAMU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-4
83.4%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TAMU21 (#18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
83.8%
(12:54) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush left for 0 yards to the TAMU21 (#0 N.Mikhail), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
84.4%
(12:20) #88 A.Zouagui field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti), clock 12:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:5485% → 88%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
84.5%
(12:18) Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 9 yards gain to the TAMU30 (#5 J.Castell; #14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
84.9%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #9 K.Armstrong caught at TAMU30, for 8 yards to the TAMU38 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.6%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 3 yards gain to the TAMU41, out of bounds at TAMU41Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
84.7%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #4 R.Owens II thrown to TAMU40 QB hurried by #90 M.Humphrey-GraceSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
84.0%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at TAMU46, for 8 yards to the TAMU49 (#12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
84.7%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU50 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 9
50
+4
84.6%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #0 K.Edwards caught at UK46, for 4 yards to the UK46 (#12 H.Sykes)Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+13
84.3%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at UK39, for 13 yards to the UK33 (#3 A.Gates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
84.6%
(08:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK30 (#94 T.Gadson; #2 S.Greene)Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
84.3%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK25 (#9 A.Afari Jr.; #2 S.Greene)Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
83.5%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at UK22, for 3 yards to the UK22, out of bounds at UK22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
83.9%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UK15 (#9 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
83.7%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 1 yard loss to the UK16 (#93 K.Edwards; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+14
83.0%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Gregory thrown to UK00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UK Pass Interference (#20 T.Nichols) 14 yards from UK16 to UK02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.1%
(05:21) Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:18 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0614% → 26%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
(05:10) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UK38 broken up by #6 J.HumphreySimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.5%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UK38 (#27 D.Sanford; #7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.8%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK40 (#27 D.Sanford)Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
85.6%
(03:51) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 7 yards gain to the UK47 (#9 R.Gibson III) PENALTY UK Holding (#73 O.Alinen) 10 yards from UK40 to UK30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+53
86.2%
(03:23) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep middle to #7 D.Miller caught at TAMU27, for 53 yards to the TAMU17 (#6 J.Humphrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
83.4%
(02:39) #8 M.Skinner rush left for 14 yards gain to the TAMU03 (#9 R.Gibson III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.4%
(02:01) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #87 H.Boyer caught at TAMU01, for 3 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:3080% → 80%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU29 (#22 G.Godfrey; #0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
80.3%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TAMU39 (#14 T.Bryant; #5 J.Castell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
80.8%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #7 I.Horton caught at UK47, for 19 yards to the UK42 (#5 J.Castell; #20 T.Nichols), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
81.9%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Gregory thrown to UK33 broken up by #12 H.SykesSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
81.8%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 0 yards to the UK42 (#0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
80.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Craver thrown to UK36Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
79.5%
(00:31) #37 T.White punt 42 yards to the UK00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.9%
(00:22) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 5 yards gain to the UK25 (#18 T.Searcy; #2 D.Ricks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4524% → 43%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK23, for 4 yards to the UK29 (#8 J.Shaw), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
75.2%
(14:25) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK34 (#0 N.Mikhail; #3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
74.7%
(13:51) #3 K.Minchey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK36 (#27 D.Sanford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.1%
(13:13) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK37 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
73.9%
(12:34) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #7 D.Miller caught at UK35, for 6 yards to the UK43 (#6 J.Humphrey), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
72.6%
(11:56) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 15 yards gain to the TAMU42 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
56.9%
(11:16) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep right to #19 K.Darby caught at TAMU19, for 42 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4362% → 59%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.6%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU27 (#22 G.Godfrey; #91 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
61.2%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 I.Horton caught at TAMU33, for 6 yards to the TAMU33 (#0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
61.0%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 0 yards to the TAMU33 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+49
58.7%
(09:24) #37 T.White punt 49 yards to the UK18 #12 B.Coffman return for loss of 1 yard to the UK17 (#19 B.Rogers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:1542% → 75%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
57.7%
(09:18) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #7 D.Miller caught at UK19, for 4 yards to the UK21 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
56.9%
(08:41) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK23 (#14 A.Saka; #7 D.Brooks)Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+22
55.2%
(08:01) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #19 K.Darby caught at UK27, for 22 yards to the UK45 (#9 R.Gibson III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
51.1%
PENALTY UK False Start (#7 D.Miller) 5 yards from UK45 to UK40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+22
52.0%
(06:51) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 22 yards gain to the TAMU38 (#19 B.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
48.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 14 yards gain to the TAMU24 (#2 D.Ricks; #3 M.Ratcliffe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
46.6%
(05:28) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush left for 3 yards gain to the TAMU21, out of bounds at TAMU21Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+8
45.3%
(04:54) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at TAMU22, for 8 yards to the TAMU13 (#21 R.Coney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
44.8%
(04:31) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at TAMU15, for 10 yards to the TAMU03 (#10 M.Jones; #6 J.Humphrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.1%
(03:58) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:55 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2931% → 29%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.1%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep middle to #1 M.Craver thrown to UK30 broken up by #20 T.NicholsSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.5%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU28, for 7 yards to the TAMU32 (#22 G.Godfrey; #6 A.Breaux)Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
30.9%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 1 yard gain to the TAMU33 (#6 A.Breaux; #94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.0%
(02:22) No Huddle #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Baker thrown to TAMU34, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:4478% → 95%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
22.4%
(02:16) #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #7 D.Miller caught at TAMU19, for 14 yards to the TAMU19 (#9 R.Gibson III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
21.4%
(01:42) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU13 (#5 D.Hicks; #14 A.Saka)Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+11
20.5%
(01:03) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TAMU02 (#6 J.Humphrey; #7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.5%
(00:18) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:16 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:339% → 24%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #7 I.Horton thrown to TAMU27 QB hurried by #0 B.Barnes PENALTY TAMU Illegal Motion declinedSimilar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.4%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #4 R.Owens II caught at TAMU28, for 4 yards to the TAMU29 (#13 C.Reyes)Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
8.0%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU35, for 18 yards to the TAMU47 (#5 J.Castell; #20 T.Nichols), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
8.2%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Craver thrown to UK35Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
8.0%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at UK39, for 14 yards to the UK39 (#12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
7.4%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #11 K.Johnson caught at UK30, for 9 yards to the UK30 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+14
7.8%
(13:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at UK16, for 14 yards to the UK16 (#12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.0%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Craver thrown to UK01 QB hurried by #0 B.BarnesSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
6.9%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UK07 (#13 C.Reyes; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
6.5%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK03 (#5 J.Castell; #97 T.Thomas), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UK Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.7%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #7 I.Horton thrown to UK00 broken up by #5 J.CastellSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
8.9%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UK05 (#94 T.Gadson; #2 S.Greene)Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.6%
(11:43) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 5 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:37 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0789% → 94%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.8%
(11:36) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK27 (#21 R.Coney; #0 N.Mikhail)Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
9.7%
(10:52) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #87 H.Boyer caught at UK45, for 32 yards to the TAMU41 (#7 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
8.3%
(10:24) #8 M.Skinner rush right for 0 yards to the TAMU41 (#0 N.Mikhail; #10 M.Jones)Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
7.5%
(09:45) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TAMU34 (#27 D.Sanford; #18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
7.2%
(09:09) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush right for 0 yards to the TAMU34 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
5.8%
(08:26) #88 A.Zouagui field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti), clock 08:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:488% → 8%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.6%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#52 B.Ivy) 5 yards from TAMU25 to TAMU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
7.4%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #87 H.Thomas caught at TAMU22, for 2 yards to the TAMU22, out of bounds at TAMU22Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
7.0%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 0 yards to the TAMU22, out of bounds at TAMU22Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
6.8%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep middle to #3 A.Gregory thrown to UK42 broken up by #27 I.McMillianSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+40
6.5%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 40 yards gain to the UK38 (#12 H.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.6%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #7 I.Horton thrown to UK20Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
7.5%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #81 J.Warren caught at UK27, for 11 yards to the UK27 (#27 I.McMillian; #22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UK Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
8.3%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #5 J.Castell at UK07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
4.4%
(06:32) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK08 (#21 R.Coney; #25 T.Watkins)Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
3.9%
(05:50) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK10 (#0 N.Mikhail; #11 B.Davis-Swain)Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+2
3.9%
(05:46) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK12 (#99 L.Rink; #11 B.Davis-Swain)Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
3.6%
(05:40) #48 T.O'Hara punt 41 yards to the TAMU47 fair catch by #1 M.Craver at TAMU47 PENALTY UK Kick Catch Interference (#27 I.McMillian) 15 yards from TAMU47 to UK38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:404% → 14%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
3.9%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at UK38, for 6 yards to the UK32 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
4.3%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep left to #7 I.Horton thrown to UK08Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
4.1%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep left to #3 A.Gregory thrown to UK12Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+17
3.6%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at UK23, for 17 yards to the UK15 (#14 T.Bryant; #0 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
3.9%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #4 R.Owens II caught at UK15, for 5 yards to the UK10 (#22 G.Godfrey; #0 B.Barnes) PENALTY UK Face Mask (#0 B.Barnes) 5 yards from UK10 to UK05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
4.4%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 0 yards to the UK05 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.6%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #88 M.Riley caught at UK00, for 5 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:45 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:4292% → 96%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
7.6%
(03:43) #1 C.Baxter rush left for 3 yards gain to the TAMU45 (#18 T.Searcy; #21 R.Coney)Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
6.4%
(03:38) #1 C.Baxter rush left for 1 yard loss to the TAMU46 (#99 L.Rink)Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+1
4.9%
(02:55) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush left for 1 yard gain to the TAMU45 (#17 R.Henderson; #6 J.Humphrey)Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+5
4.8%
PENALTY UK Delay Of Game 5 yards from TAMU45 to TAMU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 12
50
0
4.0%
(02:06) #48 T.O'Hara punt 45 yards to the TAMU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:574% → 3%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
3.6%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep middle to #1 M.Craver thrown to TAMU37 broken up by #22 G.GodfreySimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
3.5%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #1 M.Craver thrown to TAMU09Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+26
3.2%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 26 yards gain to the TAMU31 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.5%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #1 M.Craver thrown to TAMU47 broken up by #14 T.BryantSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
3.3%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #87 H.Thomas thrown to TAMU34 QB hurried by #91 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
3.1%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#52 B.Ivy) 5 yards from TAMU31 to TAMU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+1
3.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU27 (#91 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
2.8%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep middle to #1 M.Craver thrown to UK49 broken up by #9 A.Afari Jr., TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1698% → 98%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
1.7%
(00:53) Kneel down by #3 K.Minchey at TAMU27 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
2.0%
(00:32) Kneel down by #3 K.Minchey at TAMU28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:37
(11:43) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 5 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:37 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)
+20.4
TD · Q3 3:55
(03:58) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:55 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)
-19.7
TD · Q3 11:07
(11:16) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep right to #19 K.Darby caught at TAMU19, for 42 yards to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com