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UNM

New Mexico 6 at Oklahoma 14

OU
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:52 · (09:58) #19 M.Kern punt 37 yards to the OU30 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+21.9Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:05: (08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UNM08, for 53 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson) — OU win probability +8.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:53: (02:56) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU19 (#94 J.Mciver) — OU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:44: (02:53) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU25, for 6 yards to the OU25 (#38 J.Flaker) — OU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:54: Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:54 — UNM win probability +6.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47: (01:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 9 yards to the OU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN — OU win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:06UNM 4th & 14 at OU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55OU 4th & 9 at OU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33UNM 4th & 17 at UNM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35UNM 4th & 11 at OU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44UNM 4th & 6 at OU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:44OU 4th & 2 at OU 13, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00UNM 4th & 5 at OU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:48UNM 4th & 24 at OU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03OU 4th & 1 at UNM 23, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%−1.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:22UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.7%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:52UNM 4th & 29 at UNM 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30UNM 4th & 19 at OU 49, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:49OU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:13UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:39OU 4th & 22 at OU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:57UNM 4th & 2 at OU 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−7.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:49OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:05OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0992% → 92%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU26 (#0 A.Brawley; #10 D.Agu)Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
92.3%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU27 (#7 T.Combs; #10 D.Agu)Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.1%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #7 T.Combs at OU37 QB hurried by #15 X.Slayton, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:298% → 9%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
92.1%
(13:41) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU36 (#65 J.Jackson; #0 D.Stone)Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-3
91.8%
(13:01) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 3 yards to the OU39 (#34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+5
91.7%
PENALTY UNM Delay Of Game (#13 T.Fa'avae) 5 yards from OU39 to OU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+3
91.6%
(11:52) Shotgun #8 D.Buchanan rush left for 3 yards gain to the OU41 (#47 J.Nesta; #4 C.Guillory)Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
91.5%
(11:12) #19 M.Kern punt 36 yards to the OU05, out of bounds at OU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0591% → 90%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
91.4%
(11:05) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU09 (#12 D.Speech; #0 A.Brawley)Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
91.3%
(10:47) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #14 E.Thomas caught at OU06, for 1 yard to the OU10 (#3 C.McBean; #8 O.Arnold), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+11
91.1%
(10:12) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU20, for 11 yards to the OU21 (#0 A.Brawley; #12 D.Speech), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
91.1%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush right for 2 yards loss to the OU19 (#6 J.Eck; #5 F.Edwards)Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-4
90.9%
(09:17) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 4 yards loss to the OU15 (#10 D.Agu; #38 J.Flaker)Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+7
90.6%
(08:43) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #21 X.Robinson caught at OU10, for 7 yards to the OU22 (#7 T.Combs), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
90.3%
(08:04) #43 G.Miller punt 45 yards to the UNM33, out of bounds at UNM33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1910% → 10%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.4%
(07:55) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short middle to #5 T.Omeire thrown to UNM40Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
90.4%
(07:51) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 19 yards gain to the OU48 (#47 J.Nesta) PENALTY UNM Holding (#51 M.Aliane) 10 yards from UNM33 to UNM23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 20
OWN 23
0
90.3%
(07:29) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short right to #21 K.Sibley thrown to UNM18 QB hurried by #16 D.OkoyeSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+3
90.4%
(07:23) Shotgun #8 D.Buchanan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM26 (#0 D.Stone; #16 D.Okoye)Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 17
OWN 26
-2
90.3%
(06:43) #19 M.Kern punt 33 yards to the OU41 muffed by #1 I.Sategna III at OU41 recovered by UNM #9 E.McClain at OU39, End Of Play PENALTY OU Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5210% → 10%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.7%
(06:30) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short left to #81 B.George thrown to OU48 broken up by #22 P.BowenSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
89.6%
(06:26) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU40 (#90 T.Wilson; #22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
89.6%
(05:46) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short right to #0 M.Williams thrown to OU27 QB hurried by #44 T.WeinSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
89.8%
(05:40) #19 M.Kern punt 40 yards to the OU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:3890% → 90%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.7%
(05:34) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush right for 6 yards gain to the OU26 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
89.7%
(05:15) PENALTY OU False Start (#14 E.Thomas) 5 yards from OU26 to OU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
89.5%
(05:01) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU23 (#2 M.Swaim; #10 D.Agu)Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
89.1%
(04:19) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU34, for 14 yards to the OU37 (#0 A.Brawley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.3%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 5 yards gain to the OU42 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
89.3%
(03:15) #9 L.Avant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU43 (#38 J.Flaker)Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
89.0%
(02:34) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 7 yards gain to the OU50 (#0 A.Brawley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
50
+5
89.1%
(01:55) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #3 P.Livingstone caught at UNM45, for 5 yards to the UNM45, out of bounds at UNM45 PENALTY OU False Start (#76 E.Harris) 5 yards from OU50 to OU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+11
88.7%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #3 P.Livingstone caught at UNM49, for 11 yards to the UNM44 (#38 J.Flaker; #5 F.Edwards)Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
88.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNM40 (#0 A.Brawley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
88.8%
(00:33) #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UNM45 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+4
88.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM41 (#7 T.Combs; #1 J.Torres)Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+12
87.8%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #89 H.Hansen caught at UNM29, for 12 yards to the UNM29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
90.4%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #89 H.Hansen caught at UNM17, for 29 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:49, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5810% → 11%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.6%
(13:48) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNM32 (#4 C.Guillory; #13 N.Jandreau), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
89.1%
(13:07) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNM34 (#3 R.Powers III; #42 W.Gilmore)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.1%
(12:22) #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM37 (#38 O.Heinecke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
88.9%
(11:50) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #81 B.George caught at OU49, for 14 yards to the OU49 (#23 E.Bowen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.3%
(11:11) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 0 yards to the OU49 (#44 T.Wein; #65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
88.4%
(10:32) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #81 B.George caught at OU46, for 4 yards to the OU45 (#13 N.Jandreau), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
88.2%
(09:55) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short left to #0 M.Williams thrown to OU40 broken up by #22 P.BowenSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
88.8%
(09:48) #19 M.Kern punt 40 yards to the OU05 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5489% → 88%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
89.0%
(09:42) #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 4 yards loss to the OU01 (#3 C.McBean)Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+4
88.8%
(09:11) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OU05 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+8
88.4%
(08:31) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #21 X.Robinson caught at OU00, for 8 yards to the OU13 (#7 T.Combs; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
88.3%
(07:47) #43 G.Miller punt 45 yards to the UNM42 fair catch by #16 M.Beltran, Jr. at UNM42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:3112% → 16%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+40
88.1%
(07:43) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete deep middle to #88 C.Keith caught at OU30, for 40 yards to the OU18 (#5 M.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.8%
(06:58) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 0 yards to the OU18 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
86.7%
(06:17) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 10 yards gain to the OU08 (#47 J.Nesta), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
86.3%
(05:31) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU07 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
86.1%
(04:48) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU05 (#23 E.Bowen; #47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.6%
(04:07) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short left to #5 T.Omeire thrown to OU00 broken up by #47 J.NestaSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
84.2%
(04:00) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 04:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4085% → 85%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
85.4%
(03:54) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU30 (#3 C.McBean)Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
85.4%
(03:21) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep middle to #14 E.Thomas thrown to UNM25Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-11
84.7%
(03:15) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #5 F.Edwards at OU33 QB hurried by #5 F.Edwards #5 F.Edwards return 11 yards to the OU22 (#3 R.Powers III), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
9 plays · -2 yds · 1:1618% → 17%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
82.2%
(03:06) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein pass incomplete short right thrown to OU17 QB hurried by #16 D.Okoye and #47 J.NestaSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
82.3%
(03:04) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at OU20, for 13 yards to the OU09 (#2 O.Robinson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OU Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.0%
(02:37) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 0 yards to the OU09 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
82.5%
PENALTY UNM False Start (#58 J.Tasi) 5 yards from OU09 to OU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
83.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU15 (#0 D.Stone; #8 B.Thomas)Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
84.2%
(01:55) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OU24 (#0 D.Stone, #34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 24
+42
83.2%
(01:51) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 01:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 1:3584% → 84%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
83.6%
(01:42) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #14 E.Thomas caught at OU33, for 8 yards to the OU34, out of bounds at OU34Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
84.3%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU41, for 8 yards to the OU42 (#0 A.Brawley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
84.5%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #88 J.Van Dorselaer thrown to OU46 QB hurried by #36 A.TuakalauSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
83.8%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 6 yards gain to the OU48 (#20 K.Longstreet)Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
84.0%
(01:08) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #21 X.Robinson caught at OU45, for 3 yards to the UNM49 (#6 J.Eck), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
83.6%
PENALTY UNM Offside 5 yards from UNM49 to UNM44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.9%
(01:01) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #17 M.Alleyne thrown to UNM38 broken up by #3 C.McBeanSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
84.7%
(00:57) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at UNM35, for 12 yards to the UNM32 (#3 C.McBean), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
85.3%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNM23 (#0 A.Brawley; #15 X.Slayton)Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
85.1%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM23 (#20 K.Longstreet)Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
84.2%
(00:03) No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
83.5%
(00:00) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 8 yds · 4:5918% → 19%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM25, for 10 yards to the UNM35 (#3 R.Powers III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
81.6%
(14:25) Shotgun #8 D.Buchanan rush left for 6 yards gain to the UNM41 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
80.0%
(13:49) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM42 (#0 D.Stone; #34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
79.8%
(13:11) Shotgun #10 L.Moga rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNM44 (#47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
80.3%
(12:26) #21 K.Sibley rush left for 8 yards gain to the OU48 (#38 O.Heinecke; #34 A.Adebawore), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-13
78.5%
(11:55) Shotgun #10 L.Moga sacked for loss of 13 yards to the UNM39 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 23
OWN 39
+10
80.1%
(11:13) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short middle to #5 T.Omeire caught at UNM45, for 9 yards to the UNM48 (#23 E.Bowen) PENALTY UNM Holding (#58 J.Tasi) 10 yards from UNM39 to UNM29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 33
OWN 29
+9
80.6%
(10:50) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM31, for 9 yards to the UNM38 (#38 O.Heinecke; #23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 24
OWN 38
0
80.1%
(10:03) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Omeire thrown to UNM47Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 24
OWN 38
+5
81.2%
(09:57) PENALTY UNM False Start 5 yards from UNM38 to UNM33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 29
OWN 33
0
81.4%
(09:58) #19 M.Kern punt 37 yards to the OU30 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:4180% → 89%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
80.4%
(09:51) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 0 yards to the OU30 (#92 B.Booker)Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.9%
(09:28) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #3 P.Livingstone caught at OU35, for 9 yards to the OU39 (#12 D.Speech), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
80.9%
(09:02) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 6 yards gain to the OU45 (#20 K.Longstreet), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
81.4%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush right for 2 yards gain to the OU47 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
89.4%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UNM08, for 53 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 5:2713% → 11%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.3%
(08:04) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM26 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
87.2%
(07:22) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short right to #21 K.Sibley caught at UNM40, for 20 yards to the UNM46 (#47 J.Nesta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.3%
(06:36) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM49 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
85.9%
(05:57) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at OU46, for 6 yards to the OU45 (#22 P.Bowen; #21 J.Newcombe)Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
85.5%
PENALTY OU Offside (#8 B.Thomas) 5 yards from OU45 to OU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
85.9%
(04:57) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OU49 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 19
OPP 0
0
84.8%
(04:14) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OU43 (#44 T.Wein; #38 O.Heinecke) PENALTY UNM Holding offsetting OU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
87.0%
(03:45) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short right to #14 D.Darling thrown to OU43Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+10
87.7%
(03:42) Shotgun #8 D.Buchanan rush left for 11 yards gain to the OU38 (#4 C.Guillory), out of bounds PENALTY UNM Holding (#71 D.Newell) 10 yards from OU49 to UNM41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 29
OWN 41
+10
89.0%
(03:17) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 10 yards gain to the OU49 (#3 R.Powers III; #5 M.Ford)Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
89.4%
(02:37) #19 M.Kern punt 32 yards to the OU17 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3490% → 90%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
90.0%
(02:29) #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU21 (#3 C.McBean)Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
90.1%
(01:56) Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the OU21 (#18 C.Martineau)Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+22
89.5%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at OU28, for 22 yards to the OU43 (#8 O.Arnold; #38 J.Flaker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
91.2%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #89 H.Hansen caught at OU40, for 8 yards to the UNM49 (#18 C.Martineau)Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-1
91.4%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Hatton Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNM50 (#3 C.McBean)Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
50
0
90.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UNM42 broken up by #8 O.ArnoldSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 3
50
0
90.0%
(14:55) #43 G.Miller punt 35 yards to the UNM15 fair catch by #16 M.Beltran, Jr. at UNM15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3011% → 10%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
89.1%
(14:47) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNM19 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
89.0%
(14:05) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM20 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
89.6%
(13:24) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete deep right to #5 T.Omeire thrown to UNM40Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
90.1%
(13:17) #19 M.Kern punt 33 yards to the OU47 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:3492% → 89%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
91.5%
PENALTY OU False Start (#77 H.Ozaeta) 5 yards from OU47 to OU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+3
91.1%
(13:09) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU45 (#2 M.Swaim; #45 B.Karhu)Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
91.1%
(12:38) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 2 yards loss to the OU43 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+10
90.3%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OU50 (#6 J.Eck; #20 K.Longstreet) PENALTY OU Holding (#55 D.Saili) 10 yards from OU43 to OU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 24
OWN 33
+7
89.2%
(11:41) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #20 J.Hatton Jr. caught at OU28, for 7 yards to the OU40 (#0 A.Brawley; #20 K.Longstreet)Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+5
89.8%
(10:53) PENALTY OU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OU40 to OU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 22
OWN 35
+8
89.4%
(10:50) #43 G.Miller punt 38 yards to the UNM27 #16 M.Beltran, Jr. return 8 yards to the UNM35 (#50 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 47 yds · 7:3512% → 11%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
88.3%
(10:39) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UNM31 (#24 J.Johnson) PENALTY UNM Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+3
89.1%
(10:14) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM34 (#38 O.Heinecke), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+13
90.6%
(09:31) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNM47 (#2 O.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
87.6%
(08:48) PENALTY UNM False Start 5 yards from UNM47 to UNM42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
89.6%
(08:27) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNM44 (#22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-8
89.3%
(07:40) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UNM36 (#22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 21
OWN 36
+22
90.8%
(06:56) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush middle for 22 yards gain to the OU42 (#24 J.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
87.6%
(06:10) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU38 (#44 T.Wein; #2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-2
86.8%
(05:29) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 2 yards loss to the OU40 (#38 O.Heinecke; #23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
89.7%
(04:40) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete deep left to #5 T.Omeire thrown to OU10 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (#23 E.Bowen) OU Offside declined 15 yards from OU40 to OU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
87.4%
(04:37) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 3 yards gain to the OU22 (#44 T.Wein)Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
87.3%
(03:54) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete deep left to #5 T.Omeire thrown to OU00Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
89.0%
(03:48) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 5 yards gain to the OU17 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-1
89.4%
(03:02) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU18 (#0 D.Stone), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20END OF GAME
12 plays · 22 yds · 2:2096% → 98%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
95.9%
(02:56) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU19 (#94 J.Mciver)Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
96.1%
(02:53) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU25, for 6 yards to the OU25 (#38 J.Flaker)Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
96.2%
(02:08) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU28 (#45 B.Karhu; #2 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
96.4%
(01:57) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OU33 (#6 J.Eck; #7 T.Combs)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
97.4%
(01:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 9 yards to the OU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
97.5%
(01:15) Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at OU41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
97.5%
(00:33) Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at OU40 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:05
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UNM08, for 53 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
+8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47
(01:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 9 yards to the OU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
+7.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:53
(02:56) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU19 (#94 J.Mciver)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com