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Oklahoma 10 at Michigan 17

MICH
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:12 · (02:16) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to UOM41, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+17.7Pregame prior−0.4Garbage-time factor+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Score differential+3.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:30: (08:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #17 M.Alleyne caught at UOM00, for 22 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson) — OU win probability +17.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q4 11:49: (11:51) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson), clock 11:49 — OU win probability +11.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:32: (08:40) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 5 yards gain to the OU 01 (#3 R.Powers III) — MICH win probability +10.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:53: (07:56) #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford) — MICH win probability +25.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 3:05: (03:13) #33 C.Brown punt 43 yards to the OU 48 #1 I.Sategna III return 12 yards to the UOM40 (#0 K.Bell) PENALTY OU Holding (#0 M.Choice) 10 yards from UOM40 to UOM50 — MICH win probability +6.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:31OU 4th & 12 at OU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21MICH 4th & 15 at OU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:27OU 4th & 11 at OU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:40MICH 4th & 10 at OU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:36OU 4th & 7 at OU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:28MICH 4th & 14 at OU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12OU 4th & 9 at MICH 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:22MICH 4th & 19 at OU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−3.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:49OU 4th & 5 at MICH 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−2.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−13.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:36MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:43OU 4th & 11 at OU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 9, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:12OU 4th & 7 at MICH 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:06MICH 4th & 4 at OU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:47MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:30OU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:53MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2161% → 60%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OU 33 (#44 N.Staehling; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
38.9%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 39, for 7 yards to the OU 40 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
39.0%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Sategna III rush left for 7 yards gain to the OU 47 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
39.1%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UOM40Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-9
39.1%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OU 38 (#90 J.Daley)Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
39.7%
(12:36) #43 G.Miller punt 40 yards to the UOM22 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:0440% → 41%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
39.6%
(12:31) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM25 (#25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
39.8%
(11:52) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UOM23 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+8
39.8%
(11:15) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Marsh thrown to UOM33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OU Pass Interference (#4 C.Guillory) 8 yards from UOM23 to UOM31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
40.1%
(11:12) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM32 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 9
OPP 0
+3
40.9%
(10:34) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 3 yards gain to the UOM35 (#25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
40.3%
(10:14) Shotgun #3 A.Marsh rush left for 15 yards gain to the UOM50 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
50
+12
41.1%
(09:52) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at OU 40, for 12 yards to the OU 38 (#25 M.Boganowski), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
41.4%
(09:18) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 18 yards gain to the OU 20 (#4 C.Guillory) PENALTY UOM Holding (#53 J.Guarnera) 10 yards from OU 38 to OU 48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+2
41.1%
(08:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 2 yards gain to the OU 46 (#25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
41.3%
(08:12) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #3 A.Marsh thrown to OU 45Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+3
41.0%
(08:07) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 43 (#8 B.Thomas; #38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
40.8%
(07:26) #33 C.Brown punt 31 yards to the OU 12 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:4759% → 58%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
41.1%
(07:19) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OU 18 (#18 T.Bowles; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
41.3%
(06:45) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep left to #11 T.Harris thrown to OU 44Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
41.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep middle to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to OU 38Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+5
42.0%
(06:37) #43 G.Miller punt 82 yards to the UOM00, Touchback PENALTY UOM Running Into The Kicker (#0 K.Bell) 5 yards from OU 18 to OU 23. NO PLAY. UOM is challenging the ruling on the field - "". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
41.4%
(06:26) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 6 yards gain to the OU 29 (#10 Z.Berry), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
41.3%
(05:51) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 28, for 0 yards to the OU 29 (#12 N.Owusu-Boateng)Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
41.7%
(05:42) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 12 yards gain to the OU 41 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
41.1%
(05:05) Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU 40 (#90 J.Daley; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
41.6%
(04:39) #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #89 H.Hansen thrown to OU 38Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
42.0%
(04:37) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to OU 45Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
42.5%
(04:32) #43 G.Miller punt 51 yards to the UOM09 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:3242% → 50%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
42.0%
(04:26) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM12 (#4 C.Guillory; #55 D.Saili)Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
42.3%
(03:38) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM17 (#10 K.Lewis) PENALTY UOM Illegal Motion (#3 A.Marsh) 5 yards from UOM12 to UOM07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+7
42.4%
(03:22) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #5 S.Hiter caught at UOM08, for 7 yards to the UOM14 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+5
42.1%
PENALTY UOM False Start (#77 B.Frazier) 5 yards from UOM14 to UOM09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+36
42.3%
(02:23) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at UOM20, for 36 yards to the UOM45 (#44 T.Wein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
44.5%
(01:45) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM48 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+14
44.8%
(01:04) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep middle to #3 A.Marsh thrown to OU 10 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (#4 C.Guillory) 14 yards from UOM48 to OU 38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.2%
(00:58) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to OU 26 broken up by #22 P.BowenSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
50.1%
(00:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 38 yards gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:47, 1ST DOWN #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:0452% → 53%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
48.5%
(00:47) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at OU 36, for 11 yards to the OU 36 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.2%
(00:16) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 38 (#0 J.Hill; #90 J.Daley)Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+16
48.2%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 45, for 16 yards to the UOM46 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
47.8%
(14:21) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush right for 11 yards gain to the UOM35 (#7 C.Bracy; #18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
47.4%
(13:37) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UOM35 QB hurried by #8 D.Nichols. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
47.4%
(13:32) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #3 P.Livingstone caught at UOM38, for 8 yards to the UOM27 fumbled by #3 P.Livingstone at UOM26 forced by #7 C.Bracy recovered by UOM #18 T.Bowles at UOM27 #18 T.Bowles return 2 yards to the UOM29 (#14 E.Thomas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:3651% → 54%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
50.8%
(13:22) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UOM25 (#44 T.Wein; #0 D.Stone)Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+15
51.0%
(12:39) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #5 S.Hiter caught at UOM22, for 15 yards to the UOM40 (#22 P.Bowen; #2 O.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
53.3%
(11:55) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM43 fumbled by #19 B.Underwood at UOM40 forced by #44 T.Wein recovered by UOM #19 B.Underwood at UOM43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
53.8%
(11:05) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 2 yards gain to the UOM45 (#38 O.Heinecke; #22 P.Bowen) PENALTY OU Personal Foul (#44 T.Wein) 15 yards from UOM45 to OU 40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.4%
(10:42) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to OU 30 broken up by #23 E.BowenSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
54.4%
(10:36) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 38 (#47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-2
54.8%
(09:56) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush right for 2 yards loss to the OU 40 fumbled by #5 S.Hiter at OU 40 recovered by UOM #5 S.Hiter at OU 40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
53.5%
(08:47) #33 C.Brown punt 39 yards to the OU 01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5946% → 43%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
54.1%
(08:38) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to OU 20Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
54.3%
(08:35) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 04 (#91 J.Lea'ea; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
56.1%
(07:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to OU 21Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
56.8%
(07:47) #43 G.Miller punt 52 yards to the UOM44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5958% → 62%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
57.7%
(07:37) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at UOM40, for 5 yards loss to the UOM39 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+19
57.0%
(06:56) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #5 S.Hiter caught at OU 42, for 19 yards to the OU 42, out of bounds at OU 42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.0%
(06:23) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to OU 20. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
58.9%
(06:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at OU 44, for 12 yards to the OU 30 (#25 M.Boganowski; #38 O.Heinecke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
59.8%
(05:37) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 27 (#23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
60.2%
(05:06) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 25 (#38 O.Heinecke; #22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+7
59.9%
(04:23) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OU 18 (#55 D.Saili), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
61.2%
(03:45) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush right for 3 yards gain to the OU 15 (#38 O.Heinecke) PENALTY UOM Holding (#55 N.Efobi) 10 yards from OU 18 to OU 28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
61.4%
(03:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to OU 10Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+6
60.9%
(03:13) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 6 yards gain to the OU 22 (#47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
59.8%
(02:33) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to OU 22 broken up by #3 R.Powers IIISimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+40
61.7%
(02:30) #99 T.Butkowski field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford), clock 02:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 2:0437% → 34%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.7%
(02:26) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU 24 (#90 J.Daley; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
64.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OU 32 (#90 J.Daley)Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
65.0%
(01:21) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 7 yards gain to the OU 39 (#95 T.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
64.3%
(01:11) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #9 L.Avant caught at OU 41, for 7 yards to the OU 46 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
63.3%
(00:48) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 6 yards gain to the UOM48 (#0 J.Hill; #90 J.Daley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
62.6%
(00:39) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #9 L.Avant caught at UOM46, for 3 yards to the UOM45 QB hurried by #99 B.Kanka (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
62.2%
(00:29) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #21 X.Robinson thrown to OU 50Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-2
63.9%
(00:26) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UOM47 (#94 N.Marshall; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
66.3%
(00:19) #43 G.Miller punt 38 yards to the UOM09 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
66.2%
(00:14) Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush right for 4 yards gain to the UOM13 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2166% → 66%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UOM32 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
67.2%
(14:23) Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM33 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
66.8%
(13:43) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to UOM50 broken up by #4 C.GuillorySimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
65.8%
(13:36) #33 C.Brown punt 48 yards to the OU 19 fair catch by #1 I.Sategna III at OU 19 PENALTY OU Holding (#33 L.Bauer) 9 yards from OU 19 to OU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:5033% → 50%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
67.5%
(13:29) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at OU 11, for 3 yards to the OU 13 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-1
68.3%
(12:54) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush left for 1 yard loss to the OU 12 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+25
70.0%
(12:14) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 26, for 25 yards to the OU 37 (#4 C.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.9%
(11:38) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 0 yards to the OU 37 (#91 J.Lea'ea; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
68.6%
(11:01) Shotgun #1 I.Sategna III rush right for 9 yards gain to the OU 46 (#7 C.Bracy) PENALTY OU Illegal Motion (#1 I.Sategna III) 5 yards from OU 37 to OU 32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+17
70.1%
(10:28) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at OU 40, for 17 yards to the OU 49 (#4 C.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
68.5%
(09:47) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #11 T.Harris caught at OU 47, for 10 yards to the UOM41 (#0 J.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UOM Face Mask (#2 S.Earls) 15 yards from UOM41 to UOM26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
66.8%
(09:15) Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UOM22 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
49.8%
(08:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #17 M.Alleyne caught at UOM00, for 22 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
16 plays · 33 yds · 7:0157% → 58%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
57.2%
PENALTY UOM False Start (#55 N.Efobi) 5 yards from UOM24 to UOM19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
56.9%
(08:22) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at UOM16, for 6 yards to the UOM25 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
57.2%
(07:52) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush right for 5 yards gain to the UOM30 (#2 O.Robinson; #47 J.Nesta)Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
56.9%
(07:15) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM33 (#44 T.Wein)Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
56.8%
(06:36) #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM36 (#0 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
59.7%
(05:52) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 15 yards gain to the OU 49 (#22 P.Bowen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
62.6%
(05:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OU 42 (#2 O.Robinson; #8 B.Thomas)Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
62.5%
(04:20) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #18 M.Bonner thrown to OU 20Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+8
61.7%
(04:12) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OU 34 (#65 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
64.1%
(03:30) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 33 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
64.3%
(02:55) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 2 yards gain to the OU 31 (#8 B.Thomas)Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-7
63.0%
(02:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 7 yards to the OU 38 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 14
OPP 38
+5
57.5%
PENALTY UOM Delay Of Game (#33 C.Brown) 5 yards from OU 38 to OU 43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
57.5%
(01:30) #33 C.Brown punt 42 yards to the OU 01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:3340% → 54%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
60.5%
(01:20) PENALTY OU False Start (#70 R.Fodje). NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
60.6%
(01:20) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 02 (#18 T.Bowles) PENALTY UOM Personal Foul (#0 J.Hill) 15 yards from OU 02 to OU 17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
59.9%
(00:53) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #81 R.Beers caught at OU 25, for 43 yards to the UOM40 (#0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
54.4%
(00:06) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at UOM43, for 5 yards to the UOM35 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-1
52.2%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UOM36 (#90 J.Daley)Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+15
56.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UOM45 (#8 D.Nichols) PENALTY UOM Face Mask (#8 D.Nichols) 15 yards from UOM36 to UOM21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
53.8%
(13:45) #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UOM25 (#4 C.Taylor, #8 D.Nichols) PENALTY OU Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+3
57.5%
(13:18) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at UOM24, for 3 yards to the UOM22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+6
57.6%
(12:33) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #1 I.Sategna III caught at UOM24, for 6 yards to the UOM16 (#0 J.Hill)Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
46.5%
(11:51) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson), clock 11:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0453% → 51%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.4%
(11:47) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 1 yard loss to the UOM24 (#65 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
53.1%
(11:06) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #42 J.Hoffman caught at UOM30, for 9 yards to the UOM33 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
54.1%
(10:26) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UOM29 (#44 T.Wein)Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
50.5%
(09:44) #33 C.Brown punt 51 yards to the OU 20 #1 I.Sategna III return for loss of 5 yards to the OU 15 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4750% → 47%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
49.9%
(09:34) Shotgun #1 I.Sategna III rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU 16 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
50.6%
(08:52) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep right to #11 T.Harris thrown to OU 40Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-24
52.9%
(08:49) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #0 J.Hill at OU 30 #0 J.Hill return 24 yards to the OU 06 (#10 J.Mateer), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3963% → 88%
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
62.9%
(08:40) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 5 yards gain to the OU 01 (#3 R.Powers III)Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
(07:56) #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:0318% → 12%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.9%
(07:53) Shotgun #1 I.Sategna III rush right for 3 yards gain to the OU 28 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
83.1%
(07:18) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 10 yards gain to the OU 38 (#4 C.Taylor; #17 E.Etta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
83.4%
(06:36) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU 40 (#1 R.Moore; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
83.7%
(05:57) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep left to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UOM35Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
84.9%
(05:53) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 9 yards gain to the OU 49 (#18 T.Bowles) PENALTY OU Holding (#55 E.Pierre-Louis) 10 yards from OU 40 to OU 30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+7
87.6%
(05:26) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 7 yards gain to the OU 37 (#18 T.Bowles; #10 Z.Berry) PENALTY OU Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
88.5%
(04:50) #43 G.Miller punt 62 yards to the UOM01 PENALTY UOM Blocking Out Of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3190% → 93%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
89.7%
(04:41) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM04 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
91.9%
(03:59) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM06 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+3
92.2%
(03:21) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM09 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+12
92.6%
(03:13) #33 C.Brown punt 43 yards to the OU 48 #1 I.Sategna III return 12 yards to the UOM40 (#0 K.Bell) PENALTY OU Holding (#0 M.Choice) 10 yards from UOM40 to UOM50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4613% → 10%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
87.1%
(03:02) Shotgun #21 X.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the UOM47 (#90 J.Daley)Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
86.8%
(02:24) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UOM40Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
87.7%
(02:19) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #1 I.Sategna III thrown to UOM40Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
90.3%
(02:16) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to UOM41, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5996% → 96%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
95.5%
(02:10) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 2 yards gain to the UOM49 (#65 J.Jackson; #18 C.Sullivan)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
95.9%
(02:03) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU 47 (#2 O.Robinson)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
95.7%
(01:55) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 0 yards to the OU 47 (#22 P.Bowen; #44 T.Wein)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+10
96.3%
(01:14) #33 C.Brown punt 42 yards to the OU 05 #1 I.Sategna III return 10 yards to the OU 15 (#7 C.Bracy), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:427% → 7%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
92.8%
(01:04) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 22 yards gain to the OU 37, out of bounds at OU 37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.2%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #9 L.Avant caught at OU 38, for 3 yards to the OU 40 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
92.0%
PENALTY OU False Start (#76 E.Harris) 5 yards from OU 40 to OU 35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
93.2%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep right to #81 R.Beers thrown to UOM38 broken up by #4 C.TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-10
93.5%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 10 yards to the OU 25 (#94 N.Marshall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:53
(07:56) #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)
+25.4
TD · Q3 8:30
(08:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #17 M.Alleyne caught at UOM00, for 22 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
-17
FG · Q4 11:49
(11:51) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson), clock 11:49
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com