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ALA

Alabama 45 at Kentucky 17

UK
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.7UK 45.6%(07:13) #31 C.Talty field goal attemptfrom 34 yards GOOD (H: #32A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock07:10AWAY 16 - HOME 17 · Q3 7:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:10 · (07:13) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock 07:10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior−11.4Home team on offense−0.9Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:35: (06:44) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass intercepted by #4 L.Metz at UK34 #4 L.Metz return 34 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:35 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +3.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: (15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #87 H.Boyer caught at ALA03, for 20 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +4.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:00: (03:03) #13 E.Crowell rush left for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:00 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +21.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:24: (00:28) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #3 L.Brooks pass attempt Successful — ALA win probability +20.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:08: (09:11) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #7 R.Scott caught at UK00, for 5 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:08 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:03UK 4th & 6 at ALA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:38UK 4th & 1 at ALA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:27ALA 4th & 7 at UK 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−4.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22UK 4th & 11 at UK 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:09ALA 4th & 3 at UK 23, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:05UK 4th & 8 at UK 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:29UK 4th & 7 at ALA 43, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%
    28% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UK 4th & 2 at ALA 21, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:58UK 4th & 16 at UK 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:34ALA 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:10ALA 4th & 4 at UK 16, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−8.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:49UK 4th & 3 at UK 32, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:11UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:22UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:05UK 4th & 4 at UK 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:11UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:35ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:00ALA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:24ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:08ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:11ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:4623% → 25%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #4 N.Anderson caught at UK27, for 13 yards to the UK38 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
22.9%
(14:17) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #1 C.Baxter caught at UK41, for 9 yards to the UK47 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
23.3%
(13:37) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA48 (#6 R.Morgan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
23.8%
(12:57) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UK48 (#7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+2
23.9%
(12:17) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush left for 2 yards gain to the UK50 (#9 D.Umeozulu; #6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 12
50
+6
24.2%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at ALA44, for 6 yards to the ALA44 (#6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
24.5%
(11:11) #48 T.O'Hara punt 44 yards to the ALA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2INT TD
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:4676% → 74%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
24.4%
(11:04) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ALA10 (#22 G.Godfrey) PENALTY ALA Intentional Grounding (#12 K.Russell)Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-2
24.5%
(10:56) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 2 yards loss to the ALA08 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #12 H.Sykes)Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 22
OWN 8
-2
26.4%
(10:15) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass intercepted by #90 M.Humphrey-Grace at ALA02 #90 M.Humphrey-Grace return 2 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:11 #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4774% → 72%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.2%
(10:11) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA28 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
26.8%
(09:33) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at ALA35, for 9 yards to the ALA37 (#12 H.Sykes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
27.1%
(08:58) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #3 L.Brooks caught at UK47, for 23 yards to the UK40 (#22 G.Godfrey; #12 H.Sykes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
27.3%
(08:17) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
27.8%
(07:34) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at UK40, for 2 yards to the UK37 (#3 A.Gates) PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#3 A.Gates) 15 yards from UK37 to UK22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
27.6%
(07:17) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UK27 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace), fumble by #12 K.Russell recovered by UK #15 C.Works at UK27, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2629% → 27%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
29.1%
(07:08) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK31 (#2 Z.Brown; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
29.4%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to UK44Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-34
26.5%
(06:44) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass intercepted by #4 L.Metz at UK34 #4 L.Metz return 34 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:35 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 6:2627% → 37%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
26.7%
(06:28) Shotgun #2 J.Barnes rush left for 0 yards to the UK17 (#7 C.Woodson; #22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
27.0%
(05:51) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK22 (#4 L.Metz; #13 I.Taylor) PENALTY ALA Holding (#88 I.Faga) 10 yards from UK22 to UK32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
27.4%
(05:17) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush left for 1 yard gain to the UK33 (#99 T.Green; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
27.7%
(04:48) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush left for 4 yards gain to the UK37 (#8 J.Hill)Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
28.1%
(04:07) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #19 K.Darby caught at UK42, for 5 yards to the UK42 (#19 C.McDonald III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
28.9%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to ALA45 PENALTY ALA Holding (#7 C.Woodson) 10 yards from UK42 to ALA48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
29.4%
(03:39) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 8 yards gain to the ALA40 (#7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
30.0%
(02:54) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA33 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
30.7%
(02:11) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ALA29 (#4 L.Metz; #22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
31.2%
(01:29) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at ALA26, for 5 yards to the ALA24 (#36 Q.Reese)Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
31.2%
(00:42) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Baxter thrown to ALA19Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 0
0
30.6%
W. Rodriguez fumbled, forced by K. SabbSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
30.6%
K. Minchey pass to W. Rodriguez for 1 yd for a 1ST down, W. Rodriguez fumbled, forced by K. SabbSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
32.0%
(00:19) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA20 (#1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
36.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #87 H.Boyer caught at ALA03, for 20 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:1765% → 65%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.1%
(14:55) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 5 yards loss to the ALA20 (#91 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
32.7%
(14:14) Shotgun #3 L.Brooks rush right for 3 yards gain to the ALA23 (#14 T.Bryant) PENALTY ALA Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
33.4%
(13:55) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #7 R.Scott thrown to ALA35 PENALTY UK Offside (#15 C.Works) 5 yards from ALA23 to ALA28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
33.3%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at ALA39, for 13 yards to the ALA41 (#14 T.Bryant; #3 A.Gates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
32.1%
(13:14) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 6 yards gain to the ALA47 (#22 G.Godfrey; #91 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+9
32.2%
(12:35) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #3 L.Brooks caught at UK44, for 9 yards to the UK44 (#5 J.Castell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
32.3%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #7 R.Scott caught at UK12, for 32 yards to the UK12, out of bounds at UK12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
31.7%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush left for 12 yards gain to the UK00 nullified by penalty, clock 11:42 PENALTY ALA Holding offsetting UK Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
31.8%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle to #1 R.Coleman-Williams thrown to UK07 PENALTY UK Roughing The Passer (#2 S.Greene) 6 yards from UK12 to UK06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
31.8%
(11:38) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #7 R.Scott thrown to UK00 broken up by #12 H.Sykes PENALTY ALA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#52 M.Waldrep Jr.) 5 yards from UK06 to UK11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
31.9%
(11:30) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK06 (#5 J.Castell; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
32.3%
(10:54) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK02 (#14 T.Bryant; #27 I.McMillian)Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
33.4%
(10:14) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UK07 (#14 T.Bryant, #94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
34.9%
(09:27) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock 09:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5536% → 38%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.2%
(09:27) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush right for 7 yards gain to the UK32 (#1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
37.5%
(08:51) #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK35, for 3 yards to the UK35 (#36 Q.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
38.0%
(08:13) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK36 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
38.7%
(07:32) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush right for 2 yards gain to the UK38 (#36 Q.Reese; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-4
38.5%
(07:11) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UK34 (#1 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+12
37.5%
(06:33) #48 T.O'Hara punt 45 yards to the ALA21 #1 R.Coleman-Williams return 12 yards to the ALA33 (#8 L.Cowan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:1163% → 62%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
37.2%
(06:20) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #9 M.Pritchett caught at UK49, for 18 yards to the UK49, out of bounds at UK49 PENALTY ALA Illegal Touch-Pass (#9 M.Pritchett) 5 yards from ALA33 to ALA28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+5
39.0%
PENALTY ALA False Start (#55 R.Delgatty) 5 yards from ALA28 to ALA23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 20
OWN 23
0
39.0%
(05:42) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short left to #4 D.Hill thrown to ALA21 broken up by #15 C.WorksSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+27
39.9%
(05:41) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #9 M.Pritchett caught at ALA49, for 27 yards to the ALA50 (#3 A.Gates; #19 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
50
+4
36.1%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK46 (#25 T.Wallace)Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+16
36.6%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 16 yards gain to the UK30 (#14 T.Bryant), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
36.0%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #17 T.Brown caught at UK26, for 8 yards to the UK22 (#14 T.Bryant; #12 H.Sykes)Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-1
35.8%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UK23 (#94 T.Gadson; #12 H.Sykes)Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
37.2%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush middle for 0 yards to the UK23 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
37.6%
(02:13) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock 02:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0341% → 39%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.7%
(02:08) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush left for 15 yards gain to the UK40 (#3 K.Sabb) PENALTY UK Holding (#77 T.Tshabola) 10 yards from UK25 to UK15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
40.5%
(01:59) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UK27 (#7 C.Woodson; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
41.0%
(01:19) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep middle to #87 H.Boyer thrown to ALA46Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #19 K.Darby thrown to UK35 broken up by #0 Y.PierreSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
39.0%
(01:09) #48 T.O'Hara punt 33 yards to the ALA40 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at ALA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10INT
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0962% → 59%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
38.1%
(01:04) Shotgun #12 K.Russell sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ALA31 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OWN 31
0
40.8%
(00:55) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass intercepted by #5 J.Castell at UK46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG
15 plays · 33 yds · 0:4944% → 46%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.3%
(00:55) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Baxter thrown to UK48 QB hurried by #4 L.MetzSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
42.3%
(00:49) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right to #4 N.Anderson thrown to ALA26Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+6
40.9%
(00:44) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ALA48 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+5
42.3%
PENALTY ALA Delay Of Game (#18 B.Hubbard) 5 yards from ALA48 to ALA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 43
-10
42.1%
(00:34) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 10 yards loss to the UK47 fumbled by #1 C.Baxter at ALA49 recovered by UK #3 K.Minchey at UK47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+24
42.6%
(00:29) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #19 K.Darby caught at ALA36, for 24 yards to the ALA29 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
46.3%
(00:20) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right to #4 N.Anderson thrown to ALA00 broken up by #3 K.SabbSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
46.3%
(00:15) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ALA21 (#0 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
44.6%
(00:03) No Huddle #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
46.4%
Adam Zouagui 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4856% → 53%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA26 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
44.6%
(14:28) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right thrown to ALA35 broken up by #15 C.WorksSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
45.7%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams thrown to ALA35 broken up by #94 T.GadsonSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
46.8%
(14:17) #32 A.Asparuhov punt 54 yards to the UK20 #12 B.Coffman return 16 yards to the UK36 (#88 J.Lindsey) PENALTY UK Holding (#10 D.Williams) 10 yards from UK20 to UK10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:0045% → 48%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
45.3%
(14:04) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 1 yard gain to the UK11 (#8 J.Hill)Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+18
45.7%
(13:30) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK29, for 18 yards to the UK29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
46.3%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK27, for 1 yard to the UK30 (#7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
46.7%
(12:24) #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK32 (#1 D.Thompkins; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-9
46.0%
(11:46) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UK23 (#7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
48.2%
(11:05) #48 T.O'Hara punt 36 yards to the ALA41 fair catch by #1 R.Coleman-Williams at ALA41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3853% → 54%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
47.0%
(10:57) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA44, for 9 yards to the ALA50 (#0 B.Barnes; #14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
50
0
45.2%
(10:19) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short left to #1 R.Coleman-Williams thrown to UK45 broken up by #15 C.WorksSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
50
0
46.0%
(10:16) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 0 yards to the UK50 (#3 A.Gates)Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 1
50
+5
48.2%
(09:37) #4 D.Hill rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK45 (#5 J.Castell; #27 I.McMillian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
46.7%
(09:02) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at UK23, for 23 yards to the UK22, out of bounds at UK22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
45.3%
(08:29) Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush left for 3 yards gain to the UK19 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
45.6%
(07:55) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete short middle thrown to UK12 broken up by #2 S.GreeneSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+3
47.3%
(07:50) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at UK17, for 3 yards to the UK16 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
45.6%
(07:13) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier), clock 07:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2049% → 48%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
(07:09) Shotgun #2 J.Barnes rush right for 0 yards to the UK25 (#6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.7%
(06:34) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #2 J.Barnes caught at UK25, for 4 yards to the UK29 (#5 D.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
48.4%
(05:47) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UK21 (#1 D.Thompkins), fumble by #3 K.Minchey recovered by ALA #88 I.Faga at UK21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:3157% → 78%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
42.8%
(05:41) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #3 L.Brooks caught at UK16, for 7 yards to the UK14 (#30 G.Grayton)Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+1
42.7%
(05:06) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK13 (#4 A.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+10
44.8%
(04:25) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 10 yards gain to the UK03 (#14 T.Bryant; #3 A.Gates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.5%
(03:44) #9 M.Pritchett rush right for 0 yards to the UK03 (#94 T.Gadson; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.5%
(03:03) #13 E.Crowell rush left for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:00 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0130% → 29%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.1%
(03:00) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #1 C.Baxter caught at UK26, for 6 yards to the UK31 (#5 D.Lee Jr.; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
32.1%
(02:19) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK34 (#18 B.Hubbard; #22 K.Bingley-Jones)Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
31.3%
(01:36) #2 J.Barnes rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UK32 (#18 B.Hubbard; #6 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
29.0%
(00:49) #87 H.Boyer rush left for 2 yards gain to the UK34 (#36 Q.Reese; #13 I.Taylor), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:2478% → 92%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
21.9%
(00:48) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 31 yards gain to the UK03, out of bounds at UK03, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:48) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 34 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
8.4%
(00:28) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #3 L.Brooks pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0111% → 11%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.3%
(00:22) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK27, for 9 yards to the UK34 (#1 D.Thompkins; #7 C.Woodson)Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-6
11.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 6 yards loss to the UK28 (#10 J.Edwards)Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
10.9%
(14:16) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #19 K.Darby thrown to UK31Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
10.9%
(14:11) #48 T.O'Hara punt 46 yards to the ALA26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5292% → 99%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
8.4%
(14:09) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short left to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at ALA32, for 5 yards to the ALA31 (#12 H.Sykes), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
8.0%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ALA35 (#0 B.Barnes; #15 C.Works)Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+16
8.2%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell rush right for 16 yards gain to the UK49, out of bounds at UK49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
7.0%
(12:39) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UK43 (#5 J.Castell; #0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
6.1%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at UK44, for 6 yards to the UK37 (#5 J.Castell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
6.0%
(11:18) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UK26 (#14 T.Bryant; #2 S.Greene), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
5.6%
(10:36) Shotgun #17 T.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK24 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+15
5.2%
(09:58) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass incomplete deep left to #1 R.Coleman-Williams thrown to UK00 PENALTY UK Pass Interference (#12 H.Sykes) 15 yards from UK24 to UK09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
5.1%
(09:46) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK05 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.4%
(09:11) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #7 R.Scott caught at UK00, for 5 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:08 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 18 yds · 1:582% → 2%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.0%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short left to #19 K.Darby thrown to UK30 QB hurried by #88 I.Faga and #0 Y.PierreSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.9%
(09:01) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UK31 (#7 C.Woodson; #19 C.McDonald III)Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
2.0%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep left to #7 D.Miller thrown to ALA35Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+6
1.9%
(08:36) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK37, for 6 yards to the UK37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.9%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UK45 QB hurried by #18 B.HubbardSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
1.9%
PENALTY UK False Start (#53 L.Heard) 5 yards from UK37 to UK32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
1.9%
(08:10) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #19 K.Darby caught at UK36, for 5 yards to the UK37 (#19 C.McDonald III; #4 L.Metz)Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
1.8%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #19 K.Darby caught at UK42, for 6 yards to the UK43 (#4 L.Metz)Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
1.6%
(07:08) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #19 K.Darby thrown to UK48 broken up by #19 C.McDonald III, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
1.1%
(07:04) Shotgun #13 E.Crowell rush left for 19 yards gain to the UK24 (#5 J.Castell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
1.0%
(06:31) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK20 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
0.8%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short right to #7 R.Scott caught at UK16, for 7 yards to the UK13 (#28 D.Gardner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.8%
(05:15) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK08 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
0.8%
(04:38) Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete short middle to #1 R.Coleman-Williams caught at UK13, for 4 yards loss to the UK12 (#12 H.Sykes) PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#12 H.Sykes) 4 yards from UK08 to UK04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
(04:18) #17 T.Brown rush left for 4 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:11 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.1%
(04:05) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #19 K.Darby caught at UK17, for 5 yards to the UK24 (#35 A.Sanders Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+10
0.1%
(03:25) #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UK34 (#19 C.McDonald III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.1%
(02:48) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK37 fumbled by #26 J.Patterson at UK35 forced by #21 D.Kirkpatrick Jr. recovered by ALA #13 I.Taylor at UK37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
(02:41) #6 R.Morgan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK32 (#28 D.Gardner)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
0.1%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 R.Morgan rush left for 2 yards gain to the UK30 (#27 I.McMillian; #10 D.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
0.1%
(01:20) Shotgun #6 R.Morgan rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UK22 (#8 L.Cowan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
0.1%
(00:38) Shotgun #6 R.Morgan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK19 (#10 D.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:00
(03:03) #13 E.Crowell rush left for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:00 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #32 A.Asparuhov, LS: #55 A.Rozier)
-21
TD · Q3 0:24
(00:28) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #3 L.Brooks pass attempt Successful
-20.7
TD · Q2 14:56
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #87 H.Boyer caught at ALA03, for 20 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com