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MOST

Missouri State 0 at Texas A&M 50

TA&M
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:37 · (13:45) #25 S.McDonald punt 45 yards to the TAMU27 #1 M.Craver return 15 yards to the TAMU42 (#47 A.Kallas)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+48.8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:32: (09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU06, for 15 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum) — TA&M win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:22: David Olano 28 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Mario Craver 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick) — TA&M win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:56: Terry Bussey 10 Yd Run (David Olano Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:09: Jamarion Morrow 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick) — TA&M win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MOST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11MOST 4th & 10 at MOST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:35TA&M 4th & 30 at TA&M 44, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:26TA&M 4th & 30 at TA&M 44, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:57MOST 4th & 2 at TA&M 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:22TA&M 4th & 8 at MOST 10, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36TA&M 4th & 1 at MOST 14, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:50MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 28, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18TA&M 4th & 5 at MOST 39, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:32MOST 4th & 8 at MOST 27, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:50MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 42, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:20MOST 4th & 11 at MOST 43, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:04TA&M 4th & 10 at MOST 29, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:29MOST 4th & 8 at MOST 27, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:32TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:29TA&M Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:56TA&M Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:09TA&M Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:35TA&M Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:52TA&M Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #6 M.Miller thrown to MSU31 broken up by #6 J.HumphreySimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.1%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at MSU21, for 2 yards loss to the MSU23 (#21 R.Coney; #18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.1%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #85 D.Hipp caught at MSU28, for 5 yards to the MSU28 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.0%
(13:45) #25 S.McDonald punt 45 yards to the TAMU27 #1 M.Craver return 15 yards to the TAMU42 (#47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5599% → 99%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.0%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 7 yards gain to the TAMU49, out of bounds at TAMU49Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+8
99.0%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU47, for 8 yards to the MSU43 (#12 J.Boamah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.0%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#54 M.Nabou Jr.) 5 yards from MSU43 to MSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+13
98.9%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MSU35 (#29 C.Ford)Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
98.9%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU32 (#30 C.Wiest), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.9%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #7 I.Horton thrown to MSU19Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
98.8%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 12 yards gain to the MSU20 (#8 J.Kpassou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.8%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU15 (#11 T.Brantley)Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
98.8%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU06, for 15 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #31 S.Freibaum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
98.8%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #87 W.Edwards thrown to MSU25 QB hurried by #14 A.Saka PENALTY TAMU Roughing The Passer (#14 A.Saka) 15 yards from MSU16 to MSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
(09:16) Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep left to #3 I.Myers thrown to TAMU39Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep left to #3 I.Myers thrown to TAMU33Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+6
98.8%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU28, for 6 yards to the MSU37 (#7 D.Brooks)Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
98.7%
(08:25) #25 S.McDonald punt 35 yards to the TAMU28, out of bounds at TAMU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.7%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU34 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
98.7%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep left to #8 A.Bethel-Roman thrown to MSU38 broken up by #8 J.Kpassou. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep left to #8 A.Bethel-Roman caught at MSU38, for 28 yards to the MSU38 (#8 J.Kpassou), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
98.6%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep left to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU40, for 26 yards to the MSU40, out of bounds at MSU40 PENALTY TAMU Pass Interference (#7 I.Horton) 10 yards from TAMU34 to TAMU24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+7
98.6%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #4 R.Owens II caught at TAMU17, for 7 yards to the TAMU31 (#24 C.Olabode)Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
98.5%
(06:20) #37 T.White punt 34 yards to the MSU35, out of bounds at MSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:492% → 2%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU34, for 4 yards to the MSU39 (#21 R.Coney; #99 L.Rink)Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
98.5%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU40 (#0 N.Mikhail; #9 R.Gibson III)Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
98.5%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Cope thrown to MSU45 QB hurried by #21 R.ConeySimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
98.5%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU40 to MSU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.5%
(05:11) #25 S.McDonald punt 45 yards to the TAMU20 #1 M.Craver return 1 yard to the TAMU21 (#2 A.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 23 yds · 4:4599% → 98%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.5%
PENALTY MSU Offside 5 yards from TAMU21 to TAMU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+7
98.5%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TAMU33 (#0 J.Lloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.4%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #7 I.Horton thrown to TAMU36 broken up by #12 J.BoamahSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
98.4%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #6 T.Bussey caught at MSU49, for 18 yards to the MSU49, out of bounds at MSU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.4%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU50 (#92 J.Lukusa; #21 J.Cooper)Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 11
50
+14
98.3%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 14 yards gain to the MSU36 (#12 J.Boamah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
98.3%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU35 (#11 T.Brantley; #97 J.Davis)Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-9
98.2%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU44 (#33 A.Mattison)Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 18
OPP 44
-7
98.1%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TAMU49 (#92 J.Lukusa)Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 25
OWN 49
+5
97.9%
PENALTY TAMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TAMU49 to TAMU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 30
OWN 44
0
97.9%
(00:35) #37 T.White punt 50 yards to the MSU06 #0 J.Robinson return for loss of 6 yards to the fumbled by #0 J.Robinson at recovered by MSU at MSU00. Texas A&M SAFETY, clock 00:26Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 30
OWN 44
-6
97.9%
(00:35) #37 T.White punt 50 yards to the MSU06 #0 J.Robinson return for loss of 6 yards to the MSU06 fumbled by #0 J.Robinson at MSU06, Touchback. Texas A&M SAFETY, clock 00:26 PENALTY MSU Illegal Bat (#6 M.Miller)Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 30
OWN 44
+56
97.9%
(00:35) #37 T.White punt 50 yards to the MSU06 #0 J.Robinson return for loss of 6 yards to the fumbled by #0 J.Robinson at recovered by MSU #6 N.Barrett at MSU00. Texas A&M SAFETY, clock 00:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FUMBLE
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:4298% → 97%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at TAMU50, for 9 yards to the MSU48 (#0 J.Lloyd; #7 M.Ganaway)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
98.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Craver thrown to MSU49Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
98.0%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU45 (#0 J.Lloyd; #30 C.Wiest), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.0%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU41 (#0 J.Lloyd; #11 T.Brantley)Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
97.9%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #2 J.Morrow caught at MSU46, for 11 yards to the MSU30 (#27 D.Rutherford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.8%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep right to #6 T.Bussey thrown to MSU00Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
97.8%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #6 T.Bussey caught at MSU31, for 11 yards to the MSU19 (#27 D.Rutherford; #7 M.Ganaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
97.8%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU16 (#0 J.Lloyd; #5 K.Lindstrom)Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
97.7%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU14 (#35 A.Yelder) PENALTY TAMU Holding (#54 M.Nabou Jr.) 10 yards from MSU16 to MSU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+10
97.7%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #88 M.Riley caught at MSU20, for 6 yards to the MSU20, out of bounds at MSU20 PENALTY TAMU Holding (#71 T.Adams) 10 yards from MSU26 to MSU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 27
OPP 36
+5
97.6%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #6 T.Bussey caught at MSU31, for 5 yards to the MSU31 (#12 J.Boamah)Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 22
OPP 31
+16
97.4%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU15, for 16 yards to the MSU15 fumbled by #7 I.Horton at MSU15 forced by #12 J.Boamah recovered by MSU #12 J.Boamah at MSU15, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU15, for 16 yards to the MSU15 (#12 J.Boamah; #15 M.Blackmon))Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:413% → 3%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
97.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU22 (#6 J.Humphrey; #13 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU26 (#13 M.Davis; #0 N.Mikhail), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU30 (#13 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU33 (#5 D.Hicks; #13 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #85 D.Hipp caught at MSU39, for 10 yards to the MSU43 (#0 N.Mikhail; #54 J.Lockhart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU46 (#7 D.Brooks; #5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
97.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TAMU49 (#0 N.Mikhail)Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
97.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the TAMU49 (#0 N.Mikhail; #21 R.Coney)Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-1
96.9%
(05:59) Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TAMU50 (#17 R.Henderson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:3197% → 98%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.2%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU48 (#11 T.Brantley; #0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+36
97.1%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep right to #7 I.Horton caught at MSU17, for 36 yards to the MSU12 (#12 J.Boamah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
97.2%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush right for 1 yard loss to the MSU13 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+3
97.1%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU10 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
96.9%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #6 T.Bussey thrown to MSU00 broken up by #12 J.BoamahSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
97.6%
David Olano 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.4%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU28 (#10 M.Jones; #21 R.Coney)Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
97.3%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Dubar rush left for 5 yards loss to the MSU23 fumbled by #1 J.Dubar at MSU21 recovered by TAMU #14 A.Saka at MSU23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:0598% → 99%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
97.8%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU18 (#49 D.Brooks)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
97.6%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU16 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
97.1%
(01:12) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU14 (#15 M.Blackmon)Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
96.9%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU12 (#49 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.1%
Mario Craver 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#14 A.Saka; #0 N.Mikhail)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:0199% → 100%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #7 I.Horton thrown to TAMU40Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.7%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU34, for 11 yards to the TAMU41 (#8 J.Kpassou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.8%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TAMU48 (#21 J.Cooper; #96 B.Igbinedion)Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
98.8%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep left to #7 I.Horton thrown to MSU25 broken up by #33 A.MattisonSimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
98.7%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #3 A.Gregory caught at MSU45, for 7 yards to the MSU45 (#8 J.Kpassou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.8%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU40 (#21 J.Cooper; #52 K.Jones)Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
98.8%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #2 J.Morrow caught at MSU41, for 7 yards to the MSU33 (#16 J.O'Neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.8%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at MSU40, for 6 yards to the MSU27 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
98.8%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU25 (#35 A.Yelder)Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+15
98.8%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MSU10 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Terry Bussey 10 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU21, for 0 yards to the MSU25 (#18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at MSU19, for 3 yards to the MSU28 (#0 N.Mikhail), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #85 D.Hipp thrown to MSU33 broken up by #3 M.RatcliffeSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
99.7%
(08:55) #25 S.McDonald punt 39 yards to the TAMU33 #1 M.Craver return 11 yards to the TAMU44 (#47 A.Kallas) PENALTY TAMU Personal Foul (#19 B.Rogers) 15 yards from TAMU44 to TAMU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:33100% → 100%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush left for 1 yard gain to the TAMU30 (#0 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
99.6%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #88 M.Riley caught at TAMU34, for 7 yards to the TAMU37 (#0 J.Lloyd; #80 M.Osei-Bonsu)Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
99.6%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #88 M.Riley caught at TAMU39, for 6 yards to the TAMU43, out of bounds at TAMU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.7%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #8 A.Bethel-Roman caught at MSU44, for 13 yards to the MSU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.7%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at MSU47, for 4 yards to the MSU40 (#8 J.Kpassou)Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
99.8%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Bussey rush left for 0 yards to the MSU40 (#30 C.Wiest; #29 C.Ford)Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU39, out of bounds at MSU39Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+6
99.7%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #11 K.Johnson caught at MSU34, for 6 yards to the MSU33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.8%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU31 (#96 B.Igbinedion)Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
99.8%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep right to #8 A.Bethel-Roman thrown to MSU00 broken up by #12 J.BoamahSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
99.8%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#79 L.Rogers) 5 yards from MSU31 to MSU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+18
99.8%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #4 R.Owens II caught at MSU37, for 18 yards to the MSU18 (#8 J.Kpassou), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.8%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU10 (#33 A.Mattison)Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+7
99.8%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Morrow rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU03 (#29 C.Ford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Craver thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#12 J.Boamah) 1 yard from MSU03 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Jamarion Morrow 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#99 L.Rink; #21 R.Coney)Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU27 (#21 R.Coney; #99 L.Rink)Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #87 W.Edwards thrown to MSU28 broken up by #16 B.Perry-WrightSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
(00:41) #25 S.McDonald punt 38 yards to the TAMU35 #6 T.Bussey return 11 yards to the TAMU46 (#27 D.Rutherford; #16 J.O'Neal)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.9%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MSU43 (#15 M.Blackmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush right for 13 yards gain to the MSU30 (#35 A.Yelder), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #11 K.Johnson thrown to MSU15 PENALTY MSU Holding (#12 J.Boamah) 10 yards from MSU30 to MSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU12 (#2 A.Smith; #35 A.Yelder)Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Carsyn Baker 12 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MSU22 (#25 T.Watkins)Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
99.9%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU16 (#17 R.Henderson), fumble by #9 S.Locklear recovered by TAMU #88 D.Sanders at MSU16 #88 D.Sanders return 1 yard to the MSU15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Aaron Gregory 15 Yd pass from Brady Hart (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU36 (#88 D.Sanders; #54 J.Lockhart)Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU42 (#88 D.Sanders; #11 B.Davis-Swain)Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush middle for 24 yards gain (6) to the TAMU34 (#13 M.Davis) PENALTY MSU Holding (#72 I.Villanueva) 10 yards from MSU48 to MSU38Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU40, for 4 yards to the MSU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU44 (#22 T.Givens; #16 B.Perry-Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to TAMU39Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU43 (#22 T.Givens)Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
100.0%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Robinson thrown to TAMU42 QB hurried by #22 T.GivensSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
100.0%
(09:26) #25 S.McDonald punt 42 yards to the TAMU15 fair catch by #6 T.Bussey at TAMU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.9%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush right for 13 yards gain to the TAMU28 (#27 D.Rutherford; #2 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass complete short left to #11 K.Johnson caught at TAMU33, for 7 yards to the TAMU35 (#3 K.Anderson; #27 D.Rutherford)Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush left for 9 yards gain to the TAMU44 (#38 S.Shufelt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass incomplete short right to #9 K.Armstrong thrown to MSU41Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.9%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass complete short middle to #11 K.Johnson caught at MSU44, for 12 yards to the MSU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU38 (#52 K.Jones)Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass complete short left to #0 K.Edwards caught at MSU44, for 2 yards to the MSU36 (#14 J.Martin; #24 C.Olabode)Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU29 (#38 S.Shufelt; #24 C.Olabode), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
100.0%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU29 (#99 M.Chapman)Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
100.0%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass incomplete short left to #18 T.Norman thrown to MSU15Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
100.0%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass incomplete short right to #81 J.Warren thrown to MSU21 broken up by #24 C.OlabodeSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
100.0%
Asher Murray 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU28 (#23 B.Arrington)Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
100.0%
(03:19) Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU27 (#55 S.Moala)Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
(02:41) Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #17 B.McQueen thrown to MSU39Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
(02:34) #25 S.McDonald punt 41 yards to the TAMU32 fair catch by #6 T.Bussey at TAMU32 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TAMU32 to TAMU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush left for 5 yards gain to the TAMU42 (#22 G.Cutchlow; #38 S.Shufelt)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Baker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU48 (#38 S.Shufelt; #24 C.Olabode), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU48 (#31 C.Roy)Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
100.0%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Hart pass incomplete deep right to #81 J.Warren thrown to MSU07Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+6
100.0%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU42 (#38 S.Shufelt; #97 J.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:29
Mario Craver 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)
+2
TD · Q3 9:56
Terry Bussey 10 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
+0.8
FG · Q2 3:22
David Olano 28 Yd Field Goal
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com