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UAPB

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14 at Missouri 54

MIZ
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUAPB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:55 · (03:00) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 26 yards to the Mizzou43, out of bounds at Mizzou43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+46.8Home team on offense+4.3Score differential+1.3Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:16: (04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB00, for 14 yards to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc) — MIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:56: J. Roberts run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:44: A. Simmons pass to D. Olugbode for 35 yds, for a TD (B. Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UAPB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:26UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03MIZ 4th & 1 at UAPB 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55UAPB 4th & 4 at UAPB 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:06UAPB 4th & 4 at UAPB 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:30UAPB 4th & 5 at UAPB 30, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 44, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:24UAPB 4th & 18 at MIZ 46, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:40MIZ 4th & 27 at MIZ 48, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:03MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 44, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:29MIZ 4th & 8 at UAPB 42, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:06UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 11, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:48UAPB 4th & 21 at UAPB 14, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UAPB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:38MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:16MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:44MIZ Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:01MIZ Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:13UAPB Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:49MIZ Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.7%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short left to #19 C.Lee caught at Mizzou28, for 2 yards loss to the Mizzou28 (#50 N.Walker)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
99.7%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short left to #1 D.Olugbode caught at Mizzou32, for 4 yards to the Mizzou32 (#38 N.Johnson; #35 M.Henderson)Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
99.7%
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short left to #87 B.Norfleet caught at Mizzou39, for 9 yards to the Mizzou41 (#35 M.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.7%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #87 B.Norfleet caught at Mizzou39, for 4 yards to the Mizzou45 (#28 C.Jackson; #32 A.Stribling)Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
99.7%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 1 yard gain to the Mizzou46 (#99 M.McDonald; #91 M.Cagle)Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
99.7%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB46, for 8 yards to the UAPB46, out of bounds at UAPB46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.7%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UAPB38 (#0 D.Hilliard; #58 J.Blanks)Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+13
99.6%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB29, for 13 yards to the UAPB25 (#32 A.Stribling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
99.6%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UAPB29 (#30 M.Campbell, #90 D.Simon, Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+4
99.6%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 4 yards gain to the UAPB25 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.; #11 T.Cole)Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.6%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #4 S.Terry II caught at UAPB08, for 25 yards to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete deep left to #17 D.Whitlock Jr. thrown to UAPB47Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.6%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UAPB23 (#11 L.Kitchen)Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.6%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Jackson thrown to UAPB48 QB hurried by #10 D.HopkinsSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+23
99.6%
(08:39) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 49 yards to the Mizzou28 #3 D.Fowlkes return 23 yards to the UAPB49 (#60 R.Davis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.6%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB50, for 9 yards to the UAPB40 (#11 T.Cole; #49 A.Lewis)Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
99.6%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass incomplete deep middle to #2 C.Goodie Sr. thrown to UAPB00Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
99.6%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 0 yards to the UAPB40 (#50 N.Walker; #51 M.Kelleh)Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+7
99.5%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UAPB33 (#51 M.Kelleh; #49 A.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.5%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 2 yards loss to the UAPB35 (#98 K.Wilks)Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+15
99.5%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #19 C.Lee caught at UAPB21, for 15 yards to the UAPB20 (#38 N.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.5%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 2 yards gain to the UAPB18 (#99 M.McDonald)Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
99.5%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Fonoti rush right for 4 yards gain to the UAPB14 (#58 J.Blanks)Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
99.5%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB00, for 14 yards to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAPB26 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.5%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush right for 5 yards gain to the UAPB31 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Jackson thrown to Mizzou37Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
(03:00) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 26 yards to the Mizzou43, out of bounds at Mizzou43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.5%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mizzou45 (#27 D.Paulhill), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
99.5%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UAPB43 (#37 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.5%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #0 N.Montgomery thrown to UAPB33Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.5%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 2 yards loss to the UAPB45 (#0 D.Hilliard)Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
PENALTY UAPB Offside (#99 M.McDonald) 5 yards from UAPB45 to UAPB40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+24
99.4%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB23, for 24 yards to the UAPB16 (#27 D.Paulhill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.4%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 13 yards gain (5) to the UAPB03 (#0 D.Hilliard) PENALTY Mizzou Holding (#56 D.Giudice) 10 yards from UAPB11 to UAPB21Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+9
99.4%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #0 N.Montgomery caught at UAPB12, for 9 yards to the UAPB12 (#35 M.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+11
99.4%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 11 yards gain to the UAPB01 (#37 B.Williams; #35 M.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 0 yards to the UAPB01, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
J. Roberts run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:450% → 1%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Williams thrown to UAPB22 QB hurried by #19 D.Smith and #90 S.WebbSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAPB27 (#22 E.Dotson)Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.6%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short right to #3 J.Williams caught at UAPB27, for 11 yards to the UAPB38 (#15 S.Banner; #6 J.Beasley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short right to #6 J.Jackson caught at UAPB36, for 0 yards to the UAPB38 (#21 J.Florence)Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
99.5%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short left to #17 D.Whitlock Jr. caught at UAPB44, for 6 yards to the UAPB44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
99.5%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete short left to #10 C.Hicks Jr. thrown to UAPB39Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.5%
(10:11) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 56 yards to the Mizzou00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Fonoti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mizzou24 (#93 J.Narcisse; #51 M.Kelleh)Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
99.6%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short left to #0 N.Montgomery caught at Mizzou34, for 9 yards to the Mizzou33, out of bounds at Mizzou33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.6%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Fonoti rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Mizzou43 (#44 D.Murdock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
99.6%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete deep left to #19 C.Lee caught at UAPB37, for 20 yards to the UAPB37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.6%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB25, for 9 yards to the UAPB28 fumbled by #1 D.Olugbode at UAPB26 forced by #35 M.Henderson recovered by UAPB #35 M.Henderson at UAPB28 #35 M.Henderson return 13 yards to the UAPB41 (#19 C.Lee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 8SF
5 plays · -41 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
99.5%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush right for 2 yards loss to the UAPB39 (#22 E.Dotson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+6
99.5%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis rush left for 6 yards gain to the UAPB45 (#15 S.Banner)Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
99.4%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass intercepted by #22 E.Dotson at Mizzou35 QB hurried by #17 B.Huff #22 E.Dotson return 6 yards to the Mizzou41 (#2 D.Robinson) PENALTY Mizzou Personal Foul offsetting UAPB Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
99.4%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete deep right to #2 D.Robinson thrown to Mizzou34Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.8%
A. Simmons pass to D. Olugbode for 35 yds, for a TD (B. Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAPB28 (#6 J.Beasley)Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz rush left for 2 yards gain to the UAPB30 (#6 J.Beasley; #19 D.Smith)Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete short left to #82 D.Clark thrown to UAPB47Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.8%
(04:38) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 38 yards to the Mizzou32 #3 D.Fowlkes return 11 yards to the Mizzou43 (#49 A.Lewis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.8%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UAPB47 (#50 N.Walker; #14 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.9%
A. Simmons pass to C. Lee for 47 yds, for a TD (B. Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush middle for 0 yards to the UAPB25 (#9 D.McClellan; #5 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Robinson rush right for 0 yards to the UAPB25 (#9 D.McClellan; #5 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass complete short right to #10 C.Hicks Jr. caught at UAPB23, for 15 yards to the UAPB40 fumbled by #10 C.Hicks Jr. at UAPB31 forced by #22 E.Dotson recovered by UAPB #85 O.Colpeart at UAPB40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete short left to #82 D.Clark thrown to UAPB43Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UAPB44 (#14 C.Bass III)Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete short middle to #18 D.Allen thrown to UAPB47 broken up by #14 C.Bass IIISimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(01:34) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 36 yards to the Mizzou20 fair catch by #3 D.Fowlkes at Mizzou20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Mizzou29 (#35 M.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mizzou32 (#51 M.Kelleh; #49 A.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short middle to #2 C.Goodie Sr. caught at Mizzou37, for 5 yards to the Mizzou37 (#49 A.Lewis)Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Mizzou42 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.; #28 C.Jackson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UAPB Targeting (#28 C.Jackson) 15 yards from Mizzou42 to UAPB43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #4 S.Terry II caught at UAPB41, for 10 yards to the UAPB33 (#0 D.Hilliard; #50 N.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #24 X.Edwards caught at UAPB31, for 15 yards to the UAPB18 (#43 K.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.9%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush left for 4 yards gain to the UAPB14 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
99.9%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short middle to #0 N.Montgomery thrown to UAPB00 broken up by #35 M.HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+32
99.9%
Blake Craig 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:290% → 0%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UAPB38 (#6 J.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.9%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short middle to #2 D.Robinson caught at UAPB44, for 12 yards to the UAPB50 (#34 J.Hancock; #5 N.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Jackson thrown to Mizzou17Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
50
+9
99.9%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short right to #84 P.Summers II caught at Mizzou47, for 9 yards to the Mizzou41 (#34 J.Hancock; #6 J.Beasley)Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mizzou38 (#92 J.Dowell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
PENALTY UAPB False Start (#78 E.Pullins) 5 yards from Mizzou38 to Mizzou43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+10
99.9%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Jennings rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Mizzou36 (#5 N.Rodriguez; #13 J.Jones) PENALTY UAPB Holding (#65 N.Carter) 10 yards from Mizzou43 to UAPB47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+12
99.9%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass complete short right to #87 D.Simmons caught at Mizzou42, for 12 yards to the Mizzou41 (#2 S.Laulea)Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
99.9%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Jackson thrown to Mizzou34Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 G.Davis sacked for loss of 5 yards to the Mizzou46 (#92 J.Dowell)Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
99.9%
(10:27) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 35 yards to the Mizzou11 fair catch by #3 D.Fowlkes at Mizzou11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:36100% → 100%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
99.9%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Mizzou22 (#98 K.Wilks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Mizzou28 (#91 M.Cagle; #50 N.Walker)Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Mizzou33 (#98 K.Wilks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Mizzou44 (#14 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mizzou47 (#0 D.Hilliard)Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+18
99.9%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 D.Fowlkes caught at Mizzou42, for 18 yards to the UAPB35 (#50 N.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
99.9%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush right for 4 yards gain to the UAPB31 (#58 J.Blanks; #25 B.Boulden) PENALTY Mizzou Holding declined Mizzou Holding (#66 L.Reichert) 10 yards from UAPB35 to UAPB45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-2
99.9%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 2 yards loss to the UAPB47, out of bounds at UAPB47Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 22
OPP 47
0
99.9%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short right to #17 K.Lanier II thrown to UAPB35Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 22
OPP 47
0
99.9%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short middle to #31 A.Favrow thrown to UAPB50Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 22
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
(05:48) #40 B.Reus punt 38 yards to the UAPB09 PENALTY Mizzou Illegal Formation (#13 A.Simmons) 5 yards from UAPB47 to Mizzou48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 27
OWN 48
0
99.9%
(05:40) #40 B.Reus punt 52 yards to the UAPB00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.9%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UAPB32 (#28 J.McGregory; #24 N.DeLoach Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UAPB39 (#29 K.Morgan; #57 M.Hensley)Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete short left to #33 M.Martin thrown to UAPB40Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAPB40 (#18 J.Blair; #6 J.Beasley)Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
(03:37) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 43 yards to the Mizzou17 fair catch by #3 D.Fowlkes at Mizzou17 PENALTY Mizzou Holding declined Mizzou Roughing The Kicker (#92 J.Dowell) 5 yards from UAPB40 to UAPB45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAPB50 (#6 J.Beasley; #28 J.McGregory)Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 5
50
+23
99.9%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass complete deep left to #86 B.Robinson caught at Mizzou28, for 23 yards to the Mizzou27 (#24 N.DeLoach Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush left for 27 yards gain to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #48 T.Glymph kick attempt good (H: #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler, LS: #63 J.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 23 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Mizzou36 (#50 N.Walker)Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 0
-1
99.9%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #24 X.Edwards caught at Mizzou35, for 1 yard loss to the Mizzou35 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #31 A.Favrow caught at Mizzou32, for 9 yards to the Mizzou44 (#27 D.Paulhill; #50 N.Walker)Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Mizzou46 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAPB49 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush left for 5 yards gain to the UAPB44 (#35 M.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
PENALTY Mizzou False Start (#2 C.Goodie Sr.) 5 yards from UAPB44 to UAPB49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAPB44 (#50 N.Walker)Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #4 S.Terry II caught at Mizzou50, for 2 yards to the UAPB42 (#21 J.Robinson; #14 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
99.9%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #3 D.Fowlkes thrown to UAPB30Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
99.9%
(13:37) #40 B.Reus punt 35 yards to the UAPB07, out of bounds at UAPB07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
100.0%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UAPB11 (#17 B.Huff)Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
100.0%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass incomplete short right to #29 B.Bruins thrown to UAPB05Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
100.0%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Webber rush middle for 0 yards to the UAPB11 (#16 B.Washington Jr.; #17 B.Huff)Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
100.0%
(12:11) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 33 yards to the UAPB44 fair catch by #3 D.Fowlkes at UAPB44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
99.9%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #0 N.Montgomery caught at UAPB25, for 29 yards to the UAPB15 (#37 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush right for 4 yards gain to the UAPB11 (#14 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+15
99.9%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 9 yards gain to the UAPB02 (#90 D.Simon, Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UAPB Personal Foul (#91 M.Cagle) 1 yard from UAPB02 to UAPB01, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.9%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UAPB05 (#44 D.Murdock)Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 5 yards gain to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:00 #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Williams rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UAPB24 (#16 B.Washington Jr.; #12 M.Bryant)Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+27
100.0%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Williams rush middle for 27 yards gain to the Mizzou49 (#20 C.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
100.0%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Williams rush right for 1 yard loss to the Mizzou50 (#32 B.Jones)Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 11
50
+18
100.0%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #88 T.Grimsley rush left for 18 yards gain to the Mizzou32 (#17 B.Huff), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
100.0%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass complete short right to #83 D.Brewer IV caught at Mizzou33, for 13 yards to the Mizzou19 (#17 B.Huff; #26 J.Gates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
100.0%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Hicks Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mizzou16 (#13 J.Jones; #9 D.McClellan)Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Schierholz pass complete short middle to #83 D.Brewer IV caught at Mizzou03, for 16 yards to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #48 T.Glymph kick attempt good (H: #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler, LS: #63 J.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+4
100.0%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 A.Favrow rush left for 4 yards gain to the UAPB46 (#60 R.Davis; #32 A.Stribling)Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+18
100.0%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 N.Evers pass complete short right to #4 S.Terry II caught at UAPB28, for 18 yards to the UAPB28 (#27 D.Paulhill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
100.0%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 P.Hatfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the UAPB26 (#37 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+17
100.0%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 P.Hatfield rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UAPB09 (#0 D.Hilliard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
100.0%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 N.Evers pass incomplete short left thrown to UAPB00Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 P.Hatfield rush right for 9 yards gain to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:49 #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Hicks Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAPB26 (#8 D.Simpson)Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Hicks Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAPB27 (#14 C.Bass III)Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
PENALTY UAPB False Start (#54 Q.McCarty) 5 yards from UAPB27 to UAPB22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
100.0%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Holcomb pass complete short right to #84 P.Summers II caught at UAPB20, for 8 yards loss to the UAPB14 (#16 B.Washington Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
100.0%
(01:49) #97 G.Wiles-Khoehler punt 40 yards to the Mizzou46 fair catch by #3 D.Fowlkes at Mizzou46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
100.0%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 P.Hatfield rush right for 6 yards gain to the UAPB48 (#37 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
100.0%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Warner rush right for 0 yards to the UAPB48 (#49 A.Lewis; #58 J.Blanks)Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Warner rush right for 7 yards gain to the UAPB41 (#51 M.Kelleh; #50 N.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:44
A. Simmons pass to D. Olugbode for 35 yds, for a TD (B. Craig KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 12:56
J. Roberts run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Craig KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 4:16
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UAPB00, for 14 yards to the UAPB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Craig kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Reus, LS: #49 B.Le Blanc)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com