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YSU

Youngstown State 13 at Kentucky 45

UK
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreYSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:00 · (10:09) #42 L.Amore punt 38 yards to the UK29 #12 B.Coffman return 11 yards to the UK40 (#2 D.Williams)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+41.4Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:30: (11:36) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #8 M.Skinner caught at YSU12, for 10 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:51: Willie Rodriguez 2 Yd pass from CJ Baxter (Adam Zouagui Kick) — UK win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: (00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK00, for 6 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:20, 1ST DOWN #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt good (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer) — YSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:19: (08:26) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #83 P.Jean caught at YSU29, for 26 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:19, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti) — UK win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:41: (03:45) Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush left for 9 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41 #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt failed (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer) — YSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 4YSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:00YSU 4th & 2 at YSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:32YSU 4th & 6 at UK 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:03YSU 4th & 10 at UK 38, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:01UK 4th & 2 at UK 28, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:51UK 4th & 2 at YSU 2, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:44YSU 4th & 24 at YSU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:26UK 4th & 8 at YSU 42, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:01YSU 4th & 10 at YSU 15, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:48YSU 4th & 6 at UK 24, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:29UK 4th & 3 at YSU 10, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:00YSU 4th & 14 at YSU 41, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6YSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:29UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:30UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:51UK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20YSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:19UK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:41YSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:48UK Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2594% → 93%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
(14:59) #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK29 (#35 G.Rollins; #9 J.Pritchard-Sewell)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
93.4%
(14:22) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #8 M.Skinner caught at UK25, for 8 yards to the UK37 (#1 C.Smith; #5 C.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
93.3%
(13:41) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #4 N.Anderson caught at UK35, for 4 yards to the UK41 (#22 D.Holman)Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+33
93.2%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep middle to #19 K.Darby caught at YSU36, for 33 yards to the YSU26 (#7 R.Collins III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
93.1%
(12:31) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #19 K.Darby caught at YSU28, for 4 yards to the YSU22 (#1 C.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
93.1%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at YSU21, for 12 yards to the YSU10 (#3 M.Wells), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
93.0%
PENALTY UK False Start (#81 W.Rodriguez) 5 yards from YSU10 to YSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
93.2%
(11:36) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 15 yards gain to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:29, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #97 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:237% → 7%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.1%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush middle for 5 yards gain to the YSU30 (#0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
93.0%
(10:56) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Sanders thrown to YSU40Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
93.0%
(10:50) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #7 J.Gilbert caught at YSU26, for 3 yards to the YSU33 (#27 I.McMillian)Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
92.9%
(10:09) #42 L.Amore punt 38 yards to the UK29 #12 B.Coffman return 11 yards to the UK40 (#2 D.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:2893% → 94%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
93.0%
(10:00) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush left for 10 yards gain to the UK50 (#18 D.Tunis; #1 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
50
+20
93.0%
(09:21) #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at YSU49, for 20 yards to the YSU30 (#5 C.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
92.9%
(08:40) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the YSU26 (#0 J.Williams-West; #3 M.Wells)Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
92.8%
(07:58) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Patterson thrown to YSU26 broken up by #5 C.MarshallSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+14
92.7%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at YSU20, for 14 yards to the YSU12 (#6 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
92.7%
(07:09) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush left for 7 yards gain to the YSU05 (#18 D.Tunis)Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
93.7%
(06:28) #1 C.Baxter rush left for 5 yards gain to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:437% → 7%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.2%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 L.Wyche-El rush right for 5 yards gain to the YSU30 (#2 S.Greene; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
93.1%
(05:50) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush right for 4 yards gain to the YSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
93.1%
(05:15) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the YSU35 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
93.0%
(04:30) Shotgun #1 L.Wyche-El rush left for 11 yards gain to the YSU46 (#0 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.9%
(03:58) Shotgun #4 A.Gardner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the YSU47 (#93 K.Edwards)Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
93.0%
(03:16) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #11 L.Jenkins caught at YSU50, for 7 yards to the UK46 (#0 B.Barnes; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
92.7%
(02:39) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush left for 2 yards gain to the UK44 (#30 G.Grayton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
92.7%
(02:07) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #7 J.Gilbert caught at UK45, for 3 yards to the UK41 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
92.6%
(01:30) Shotgun #4 A.Gardner rush middle for 0 yards to the UK41 (#97 T.Thomas; #5 J.Castell)Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
92.6%
(00:50) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short middle to #85 A.Bray thrown to UK35 broken up by #0 B.BarnesSimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
92.7%
(00:43) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short right to #8 B.Hunt thrown to UK30, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:0194% → 96%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
93.5%
(00:31) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 9 yards gain to the UK50 (#37 M.Johnson)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
50
+7
93.5%
(14:59) #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the YSU43 (#35 G.Rollins; #37 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
93.6%
(14:17) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at YSU44, for 16 yards to the YSU27 (#3 M.Wells; #37 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
93.6%
(13:35) #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the YSU20 (#36 R.Owens Jr.)Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
93.6%
(12:52) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the YSU15 (#37 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.6%
(12:11) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the YSU10 (#36 R.Owens Jr.; #90 C.Greene)Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
96.0%
(11:36) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #8 M.Skinner caught at YSU12, for 10 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 6:194% → 4%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.8%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short left to #7 J.Gilbert caught at YSU23, for 3 yards to the YSU28 (#2 S.Greene; #13 C.Reyes)Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.8%
(10:57) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #7 J.Gilbert caught at YSU29, for 9 yards to the YSU37 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
95.8%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard sacked for loss of 5 yards to the YSU32 (#6 A.Breaux)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+13
96.0%
(09:50) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #6 J.Sanders caught at YSU42, for 13 yards to the YSU45 (#21 N.Addison; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
95.8%
(09:08) Shotgun #5 F.Walters rush left for 3 yards gain to the YSU48 (#22 G.Godfrey; #90 M.Humphrey-Grace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
95.8%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #5 F.Walters caught at YSU41, for 2 yards to the YSU50 (#21 N.Addison; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 8
50
+7
95.7%
(08:10) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush right for 7 yards gain to the UK43 (#0 B.Barnes), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
95.6%
(07:29) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK38 (#13 C.Reyes; #27 I.McMillian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.7%
(06:50) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush middle for 0 yards to the UK38 (#15 C.Works)Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
95.8%
(06:33) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK43, for 4 yards to the UK34 (#91 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-4
95.8%
(05:55) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush left for 4 yards loss to the UK38 fumbled by #12 B.Brungard at UK38 recovered by YSU #1 L.Wyche-El at UK39 (#27 I.McMillian)Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
96.1%
(05:08) #37 E.Anderson punt 38 yards to the UK00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
(05:03) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #4 N.Anderson thrown to UK24 broken up by #22 D.HolmanSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.7%
(04:57) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 8 yards gain to the UK28 (#5 C.Marshall; #97 D.Kirby)Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
96.7%
(04:17) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right thrown to UK35 QB hurried by #9 J.Pritchard-SewellSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+1
96.7%
(04:11) #48 T.O'Hara punt 45 yards to the YSU27 muffed by #88 P.Bjork at YSU27 recovered by UK #14 T.Bryant at YSU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
97.1%
(04:00) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 22 yards gain to the YSU06 (#1 C.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
97.1%
(03:25) #1 C.Baxter rush left for 1 yard loss to the YSU07 (#13 D.Inglis; #45 M.Wright Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.2%
(02:43) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the YSU02 (#35 G.Rollins; #13 D.Inglis)Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.1%
(02:01) Shotgun #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 0 yards to the YSU02 (#13 D.Inglis; #22 D.Holman)Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Willie Rodriguez 2 Yd pass from CJ Baxter (Adam Zouagui Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:251% → 4%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
(01:51) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Sanders thrown to YSU45 broken up by #27 I.McMillianSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.9%
(01:43) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush right for 5 yards gain to the YSU30 (#0 B.Barnes), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.7%
(01:36) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush middle for 6 yards gain to the YSU36 (#0 B.Barnes; #22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
98.8%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short left to #2 D.Williams caught at YSU47, for 11 yards to the YSU47 (#27 I.McMillian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short middle to #17 A.McDonald thrown to YSU47 broken up by #91 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
98.8%
(01:06) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short left to #11 L.Jenkins caught at UK44, for 9 yards to the UK44, out of bounds at UK44Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
98.5%
(01:01) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #4 A.Gardner caught at UK45, for 2 yards to the UK42 (#14 T.Bryant; #30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.7%
(00:57) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short left to #1 L.Wyche-El thrown to UK23Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+30
98.8%
(00:52) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete deep middle to #11 L.Jenkins caught at UK17, for 30 yards to the UK12 (#14 T.Bryant; #30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.9%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short left to #8 B.Hunt caught at UK06, for 6 yards to the UK06 (#14 T.Bryant; #27 I.McMillian)Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
98.9%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short left to #1 L.Wyche-El thrown to UK00 QB hurried by #22 G.GodfreySimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
95.8%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK00, for 6 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:20, 1ST DOWN #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt good (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
97.3%
(00:15) Kneel down by #3 K.Minchey at UK28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 3:073% → 3%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at YSU29, for 11 yards to the YSU36 (#27 I.McMillian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.7%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush middle for 1 yard gain to the YSU37 (#15 C.Works)Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
96.7%
(13:52) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short left to #85 A.Bray caught at YSU44, for 8 yards to the YSU45 (#0 B.Barnes) PENALTY YSU Holding (#78 D.Leigh) 10 yards from YSU37 to YSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+3
97.0%
(13:30) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #0 T.Mills caught at YSU30, for 3 yards to the YSU30 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-8
97.1%
(12:44) Shotgun #0 T.Mills rush left for 8 yards loss to the YSU22 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+6
97.3%
(11:59) #42 L.Amore punt 44 yards to the UK34 #12 B.Coffman return 20 yards to the YSU46 (#17 A.McDonald), out of bounds PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#4 A.Smith) 15 yards from UK40 to UK25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1698% → 100%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
(11:43) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UK32 (#35 G.Rollins; #36 R.Owens Jr.). #56 C.Johannesen injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
97.6%
(11:15) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK36 (#18 D.Tunis; #36 R.Owens Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.7%
(10:32) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 1 yard loss to the UK35 (#5 C.Marshall; #95 T.Jolly)Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+11
97.7%
(09:54) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #4 N.Anderson thrown to YSU48 QB hurried by #3 M.Wells, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY YSU Pass Interference (#4 W.Sturzinger) 11 yard from UK35 to UK46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
97.8%
(09:51) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short middle to #8 M.Skinner caught at YSU40, for 15 yards to the YSU39 (#5 C.Marshall; #35 G.Rollins), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY YSU Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
97.9%
(09:21) #19 K.Darby rush right for 9 yards gain to the YSU30 (#18 D.Tunis)Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
97.9%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to YSU02Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
97.8%
(08:51) #1 C.Baxter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the YSU26 (#35 G.Rollins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.9%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Baxter thrown to YSU23 broken up by #3 M.WellsSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.6%
(08:26) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #83 P.Jean caught at YSU29, for 26 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:19, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:300% → 2%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
(08:18) Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush middle for 3 yards gain to the YSU28 (#5 J.Castell; #0 B.Barnes)Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
99.6%
(07:44) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at YSU44, for 18 yards to the YSU46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.6%
(07:09) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #17 A.McDonald caught at UK49, for 15 yards to the UK39 (#27 I.McMillian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
99.6%
(06:33) Shotgun #2 D.Williams rush left for 6 yards loss to the UK45 (#5 J.Castell)Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+25
99.7%
(05:47) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete deep left to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK21, for 25 yards to the UK20, out of bounds at UK20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.6%
(05:09) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Gardner thrown to UK15Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.7%
(05:04) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush left for 5 yards gain to the UK15 (#30 G.Grayton)Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
99.6%
(04:24) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #7 J.Gilbert caught at UK10, for 6 yards to the UK09 (#25 T.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.8%
(03:45) Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush left for 9 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41 #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt failed (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0398% → 99%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
98.3%
(03:41) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #87 H.Boyer caught at UK43, for 31 yards to the YSU44 (#0 J.Williams-West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.7%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Miller thrown to YSU02 broken up by #19 B.Chambers Jr.Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
98.7%
(02:52) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the YSU35 (#0 J.Williams-West; #19 B.Chambers Jr.) PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#8 M.Skinner) 15 yards from YSU44 to UK41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 25
OWN 41
0
98.6%
(02:23) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Miller thrown to YSU25Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 25
OWN 41
+17
98.6%
(02:18) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey rush right for 17 yards gain to the YSU42 (#13 D.Inglis)Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
98.6%
(01:33) #48 T.O'Hara punt 39 yards to the YSU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:111% → 1%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
98.7%
(01:26) Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush right for 2 yards gain to the YSU05 (#5 J.Castell; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+10
98.9%
(00:44) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #6 J.Sanders caught at YSU16, for 10 yards to the YSU15, out of bounds at YSU15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.8%
(00:12) Shotgun #0 T.Mills rush middle for 2 yards gain to the YSU17 (#30 G.Grayton; #25 T.Wallace)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
98.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the YSU20 (#25 T.Wallace)Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
98.9%
(14:19) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short right to #1 L.Wyche-El thrown to YSU25 QB hurried by #22 G.GodfreySimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+5
98.9%
PENALTY YSU False Start (#21 R.Davidson) 5 yards from YSU20 to YSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.0%
(14:09) #37 E.Anderson punt 53 yards to the UK32 #12 B.Coffman return 8 yards to the UK40 (#14 D.Julius)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0399% → 100%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.0%
(13:59) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the UK48 (#7 R.Collins III)Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+15
99.1%
(13:20) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush left for 15 yards gain to the YSU37 (#7 R.Collins III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
(12:56) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete deep middle to #19 K.Darby caught at YSU13, for 37 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:48, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.9%
(12:47) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short right to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at YSU38, for 19 yards to the YSU44 (#13 C.Reyes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
99.9%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK32, for 28 yards to the UK28 (#5 J.Castell; #24 J.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
(11:41) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short right to #17 A.McDonald thrown to UK11 broken up by #13 C.Reyes QB hurried by #90 M.Humphrey-GraceSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
(11:35) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Gardner thrown to UK35Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
(11:29) Shotgun #4 A.Gardner rush left for 4 yards gain to the UK24 (#4 A.Smith)Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
99.9%
(10:51) Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass incomplete short middle to #1 L.Wyche-El thrown to UK18, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
(10:48) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UK30 (#21 R.Davidson)Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+13
99.9%
(10:06) #8 M.Skinner rush right for 11 yards gain (3) to the UK41 (#0 J.Williams-West), out of bounds PENALTY UK Holding (#12 B.Coffman) 10 yards from UK33 to UK23Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+28
99.9%
(09:37) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #8 M.Skinner caught at UK20, for 28 yards to the YSU49 (#22 D.Holman; #45 M.Wright Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
(08:49) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #83 P.Jean caught at UK49, for 1 yard to the YSU48 (#21 R.Davidson) PENALTY UK Holding (#6 S.Carr) 10 yards from YSU48 to UK42Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 19
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
(08:24) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK45 (#97 D.Kirby; #13 D.Inglis)Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
99.9%
(07:50) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #83 P.Jean thrown to UK50Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+38
99.9%
(07:46) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #12 B.Coffman caught at UK41, for 38 yards to the YSU17 (#0 J.Williams-West), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
(07:02) Shotgun #0 M.Carter, Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the YSU12 (#90 C.Greene; #97 D.Kirby)Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
(06:18) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #5 J.Ferguson caught at YSU15, for 2 yards to the YSU10 (#0 J.Williams-West)Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
99.9%
(05:39) #3 K.Minchey pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to YSU00 broken up by #19 B.Chambers Jr.Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
(05:29) #88 A.Zouagui field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti), clock 05:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
(05:28) Shotgun #0 T.Mills rush middle for 2 yards gain to the YSU27 (#13 C.Reyes)Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
(04:48) Shotgun #10 M.Lewis pass complete short right to #0 T.Mills caught at YSU25, for 3 yards to the YSU30 (#25 T.Wallace)Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
(04:11) Shotgun #10 M.Lewis pass incomplete short middle to #23 Z.Neal thrown to YSU42 PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#96 D.Wiseman) 15 yards from YSU30 to YSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
(04:06) Shotgun #10 M.Lewis pass incomplete short left thrown to UK45 QB hurried by #25 T.Wallace and #92 B.Duncum. #25 T.Wallace injured on the playSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-4
99.9%
(03:56) Shotgun #10 M.Lewis sacked for loss of 4 yards to the YSU41 (#32 D.Smith)Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(03:17) Shotgun #10 M.Lewis pass incomplete short right to #0 T.Mills thrown to YSU50Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
(03:08) #37 E.Anderson punt 51 yards to the UK08 #36 A.Weber return 4 yards to the UK12 (#18 D.Tunis; #33 D.Nittoli)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
(02:59) Shotgun #28 A.Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UK20 (#36 R.Owens Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
(02:15) Shotgun #28 A.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK25 (#49 A.Snyder; #45 M.Wright Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 C.Wither rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK28 (#23 S.Henderson)Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
(01:14) Kneel down by #10 C.Wither at UK27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
(00:32) Kneel down by #10 C.Wither at UK26 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Brungard pass complete short middle to #1 L.Wyche-El caught at UK00, for 6 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:20, 1ST DOWN #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt good (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer)
-3.1
TD · Q2 11:30
(11:36) Shotgun #3 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #8 M.Skinner caught at YSU12, for 10 yards to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #88 A.Zouagui kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti)
+2.4
TD · Q3 3:41
(03:45) Shotgun #7 J.Gilbert rush left for 9 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41 #24 A.Lastovka kick attempt failed (H: #37 E.Anderson, LS: #44 N.Boozer)
-1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com