Try the model
MIA

Miami 10 at Texas A&M 3

TA&M
2025 · College Football Playoff First Round Game · Dec 20, 2025 · Kyle Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:51 · (01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 T.White pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Bethel-Roman thrown to MIA35, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:05: (07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 0 yards to the TAMU47 (#0 K.Scott; #1 M.Toure) — TA&M win probability +15.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55: Timeout Texas A&M, clock 01:55 — TA&M win probability +17.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:51: (01:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU11 (#16 N.Mikhail; #18 T.Searcy) — MIA win probability +18.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50: Timeout Texas A&M, clock 01:50 — TA&M win probability +18.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 1:44: Malachi Toney 11 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick) — MIA win probability +51.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:17TA&M 4th & 11 at MIA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:27MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:54MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:16MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:41TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:30MIA 4th & 14 at TA&M 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03MIA 4th & 2 at TA&M 22, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:34MIA 4th & 3 at TA&M 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:13MIA 4th & 7 at TA&M 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:33TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:33MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:03TA&M 4th & 8 at MIA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−5.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−16.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:02TA&M 4th & 9 at MIA 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−2.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q4 1:44MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 32 yds · 5:3565% → 64%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU25, for 9 yards to the TAMU34 (#6 X.Lucas)Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
64.6%
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Craver thrown to TAMU37Similar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
64.5%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU35 (#7 Z.Poyser; #22 C.Pruitt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.5%
(14:00) Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TAMU40 (#1 M.Toure; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
64.6%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #7 K.Concepcion thrown to TAMU50Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
64.5%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TAMU45 (#1 M.Toure), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
64.6%
(12:51) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU41, for 1 yard to the TAMU46 (#4 R.Bain Jr.; #24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
64.6%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU49 (#1 M.Toure; #7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
64.6%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIA42 (#1 M.Toure; #0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
64.8%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #3 A.Bethel-Roman caught at MIA37, for 6 yards to the MIA36 (#6 X.Lucas)Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-3
64.8%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #2 T.Bussey caught at MIA40, for 3 yards loss to the MIA39 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+1
64.7%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA38 (#18 A.Blount; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+5
64.4%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#60 T.Zuhn III) 5 yards from MIA38 to MIA43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
64.4%
(09:23) #37 T.White punt 35 yards to the MIA08, out of bounds at MIA08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3936% → 36%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
64.5%
(09:16) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at MIA08, for 3 yards to the MIA11 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #4 W.Lee III)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+7
64.1%
(08:44) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA18 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #11 T.Onyedim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
64.1%
(07:58) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA20 (#2 D.Ricks)Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
63.9%
(07:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #87 A.Bauman caught at MIA19, for 3 yards to the MIA23 (#27 D.Sanford)Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
64.1%
(06:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #0 K.Marion thrown to MIA31 broken up by #4 W.Lee IIISimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
64.4%
(06:33) #94 D.Joyce punt 39 yards to the TAMU38, out of bounds at TAMU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1165% → 65%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
64.5%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU44 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
64.9%
(05:50) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #4 R.Owens II caught at TAMU45, for 7 yards to the MIA49 (#7 Z.Poyser; #10 R.Aguirre, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
64.9%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #87 N.Boerkircher caught at MIA38, for 19 yards to the MIA30 (#8 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
65.5%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at MIA34, for 1 yard to the MIA29 (#31 W.Bissainthe), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-2
65.4%
(04:11) Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MIA31 (#0 K.Scott), fumble by #10 M.Reed recovered by MIA #18 A.Blount at MIA31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1137% → 36%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
63.5%
(04:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 10 yards gain to the MIA41 (#4 W.Lee III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
62.7%
(03:16) Shotgun #9 E.Lofton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA45 (#5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
62.5%
(02:52) Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass incomplete deep right to #9 E.Lofton thrown to TAMU24Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-1
63.2%
(02:45) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at MIA42, for 1 yard loss to the MIA44 (#21 T.York)Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 7
OWN 44
-4
63.6%
(02:03) #94 D.Joyce punt 39 yards to the TAMU17 muffed by #7 K.Concepcion at TAMU17 recovered by TAMU #7 K.Concepcion at TAMU13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5764% → 63%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
64.3%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush right for 4 yards gain to the TAMU17 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
64.3%
(01:20) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 10 yards gain to the TAMU27, out of bounds at TAMU27, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
64.6%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush left for 2 yards loss to the TAMU25 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
64.3%
(00:17) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Bethel-Roman thrown to TAMU30Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+1
63.8%
(00:13) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #17 T.Melin Öhrström caught at TAMU20, for 1 yard to the TAMU26 (#8 J.Thomas; #0 K.Scott)Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+4
63.4%
(15:00) #37 T.White punt 44 yards to the MIA30 #10 M.Toney return 4 yards to the MIA34 (#27 D.Sanford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2637% → 36%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
62.9%
(14:50) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA38 (#27 D.Sanford; #5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
62.0%
(14:13) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.Trader thrown to TAMU20Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-6
62.6%
(14:07) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIA32 (#11 T.Onyedim), fumble by #11 C.Beck recovered by MIA #4 M.Fletcher Jr. at MIA32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
64.0%
(13:26) #94 D.Joyce punt 38 yards to the TAMU30 #7 K.Concepcion return 0 yards to the TAMU30 (#22 C.Pruitt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7KICKOFF
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:5665% → 66%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+59
64.6%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep left to #1 M.Craver caught at MIA21, for 59 yards to the MIA11 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
66.6%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA10 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
66.7%
(12:31) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA00Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
66.1%
(12:24) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #2 T.Bussey caught at MIA05, for 5 yards to the MIA05 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:0837% → 37%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
63.2%
(11:32) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 17 yards gain to the MIA30 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #17 A.Regis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
62.6%
(10:55) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at MIA30, for 1 yard loss to the MIA29 (#8 J.Shaw)Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+3
62.8%
(10:17) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA32 (#4 W.Lee III; #9 C.Howell)Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
62.9%
PENALTY MIA Delay Of Game 5 yards from MIA32 to MIA27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+4
63.3%
(09:07) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #87 A.Bauman caught at MIA25, for 4 yards to the MIA31 (#21 T.York; #8 J.Shaw)Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
63.5%
(08:22) #94 D.Joyce punt 41 yards to the TAMU28 fair catch by #2 T.Bussey at TAMU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:3065% → 63%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.6%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 0 yards to the TAMU28 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
64.1%
(07:36) Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TAMU36 (#8 J.Thomas; #41 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
64.9%
PENALTY TAMU False Start (#71 C.Bisontis) 5 yards from TAMU36 to TAMU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+4
63.9%
(06:39) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #22 E.Smith caught at TAMU23, for 4 yards to the TAMU35 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+55
63.3%
(05:58) #37 T.White punt 45 yards to the MIA20 #10 M.Toney return 55 yards to the TAMU25 (#3 M.Ratcliffe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0243% → 39%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
57.1%
(05:40) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the TAMU24 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #17 A.Regis)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
56.9%
(05:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at TAMU29, for 1 yard to the TAMU23 (#5 D.Hicks; #18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-6
57.8%
(04:14) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TAMU29 (#25 D.Brooks)Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
61.2%
(03:34) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 03:30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3264% → 63%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
64.4%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TAMU40 (#8 J.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
65.6%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU42 (#3 A.Mesidor; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
65.4%
(02:33) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU36, for 4 yards to the TAMU46 (#31 W.Bissainthe), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
64.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Smith thrown to TAMU46Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
63.4%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 T.White pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Bethel-Roman thrown to MIA35, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:4445% → 44%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
55.5%
(01:50) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU43 (#17 A.Regis; #21 T.York)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
55.5%
(01:15) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the TAMU44 (#27 D.Sanford; #17 A.Regis)Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+14
55.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #7 C.Daniels caught at TAMU30, for 14 yards to the TAMU30 (#4 W.Lee III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
52.9%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at TAMU22, for 8 yards to the TAMU22 (#27 D.Sanford), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Lofton thrown to TAMU23)Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
52.4%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #7 C.Daniels thrown to TAMU00Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
53.7%
(00:06) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to TAMU05Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
55.8%
(00:03) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:2042% → 50%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at MIA35, for 15 yards to the MIA40 (#2 D.Ricks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
56.4%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at MIA42, for 20 yards to the TAMU40 (#25 D.Brooks), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
55.0%
(14:02) Shotgun #0 K.Marion rush right for 4 yards loss to the TAMU44 (#18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+10
56.4%
(13:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at TAMU36, for 10 yards to the TAMU34 (#2 D.Ricks)Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+24
54.8%
(12:40) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 24 yards gain to the TAMU10 (#25 D.Brooks; #4 W.Lee III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
52.3%
(12:00) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush left for 3 yards gain to the TAMU07 (#0 S.Williams)Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.0%
(11:25) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to TAMU00Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
53.5%
(11:21) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU03 (#21 T.York; #17 A.Regis)Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
50.0%
(10:35) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 10:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14INT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5052% → 49%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.7%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Concepcion rush right for 9 yards gain to the TAMU34 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.3%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU36 (#8 J.Thomas; #99 A.Moten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
52.9%
(09:38) Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 12 yards to the TAMU24 (#3 A.Mesidor, #8 J.Thomas) PENALTY TAMU Intentional Grounding (#10 M.Reed)Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+5
50.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #8 L.Moss caught at TAMU22, for 5 yards to the TAMU29 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-36
48.9%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #13 B.Fitzgerald at MIA44 #13 B.Fitzgerald return 36 yards to the TAMU20 (#5 A.Daniels)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1156% → 52%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
43.8%
(08:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU18, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
43.4%
(07:55) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TAMU17 (#9 C.Howell)Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
44.8%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #10 M.Toney thrown to TAMU00 broken up by #21 T.YorkSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
48.0%
(07:15) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 07:13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3650% → 48%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
50.3%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU23 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.; #11 D.Blay)Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
49.9%
(06:35) Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TAMU29 (#8 J.Thomas; #10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
49.4%
(05:57) Shotgun #8 L.Moss rush left for 3 yards gain to the TAMU32 (#3 A.Mesidor; #29 R.Frederique, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
50.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 1 yard to the TAMU31 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
49.0%
(04:30) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 K.Concepcion caught at TAMU32, for 7 yards to the TAMU38 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.)Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
51.5%
(03:50) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Concepcion thrown to TAMU50Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+13
48.2%
(03:43) #37 T.White punt 44 yards to the MIA18 #10 M.Toney return 13 yards to the MIA31 (#27 D.Sanford; #33 J.Kerr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:5355% → 55%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
45.1%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 13 yards gain to the MIA44 (#8 J.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
42.6%
(02:52) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA45 (#17 A.Regis; #5 D.Hicks)Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
42.5%
(02:16) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at MIA44, for 4 yards to the MIA49 (#3 M.Ratcliffe; #4 W.Lee III)Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+3
41.9%
(01:35) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the TAMU48 (#10 M.Jones; #11 T.Onyedim)Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
43.6%
PENALTY MIA Delay Of Game 5 yards from TAMU48 to MIA47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
45.0%
(00:39) #94 D.Joyce punt 37 yards to the TAMU16 fair catch by #2 T.Bussey at TAMU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 7:3047% → 60%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
47.3%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TAMU08 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+15
45.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #3 A.Bethel-Roman caught at TAMU20, for 15 yards to the TAMU23 (#3 A.Mesidor; #29 R.Frederique, Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+13
45.6%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #3 A.Bethel-Roman caught at TAMU36, for 13 yards to the TAMU36, out of bounds at TAMU36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.3%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush right for 2 yards gain to the TAMU38, out of bounds at TAMU38Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
48.7%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Concepcion rush left for 3 yards gain to the TAMU41 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #41 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
47.2%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at TAMU37, for 6 yards to the TAMU47 (#41 C.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.8%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU49 (#1 M.Toure; #18 A.Blount)Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
49.5%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #7 K.Concepcion caught at TAMU45, for 5 yards to the MIA46 (#8 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
49.1%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#11 D.Blay) 5 yards from MIA46 to MIA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
49.6%
(11:02) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete deep right to #7 K.Concepcion thrown to MIA20. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:02) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete deep right to #7 K.Concepcion caught at MIA20, for 21 yards to the MIA20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
47.1%
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #7 K.Concepcion thrown to MIA39Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+10
45.2%
(10:34) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #3 A.Bethel-Roman caught at MIA35, for 10 yards to the MIA31 (#24 E.O'Connor; #6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
49.8%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #1 M.Craver caught at MIA28, for 12 yards to the MIA19 (#41 C.Smith; #0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
49.7%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MIA22 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+5
48.7%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA17 (#11 D.Blay; #0 K.Scott)Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
46.6%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #87 N.Boerkircher thrown to MIA17Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
60.4%
(08:06) #47 R.Bond field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #37 T.White, LS: #48 J.Graham), clock 08:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4547% → 53%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.3%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MIA41 (#25 D.Brooks; #8 J.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
47.5%
(07:19) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at MIA50, for 12 yards to the TAMU47 fumbled by #10 M.Toney at MIA49 forced by #25 D.Brooks recovered by TAMU #27 D.Sanford at TAMU47, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 3:0363% → 57%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.1%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush right for 0 yards to the TAMU47 (#0 K.Scott; #1 M.Toure)Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
62.1%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #2 T.Bussey caught at MIA48, for 11 yards to the MIA42 (#8 J.Thomas; #6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
64.2%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIA43 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+5
63.2%
(05:24) Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA38 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-3
63.0%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MIA41 (#4 R.Bain Jr.) PENALTY TAMU Personal Foul declinedSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+10
56.9%
(04:12) #37 T.White punt 37 yards to the MIA04 #10 M.Toney return 10 yards to the MIA14 (#12 N.Boadi-Owusu)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:0649% → 95%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+56
51.0%
(04:01) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 56 yards gain to the TAMU30 (#25 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
41.4%
(03:12) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU28 (#27 D.Sanford)Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+12
40.4%
(02:36) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TAMU16 (#25 D.Brooks; #4 W.Lee III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
39.1%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TAMU13 (#21 T.York; #8 J.Shaw)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
38.1%
(01:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU11 (#16 N.Mikhail; #18 T.Searcy)Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
4.8%
Malachi Toney 11 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:1111% → 15%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.4%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #22 E.Smith caught at TAMU20, for 5 yards to the TAMU30 (#0 K.Scott), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
11.9%
(01:34) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 K.Concepcion caught at TAMU34, for 7 yards to the TAMU37 (#0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (#18 A.Blount) 15 yards from TAMU37 to MIA48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
14.5%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #87 N.Boerkircher caught at MIA40, for 14 yards to the MIA34 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
17.7%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIA25 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
19.5%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Craver thrown to MIA17 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
16.1%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA19 (#35 H.Scroggins III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
16.7%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short middle to #7 K.Concepcion caught at MIA15, for 14 yards to the MIA05 (#24 E.O'Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.0%
(00:39) Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Craver thrown to MIA00Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.0%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass incomplete short middle to #4 R.Owens II thrown to MIA00 broken up by #1 M.ToureSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.0%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #13 B.Fitzgerald at MIA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
5.7%
(00:23) Kneel down by #11 C.Beck at MIA19 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:44
Malachi Toney 11 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)
-51.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:51
(01:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TAMU11 (#16 N.Mikhail; #18 T.Searcy)
-18.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50
Timeout Texas A&M, clock 01:50
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com