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NAVY

Navy 35 at Cincinnati 13

CIN
2025 · AutoZone Liberty Bowl · Jan 2, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:19 · (12:26) Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass complete short right to #29 M.Covey caught at NAV36, for 18 yards to the NAV17, out of bounds at NAV17, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−3.1Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−10.4Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:47: (10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +9.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: (00:44) #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #89 L.Hutchison caught at CIN00, for 30 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +11.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:15: (10:17) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at CIN00, for 13 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:15, 1ST DOWN #15 J.Carlson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#15 J.Johnson) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY — NAVY win probability +10.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:11: (09:11) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep middle to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to CIN06 PENALTY CIN Holding (#15 J.Johnson) 10 yards from CIN48 to CIN38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY — NAVY win probability +5.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:00: (10:01) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:09CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:29CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:26NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:41CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:24CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:19CIN 4th & 10 at NAVY 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:23NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:50CIN 4th & 6 at NAVY 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00NAVY 4th & 1 at CIN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:24CIN 4th & 19 at CIN 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:40NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:44CIN 4th & 5 at NAVY 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:59NAVY 4th & 7 at CIN 45, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:19NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:47CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:15NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:00NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4836% → 36%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN23Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.6%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush left for 1 yard loss to the CIN24 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
35.8%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to NAV42Similar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
35.9%
(14:14) #31 M.Fletcher punt 46 yards to the NAV30 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2564% → 63%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
36.0%
(14:08) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV36 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
36.1%
(13:30) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 0 yards to the NAV36 (#98 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
36.4%
(12:47) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to NAV34Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+9
36.6%
(12:46) #15 J.Carlson punt 41 yards to the CIN23 #29 M.Covey return 9 yards to the CIN32 (#49 A.Klenk)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0137% → 37%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
36.7%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN34 (#49 A.Klenk)Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
36.8%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass incomplete short left to #0 I.Johnson thrown to CIN30Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-2
36.7%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CIN32 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
36.8%
(11:35) #31 M.Fletcher punt 26 yards to the NAV42, out of bounds at NAV42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5763% → 62%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
36.7%
(11:27) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV45 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
36.8%
(10:49) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 0 yards to the NAV45 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
37.3%
(10:08) #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #46 A.Tecza caught at NAV41, for 2 yards to the NAV47 (#46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
37.7%
(09:29) #15 J.Carlson punt 39 yards to the CIN14 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at CIN14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3338% → 38%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
37.9%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN17 (#53 M.Bleazard), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
38.0%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 4 yards gain to the CIN21 (#40 C.Robinson)Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+1
38.0%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN22 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
37.8%
(07:46) #31 M.Fletcher punt 41 yards to the NAV37 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 4:1562% → 66%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.0%
(07:40) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 5 yards gain to the NAV42 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
37.8%
(07:00) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NAV49 (#31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
38.0%
(06:18) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN48 (#16 J.White-McLain)Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
38.1%
(05:28) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN48 (#16 J.White-McLain; #49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+12
38.5%
(04:44) #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at CIN37, for 12 yards to the CIN36 (#25 D.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
38.5%
(04:02) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 34 yards gain to the CIN02 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.2%
(03:22) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:19 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
20 plays · 69 yds · 8:2736% → 47%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.8%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush left for 1 yard loss to the CIN24 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
35.8%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIN31 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
35.3%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN34 (#90 J.Moutome; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
35.1%
(01:30) Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN40 (#18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
36.3%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush right for 1 yard gain to the CIN41 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
35.9%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush right for 11 yards gain to the NAV48 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.0%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass incomplete short left to #21 P.Gurd thrown to NAV43Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
36.7%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush right for 6 yards gain to the NAV42 (#53 M.Bleazard; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
36.8%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NAV35 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
37.7%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NAV37 fumbled by #5 S.Jones at NAV41 recovered by CIN #74 J.Cotton at NAV37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+5
36.8%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#56 D.Buford) 5 yards from NAV37 to NAV42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+5
36.2%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV37 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+2
36.0%
(13:02) Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV35 (#49 A.Klenk)Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+18
35.1%
(12:26) Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass complete short right to #29 M.Covey caught at NAV36, for 18 yards to the NAV17, out of bounds at NAV17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
38.1%
(11:56) Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV11 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
38.1%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV11 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+5
37.3%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush left for 5 yards gain to the NAV06 (#96 L.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
46.5%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1458% → 59%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.0%
(09:45) #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 14 yards gain to the NAV39 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.1%
(09:02) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep left to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to CIN38 broken up by #25 D.JamesSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
41.4%
(08:56) #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 5 yards gain to the NAV44 (#22 J.Thompson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+2
40.1%
(08:10) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV46 (#90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+22
41.3%
(07:33) #15 J.Carlson punt 45 yards to the CIN09 #29 M.Covey return 22 yards to the CIN31 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2345% → 46%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
44.9%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the CIN33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
45.0%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 5 yards gain to the CIN38 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
45.9%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#74 J.Cotton) 5 yards from CIN38 to CIN33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+14
44.3%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush left for 14 yards gain to the CIN47 (#56 M.Parker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
47.5%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN48 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
47.5%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN50 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
50
+1
47.2%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass complete short right to #29 M.Covey caught at CIN50, for 1 yard to the NAV49 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
45.7%
(03:59) #31 M.Fletcher punt 49 yards to the NAV00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:0357% → 72%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.7%
(03:48) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAV22 (#13 P.Williams)Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
43.0%
(03:10) #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 6 yards gain to the NAV28 (#18 M.Saboor; #46 A.Peek Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
42.9%
(02:37) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV30 (#49 J.Dingle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
42.7%
(02:00) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 1 yard loss to the NAV29 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at NAV31, out of bounds at NAV29Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+11
43.8%
(01:55) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #23 C.Robinson caught at NAV31, for 11 yards to the NAV40 (#18 M.Saboor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Targeting (#18 M.Saboor) 15 yards from NAV40 to CIN45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:55) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #23 C.Robinson caught at NAV31, for 10 yards to the NAV39 (#18 M.Saboor), out of bounds)Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
40.2%
(01:31) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN40 (#31 S.Coleman; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
40.0%
(01:12) #23 C.Robinson rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN37 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
40.3%
(01:06) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN36 (#19 C.Jones)Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
41.9%
(01:01) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN30 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.4%
(00:48) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep right to #24 B.Chatman thrown to CIN00Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
27.6%
(00:44) #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #89 L.Hutchison caught at CIN00, for 30 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3334% → 33%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.9%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short right to #4 C.Allen caught at CIN23, for 5 yards to the CIN30, out of bounds at CIN30Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
34.3%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short left to #29 M.Covey caught at CIN25, for 1 yard to the CIN31 (#14 J.Campbell)Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
32.9%
(00:02) PENALTY CIN False Start (#11 J.Royer) 5 yards from CIN31 to CIN26. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:3369% → 83%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
30.7%
(14:52) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at NAV32, for 26 yards to the CIN49 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
28.4%
(14:14) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 12 yards gain to the CIN37, out of bounds at CIN37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
28.2%
(13:35) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at CIN33, for 5 yards to the CIN32 (#25 D.James), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
27.8%
(12:56) #24 B.Chatman rush right for 7 yards gain to the CIN25 (#49 J.Dingle), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
27.4%
(12:16) #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #24 B.Chatman caught at CIN24, for 1 yard to the CIN24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
27.3%
(11:38) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIN18 (#46 A.Peek Jr.; #15 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
27.8%
(11:00) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN13 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
17.0%
(10:17) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at CIN00, for 13 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:15, 1ST DOWN #15 J.Carlson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#15 J.Johnson) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5420% → 22%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
19.7%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 36 yards gain to the NAV39 (#18 P.Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
21.7%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV36 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-16
21.6%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Allen rush middle for 16 yards loss to the CIN48 fumbled by #4 C.Allen at NAV47 recovered by NAV #14 J.Campbell at CIN48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1184% → 84%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
15.8%
(09:11) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep middle to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to CIN06 PENALTY CIN Holding (#15 J.Johnson) 10 yards from CIN48 to CIN38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
15.7%
(09:03) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN34 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at CIN38 recovered by CIN #22 J.Thompson at CIN34, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:3019% → 17%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
19.3%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN35 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
18.4%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short right to #8 N.Jennings caught at CIN40, for 5 yards to the CIN40 (#56 M.Parker; #35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
19.1%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg sacked for loss of 5 yards to the CIN35 (#90 J.Moutome), fumble by #16 B.Lichtenberg recovered by NAV #0 K.McShan at CIN35 #0 K.McShan return 11 yards to the CIN24 (#21 P.Gurd) PENALTY NAV Offside (#0 K.McShan) 5 yards from CIN40 to CIN45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.8%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass incomplete short right to #21 P.Gurd thrown to CIN47 QB hurried by #58 C.CauleySimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
19.5%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN47 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+19
19.1%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short right to #29 M.Covey caught at CIN45, for 4 yards to the NAV49 (#35 L.Pirris) PENALTY CIN Personal Foul (#9 J.Caldwell) 15 yards from NAV49 to CIN36Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
17.0%
(06:24) #31 M.Fletcher punt 53 yards to the NAV11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3585% → 85%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
15.1%
(06:19) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 2 yards loss to the NAV09 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+8
14.9%
(05:38) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at NAV14, for 8 yards to the NAV17 (#25 D.James)Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
14.7%
(04:56) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to NAV27Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+22
15.1%
(04:51) #15 J.Carlson punt 53 yards to the CIN30 #29 M.Covey return 22 yards to the NAV48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5018% → 17%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
18.2%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV45 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
18.0%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Caffey rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAV44 (#40 C.Robinson)Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
17.7%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush left for 5 yards gain to the NAV39 (#40 C.Robinson)Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+4
17.3%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#83 D.Zahursky) 4 yards from NAV39 to NAV43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
16.8%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones pass incomplete short left to #8 N.Jennings thrown to NAV32, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
16 plays · 56 yds · 7:3888% → 98%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
11.9%
(02:41) #24 B.Chatman rush right for 9 yards gain to the CIN47 (#31 S.Coleman), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
11.3%
(02:09) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN42 (#46 A.Peek Jr.; #22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
11.4%
PENALTY NAV Illegal Snap (#69 C.Nichols) 5 yards from CIN42 to CIN47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+10
11.5%
(01:06) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 10 yards gain to the CIN37 (#19 C.Jones)Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
10.6%
(00:24) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN33 (#94 K.Smith)Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
10.4%
(14:56) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN30 (#31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
9.2%
(14:27) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush right for 4 yards gain to the CIN26, out of bounds at CIN26Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
8.6%
(13:55) #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 4 yards gain to the CIN22 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
8.7%
(13:32) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN19 (#44 M.Weedon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
8.2%
(12:54) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to CIN14Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
8.3%
(12:49) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 5 yards gain to the CIN14 (#0 M.McDoom), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
7.8%
(12:07) #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 7 yards gain to the CIN07 (#16 J.White-McLain; #46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
7.1%
(11:26) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN05 (#46 A.Peek Jr.; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
6.9%
(10:43) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIN03 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.8%
(10:01) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:573% → 2%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.5%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short middle to #87 G.Grover caught at CIN30, for 11 yards to the CIN36 (#58 C.Cauley; #56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
2.5%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush left for 15 yards gain to the NAV49, out of bounds at NAV49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.7%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short right to #29 M.Covey caught at NAV48, for 4 yards to the NAV45 (#0 K.McShan)Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
2.7%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV45 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
2.5%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short middle to #0 I.Johnson caught at NAV30, for 15 yards to the NAV30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
2.8%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV27 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+23
2.1%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short middle to #21 P.Gurd caught at NAV23, for 23 yards to the NAV04 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.7%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at NAV00, for 4 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:52 #16 B.Lichtenberg pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:4399% → 99%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.4%
(06:51) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV31 (#39 C.Lewis)Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
1.1%
(06:06) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV34 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
1.1%
(05:28) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV36 (#31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
1.0%
(04:46) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV40 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+12
0.9%
(04:05) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 12 yards gain to the CIN48 (#19 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
0.7%
(03:21) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN45 (#98 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
0.7%
(03:13) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN45 (#90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
0.6%
(03:10) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to CIN35Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
0.7%
(03:05) #15 J.Carlson punt 43 yards to the CIN02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-5
0.7%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass intercepted by #58 C.Cauley at CIN05 QB hurried by #56 M.Parker #58 C.Cauley return 5 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:54 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:481% → 0%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.8%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg sacked for loss of 4 yards to the CIN21 (#0 K.McShan)Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
0.7%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN40Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
0.7%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Lichtenberg pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN19, for 6 yards to the CIN27 (#18 P.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.3%
(01:57) #31 M.Fletcher punt 44 yards to the NAV29 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23Uncategorized
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
0.5%
(01:52) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV31 (#49 J.Dingle; #39 C.Lewis)Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
0.4%
(01:44) Shotgun #37 S.Reynolds rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV37 (#39 C.Lewis; #49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
0.4%
(01:05) #26 M.Barrow rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV40 (#20 C.Crite), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.3%
(00:21) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV42 (#39 C.Lewis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
(00:44) #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #89 L.Hutchison caught at CIN00, for 30 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-11.8
TD · Q3 10:15
(10:17) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at CIN00, for 13 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:15, 1ST DOWN #15 J.Carlson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#15 J.Johnson) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY
-10.8
TD · Q2 9:47
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:47. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com