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IOWA

Iowa 34 at Vanderbilt 27

VAN
2025 · ReliaQuest Bowl · Dec 31, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+3.8VAN 58.0%Brock Taylor 41 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q2 7:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:49 · Brock Taylor 41 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior+7.9Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:50: DJ Vonnahme 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick) — IOWA win probability +15.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:37: Tre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +15.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:41: Joseph McVay 16 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +22.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:19: Diego Pavia 11 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +20.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:58: Brock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +20.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 8:27VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:10VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:49VAN 4th & 6 at IOWA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:57IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:08VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:02IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:23VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:54IOWA 4th & 1 at VAN 29, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%−3.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:13IOWA 4th & 4 at VAN 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:50IOWA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:37VAN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:41VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:35IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:19VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5737% → 38%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short left to #21 K.Wetjen thrown to Iowa28 QB hurried by #7 M.SewellSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
62.6%
PENALTY Iowa False Start (#70 B.Stephens) 5 yards from Iowa28 to Iowa23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+8
62.6%
(14:52) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Iowa31 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+44
62.6%
(14:12) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 44 yards gain to the Vandy25 (#8 C.Heard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Vandy Personal Foul (#2 R.Fontenette) 13 yards from Vandy25 to Vandy12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
62.4%
(13:39) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 8 yards gain to the Vandy04 (#7 M.Sewell; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
61.6%
Kamari Moulton 4 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1362% → 60%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
61.7%
(12:48) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy23, for 3 yards to the Vandy22 (#2 T.Hall), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
61.4%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 10 yards gain to the Vandy32 (#36 J.Montgomery; #1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
61.2%
(11:19) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy35, for 19 yards to the Iowa49 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #4 K.Entringer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
61.3%
(10:36) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Iowa48, for 4 yards to the Iowa45 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
61.2%
(09:51) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Iowa46, for 3 yards to the Iowa42 (#3 J.Watson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-9
60.7%
(09:08) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Vandy49 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+4
59.7%
(08:31) #38 N.Haberer punt 38 yards to the Iowa13 #21 K.Wetjen return 4 yards to the Iowa17 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3INT
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:2340% → 43%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
59.6%
(08:25) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Iowa20 (#53 G.Seabrooks III)Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
59.3%
(07:50) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Iowa26, for 6 yards to the Iowa26 (#4 M.Hight)Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
58.9%
(07:15) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Iowa28 (#94 B.Mann) PENALTY Vandy Offside (#96 K.Sydnor) 5 yards from Iowa26 to Iowa31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
58.9%
(06:50) #4 J.Patterson rush right for 2 yards gain to the Iowa33 (#92 J.Stone)Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+16
58.6%
(06:10) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 16 yards gain to the Iowa49 (#2 R.Fontenette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
57.7%
(05:28) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Iowa45 (#9 K.Koht)Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+51
57.9%
(04:48) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Iowa50, for 51 yards to the Vandy04 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.6%
(03:59) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #26 X.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.6%
(03:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass intercepted by #4 M.Hight at Vandy00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4158% → 56%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.1%
(03:56) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa48 broken up by #2 T.HallSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.0%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #28 S.Alexander caught at Vandy25, for 5 yards to the Vandy25 (#36 J.Montgomery; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
57.6%
(03:04) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Vandy19 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
56.4%
(02:18) #38 N.Haberer punt 59 yards to the Iowa22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1043% → 44%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
57.0%
(02:10) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 1 yard gain to the Iowa23 (#10 L.Patterson; #99 J.Singh)Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
56.5%
(01:28) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at Iowa24, for 7 yards to the Iowa30 (#22 B.Cowan), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
55.9%
(00:47) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Iowa31 (#2 R.Fontenette; #95 L.Zunk)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
55.8%
(14:58) #9 R.Dakin punt 51 yards to the Vandy18 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:4956% → 58%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
56.0%
(14:54) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Vandy21 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+11
55.8%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at Vandy30, for 11 yards to the Vandy32 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
55.8%
(13:28) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 5 yards to the Vandy27 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+9
54.9%
(12:42) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy35, for 9 yards to the Vandy36 (#2 T.Hall; #4 K.Entringer) PENALTY Iowa Roughing The Passer (#57 W.Hubert) 15 yards from Vandy36 to Iowa49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
56.9%
(12:12) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Iowa47 (#57 W.Hubert; #48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
56.7%
(11:31) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Iowa48, for 9 yards to the Iowa38 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.5%
(10:44) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa05Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
56.4%
(10:38) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Iowa35 (#44 K.Merrieweather; #90 B.Allen)Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+8
55.7%
(09:54) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Iowa30, for 8 yards to the Iowa27 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
56.7%
(09:10) Shotgun #6 T.Richardson rush right for 2 yards loss to the Iowa29 (#96 B.Hawthorne), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+6
56.0%
(08:33) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #3 T.Brown caught at Iowa28, for 6 yards to the Iowa23 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
54.2%
(07:57) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Hoskins thrown to Iowa23 broken up by #91 J.PaceSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
58.0%
Brock Taylor 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:4444% → 44%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.8%
(07:49) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at Iowa26, for 2 yards to the Iowa27 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
55.6%
(07:14) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards loss to the Iowa24 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
56.6%
(06:37) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Iowa37, for 13 yards to the Iowa37 (#17 M.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
54.5%
(05:58) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 5 yards gain to the Iowa42 (#17 M.Davis), out of bounds PENALTY Iowa Holding (#59 T.Lauck) 10 yards from Iowa37 to Iowa27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+20
55.6%
(05:36) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Iowa45, for 20 yards to the Iowa47 (#1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
53.0%
(04:32) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the Vandy49 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-10
52.4%
(03:57) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Iowa41 (#22 B.Cowan), fumble by #11 M.Gronowski recovered by Iowa #11 M.Gronowski at Iowa41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
54.8%
(03:57) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #26 X.Williams thrown to Iowa40 QB hurried by #15 Z.WoodSimilar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
56.1%
(03:57) #9 R.Dakin punt 47 yards to the Vandy12 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
15 plays · -2 yds · 3:0755% → 39%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
55.3%
(03:57) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 3 yards gain to the Vandy15 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
55.1%
(03:15) Shotgun #6 T.Richardson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Vandy17 (#3 J.Watson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+5
53.6%
PENALTY Vandy False Start (#22 M.Young) 5 yards from Vandy17 to Vandy12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+8
53.3%
(02:07) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #82 B.Coleman thrown to Vandy27, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Iowa Pass Interference (#4 K.Entringer) 8 yards from Vandy12 to Vandy20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.4%
(02:02) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep middle to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Vandy48 broken up by #2 T.HallSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
53.2%
(01:57) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy26, for 12 yards to the Vandy32 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #3 J.Watson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.8%
(01:43) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #3 T.Brown caught at Vandy35, for 5 yards to the Vandy37 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
53.3%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #16 C.Spence caught at Vandy41, for 5 yards to the Vandy42 (#36 J.Montgomery) PENALTY Vandy Holding (#50 C.Mitchell) 10 yards from Vandy37 to Vandy27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
50.6%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Hoskins thrown to Vandy28 QB hurried by #48 M.LlewellynSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 27
OWN 15
0
48.9%
(00:46) #38 N.Haberer punt 53 yards to the Iowa32, out of bounds at Iowa32 PENALTY Vandy Intentional Grounding (#38 N.Haberer)Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-6
49.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 12 yards to the Vandy15 (#90 B.Allen, #49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 27
OWN 15
+5
38.7%
(00:46) #38 N.Haberer punt 17 yards to the Vandy32, out of bounds at Vandy32 PENALTY Vandy Illegal Bat (#38 N.Haberer) 5 yards from Vandy15 to Vandy10. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
34.9%
Reece Vander Zee 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:1739% → 41%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
39.1%
(00:31) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #16 C.Spence caught at Vandy26, for 10 yards to the Vandy27 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
39.3%
(00:29) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 19 yards gain to the Vandy46 (#4 K.Entringer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.6%
(00:18) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 0 yards to the Vandy46 (#96 B.Hawthorne), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
39.9%
(00:12) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #28 S.Alexander caught at Vandy46, for 6 yards to the Iowa48 (#36 J.Montgomery), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
41.3%
(00:04) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep middle to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3740% → 36%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
39.5%
(14:51) Shotgun #6 T.Richardson rush right for 4 yards gain to the Vandy32 (#1 X.Nwankpa), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
39.2%
(14:12) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 1 yard gain to the Vandy33 (#48 M.Llewellyn), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+4
37.8%
(13:27) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy37, for 4 yards to the Vandy37 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
36.9%
(12:42) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 1 yard gain to the Vandy38 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #43 K.Sharar) PENALTY Vandy Illegal Formation 5 yards from Vandy37 to Vandy32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+21
35.5%
(12:19) #38 N.Haberer punt 47 yards to the Iowa21 #21 K.Wetjen return 21 yards to the Iowa42 (#44 G.Fisher)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 3:1065% → 84%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
35.0%
(12:07) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 5 yards gain to the Iowa47 (#53 G.Seabrooks III)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
34.4%
(11:27) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Iowa50, for 6 yards to the Vandy47 (#10 L.Patterson; #11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
33.2%
(10:52) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #7 D.Howard caught at Vandy41, for 6 yards to the Vandy41 (#3 K.Taylor)Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+15
32.7%
(10:19) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Vandy26 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
30.8%
(09:37) #21 K.Wetjen rush right for 5 yards gain to the Vandy21 (#2 R.Fontenette), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
15.8%
DJ Vonnahme 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
32.7%
Tre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2768% → 67%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.4%
(08:36) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 2 yards gain to the Iowa27 (#17 M.Davis; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
31.7%
(07:58) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 5 yards loss to the Iowa22 (#99 J.Singh)Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
32.5%
(07:15) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Howard thrown to Iowa24 broken up by #22 B.CowanSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
33.1%
(07:08) #9 R.Dakin punt 49 yards to the Vandy29, out of bounds at Vandy29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3332% → 30%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
31.9%
(07:01) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa32Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
31.4%
(06:55) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vandy33 (#91 J.Pace)Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
30.5%
(06:10) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #5 R.Hoskins caught at Vandy35, for 5 yards to the Vandy38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
30.3%
(05:25) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #28 S.Alexander thrown to Vandy39, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2372% → 82%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
27.6%
(05:22) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vandy36 (#22 B.Cowan; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
26.8%
(04:50) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #15 R.Vander Zee thrown to Vandy33 broken up by #17 M.DavisSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
27.0%
(04:44) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Vandy29 (#24 N.Rinaldi; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+47
18.4%
Drew Stevens 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0021% → 45%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
21.0%
(03:47) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Vandy39 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+21
22.1%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #16 C.Spence caught at Iowa45, for 21 yards to the Iowa40 (#2 T.Hall; #36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
23.0%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #3 T.Brown caught at Iowa36, for 4 yards to the Iowa36 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
23.1%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Iowa27 (#36 J.Montgomery; #43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
22.7%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to Iowa18Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
22.1%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 11 yards gain to the Iowa16 (#1 X.Nwankpa), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
22.4%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to Iowa00Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
44.5%
Joseph McVay 16 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:5368% → 89%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
32.3%
(01:34) #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #85 T.Meyer thrown to Iowa40 QB hurried by #96 K.SydnorSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+21
32.7%
(01:27) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Iowa45, for 21 yards to the Vandy49 (#7 M.Sewell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
29.4%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #5 J.Gill caught at Vandy36, for 13 yards to the Vandy36 (#7 M.Sewell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
29.0%
(00:24) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 32 yards gain to the Vandy04 (#3 K.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
27.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Vandy01 (#10 L.Patterson; #95 L.Zunk)Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.4%
(14:10) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 0 yards to the Vandy01 (#99 J.Singh; #94 B.Mann) PENALTY Vandy Offside (#96 K.Sydnor). NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.2%
PENALTY Vandy Offside (#94 B.Mann). NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.7%
Mark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:5516% → 39%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
16.2%
(13:28) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #28 S.Alexander caught at Vandy28, for 8 yards to the Vandy36 (#2 T.Hall)Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
16.8%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy39, for 5 yards to the Vandy41 (#2 T.Hall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+46
17.3%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete deep left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Iowa25, for 46 yards to the Iowa13 (#3 J.Watson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
18.8%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Iowa11 (#51 L.Gaffney; #95 A.Graves)Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
39.0%
Diego Pavia 11 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 6:5973% → 91%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.9%
(11:18) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Iowa26 (#53 G.Seabrooks III; #99 J.Singh)Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
24.3%
(10:43) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Iowa30, for 4 yards to the Iowa30 (#4 M.Hight)Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
23.2%
(10:05) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at Iowa35, for 5 yards to the Iowa35 (#4 M.Hight), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
22.2%
(09:26) #26 X.Williams rush left for 7 yards gain to the Iowa42 (#27 J.Lackey)Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
20.1%
(08:38) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards gain to the Iowa44 (#15 Z.Wood)Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
19.7%
(07:55) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Iowa46 (#96 K.Sydnor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
18.0%
(07:15) #26 X.Williams rush left for 0 yards to the Iowa46 (#10 L.Patterson; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
17.4%
(06:35) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Iowa49 (#22 B.Cowan)Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+19
15.7%
(05:54) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Vandy40, for 19 yards to the Vandy32 (#7 M.Sewell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.5%
(05:08) #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the Vandy32 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
11.5%
(05:03) #21 K.Wetjen rush right for 2 yards loss to the Vandy34 (#6 J.Matthews), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+8
11.8%
(04:21) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at Vandy28, for 8 yards to the Vandy26 (#1 D.Carter)Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
8.9%
Drew Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:108% → 29%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
7.7%
(04:08) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #5 R.Hoskins thrown to Vandy31 PENALTY Iowa Roughing The Passer (#95 A.Graves) 15 yards from Vandy21 to Vandy36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
8.3%
(04:02) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right thrown to Vandy30 PENALTY Vandy Intentional Grounding (#2 D.Pavia)Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+37
7.4%
(03:53) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy45, for 37 yards to the Iowa35 (#3 J.Watson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.9%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep middle to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa00 broken up by #6 Z.LutmerSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
9.8%
(03:30) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #5 R.Hoskins thrown to Iowa01 QB hurried by #43 K.ShararSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+16
8.2%
(03:25) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Iowa20, for 16 yards to the Iowa19 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
8.0%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #6 T.Richardson thrown to Iowa01Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+37
28.8%
Brock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:1291% → 95%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
9.5%
(02:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 9 yards gain to the Iowa44 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
8.3%
(02:12) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 0 yards to the Iowa44 (#15 Z.Wood; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+11
8.9%
(02:03) #26 X.Williams rush left for 11 yards gain to the Vandy45 (#11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Vandy Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
4.5%
(01:55) Kneel down by #11 M.Gronowski at Vandy48 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-2
4.6%
(01:16) Kneel down by #11 M.Gronowski at Vandy50 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 15
50
-2
4.9%
(00:36) Kneel down by #11 M.Gronowski at Iowa48 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:41
Joseph McVay 16 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
+22.1
FG · Q4 2:58
Brock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal
+20.9
TD · Q4 11:19
Diego Pavia 11 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)
+20.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com