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USC

USC 27 at TCU 30

TCU
2025 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 30, 2025 · Alamodome
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2OTQ2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Jeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2OTQ2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:49: (00:53) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #15 J.Richardson caught at TCU00, for 21 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49, 1ST DOWN #88 T.Tupou pass attempt Successful — USC win probability +27.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:24: (04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) PENALTY USC Offside declined — TCU win probability +31.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. FG · Q4 0:02: (00:02) #34 K.Lemmermann field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler), clock 00:00 — TCU win probability +55.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Ryon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal — USC win probability +15.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Jeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals — TCU win probability +39.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:16USC 4th & 8 at USC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06USC 4th & 3 at TCU 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:25TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:15TCU 4th & 2 at USC 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−1.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−7.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18USC 4th & 4 at TCU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:27TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:02USC 4th & 9 at USC 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:51TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−3.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:42TCU 4th & 19 at TCU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−5.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:37USC 4th & 8 at TCU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:44USC 4th & 11 at USC 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−7.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:02TCU 4th & 5 at USC 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−22.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−33.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 13:36TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:57USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:58TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:49USC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:24TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3362% → 60%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
38.5%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC25 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
38.7%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at USC24, for 2 yards to the USC27 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
38.9%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #15 J.Richardson caught at USC37, for 10 yards to the USC37 (#7 C.Canada), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
38.9%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC38 (#4 N.Obiazor; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
39.1%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC39 (#2 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
39.3%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #16 T.Hines thrown to TCU49Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
39.6%
(12:21) #80 S.Johnson punt 46 yards to the TCU15 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1740% → 40%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
39.5%
(12:14) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 7 yards gain to the TCU22 (#25 M.Williams)Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
39.7%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU24 (#9 K.Silver)Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-1
39.6%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU23 (#1 K.Crawford; #24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
39.6%
(11:01) #31 E.Craw punt 50 yards to the USC27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:2560% → 60%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
39.9%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #16 T.Hines caught at USC46, for 23 yards to the USC50 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
50
+9
39.6%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU41 (#4 N.Obiazor; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+11
39.7%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TCU30 (#26 V.Glover; #35 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
39.8%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #10 J.Johnson caught at TCU27, for 6 yards to the TCU24 (#7 C.Canada)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
39.6%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU25 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+2
40.1%
(07:55) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU23 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
40.1%
(07:09) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 07:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3640% → 40%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
(07:05) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete deep right to #1 E.McAlister thrown to USC50. #55 R.Strickland injured on the playSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.3%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU24, for 1 yard to the TCU26 (#27 A.Graham)Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
39.8%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU28 (#10 B.Shelby)Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
39.7%
(05:36) #31 E.Craw punt 48 yards to the USC24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:4859% → 60%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
40.9%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC26 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
41.0%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #88 T.Tupou caught at USC26, for 5 yards to the USC31 (#4 N.Obiazor; #38 G.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+21
41.0%
(04:04) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at USC35, for 21 yards to the TCU48 (#21 B.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
40.2%
PENALTY USC False Start (#24 C.Tabaracci) 5 yards from TCU48 to USC47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+6
40.8%
(03:07) Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush left for 6 yards gain to the TCU47 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
39.9%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #2 J.Johnson at TCU31, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:4541% → 47%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
41.1%
(02:29) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU27, for 8 yards to the TCU39 (#2 D.Harvey), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
42.3%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU41 (#28 K.Urlacher; #10 B.Shelby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
42.3%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #13 J.Denman caught at TCU36, for 3 yards to the TCU44 (#26 E.Newby)Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+16
42.5%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush left for 16 yards gain to the USC40 (#28 K.Urlacher; #24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
43.0%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at USC32, for 14 yards to the USC26 (#17 D.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
43.7%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #0 D.Rogers caught at USC29, for 13 yards to the USC13 (#10 B.Shelby; #26 E.Newby), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
43.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush right for 8 yards gain to the USC05 (#17 D.Nicholson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
43.9%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#81 C.Curtis) 5 yards from USC05 to USC10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
44.1%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush right for 5 yards gain to the USC05 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
47.4%
(13:39) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36, 1ST DOWN #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3554% → 61%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #88 T.Tupou thrown to USC29Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.4%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at USC36, for 13 yards to the USC38 (#26 V.Glover), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
45.6%
(12:59) Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC39 (#33 M.Carroll)Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+24
46.0%
(12:18) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 24 yards gain to the TCU37 (#31 J.Simms; #12 T.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
45.3%
(11:30) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at TCU01, for 36 yards to the TCU01, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
44.6%
(10:46) #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU02 (#33 M.Carroll)Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.1%
(10:01) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:57 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5342% → 55%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.1%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU29 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.3%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Denman thrown to TCU25Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
41.6%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #6 T.Battle caught at TCU33, for 15 yards to the TCU44 (#31 J.Walker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
44.1%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short right to #1 E.McAlister thrown to TCU48Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
43.2%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU48 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+22
43.6%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete deep left to #15 T.Shelton caught at USC32, for 22 yards to the USC30 (#25 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
44.9%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 0 yards to the USC30 (#88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
44.9%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #3 M.Everhart caught at USC31, for 10 yards to the USC20 (#1 K.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
45.1%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Everhart thrown to USC15Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
45.1%
(06:55) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 8 yards gain to the USC12 (#24 C.Pierce), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
43.9%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC10 (#9 K.Silver; #24 C.Pierce) PENALTY TCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from USC12 to USC17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
44.2%
(06:00) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #15 T.Shelton caught at USC15, for 5 yards to the USC12 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+11
43.2%
(05:20) #3 M.Everhart rush right for 11 yards gain to the USC01 (#2 D.Harvey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.5%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:58 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:3849% → 53%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.6%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #16 T.Hines thrown to TCU30 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#21 B.Clark) 15 yards from USC25 to USC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
49.0%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC41 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
49.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 10 yards gain to the TCU49 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
48.3%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #88 T.Tupou caught at TCU35, for 21 yards to the TCU28 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
47.1%
(02:54) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU27 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
48.0%
(02:12) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #22 C.Simms thrown to TCU00 broken up by #21 B.Clark QB hurried by #11 D.DealSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+10
48.6%
(02:05) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #16 T.Hines caught at TCU17, for 10 yards to the TCU17 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
47.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU13 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
47.3%
(01:13) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU11 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
47.6%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #15 J.Richardson thrown to TCU00 broken up by #21 B.ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
47.5%
(00:19) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 00:18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.5%
(00:16) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU31 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:2053% → 53%
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush right for 1 yard loss to the TCU24 fumbled by #9 K.Seals at TCU27 forced by #23 D.Stephens II recovered by TCU #62 C.Bruno at TCU24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
52.6%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass intercepted by #24 C.Pierce at TCU29 broken up by #31 J.Walker, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5353% → 52%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.0%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #24 C.Tabaracci thrown to TCU30 QB hurried by #3 K.Elarms-OrrSimilar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
47.4%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 5 yards gain (2) to the TCU24 (#21 B.Clark) PENALTY USC Holding (#24 C.Tabaracci) 10 yards from TCU27 to TCU37Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+4
49.8%
(13:39) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush left for 4 yards gain to the TCU33 (#97 P.Oyewale), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Face Mask (#7 C.Canada) 15 yards from TCU33 to TCU18, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
47.0%
(13:18) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU12 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
47.3%
(12:39) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU08 (#35 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
47.5%
(11:58) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU07 (#11 D.Deal; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.7%
(11:16) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #7 C.Canada at TCU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3454% → 52%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
53.6%
(11:09) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #3 M.Everhart caught at TCU17, for 3 yards loss to the TCU17 (#27 A.Graham)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+9
53.4%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU22, for 9 yards to the TCU26 (#17 D.Nicholson)Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-1
53.2%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU25, for 1 yard loss to the TCU25 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
52.1%
(09:33) #31 E.Craw punt 40 yards to the USC35 fair catch by #44 J.Zamora at USC35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1847% → 44%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
53.0%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC36 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
53.0%
(08:57) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the USC36 (#90 K.Mickell; #97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
54.8%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #16 T.Hines thrown to USC43Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+2
56.3%
(08:08) #80 S.Johnson punt 47 yards to the TCU17 #18 E.Small return 2 yards to the TCU19 (#22 B.Conley) PENALTY TCU Illegal Block in Back (#80 J.Hayes) 8 yards from TCU17 to TCU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:0555% → 54%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
54.7%
(08:01) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU12 (#88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
54.9%
PENALTY TCU Illegal Snap (#51 C.Deery) 5 yards from TCU12 to TCU07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+1
54.8%
(07:02) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU08 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+14
53.6%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU22, for 14 yards to the TCU22 (#27 A.Graham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
55.9%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #13 J.Denman caught at TCU17, for 1 yard to the TCU23 (#14 T.Robinson)Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
55.9%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 10 yards gain to the TCU33 (#14 T.Robinson; #9 K.Silver), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.8%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short left to #15 T.Shelton thrown to TCU38 broken up by #2 D.HarveySimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
56.5%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 0 yards to the TCU33 (#24 C.Pierce), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+1
54.7%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU26, for 1 yard to the TCU34 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
54.0%
(03:56) #31 E.Craw punt 39 yards to the USC27 fair catch by #44 J.Zamora at USC27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:5045% → 75%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
55.5%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #10 J.Johnson caught at USC18, for 4 yards to the USC31 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+46
54.9%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #16 T.Hines caught at TCU23, for 46 yards to the TCU23 (#26 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
49.7%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU19 (#43 B.Baldwin)Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
49.9%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #10 J.Johnson caught at TCU16, for 3 yards to the TCU16 (#21 B.Clark)Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
51.9%
PENALTY USC False Start 5 yards from TCU16 to TCU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
24.7%
(00:53) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #15 J.Richardson caught at TCU00, for 21 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49, 1ST DOWN #88 T.Tupou pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 1:0632% → 26%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
31.9%
(00:48) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU32, for 15 yards to the TCU50 (#28 K.Urlacher) PENALTY TCU Holding (#56 B.Taylor-Whitfield) 10 yards from TCU35 to TCU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+1
28.7%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard gain to the TCU26 (#54 A.Tuitele; #27 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 19
OWN 26
0
28.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete deep right to #3 M.Everhart thrown to USC50Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 19
OWN 26
0
27.1%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short right to #26 J.Payne thrown to TCU34 QB hurried by #10 B.ShelbySimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
26.2%
(14:48) #31 E.Craw punt 29 yards to the USC45, out of bounds at USC45 PENALTY USC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#26 E.Newby) 15 yards from USC45 to USC30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:5876% → 86%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
23.7%
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC32 (#11 D.Deal; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-6
23.4%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Johnson rush left for 6 yards loss to the USC26 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+35
25.4%
(13:18) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at TCU46, for 35 yards to the TCU39 (#26 V.Glover), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
20.7%
(12:33) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the TCU26 (#4 N.Obiazor; #22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
19.7%
PENALTY USC Illegal Snap (#50 J.Reed) 5 yards from TCU26 to TCU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
19.9%
(11:22) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #27 R.Wormley thrown to TCU01 QB hurried by #97 P.OyewaleSimilar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
20.2%
(11:14) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #10 J.Johnson caught at TCU36, for 0 yards to the TCU31 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+7
19.7%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU24 (#1 A.Jordan)Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
14.4%
(09:40) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 09:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1316% → 48%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.5%
PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
15.2%
(09:36) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU17, for 8 yards to the TCU28 (#27 A.Graham) PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
15.8%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU34 (#27 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
15.6%
PENALTY TCU Illegal Snap (#51 C.Deery) 5 yards from TCU34 to TCU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
14.3%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU41, for 12 yards to the TCU41 (#14 T.Robinson; #24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
15.9%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TCU34 (#9 K.Silver)Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+8
13.8%
(07:34) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #81 C.Curtis caught at TCU36, for 8 yards to the TCU42 (#25 M.Williams)Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+12
13.4%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU47, for 12 yards to the USC46 (#17 D.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
15.2%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at USC48, for 5 yards to the USC41 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+22
15.0%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 22 yards gain to the USC19 (#14 T.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
16.6%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #3 M.Everhart caught at USC22, for 11 yards to the USC08 (#95 J.Ramos), 1ST DOWN. #25 M.Williams injured on the playSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
15.9%
(04:55) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC05 (#88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.8%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) PENALTY USC Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:4072% → 73%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.0%
PENALTY USC False Start (#60 K.Miller) 5 yards from USC25 to USC20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
28.3%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the USC20 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #11 D.Deal)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
27.0%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #27 R.Wormley caught at USC15, for 9 yards to the USC29 (#95 M.Deal)Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
25.1%
(02:54) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #16 T.Hines thrown to TCU40Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.0%
PENALTY USC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USC29 to USC24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
26.9%
(02:49) #80 S.Johnson punt 45 yards to the TCU31 fair catch by #18 E.Small at TCU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 2:3535% → 63%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
34.6%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU35 (#31 J.Walker; #27 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
35.8%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short right to #3 M.Everhart thrown to TCU40 QB hurried by #1 K.CrawfordSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+6
33.4%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU32, for 6 yards to the TCU41 (#31 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
36.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TCU37 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+15
31.8%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at USC48, for 15 yards to the USC48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. #9 K.Silver injured on the playSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
37.0%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU49, for 3 yards to the USC45 (#10 B.Shelby; #23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+20
34.1%
(01:17) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short middle to #3 M.Everhart caught at USC30, for 20 yards to the USC25 (#95 J.Ramos), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
39.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC21 (#31 J.Walker)Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
38.6%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #0 D.Rogers caught at USC15, for 6 yards to the USC15 (#27 A.Graham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.6%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete short right to #1 E.McAlister thrown to USC00 broken up by #17 D.NicholsonSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
38.5%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short middle to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at USC11, for 5 yards to the USC10 (#24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
32.1%
(00:27) Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at USC10, for 0 yards to the USC10 (#25 M.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
63.2%
(00:02) #34 K.Lemmermann field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
41.1%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #30 K.Miller caught at TCU26, for 15 yards to the TCU10 (#4 N.Obiazor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
41.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #16 T.Hines thrown to TCU00Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
41.1%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #16 T.Hines thrown to TCU00 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#38 G.Jackson) 8 yards from TCU10 to TCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.2%
(00:00) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU02 (#10 J.Bax)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
41.1%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TCU05 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #95 M.Deal)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.6%
(00:00) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Richardson thrown to TCU00Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
28.4%
Ryon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.2%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass incomplete deep left to #14 J.Manjack IV thrown to USC04 broken up by #25 M.Williams. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Seals pass complete deep left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at USC04, for 21 yards to the USC04 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWN)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
36.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #9 K.Seals sacked for loss of 10 yards to the USC35 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+35
76.1%
Jeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
(00:02) #34 K.Lemmermann field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler), clock 00:00
+55.6
TD · OT 0:00
Jeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals
+39.8
TD · Q4 4:24
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24 #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) #34 K.Lemmermann kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) PENALTY USC Offside declined
+31.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com