Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 28 at Illinois 30

ILL
2025 · Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl · Dec 30, 2025 · Nissan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD-12.4ILL 55.2%No Huddle #18 D.Bishop rush middle for1 yard gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN,clock 07:31 #90 M.Gilbert kick attemptgood (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)AWAY 14 - HOME 17 · Q3 7:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:31 · No Huddle #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:31 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:48: No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 20 yards to the Vols00 (#43 J.Barna), fumble by #6 J.Aguilar recovered by Illini #9 L.Lowery Jr. at Vols00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +14.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:41: Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vols00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:41 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +14.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:40: #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +22.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:58: #27 L.Osada kickoff 59 yards to the Vols06 #89 J.Dodson return 94 yards to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:58 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +39.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 00:00 — ILL win probability +51.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:15ILL 4th & 7 at TENN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:43TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:59ILL 4th & 2 at TENN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:28TENN 4th & 11 at ILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:21ILL 4th & 10 at TENN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:14TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:58ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:31TENN 4th & 1 at ILL 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−15.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 1 at ILL 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−3.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−13.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:14ILL 4th & 9 at TENN 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−19.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:58ILL 4th & 1 at TENN 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−2.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−12.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:03ILL 4th & 11 at TENN 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−45.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−61.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:16TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:48ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:41ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:40TENN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:58TENN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4543% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Illini34 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 3 yards gain to the Illini37 (#20 B.Eason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at Illini42, for 8 yards to the Illini45 (#27 J.Perlotte)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at Illini48, for 4 yards to the Illini49 (#0 W.Wright), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Vols Personal Foul (#0 W.Wright) 15 yards from Illini49 to Vols36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
43.2%
PENALTY Illini False Start 5 yards from Vols36 to Vols41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+7
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Vols34 (#22 J.Telander)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to Vols08 broken up by #4 T.Redmond. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+1
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #5 C.Valentine caught at Vols39, for 1 yard to the Vols33 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
44.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Bowick thrown to Vols14 QB hurried by #29 J.Ross, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:5956% → 59%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
44.1%
Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 8 yards to the Vols25 (#90 J.Thompson Jr., #16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+8
44.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at Vols33, for 8 yards to the Vols33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+14
44.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at Vols47, for 14 yards to the Vols47 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Illini48 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+12
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #18 D.Bishop caught at Illini46, for 12 yards to the Illini36 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
43.8%
Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush right for 4 yards gain to the Illini32 (#9 L.Lowery Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
43.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #18 D.Bishop caught at Illini31, for 2 yards to the Illini30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Illini24 (#45 M.Hood; #2 S.Karriem), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
43.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush right for 18 yards gain to the Illini06 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
43.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Illini07 (#2 S.Karriem)Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.0%
Joey Aguilar 7 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4042% → 49%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at Illini36, for 11 yards to the Illini36 (#15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.4%
PENALTY Illini False Start (#64 J.Kreutz) 5 yards from Illini36 to Illini31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
42.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 6 yards gain to the Illini37 (#29 J.Ross; #47 I.Campbell)Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+24
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at Vols45, for 24 yards to the Vols39 (#21 T.Poteat), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.2%
PENALTY Illini False Start (#58 M.Priestly) 5 yards from Vols39 to Vols44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+18
42.8%
#9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #2 A.Hollins caught at Vols29, for 18 yards to the Vols26 (#22 J.Telander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.6%
Shotgun #80 H.Beatty pass incomplete short left to #9 L.Altmyer thrown to Vols36Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
43.6%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #80 H.Beatty caught at Vols20, for 9 yards to the Vols17 (#6 J.McMurray)Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
43.2%
#23 J.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vols15 (#18 T.Weathersby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
43.6%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vols13 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
43.6%
PENALTY Illini False Start (#64 J.Kreutz) 5 yards from Vols13 to Vols18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+18
49.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #0 J.Bowick caught at Vols00, for 18 yards to the Vols00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4854% → 53%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
46.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vols30 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
46.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush left for 2 yards gain to the Vols32 (#9 L.Lowery Jr.; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
46.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Smith Jr. thrown to Vols35 QB hurried by #9 L.Lowery Jr.Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
47.2%
#98 J.Ross punt 39 yards to the Illini29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 5:4448% → 50%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
47.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Illini33 (#12 J.Harmon)Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+18
47.8%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #5 C.Valentine caught at Illini31, for 18 yards to the Vols49 (#2 A.Turrentine), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
49.1%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Illini47 (#5 D.Hobbs, #27 J.Perlotte)Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+11
47.9%
Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Vols42 (#12 J.Harmon)Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
48.9%
Shotgun #80 H.Beatty rush right for 5 yards gain to the Vols37 (#33 B.Bolton; #29 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
49.2%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Vols32 (#12 J.Harmon)Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
49.6%
Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Vols31 (#20 B.Eason)Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
49.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #0 J.Bowick caught at Vols30, for 2 yards to the Vols29 (#12 J.Harmon)Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
50.1%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #3 A.Bryant thrown to Vols31 broken up by #20 B.Eason, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:3153% → 53%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
47.1%
Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Vols37 (#41 J.Kreutz; #3 A.Bryant)Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-6
46.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Vols31 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+9
48.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Vols40 (#39 K.Odeluga; #96 E.Coenen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Vols45 (#4 D.Brown)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
44.6%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush left for 8 yards gain to the Illini47 (#41 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Illini38 (#4 D.Brown; #39 K.Odeluga)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Illini36 (#0 M.Resetich; #43 J.Barna), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #4 M.Matthews caught at Illini20, for 16 yards to the Illini20 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
43.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 2 yards loss to the Illini22 (#41 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+1
43.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at Illini23, for 1 yard to the Illini21 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
44.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #14 B.Staley thrown to Illini05Similar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
47.2%
#90 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady), clock 03:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:0751% → 56%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
50.5%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to Illini35 broken up by #15 E.FarooqSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
50.4%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Illini27 (#17 E.Utley; #4 T.Redmond) PENALTY Vols UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#17 E.Utley) 15 yards from Illini27 to Illini42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
52.6%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 7 yards gain to the Illini49 (#4 T.Redmond)Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
53.2%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at Vols46, for 6 yards to the Vols45 (#27 J.Perlotte; #0 W.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Vols37 (#22 J.Telander)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
53.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Vols38 (#22 J.Telander; #42 T.West)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+11
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #0 J.Bowick caught at Vols27, for 11 yards to the Vols27, out of bounds at Vols27, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at Vols28, for 3 yards to the Vols24 (#0 W.Wright), out of bounds PENALTY Vols Face Mask (#0 W.Wright) 12 yards from Vols24 to Vols12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to Vols00Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #80 H.Beatty thrown to Vols00 broken up by #6 J.McMurraySimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
53.5%
(00:30) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Bowick thrown to Vols00 broken up by #4 T.RedmondSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
55.6%
(00:25) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 00:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short left to #14 B.Staley thrown to Vols25Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vols29 (#4 D.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4645% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Vols42 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short middle to #0 E.Davis thrown to Vols50Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush right for 4 yards gain to the Vols46 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.; #4 D.Brown)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-4
52.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Vols42 (#45 M.Hood)Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
56.6%
#98 J.Ross punt 39 yards to the Illini19 fair catch by #80 H.Beatty at Illini19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1657% → 56%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #13 H.Clement thrown to Illini31Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
56.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Illini34 (#27 J.Perlotte; #2 A.Turrentine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
57.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Illini39 (#13 E.Spillman; #20 B.Eason)Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
59.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #13 H.Clement thrown to Vols42 broken up by #0 W.WrightSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
57.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to Vols30 QB hurried by #90 D.BaileySimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
55.9%
#40 K.Crimmins punt 41 yards to the Vols20 fair catch by #42 B.Harmon at Vols20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -20 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 20 yards to the Vols00 (#43 J.Barna), fumble by #6 J.Aguilar recovered by Illini #9 L.Lowery Jr. at Vols00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1730% → 45%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush right for 6 yards gain to the Vols31 (#45 M.Hood; #28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
69.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #9 S.Thomas caught at Vols27, for 18 yards to the Vols49 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
68.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 21 yards gain to the Illini30 (#16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWN. #16 T.Heckel injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
66.7%
Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Illini23 (#26 I.Kante; #10 M.Scott)Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+15
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Illini08 (#10 M.Scott; #26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #87 M.Kitselman caught at Illini10, for 3 yards to the Illini05 (#5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Illini03 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Illini01 (#4 D.Brown; #99 C.Neal)Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
No Huddle #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:31 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:4460% → 80%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
59.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Illini47 (#0 W.Wright; #10 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Illini46 (#29 J.Ross; #27 J.Perlotte)Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+10
60.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at Illini48, for 10 yards to the Vols44 (#47 I.Campbell; #29 J.Ross)Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Vols41 (#22 J.Telander; #90 D.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
63.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Vols27, out of bounds at Vols27, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
65.4%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Vols17 (#0 W.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
65.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #85 T.Arkin caught at Vols03, for 15 yards to the Vols02 (#10 K.Beasley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.8%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vols00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:41 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 5:5223% → 45%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at Vols25, for 10 yards to the Vols31 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
76.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vols35 (#2 S.Karriem; #90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
75.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vols37 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+8
76.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at Vols41, for 8 yards to the Vols45 (#45 M.Hood), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
75.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 4 yards gain to the Vols49 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+13
74.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #5 R.Jackson caught at Illini39, for 13 yards to the Illini38 (#1 K.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
77.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard gain to the Illini37 (#96 E.Coenen; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-6
77.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #18 D.Bishop caught at Illini43, for 6 yards loss to the Illini43 (#44 A.McCullom)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+17
80.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #4 M.Matthews caught at Illini26, for 17 yards to the Illini26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 3 yards gain to the Illini23 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Illini22 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.; #3 A.Bryant)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
76.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #5 R.Jackson caught at Illini23, for 5 yards to the Illini17 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.; #5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+5
78.2%
#18 D.Bishop rush right for 5 yards gain to the Illini12 (#39 K.Odeluga), 1ST DOWN. #90 J.Thompson Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
55.5%
#18 D.Bishop rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:2667% → 87%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.0%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #5 C.Valentine caught at Illini21, for 9 yards to the Illini34 (#22 J.Telander)Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
69.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 16 yards gain to the Illini50 (#27 J.Perlotte), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
50
+13
71.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at Vols45, for 13 yards to the Vols37 (#0 W.Wright), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
71.5%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Vols38 (#9 M.Dye; #2 A.Turrentine)Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+6
71.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at Vols33, for 6 yards to the Vols32 (#15 E.Farooq)Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+8
73.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 8 yards gain to the Vols24 (#15 E.Farooq; #29 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
75.8%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #85 T.Arkin caught at Vols19, for 8 yards to the Vols16 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
76.1%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Vols11 (#15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
76.1%
#9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Valentine thrown to Vols12 QB hurried by #33 B.BoltonSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
76.1%
#5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Vols10 (#22 J.Telander; #6 J.McMurray)Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
74.7%
#9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to Vols00 broken up by #6 J.McMurraySimilar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
86.9%
#24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 05:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FG
21 plays · 65 yds · 4:5547% → 94%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Illini32 (#90 D.Bailey)Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+28
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 28 yards gain to the Vols40 (#4 T.Redmond; #2 A.Turrentine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Laughery thrown to Vols40 broken up by #21 T.Poteat QB hurried by #31 C.HerringSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Vols33 (#20 B.Eason; #13 E.Spillman). #5 D.Hobbs injured on the playSimilar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
53.4%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at Vols34, for 2 yards to the Vols31 (#4 T.Redmond), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+13
50.7%
#23 J.Anderson rush right for 13 yards gain to the Vols18 (#22 J.Telander; #29 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
58.1%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vols14 (#22 J.Telander; #13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
49.2%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Vols13 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+4
47.5%
PENALTY Vols Offside (#90 D.Bailey) 4 yards from Vols13 to Vols09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
46.7%
Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Vols06 (#15 E.Farooq; #20 B.Eason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
51.5%
#9 L.Altmyer rush right for 2 yards loss to the Vols08 (#20 B.Eason)Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
49.6%
(01:22) Kneel down by #9 L.Altmyer at Vols10 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
43.3%
(00:40) Kneel down by #9 L.Altmyer at Vols11 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
94.4%
#24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:03
#24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 00:00
+51.1
TD · Q4 4:58
#27 L.Osada kickoff 59 yards to the Vols06 #89 J.Dodson return 94 yards to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:58 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-39.3
TD · Q4 11:40
#18 D.Bishop rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Illini00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-22.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com