Try the model
CCU

Coastal Carolina 14 at Louisiana Tech 23

LT
2025 · Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl · Dec 30, 2025 · Independence Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+34.5LT 58.5%Trey Kukuk pass complete to MarlionJackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-PointConversion failed)AWAY 14 - HOME 12 · Q4 11:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:45 · Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:12: Tad Hudson pass complete to Dominic Knicely for 20 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — CCU win probability +4.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:49: Kaegan Kent 42 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +4.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:16: Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 16 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — CCU win probability +10.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LT win probability +34.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:09: Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Kukuk pass to Andrew Burnette for Two-Point Conversion) — LT win probability +27.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:57LT 4th & 6 at LT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:38LT 4th & 10 at LT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:30LT 4th & 8 at CCU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:47CCU 4th & 21 at CCU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21LT 4th & 6 at LT 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:15CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49LT 4th & 4 at CCU 23, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:55CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45LT 4th & 11 at CCU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:51LT 4th & 11 at LT 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:02CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:00LT 4th & 9 at LT 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−3.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:02CCU 4th & 25 at CCU 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:32CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−4.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:04CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:49CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 48, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:13LT 4th & 1 at LT 21, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:52CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−2.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:56LT 4th & 7 at CCU 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:12CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:16CCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:45LT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:09LT Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 20Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
76.0%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
75.9%
Trey Kukuk run for 7 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
75.8%
Trey Kukuk run for 16 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-17
75.8%
Trey Kukuk pass intercepted Lionell Whitaker return for 17 yds to the CCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:2724% → 25%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
75.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Karmello English for 7 yds to the CCU 49Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
75.5%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 4 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
75.4%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 4 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-5
75.4%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 48Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+7
75.3%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 21 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST down Coastal Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.2%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
75.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
74.9%
Dominic Knicely run for 6 yds to the LT 12Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
74.6%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+29
74.8%
Kian Afrookhteh 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0175% → 74%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
75.1%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 15Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
75.1%
Clay Thevenin run for 6 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
75.0%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 19Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
74.6%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 5 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+3
74.2%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 50 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 3 yds to the CCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4226% → 26%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
74.5%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 27Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+6
74.4%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Ja'Vin Simpkins for 6 yds to the CCU 33Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+3
74.3%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 3 yds to the CCU 36Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2274% → 73%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
74.0%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd to the LT 16Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
73.9%
Andrew Burnette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 15Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
73.4%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+1
73.1%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 56 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 1 yd to the CCU 16 Coastal Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the CCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1826% → 34%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.6%
Jevon Edwards run for 3 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
73.4%
PENALTY LATECH pass interference 15 yards to the COASTALCAR38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
73.0%
Jevon Edwards run for 5 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
72.5%
Jevon Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 42Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+21
72.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 21 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
71.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Zach Courtney for 15 yds to the LT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
71.0%
Breyahn Townsend run for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
70.8%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 6 yds to the LT 15Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-5
71.0%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 20Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
66.4%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Dominic Knicely for 20 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-10
66.0%
PENALTY COASTALCAR holding 10 yards to the LATECH13, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:3068% → 67%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
67.7%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 26 for a 1ST down Coastal Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
67.8%
Trey Kukuk run for 3 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
67.5%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 10 yds to the CCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
68.5%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-2
68.3%
Andrew Burnette run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 44Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
67.8%
Trey Kukuk pass incomplete to Eli FinleySimilar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+1
66.6%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 39 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 1 yd to the CCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3334% → 35%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
65.8%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Zach Courtney for 15 yds to the CCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
65.3%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Zach Courtney for 18 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
64.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCU 34Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
65.0%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 2 yds to the CCU 36Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-10
64.4%
PENALTY COASTALCAR holding 10 yards to the COASTALCAR26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 23
OWN 26
+2
64.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 2 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 21
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Tad Hudson pass incomplete to Malcolm GillieSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 21
OWN 28
+21
64.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 53 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 21 yds to the LT 49 Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1964% → 62%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
64.3%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd to the LT 31Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Trey Kukuk pass incomplete to Tre AverhartSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+3
62.5%
Trey Kukuk run for 3 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-3
62.1%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 54 yds , Bryson Graves returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0037% → 37%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
62.7%
Jevon Edwards run for 14 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.2%
Jevon Edwards run for 2 yds to the CCU 25Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Tad Hudson pass incomplete to Xavier McIntyreSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
63.5%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:1162% → 64%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
62.0%
Andrew Burnette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
61.1%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Andrew Burnette for 5 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
60.6%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 29Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+20
59.8%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 20 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
62.2%
Andrew Burnette run for 5 yds to the CCU 46Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
62.6%
Trey Kukuk run for 5 yds to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
62.2%
Andrew Burnette run for 2 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
61.8%
Andrew Burnette run for 10 yds to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.0%
Trey Kukuk run for 2 yds to the CCU 27Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
62.6%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+4
59.5%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Eli Finley for 4 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+42
63.9%
Kaegan Kent 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2639% → 56%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.1%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 13 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
58.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Malick Meiga for 32 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
56.4%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 2 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+14
56.2%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (14 Yards) to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
55.9%
Simpkins, Ja'Vin rush for 11 yards to the LATECH3, PENALTY COASTALCAR holding 10 yards to the LATECH24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+8
56.3%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Zach Courtney for 8 yds to the LT 16Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
44.4%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 16 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2146% → 45%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.4%
Jevon Edwards run for 5 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
46.1%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 1 yd to the LT 9Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
45.8%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
45.1%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:37
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+10
44.5%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 56 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 10 yds to the CCU 19 Coastal Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the CCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5553% → 52%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.2%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 24Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
46.9%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
47.6%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+30
47.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 38 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 30 yds to the CCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0550% → 47%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
50.3%
Trey Kukuk run for 2 yds to the CCU 30Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
49.8%
Andrew Burnette run for 2 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
47.4%
Trey Kukuk run for no gain to the CCU 28Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 6
OPP 28
-5
44.7%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCU 33Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+51
46.9%
John Hoyet Chance 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 5 yds Robby Washington fumbled, recovered by LT Donovan RiemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0251% → 51%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
51.1%
Trey Kukuk run for 13 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
52.4%
Trey Kukuk run for no gain to the CCU 27Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
51.7%
Andrew Burnette run for 14 yds to the CCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
51.7%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the CCU 28Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
51.4%
Andrew Burnette run for 6 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-4
51.0%
Trey Kukuk sacked by Tray Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 23 Trey Kukuk fumbled, recovered by CCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5757% → 61%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
43.1%
Dominic Knicely run for 1 yd to the CCU 24Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+28
42.5%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 28 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
38.7%
Dominic Knicely run for 1 yd to the LT 47Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+39
38.5%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 39 yds to the LT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.8%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
36.7%
Jevon Edwards run for 3 yds to the LT 5Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.1%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 0
OPP 5
+22
39.1%
Kian Afrookhteh 22 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kenyatta McNeese Afrookhteh, Kian field goal attempt from 22 blocked, recovered by LATECH Foster, Jakari at LATECH20 spot at LATECH20 (blocked by McNeese, Kenyatta), Foster, Jakari for 13 yards to the LATECH33. Jakari Foster return for 13 yds to the LT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2942% → 36%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
42.4%
Clay Thevenin run for 7 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-10
44.6%
Thevenin, Clay rush for 5 yards to the LATECH45, PENALTY LATECH holding 10 yards to the LATECH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
40.9%
Trey Kukuk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+2
39.1%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 2 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
35.7%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 40 yds for a touchback , Bryson Graves returns for no gain Bryson Graves fumbled, recovered by CCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4363% → 64%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.5%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 3 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
36.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 11 yds to the CCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
35.9%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 1 yd to the CCU 35Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
33.9%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
34.7%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5535% → 31%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
35.3%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
34.9%
Trey Kukuk run for 3 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-3
33.2%
Trey Kukuk sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 21Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+9
30.9%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 53 yds , Bryson Graves returns for 9 yds to the CCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:2870% → 68%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
30.1%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Dominic Knicely for no gain to the CCU 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
29.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 34Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-14
31.6%
Tad Hudson sacked by Sifa Leota for a loss of 14 yards to the CCU 20 Tad Hudson fumbled, forced by Sifa Leota, recovered by CCUSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
31.6%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 53 yds, downed at the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:1732% → 31%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
31.5%
Trey Kukuk run for 8 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+14
31.7%
Clay Thevenin run for 14 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.5%
Clay Thevenin run for no gain to the LT 49Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
31.4%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 15 yds Marlion Jackson fumbled, recovered by CCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 25INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3177% → 76%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
23.3%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 35Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
24.0%
Tad Hudson pass intercepted Jordan McRae return for no gain to the LT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
58.5%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:1353% → 51%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
47.4%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCU 20Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
47.4%
Jevon Edwards run for 8 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
46.4%
Tad Hudson sacked by Sifa Leota for 0 yards to the CCU 28 Coastal Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the CCU 19Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
49.4%
Hudson, Tad pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH roughing passer 15 yards to the COASTALCAR34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
45.6%
Jevon Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 30Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+5
48.6%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Dominic Knicely for 5 yds to the CCU 35Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+25
48.8%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 39 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 25 yds to the CCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:2360% → 88%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
59.5%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the CCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
61.5%
Trey Kukuk run for 29 yds to the CCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.4%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the CCU 1Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.4%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Kukuk pass to Andrew Burnette for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5522% → 21%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.9%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 5 yds to the CCU 30Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
76.9%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 2 yds to the CCU 32Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
79.3%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:5089% → 91%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.5%
Clay Thevenin run for 3 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
88.8%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd to the LT 44Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
88.6%
Trey Kukuk run for 7 yds to the CCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
90.2%
Clay Thevenin run for 2 yds to the CCU 47Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-1
91.1%
Andrew Burnette run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 48 Andrew Burnette fumbled, recovered by CCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1624% → 18%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.9%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
77.3%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
79.2%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
81.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3190% → 93%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
89.5%
Trey Kukuk run for 7 yds to the LT 19Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
92.4%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 20Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
92.3%
Trey Kukuk run for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+59
92.6%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryson Graves at the CCU 30 Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 33DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1614% → 11%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.4%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
86.2%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
88.8%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 34FG
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
96.1%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the CCU 16Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-3
96.2%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 19Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+2
95.8%
Trey Kukuk run for 2 yds to the CCU 17Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
96.2%
Kaegan Kent 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 35INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:283% → 4%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.8%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Malick Meiga for 9 yds to the CCU 34Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
96.3%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Jevon Edwards for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
50
0
96.2%
Tad Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
50
-4
96.1%
Tad Hudson pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for 4 yds to the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 36END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:45
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+34.5
TD · Q4 8:09
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Kukuk pass to Andrew Burnette for Two-Point Conversion)
+27
TD · Q2 1:16
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 16 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com