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LSU

LSU 35 at Houston 38

HOU
2025 · Kinder's Texas Bowl · Dec 27, 2025 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+11.4HOU 72.2%Ethan Sanchez 25 Yd Field GoalAWAY 28 - HOME 31 · Q4 7:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:42 · Ethan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+9.7Garbage-time factor+2.9Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:31: Trey'Dez Green 4 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:42: Traville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — HOU win probability +16.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Kyle Parker 6 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +23.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:42: Ethan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +11.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Zavion Thomas 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:14HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:04LSU 4th & 4 at HOU 27, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 1 at LSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:14HOU 4th & 4 at LSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:14LSU 4th & 1 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:27LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:31HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:23LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:29HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 19, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:42HOU 4th & 7 at LSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−21.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:50LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:50HOU 4th & 1 at LSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−11.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:46LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:48LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:08HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:05HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:31LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:42HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:23HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3250% → 50%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 2 yards gain to the HOU27 (#2 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
50.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at HOU32, for 9 yards to the HOU36 (#42 D.Keys; #46 T.Singleton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
50.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 2 yards loss to the HOU34 (#10 D.Spears), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
50.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU38 (#42 D.Keys; #10 D.Spears)Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+1
50.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush right for 1 yard gain to the HOU39 (#88 B.Gooden)Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
49.8%
#91 L.Dougherty punt 21 yards to the LSU40, out of bounds at LSU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:2650% → 52%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
49.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush right for 36 yards gain to the HOU24 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.; #5 C.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
49.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #12 K.Parker thrown to HOU29Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
49.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HOU23 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
47.9%
Trey'Dez Green 23 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4048% → 49%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #25 D.Butler caught at HOU19, for 7 yards to the HOU32 (#2 J.Gilbert), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
48.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU34 (#88 B.Gooden) PENALTY LSU Offside (#6 P.Payton) 5 yards from HOU32 to HOU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 2 yards gain to the HOU39 (#46 T.Singleton; #96 D.McKinley)Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+14
48.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 14 yards gain to the LSU47 (#10 D.Spears), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
48.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #18 K.Young caught at LSU48, for 11 yards to the LSU36 (#10 D.Spears), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Face Mask (#10 D.Spears) 15 yards from LSU36 to LSU21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush left for 5 yards gain to the LSU16 (#31 C.Jimcoily)Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
48.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right thrown to LSU15Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+8
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman sacked for loss of 11 yards to the LSU27 (#96 D.McKinley) PENALTY LSU Face Mask (#96 D.McKinley) 8 yards from LSU16 to LSU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
48.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Thomas rush left for 2 yards loss to the LSU10 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
48.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU08 (#46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
49.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU12, for 8 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:08. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU12, for 7 yards to the LSU01 (#0 T.Cooley), out of bounds) #92 E.Sanchez kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4753% → 53%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
47.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 19 yards gain to the HOU33 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU28 (#4 B.Mack; #9 C.Platt Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush right for 2 yards gain to the HOU26 (#5 C.Allen)Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-1
47.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush right for 1 yard loss to the HOU27 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
46.9%
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 03:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
17 plays · 73 yds · 6:5948% → 55%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
47.7%
Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU32 (#0 T.Cooley; #97 D.Carpenter)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
48.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 5 yards gain to the HOU37 (#10 D.Spears), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
47.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 3 yards gain to the HOU40 (#2 J.Gilbert; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU46, for 14 yards to the LSU46 (#12 J.Butler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #9 T.Koziol thrown to LSU23 QB hurried by #42 D.KeysSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
48.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Carlisle rush right for 6 yards gain to the LSU40 (#10 D.Spears), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
49.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at LSU37, for 3 yards to the LSU37 (#0 T.Cooley; #46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
47.3%
#1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU35 (#88 B.Gooden), 1ST DOWN. #74 M.Wykoff injured on the playSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
48.8%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #18 K.Young thrown to LSU02 PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (#3 D.Pickett) 15 yards from LSU35 to LSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
48.8%
Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU15 (#11 P.Woodland; #6 P.Payton)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-1
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 1 yard loss to the LSU16, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+6
48.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LSU10 (#31 C.Jimcoily), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU10 (#95 S.Washington; #12 J.Butler)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
48.8%
PENALTY HOU False Start 5 yards from LSU10 to LSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 11 yards gain to the LSU04 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU00, for 4 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:05, 1ST DOWN #92 E.Sanchez kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5148% → 49%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
52.1%
Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush right for 0 yards to the LSU27 (#5 C.Allen; #12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
52.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LSU34 (#8 K.Webb)Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+11
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #14 T.Green caught at LSU37, for 11 yards to the LSU45 (#36 J.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 8 yards to the LSU37 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.)Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+4
51.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush right for 4 yards gain to the LSU41 fumbled by #22 H.Berry at LSU40 forced by #24 W.Brown recovered by HOU #12 S.Fotu at LSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
56.5%
Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU40 (#10 D.Spears)Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
56.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 7 yards gain to the LSU33 (#26 C.Ross II)Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-2
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush left for 2 yards loss to the LSU35 (#42 D.Keys; #11 P.Woodland). #88 B.Gooden injured on the playSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+3
54.8%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU32, for 3 yards to the LSU32 (#42 D.Keys), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 15 yds · 6:4749% → 48%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LSU31 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+1
51.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the LSU32 (#25 C.Glass)Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #12 K.Parker caught at LSU31, for 12 yards to the LSU44 (#18 K.Laufau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
49.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the LSU41 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+12
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #12 K.Parker caught at LSU41, for 12 yards to the HOU47 (#6 J.Allen). #4 B.Mack injured on the playSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
49.0%
Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 0 yards to the HOU47 (#24 W.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
50.4%
#0 Z.Thomas rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU46 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
47.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Brown thrown to HOU32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at HOU32, for 16 yards to the HOU30 (#24 W.Brown) PENALTY LSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#10 B.Sharp) 5 yards from HOU46 to LSU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+8
50.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #12 K.Parker caught at HOU43, for 8 yards to the HOU43 (#24 W.Brown; #15 W.James)Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-10
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 10 yards to the LSU47 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
51.9%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 43 yards to the HOU10 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 1:3054% → 69%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
54.1%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #44 D.Connors caught at HOU10, for 6 yards to the HOU16 (#42 D.Keys), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+4
54.0%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 T.Koziol caught at HOU19, for 4 yards to the HOU20 (#3 D.Pickett), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
54.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #3 H.Broussard caught at HOU22, for 12 yards to the HOU32 (#42 D.Keys; #11 P.Woodland), 1ST DOWN. #42 D.Keys injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #44 D.Connors caught at HOU33, for 4 yards to the HOU36 (#8 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
55.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #9 T.Koziol caught at HOU41, for 7 yards to the HOU43, out of bounds at HOU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
56.5%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to LSU24Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
55.7%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at HOU47, for 12 yards to the LSU45 (#42 D.Keys; #2 J.Gilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
57.6%
PENALTY HOU False Start (#74 M.Wykoff) 5 yards from LSU45 to LSU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 15
50
+21
56.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #18 K.Young caught at LSU36, for 21 yards to the LSU29 (#3 D.Pickett), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
58.6%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #3 H.Broussard thrown to LSU18Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
58.5%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to LSU00 QB hurried by #12 J.ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+15
56.9%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep left to #18 K.Young thrown to LSU00 QB hurried by #11 P.Woodland PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (#8 J.Jackson) 15 yards from LSU29 to LSU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
58.6%
PENALTY LSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 7 yards from LSU14 to LSU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.0%
Tanner Koziol 7 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2967% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 9 yards gain to the HOU34 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
68.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU38 (#96 D.McKinley; #2 J.Gilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
68.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #18 K.Young thrown to LSU46 broken up by #3 D.Pickett QB hurried by #11 P.WoodlandSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
67.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Koziol thrown to HOU39 broken up by #42 D.KeysSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
66.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #25 D.Butler thrown to HOU34 QB hurried by #10 D.SpearsSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+10
65.8%
#91 L.Dougherty punt 45 yards to the LSU17 #0 Z.Thomas return 10 yards to the LSU27 (#13 C.Douglas), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 4:0034% → 53%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+37
66.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep right to #6 B.Brown caught at HOU45, for 37 yards to the HOU36 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
63.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 13 yards gain to the HOU23, out of bounds at HOU23, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
61.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 0 yards to the HOU23 (#90 E.Walls III; #45 C.Bryant)Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #12 K.Parker caught at HOU19, for 8 yards to the HOU15 (#15 W.James)Similar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
61.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #12 K.Parker caught at HOU08, for 3 yards to the HOU08 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.)Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
61.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 K.Parker thrown to HOU01 QB hurried by #17 C.Brathwaite PENALTY HOU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from HOU08 to HOU04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
46.8%
Trey'Dez Green 4 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:4955% → 77%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #21 S.Sneed caught at HOU18, for 4 yards to the HOU29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
55.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 S.Sneed rush left for 2 yards loss to the HOU27 (#14 C.Jackson)Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
53.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at HOU37, for 10 yards to the HOU37 (#2 J.Gilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
56.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 35 yards gain to the LSU28 (#3 D.Pickett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
60.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at LSU13, for 22 yards to the LSU06 (#3 D.Pickett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #44 D.Connors caught at LSU07, for 2 yards to the LSU04 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
60.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU02 (#42 D.Keys; #6 P.Payton)Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.7%
Traville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1929% → 27%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
71.3%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #12 K.Parker caught at LSU22, for 19 yards to the LSU44 (#22 M.Stampley II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
68.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU44 broken up by #5 C.AllenSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
69.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush left for 0 yards to the LSU44 (#90 E.Walls III; #8 K.Webb)Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
70.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Green thrown to HOU47Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
73.4%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 45 yards to the HOU11 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5475% → 75%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 4 yards gain to the HOU15 (#0 T.Cooley; #35 Z.Weeks)Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-1
75.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush left for 1 yard loss to the HOU14 (#46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+5
73.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 S.Sneed rush right for 5 yards gain to the HOU19 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
75.3%
#91 L.Dougherty punt 53 yards to the LSU28, out of bounds at LSU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3526% → 55%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
73.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #6 B.Brown thrown to HOU30 PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (#15 W.James) 15 yards from LSU28 to LSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #6 B.Brown thrown to HOU12Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
72.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 K.Parker thrown to HOU48 broken up by #8 K.WebbSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+42
73.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep middle to #14 T.Green caught at HOU36, for 42 yards to the HOU15 (#6 J.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
68.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 9 yards gain to the HOU06 (#36 J.Garner)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
45.4%
Kyle Parker 6 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:0656% → 72%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU29, for 8 yards to the HOU29 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
58.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU33 (#96 D.McKinley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
56.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU29, for 2 yards loss to the HOU31 (#3 D.Pickett) PENALTY LSU Horse Collar Tackle (#3 D.Pickett) 15 yards from HOU33 to HOU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
60.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 5 yards gain to the LSU47 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
61.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Carlisle rush right for 0 yards to the LSU47 (#46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+19
60.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU42, for 19 yards to the LSU28 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
62.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #18 K.Young thrown to LSU03Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LSU22 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
60.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU17 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
62.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at LSU19, for 10 yards to the LSU07 (#0 T.Cooley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
62.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Thomas rush right for 6 yards loss to the LSU13 (#3 D.Pickett)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 5 yards gain to the LSU08 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
60.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #85 T.Frederick Jr. caught at LSU08, for 1 yard to the LSU07 (#2 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
72.2%
Ethan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5235% → 34%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #0 Z.Thomas thrown to HOU20Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
66.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at LSU38, for 7 yards to the LSU42 (#15 W.James)Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #0 Z.Thomas thrown to HOU45Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
66.3%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 39 yards to the HOU19 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:2771% → 95%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 26 yards gain to the HOU45 (#3 D.Pickett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 5 yards gain to the HOU50 (#42 D.Keys; #46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
50
+4
75.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU46 (#3 D.Pickett)Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU46 (#42 D.Keys; #12 J.Butler)Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
72.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #9 T.Koziol caught at LSU45, for 2 yards to the LSU44 (#0 T.Cooley; #10 D.Spears), 1ST DOWN. #9 T.Koziol injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.5%
Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU44 (#46 T.Singleton; #12 J.Butler)Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
75.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #21 S.Sneed caught at LSU25, for 24 yards to the LSU20 (#46 T.Singleton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.9%
Dean Connors 20 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 1:077% → 21%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU33, for 0 yards to the LSU37 (#24 W.Brown; #36 J.Garner) PENALTY LSU Illegal Block in Back (#71 T.Adams) 10 yards from LSU37 to LSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+46
93.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at HOU40, for 46 yards to the HOU27 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
91.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #0 Z.Thomas thrown to HOU00Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
93.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the HOU30 (#5 C.Allen, #90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+15
94.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at HOU15, for 15 yards to the HOU15 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
94.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at HOU01, for 14 yards to the HOU01 (#21 Z.Vedder), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at HOU01, for 15 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:27, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #4 N.Anderson thrown to HOU00Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the HOU03 (#6 J.Allen)Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.1%
Zavion Thomas 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0593% → 89%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
92.9%
Kneel down by #1 C.Weigman at LSU48 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
92.7%
Kneel down by #1 C.Weigman at LSU49 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-1
89.4%
Kneel down by #1 C.Weigman at LSU50 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Kyle Parker 6 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)
-23.2
TD · Q3 4:42
Traville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
+16.5
TD · Q4 1:15
Zavion Thomas 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com