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UVA

Virginia 13 at Missouri 7

MIZ
2025 · TaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Dec 27, 2025 · EverBank Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:53 · (14:57) #45 C.Weselman punt 26 yards to the UVA39, out of bounds at UVA39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense−6.8Pregame prior+3.1Garbage-time factor−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score differential−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:53: Harrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick) — UVA win probability +21.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52: (01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 5 yards gain to the UVA45 (#1 M.Burks) — UVA win probability +19.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: Timeout Missouri, clock 01:48 — MIZ win probability +18.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:41: (01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA48 (#95 J.Marshall) — UVA win probability +20.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:21: (00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA00 broken up by #19 E.Karnley — MIZ win probability +19.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 6:18UVA 4th & 2 at MIZ 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:07MIZ 4th & 4 at UVA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17UVA 4th & 7 at MIZ 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:25MIZ 4th & 10 at UVA 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:22UVA 4th & 2 at MIZ 26, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:50MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 35, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06MIZ 4th & 9 at UVA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:05UVA 4th & 3 at MIZ 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:00UVA 4th & 11 at MIZ 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 35, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:42UVA 4th & 8 at MIZ 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:45MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:28UVA 4th & 4 at MIZ 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−2.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:57MIZ 4th & 2 at UVA 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−9.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−9.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:33UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:01MIZ 4th & 10 at UVA 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:56MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:53UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4863% → 64%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.8%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIZ31 (#1 J.Jackson; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
62.8%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIZ32 (#0 A.Clary; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
62.8%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short middle to #6 X.Loyd caught at MIZ38, for 6 yards to the MIZ38 (#27 D.Neal; #26 C.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
62.9%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode caught at MIZ48, for 14 yards to the UVA48 (#27 D.Neal; #19 E.Karnley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+43
63.1%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 43 yards gain to the UVA05 (#19 E.Karnley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.2%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA05 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.2%
Jamal Roberts 5 Yd Run (Jayven Richardson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:2136% → 35%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
63.9%
(11:50) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA16, for 1 yard loss to the UVA20 (#13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
64.1%
(11:12) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #89 J.Rogers caught at UVA23, for 3 yards to the UVA23 (#12 D.Norwood), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
64.3%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #7 J.Edrine caught at UVA29, for 10 yards to the UVA33 (#5 K.Jacobs; #4 T.Greco), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.2%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 C.Geer rush right for 0 yards to the UVA33 (#5 K.Jacobs)Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
64.5%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA35 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #10 S.Webb)Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
64.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (#7 J.Edrine) 5 yards from UVA35 to UVA30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+35
65.2%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #82 E.Wood caught at UVA31, for 35 yards to the MIZ35 (#6 J.Catalon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.0%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #21 H.Waylee thrown to MIZ35Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
64.1%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ31 (#5 K.Jacobs; #12 D.Norwood)Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
64.6%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #21 H.Waylee caught at MIZ31, for 3 yards to the MIZ28 (#11 L.Kitchen)Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
64.9%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #6 C.Ross thrown to MIZ15, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0566% → 67%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.7%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIZ31 (#28 D.Platt)Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+13
66.0%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short middle to #86 J.Harris caught at MIZ41, for 13 yards to the MIZ44 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
66.6%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ48 (#0 A.Clary; #91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
66.9%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 13 yards gain to the UVA39 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.2%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA20 QB hurried by #52 D.RickertSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
67.1%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 2 yards gain to the UVA37 (#52 D.Rickert)Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
67.1%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA33 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
66.7%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA26, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:4034% → 37%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
66.1%
(03:07) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA32, for 4 yards to the UVA37 (#13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
65.6%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA37 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
66.3%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 7 yards gain to the UVA44 (#8 D.Wilson II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.7%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep right to #6 C.Ross thrown to MIZ34Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
66.0%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #7 J.Edrine caught at MIZ44, for 11 yards to the MIZ45 (#10 S.Webb; #14 T.Newson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.3%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 0 yards to the MIZ45 (#7 C.McClellan; #20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
65.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #7 J.Edrine caught at MIZ40, for 5 yards to the MIZ40 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+12
65.7%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at MIZ31, for 12 yards to the MIZ28 (#1 M.Burks; #21 S.Horn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-11
64.7%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #85 J.Hayes thrown to MIZ00 QB hurried by #7 C.McClellan PENALTY UVA Intentional Grounding (#16 T.McDonald)Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+4
66.4%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ35 (#14 T.Newson; #20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+10
67.0%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MIZ25 (#14 T.Newson)Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
63.4%
Will Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:2564% → 65%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
64.0%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #1 D.Olugbode caught at MIZ24, for 2 yards loss to the MIZ24 (#0 A.Clary)Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
63.8%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIZ25 (#23 J.Holmes)Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
63.1%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MIZ37 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.6%
(10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ39 (#14 F.Camac)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
65.3%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ43 (#91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+15
65.0%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA29, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (#27 D.Neal) 15 yards from MIZ43 to UVA42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.2%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA41 (#14 F.Camac; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
67.0%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA34Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-1
66.2%
(08:05) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 1 yard loss to the UVA42 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
64.8%
(07:30) #45 C.Weselman punt 42 yards to the UVA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:5836% → 35%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.1%
(07:24) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Edrine thrown to UVA25 QB hurried by #10 S.WebbSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
64.4%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #89 J.Rogers thrown to UVA25Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
65.3%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #82 E.Wood caught at UVA31, for 11 yards to the UVA31 (#0 S.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
63.5%
(06:51) PENALTY MIZ Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UVA31 to UVA36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+9
62.5%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 9 yards gain to the UVA45 (#2 T.Pride Jr.; #5 K.Jacobs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.0%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #0 S.Ennis caught at UVA45, for 0 yards to the UVA45 (#15 S.Banner)Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.6%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 3 yards gain to the UVA48 (#15 S.Banner; #9 Z.Young)Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+18
62.2%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 18 yards gain to the MIZ34 (#20 N.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.3%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep right to #5 K.Courtney thrown to MIZ11 QB hurried by #8 D.Wilson IISimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
60.5%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIZ26 (#14 T.Newson)Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
61.1%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZ26 (#9 Z.Young; #33 M.Gracial)Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
64.7%
(03:25) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 03:22, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2467% → 66%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
66.7%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ28 (#91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
66.4%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZ29 (#17 M.Melton; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
65.7%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at MIZ35, for 6 yards to the MIZ35 (#28 D.Platt), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
65.6%
(01:59) #45 C.Weselman punt 41 yards to the UVA24 muffed by #6 C.Ross at UVA24 recovered by MIZ #22 T.Jones at UVA25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3870% → 68%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
69.7%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA24 (#90 J.Carter; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
69.8%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 0 yards to the UVA24 (#14 F.Camac)Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
69.2%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short middle to #20 J.Roberts thrown to UVA21 broken up by #27 D.Neal QB hurried by #23 J.HolmesSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
67.6%
(01:06) #48 O.Robbins field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc), clock 01:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:3231% → 31%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
69.3%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at UVA31, for 9 yards to the UVA33 (#5 K.Jacobs; #15 S.Banner)Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
67.0%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Ennis thrown to UVA35 QB hurried by #9 Z.YoungSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
68.7%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA36 (#8 D.Wilson II; #20 N.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.4%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #82 E.Wood thrown to UVA43 QB hurried by #10 S.WebbSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
68.9%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #21 H.Waylee thrown to UVA31Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
70.0%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #0 S.Ennis caught at UVA42, for 6 yards to the UVA42 (#20 N.Rodriguez), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
69.4%
(00:26) #38 D.Sparks punt 48 yards to the MIZ10 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZ10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0267% → 67%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
67.3%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MIZ20 (#32 L.Danley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
67.2%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIZ28 (#28 D.Platt; #18 C.Costner) PENALTY MIZ Holding (#77 C.Peagler) 10 yards from MIZ20 to MIZ10. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 10:0235% → 58%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.5%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UVA23 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #9 Z.Young)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
65.8%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #7 J.Edrine thrown to UVA31Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
67.0%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at UVA34, for 13 yards to the UVA36 (#6 J.Catalon; #12 D.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.6%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #21 H.Waylee caught at UVA30, for 4 yards to the UVA40 (#13 D.Carnell; #5 K.Jacobs)Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
63.0%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA42 (#20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
63.2%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 2 yards gain to the UVA44 (#19 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+6
65.0%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #6 C.Ross caught at UVA45, for 6 yards to the UVA50 (#12 D.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
50
+3
62.9%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA42, for 3 yards to the MIZ47 (#18 J.Beasley; #13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
63.8%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Lane Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ45 (#20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
64.3%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ43 (#18 J.Beasley)Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+5
65.8%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #21 H.Waylee caught at MIZ47, for 5 yards to the MIZ38 (#15 S.Banner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
63.9%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep middle to #0 S.Ennis thrown to MIZ10 QB hurried by #9 Z.YoungSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
63.9%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIZ30 (#11 L.Kitchen)Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
63.7%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIZ27 (#95 J.Marshall; #11 L.Kitchen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
62.2%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at MIZ17, for 15 yards to the MIZ12 (#15 S.Banner; #1 M.Burks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
62.1%
(06:54) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIZ10, out of bounds at MIZ10Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
62.1%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #6 C.Ross caught at MIZ06, for 6 yards to the MIZ04, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
63.9%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIZ02 (#95 J.Marshall; #20 N.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Harrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4251% → 49%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
50.7%
(04:47) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to MIZ26Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
50.4%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIZ24 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
48.8%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass intercepted by #19 E.Karnley at MIZ35 broken up by #0 A.Clary, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5558% → 66%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
42.3%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZ35 (#8 D.Wilson II; #5 K.Jacobs)Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
42.2%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #0 S.Ennis caught at MIZ34, for 5 yards to the MIZ30 (#6 J.Catalon), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+10
43.1%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #6 C.Ross caught at MIZ29, for 10 yards to the MIZ20 (#13 D.Carnell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.0%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #82 E.Wood thrown to MIZ11 QB hurried by #11 L.KitchenSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
41.3%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIZ19 (#95 J.Marshall; #7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-2
43.1%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MIZ21 (#9 Z.Young)Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
34.4%
Will Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5641% → 39%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
41.4%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #20 J.Roberts caught at MIZ29, for 2 yards to the MIZ29 (#19 E.Karnley), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
41.3%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at MIZ30, for 4 yards to the MIZ33 (#28 D.Platt), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
40.3%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at MIZ35, for 2 yards to the MIZ35 (#27 D.Neal)Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
39.2%
(14:57) #45 C.Weselman punt 26 yards to the UVA39, out of bounds at UVA39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 4:0569% → 72%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
31.5%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA42 (#33 M.Gracial)Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
31.2%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA43 (#33 M.Gracial; #20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
30.4%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at MIZ45, for 12 yards to the MIZ45, out of bounds at MIZ45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
28.9%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIZ44 (#20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
27.4%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIZ41, out of bounds at MIZ41 PENALTY UVA Holding (#0 S.Ennis) 10 yards from MIZ44 to UVA46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+4
29.5%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #84 I.Robinson caught at UVA45, for 4 yards to the UVA50 (#20 J.Roberts)Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 15
50
+7
29.0%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #89 J.Rogers caught at MIZ43, for 7 yards to the MIZ43 (#15 S.Banner)Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
27.8%
(10:42) #4 C.Morris punt 41 yards to the MIZ02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5135% → 30%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
34.7%
(10:40) Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIZ04 (#27 D.Neal; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
33.7%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIZ09 (#0 A.Clary; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
31.9%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ11 (#32 L.Danley)Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+5
30.9%
PENALTY MIZ False Start (#79 K.Trost) 5 yards from MIZ11 to MIZ06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
30.3%
(08:50) #45 C.Weselman punt 52 yards to the UVA42 #6 C.Ross return 0 yards to the UVA42 (#24 N.DeLoach Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 4:1176% → 82%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
24.5%
(08:43) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA45 (#11 L.Kitchen; #20 J.Roberts)Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
23.5%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIZ49 (#15 S.Banner; #95 J.Marshall)Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
18.9%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ45 (#14 T.Newson; #15 S.Banner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
18.0%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ43 (#7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
17.5%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIZ40 (#7 C.McClellan; #20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
17.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIZ39 (#14 T.Newson)Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
17.9%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #82 E.Wood thrown to MIZ36 broken up by #20 N.Rodriguez, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2329% → 28%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
29.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UVA49 (#0 A.Clary; #28 D.Platt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
32.9%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 5 yards gain to the UVA44 (#14 F.Camac)Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
34.6%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA40 (#27 D.Neal; #32 L.Danley)Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
33.8%
PENALTY MIZ False Start (#56 D.Giudice) 5 yards from UVA40 to UVA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
31.9%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA41 (#0 A.Clary; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
28.1%
(02:00) No Huddle #5 M.Zollers rush right for 1 yard gain to the UVA40 (#18 C.Costner), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNS. MIZ is challenging the ruling on the field - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:1992% → 93%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
8.4%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 5 yards gain to the UVA45 (#1 M.Burks)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
7.2%
(01:48) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA47 (#14 T.Newson)Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
5.7%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA48 (#95 J.Marshall)Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
6.8%
(01:39) #38 D.Sparks punt 34 yards to the MIZ18, out of bounds at MIZ18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 1:2617% → 14%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
16.7%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZ19 (#17 M.Melton)Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
15.0%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to MIZ46Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+11
13.6%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at MIZ28, for 11 yards to the MIZ30 (#0 A.Clary; #28 D.Platt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
15.4%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #10 D.Blood caught at MIZ40, for 14 yards to the MIZ44 (#18 C.Costner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
16.2%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ48 (#26 C.Hardy; #27 D.Neal)Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
15.2%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UVA45, for 7 yards to the UVA45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
16.7%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete deep left to #1 D.Olugbode caught at UVA21, for 24 yards to the UVA21, out of bounds at UVA21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
23.1%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to UVA00 broken up by #19 E.KarnleySimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
21.3%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #20 J.Roberts thrown to UVA15 QB hurried by #17 M.Melton and #23 J.HolmesSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
17.4%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to UVA15 QB hurried by #52 D.RickertSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 10
OPP 21
0
14.0%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 B.Brown pass incomplete deep left thrown to UVA00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
3.9%
Kneel down at UVA20 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:53
Harrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)
-21.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:41
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA48 (#95 J.Marshall)
-20.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush right for 5 yards gain to the UVA45 (#1 M.Burks)
-19.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com