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UGA

Georgia 28 at Alabama 7

ALA
2025 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:29 · (07:33) #38 B.Doud punt 42 yards to the UGA20 fair catch by #1 Z.Branch at UGA20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−9.2Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Pregame prior−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:43: (08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #86 D.Bell caught at ALA00, for 5 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner) — UGA win probability +8.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:09: Timeout Georgia, clock 01:09 — UGA win probability +6.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:08: (00:11) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #14 M.Pritchett caught at ALA12, for 7 yards to the ALA16 (#5 R.Wilson) PENALTY ALA Personal Foul offsetting UGA Roughing The Passer offsetting. NO PLAY — ALA win probability +4.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:47: (10:49) #3 N.Frazier rush left for 9 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner) — UGA win probability +11.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:33: (12:40) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA25, for 23 yards to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:33, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #44 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +11.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:58UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:40UGA 4th & 1 at ALA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:59ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.1%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15UGA 4th & 8 at ALA 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:19ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:12ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 20, down 21
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:40UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:48ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 28, down 21
    Close callPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:10UGA 4th & 5 at ALA 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:13UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:13ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:20ALA 4th & 1 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:22ALA 4th & 10 at UGA 17, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:36UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:43UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:47UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:33ALA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:51UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5253% → 53%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
46.6%
(14:57) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA22, for 17 yards to the UGA42 (#3 K.Sabb; #10 J.Jefferson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
46.7%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UGA45 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
46.7%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA40, for 0 yards to the UGA45 (#2 Z.Brown; #3 K.Sabb) PENALTY UGA Holding (#86 D.Bell) 10 yards from UGA45 to UGA35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 35
-3
46.9%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush right for 3 yards loss to the UGA32 (#11 J.Renaud)Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+6
47.2%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UGA38 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
47.4%
(12:04) #92 B.Thorson punt 43 yards to the ALA19 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5647% → 47%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
47.3%
(11:56) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA24 (#94 X.McLeod)Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
47.5%
(11:12) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA26 (#6 D.Everette)Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
47.5%
(10:31) Shotgun #17 L.Brooks rush right for 0 yards to the ALA26 (#1 E.Robinson IV)Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
47.4%
(09:56) #38 B.Doud punt 44 yards to the UGA30 fair catch by #1 Z.Branch at UGA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0852% → 52%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
47.7%
(09:51) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #2 J.McCray caught at UGA26, for 4 yards loss to the UGA26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
47.9%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short right to #3 N.Frazier thrown to UGA26 broken up by #1 D.JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+13
48.1%
(09:11) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #32 C.Jones caught at UGA30, for 13 yards to the UGA39 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
47.8%
(08:33) #92 B.Thorson punt 53 yards to the ALA08, out of bounds at ALA08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4248% → 48%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
47.9%
(08:25) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #1 I.Horton caught at ALA15, for 12 yards to the ALA20 (#20 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.0%
(08:00) #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA22 (#94 X.McLeod)Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
48.1%
(07:24) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA21 (#0 G.Harris Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
47.9%
(06:41) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA30Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+4
47.6%
(06:37) #38 B.Doud punt 0 yards to the ALA21 blocked by #83 C.Speer recovered by UGA #19 J.Williams at ALA25 #19 J.Williams return 4 yards to the ALA21 (#14 M.Pritchett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:4353% → 57%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
47.0%
(06:23) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ALA07 (#18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
47.0%
(05:49) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA08 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
47.1%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #86 D.Bell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA01 (#94 E.Hill; #3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.5%
(04:37) #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #0 R.Robinson II caught at ALA00, for 1 yard to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:36 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5945% → 45%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.7%
(04:33) Shotgun #0 A.Dear rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA27 (#5 R.Wilson)Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
44.7%
(03:55) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA30, for 4 yards to the ALA31 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
44.3%
(03:09) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA36, for 20 yards to the UGA49, out of bounds at UGA49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #1 I.Horton thrown to UGA32 broken up by #1 E.Robinson IVSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
45.1%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA47, for 4 yards to the UGA45 (#20 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-30
45.1%
(01:33) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass intercepted by #6 D.Everette at UGA28 #6 D.Everette return 34 yards to the ALA38 (#5 G.Bernard), out of bounds PENALTY UGA Face Mask (#6 D.Everette) 15 yards from ALA42 to UGA43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD
16 plays · 57 yds · 7:3358% → 69%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
42.3%
(01:21) #2 J.McCray rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA45 (#90 L.Simmons)Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
42.1%
(00:49) #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #4 O.Delp caught at UGA44, for 5 yards to the UGA50 (#10 J.Jefferson; #8 J.Hill)Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 3
50
+3
42.0%
(00:20) #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA47 (#31 K.Keeley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
41.6%
(14:56) Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA46 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
41.4%
(14:24) Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ALA35 (#0 D.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
41.1%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Bowens rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA33 (#1 D.Jackson)Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
40.8%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Bowens rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA33 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
41.1%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA26 (#18 B.Hubbard; #10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
41.6%
(11:47) #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA23 (#42 Y.Pierre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
40.2%
(11:09) No Huddle #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short right to #3 N.Frazier thrown to ALA23 broken up by #42 Y.Pierre QB hurried by #23 J.SmithSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+19
40.2%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #86 D.Bell caught at ALA13, for 19 yards to the ALA04 (#3 K.Sabb; #18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
39.9%
(10:22) Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA05 (#88 I.Faga; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.4%
(09:45) PENALTY UGA False Start (#71 E.Greene III) 5 yards from ALA05 to ALA10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
39.3%
(09:25) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA05 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.1%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #86 D.Bell caught at ALA00, for 5 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1033% → 32%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
33.1%
(08:39) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA21, for 13 yards to the ALA38, out of bounds at ALA38, 1ST DOWN. UGA is challenging the ruling on the field - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:39) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA21, for 21 yards to the ALA46 (#20 J.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.1%
(07:47) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right thrown to ALA40 QB hurried by #3 C.AllenSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
32.5%
(07:41) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to ALA40 broken up by #33 Q.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
32.2%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #17 L.Brooks thrown to ALA45Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
31.6%
(07:33) #38 B.Doud punt 42 yards to the UGA20 fair catch by #1 Z.Branch at UGA20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5868% → 69%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
31.6%
(07:24) Shotgun #86 D.Bell rush left for 12 yards gain to the UGA32 (#3 K.Sabb; #0 D.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
31.0%
(06:50) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #3 N.Frazier caught at UGA30, for 2 yards to the UGA34 (#1 D.Jackson)Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
30.6%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #18 S.White-Helton caught at UGA31, for 2 yards to the UGA36 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
30.4%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short left to #1 Z.Branch thrown to ALA45Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
30.7%
(05:28) #92 B.Thorson punt 39 yards to the ALA25 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1430% → 30%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.4%
(05:21) #0 A.Dear rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA28 (#3 C.Allen)Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
30.2%
(04:40) #2 R.Williams rush right for 5 yards gain to the ALA33 (#5 R.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
30.5%
(04:07) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #4 D.Hill thrown to ALA30Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.9%
(04:02) #38 B.Doud punt 49 yards to the UGA18 fair catch by #1 Z.Branch at UGA18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 3:3271% → 78%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
29.5%
(03:55) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA15, for 10 yards to the UGA28 (#4 Q.Russaw; #18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
28.9%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #86 D.Bell caught at UGA25, for 8 yards to the UGA36 (#1 D.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
28.1%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UGA40 (#8 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
27.1%
(02:17) #33 C.Bowens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UGA42 (#90 L.Simmons)Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
25.5%
(01:56) #14 G.Stockton rush right for 5 yards gain to the UGA47 (#94 E.Hill)Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
22.7%
(01:15) #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #33 C.Bowens caught at UGA45, for 2 yards to the UGA49 (#8 J.Hill)Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
23.5%
(01:06) #2 J.McCray rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA47 (#0 D.Lawson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.0%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short left to #86 D.Bell thrown to ALA30 broken up by #41 N.Hill-GreenSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
21.2%
(00:43) Shotgun #32 C.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA45 (#11 J.Renaud)Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
21.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short right thrown to ALA45 QB hurried by #11 J.RenaudSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
21.9%
(00:17) #92 B.Thorson punt 36 yards to the ALA09 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
26.7%
(00:11) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #14 M.Pritchett caught at ALA12, for 7 yards to the ALA16 (#5 R.Wilson) PENALTY ALA Personal Foul offsetting UGA Roughing The Passer offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
26.7%
(00:00) Kneel down by #15 T.Simpson at ALA08 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2827% → 25%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.6%
(14:57) #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #17 L.Brooks caught at ALA24, for 1 yard to the ALA26 (#27 R.Dinkins), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
26.3%
(14:17) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #17 L.Brooks thrown to ALA40 QB hurried by #94 X.McLeodSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
25.8%
(14:09) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ALA17 (#20 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+24
25.3%
(13:26) #38 B.Doud punt 47 yards to the UGA36 #1 Z.Branch return 24 yards to the ALA40 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2377% → 91%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
22.6%
(13:14) Shotgun #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA39 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
22.0%
(12:42) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #3 N.Frazier caught at ALA37, for 6 yards to the ALA33 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
21.9%
(12:07) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 Z.Branch caught at ALA29, for 6 yards to the ALA27 (#16 R.Morgan; #1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
20.9%
(11:33) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #7 L.Luckie caught at ALA15, for 18 yards to the ALA09 (#3 K.Sabb), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.2%
(10:53) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete short middle to #11 T.Taylor thrown to ALA04 broken up by #41 N.Hill-GreenSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.8%
(10:49) #3 N.Frazier rush left for 9 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1714% → 11%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
14.3%
(10:38) Shotgun #0 A.Dear rush left for 5 yards gain to the ALA18 (#5 R.Wilson; #20 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-5
13.2%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush left for 5 yards loss to the ALA13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+5
12.8%
PENALTY ALA False Start (#75 W.Formby) 5 yards from ALA13 to ALA08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 15
OWN 8
+12
11.0%
(08:52) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #14 M.Pritchett caught at ALA09, for 12 yards to the ALA20 (#9 C.Cole; #3 C.Allen), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
10.9%
(08:15) #38 B.Doud punt 45 yards to the UGA35 fair catch by #1 Z.Branch at UGA35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:2192% → 95%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
7.9%
(08:07) #86 D.Bell rush left for 0 yards to the UGA35 (#0 D.Lawson; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
7.0%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UGA43 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+15
6.7%
(06:52) #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #16 L.Humphreys caught at ALA45, for 11 yards to the ALA46 (#18 B.Hubbard), out of bounds PENALTY UGA Personal Foul (#63 D.Glover) 15 yards from UGA43 to UGA28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+13
5.7%
(06:25) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #86 D.Bell caught at UGA41, for 13 yards to the UGA41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
5.5%
(05:46) #92 B.Thorson punt 59 yards to the ALA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:387% → 6%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
7.4%
(05:36) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA24, for 4 yards to the ALA24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
7.4%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA26 (#5 R.Wilson; #90 E.Griffin)Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
6.9%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA26, for 2 yards to the ALA28 (#20 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
6.4%
(03:49) #38 B.Doud punt 37 yards to the UGA35, out of bounds at UGA35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2996% → 96%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
4.5%
(03:45) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UGA44 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
3.9%
(03:08) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UGA48 (#42 Y.Pierre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
3.9%
(02:33) PENALTY UGA False Start (#7 L.Luckie) 5 yards from UGA48 to UGA43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+5
3.8%
(02:12) #86 D.Bell rush left for 5 yards gain to the UGA48 (#16 R.Morgan; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
3.5%
(01:33) #2 J.McCray rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UGA45 (#8 J.Hill)Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+8
3.4%
(00:57) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #32 C.Jones caught at UGA47, for 8 yards to the ALA47 (#9 C.Calhoun), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
3.6%
(00:12) #92 B.Thorson punt 38 yards to the ALA09 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 2:345% → 16%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
4.6%
(00:07) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #81 K.Edwards caught at ALA18, for 21 yards to the ALA30 (#9 C.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
4.6%
(14:56) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA35, for 9 yards to the ALA39 (#9 C.Cole)Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
4.8%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ALA30 (#33 Q.Johnson, #9 C.Cole) PENALTY UGA Personal Foul (#15 D.Jones) 15 yards from ALA30 to ALA45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
4.1%
(13:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #81 K.Edwards caught at ALA48, for 13 yards to the UGA42 (#4 K.Bolden; #20 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
3.9%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at UGA38, for 4 yards to the UGA38 (#3 C.Allen)Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
4.0%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to UGA40Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+15
3.8%
(12:56) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #2 R.Williams thrown to UGA10 PENALTY UGA Pass Interference (#15 D.Jones) 15 yards from UGA38 to UGA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
4.1%
(12:50) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep middle to #17 L.Brooks thrown to UGA00Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
3.9%
(12:44) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #2 R.Williams thrown to UGA00 broken up by #1 E.Robinson IVSimilar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
15.8%
(12:40) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA25, for 23 yards to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:33, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #44 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0890% → 93%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.9%
(12:30) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA29, for 7 yards to the UGA32 (#31 K.Keeley)Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
8.9%
(11:47) #14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #4 O.Delp caught at UGA35, for 5 yards to the UGA37 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
8.2%
(11:13) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UGA36 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
7.9%
(10:34) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UGA43 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
7.2%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 0 yards to the UGA43 (#4 Q.Russaw)Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 4
OWN 43
-4
7.4%
(09:13) #92 B.Thorson punt 49 yards to the ALA08 muffed by #7 C.Adams at ALA08 recovered by ALA #7 C.Adams at ALA04, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:518% → 7%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
8.4%
(09:04) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #81 K.Edwards thrown to ALA06 QB hurried by #94 X.McLeodSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+8
7.5%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA09, for 8 yards to the ALA12 (#4 K.Bolden)Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
7.4%
(08:17) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #81 K.Edwards thrown to ALA15 broken up by #3 C.AllenSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
7.4%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA17, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:1394% → 99%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
6.1%
(08:09) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ALA13 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
5.9%
(07:31) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA13 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
1.4%
(06:55) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short left to #1 Z.Branch caught at ALA16, for 13 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 3:162% → 1%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.5%
(06:48) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA35, for 16 yards to the ALA41 (#5 R.Wilson; #4 K.Bolden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
1.5%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA49, for 8 yards to the ALA49 (#15 D.Jones)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
1.6%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #5 G.Bernard thrown to UGA40 broken up by #6 D.EveretteSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
1.5%
(05:53) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA50 (#3 C.Allen)Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 1
50
+8
1.5%
(05:20) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #81 K.Edwards caught at ALA48, for 8 yards to the UGA42 (#1 E.Robinson IV; #3 C.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
1.3%
(04:58) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Williams thrown to UGA32 broken up by #4 K.BoldenSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
1.3%
(04:53) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UGA47 (#10 Z.Walker)Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+30
1.2%
(04:09) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA44, for 30 yards to the UGA17 lateral to #4 D.Hill for 27 yards gain to the UGA17 (#6 D.Everette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
1.4%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to UGA00Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
1.3%
(03:39) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Dear thrown to UGA22Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
1.2%
(03:34) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Williams thrown to UGA08Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 10
OPP 17
0
1.1%
(03:30) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to UGA00 QB hurried by #19 J.Williams and #91 J.Greene, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24END OF HALF
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:4099% → 100%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
0.8%
(03:18) #3 N.Frazier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UGA21 (#96 T.Keenan III)Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-6
0.8%
(02:34) #14 G.Stockton sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UGA15 (#31 K.Keeley, #23 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+19
0.8%
(02:28) #33 C.Bowens rush middle for 19 yards gain to the UGA34 (#16 R.Morgan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
0.4%
(01:55) Kneel down by #14 G.Stockton at UGA33 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
0.4%
(01:14) Kneel down by #14 G.Stockton at UGA33 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-1
0.4%
(00:33) Kneel down by #14 G.Stockton at UGA32 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:33
(12:40) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at UGA25, for 23 yards to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:33, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #44 A.Rozier)
+11.9
TD · Q3 10:47
(10:49) #3 N.Frazier rush left for 9 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)
-11.4
TD · Q2 8:43
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #86 D.Bell caught at ALA00, for 5 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:43 #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com