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Ball State 24 at Miami (OH) 45

M-OH
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:12: (08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:12 #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton) — BALL win probability +1.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:21: (00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 12 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell) — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:09: (10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at BSU18, for 55 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell) — M-OH win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:14: (00:14) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 00:14 — M-OH win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:34: (07:37) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush left for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:34 #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell) — M-OH win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30BALL 4th & 15 at M-OH 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:28BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 25, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17BALL 4th & 27 at BALL 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:26BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:37M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:34BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14M-OH 4th & 5 at BALL 15, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:39BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:55BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:57M-OH 4th & 13 at BALL 34, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:39M-OH 4th & 7 at BALL 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:07M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:21M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:09M-OH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:34M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:11M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:5488% → 87%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
87.5%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA23 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
87.3%
(14:11) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA30 broken up by #2 M.Gravely Jr.Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+12
87.2%
(14:11) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA34, for 12 yards to the MIA35 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.; #4 E.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.1%
(13:37) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Perry thrown to MIA40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
87.1%
(13:35) Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA36 (#10 J.Harmon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
86.9%
(13:05) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to BSU30Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
86.9%
(13:00) #34 P.Stainton punt 44 yards to the BSU20 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4813% → 13%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.9%
(12:53) PENALTY BSU False Start (#66 C.Hood) 5 yards from BSU20 to BSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
86.8%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Magwood rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU19 (#23 O.McWood)Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
86.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to BSU25Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
86.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short middle to #3 E.Weatherly thrown to BSU30 broken up by #8 K.BeasleySimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+6
86.8%
(12:16) #43 A.Saul punt 39 yards to the MIA42 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 6 yards to the MIA48 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:4587% → 87%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
86.8%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #4 D.Colzie caught at BSU47, for 5 yards to the BSU47, out of bounds at BSU47Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
86.8%
(11:34) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 7 yards gain to the BSU40 (#22 J.Beebe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
86.6%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU32 (#0 A.Chea)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
86.6%
(10:52) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU31 (#0 A.Chea; #56 A.Glenn)Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
86.5%
(10:15) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU27 (#4 E.McClain; #6 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
86.4%
(09:33) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at BSU23, for 4 yards to the BSU23 (#10 J.Harmon)Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
87.3%
(09:07) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #18 B.Isom caught at BSU00, for 23 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:07, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4413% → 15%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
86.7%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 56 yards gain to the MIA09 (#1 E.Blakey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Face Mask (#1 E.Blakey) 5 yards from MIA09 to MIA04, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.3%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIA02 (#23 O.McWood)Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.0%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:12 #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:2486% → 87%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+44
85.5%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep right to #0 K.Reynolds caught at BSU40, for 44 yards to the BSU25 (#1 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
85.8%
(07:19) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #4 D.Colzie caught at BSU09, for 15 yards to the BSU10 (#1 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.7%
(06:37) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Perry thrown to BSU00 broken up by #16 M.McCargoSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.7%
(06:33) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to BSU03Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
87.0%
(06:29) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #18 B.Isom caught at BSU00, for 10 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:26, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3414% → 15%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+47
86.4%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete deep left to #88 D.Hamilton caught at MIA44, for 47 yards to the MIA32 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
85.6%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 9 yards gain to the MIA23 (#20 A.Trick)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
85.5%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA21 (#32 J.Schott; #20 A.Trick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
85.3%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIA22 (#52 N.Washington) PENALTY BSU Holding (#70 T.Cook) 10 yards from MIA21 to MIA31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+3
85.5%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIA28 (#3 M.McCain; #20 A.Trick)Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+2
85.4%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA26 (#1 E.Blakey; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 15
OPP 26
0
85.9%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #3 E.Weatherly thrown to MIA00Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
85.1%
(02:33) #40 D.Pippin field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 02:30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4885% → 88%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
84.8%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush middle for 18 yards gain to the BSU45 (#6 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
85.1%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush left for 27 yards gain to the BSU18 (#16 M.McCargo), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
85.2%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 6 yards gain to the BSU12 (#6 C.Johnson; #5 R.Pearson)Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
87.5%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 12 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:4613% → 13%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
86.9%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU29 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
86.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #5 Q.Magwood caught at BSU35, for 7 yards to the BSU36 (#17 K.Martin)Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+5
86.6%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#47 B.Rice) 5 yards from BSU36 to BSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.6%
(14:24) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush left for 0 yards to the BSU41 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
86.8%
(13:48) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short right to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to BSU45 broken up by #33 J.Kuwatch QB hurried by #23 O.McWoodSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep right to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to MIA35 broken up by #17 K.MartinSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
87.4%
(13:36) #43 A.Saul punt 42 yards to the MIA17 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 0 yards to the MIA17 (#4 E.McClain)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4988% → 87%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
87.5%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to MIA22 broken up by #5 R.PearsonSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
87.4%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to MIA22 QB hurried by #9 M.WingSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
87.2%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #8 K.Perry caught at MIA25, for 8 yards to the MIA25 (#5 R.Pearson)Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
87.0%
(12:40) #34 P.Stainton punt 38 yards to the BSU37, out of bounds at BSU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 2:1113% → 12%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
86.8%
(12:35) Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU38 (#23 O.McWood; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
86.7%
(11:48) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BSU37 (#23 O.McWood, #52 N.Washington)Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-17
87.3%
(11:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 17 yards to the BSU20 (#32 J.Schott)Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 27
OWN 20
0
87.7%
(10:21) #43 A.Saul punt 25 yards to the BSU45, out of bounds at BSU45 PENALTY MIA Holding (#24 M.Yharbrough) 10 yards from BSU45 to MIA45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
91.9%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at BSU18, for 55 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:339% → 9%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.0%
(10:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #88 D.Hamilton caught at BSU30, for 6 yards to the BSU31 (#6 A.Walker Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
90.8%
(09:34) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU33 (#20 A.Trick)Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
90.9%
(08:52) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #5 Q.Magwood caught at BSU38, for 6 yards to the BSU39 (#1 E.Blakey; #11 B.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.6%
(08:15) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU43 (#23 O.McWood)Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
90.4%
(07:31) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU45 (#23 O.McWood; #6 A.Walker Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
90.4%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#77 A.Dolan) 5 yards from BSU45 to BSU40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
91.0%
(06:36) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to BSU50Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
91.2%
(06:33) #43 A.Saul punt 42 yards to the MIA18 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4592% → 92%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
91.9%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at MIA23, for 5 yards to the MIA23, out of bounds at MIA23Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
92.0%
(05:54) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to MIA35 QB hurried by #22 J.BeebeSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
91.8%
(05:50) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to MIA27Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
91.5%
(05:44) #34 P.Stainton punt 48 yards to the BSU29 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BSU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:009% → 8%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
91.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BSU28 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+4
91.4%
(04:57) Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU32 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-11
91.3%
(04:23) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush left for 11 yards loss to the BSU21 fumbled by #1 K.Kelly at BSU29 recovered by BSU #22 J.Bonds at BSU21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
91.7%
(03:39) #43 A.Saul punt 35 yards to the MIA44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FG
16 plays · 41 yds · 3:1993% → 96%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
92.6%
(03:33) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 7 yards gain (2) to the BSU49 (#16 M.McCargo; #10 J.Harmon) PENALTY MIA Holding (#51 E.Smith) 10 yards from MIA46 to MIA36Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 18
OWN 36
0
92.4%
(03:17) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA36 (#9 M.Wing) PENALTY BSU Holding (#5 R.Pearson) 10 yards from MIA36 to MIA46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
92.6%
(02:51) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 8 yards gain to the BSU46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-3
92.8%
(02:10) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 3 yards loss to the BSU49 fumbled by #6 J.Brunson at BSU47 forced by #0 A.Chea recovered by MIA #13 T.Gotkowski at BSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
92.6%
(02:00) PENALTY BSU Offside (#47 D.Hughes) 5 yards from BSU49 to BSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
92.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #10 L.Billups-Williams rush right for 15 yards gain to the BSU29 (#10 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
93.0%
(01:31) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BSU36 (#44 N.Voorhis), fumble by #13 T.Gotkowski recovered by MIA #13 T.Gotkowski at BSU36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+5
93.0%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#70 J.Schorsch) 5 yards from BSU36 to BSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 22
OPP 41
0
93.0%
(00:52) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to BSU24Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 22
OPP 41
+11
92.8%
(00:44) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush left for 11 yards gain to the BSU30 (#16 M.McCargo; #21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+10
92.5%
(00:39) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by #47 D.Hughes (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 00:34, out of bounds at BSU30 PENALTY BSU Holding (#0 A.Chea) 10 yards from BSU30 to BSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
93.0%
(00:34) Shotgun #30 J.Ringer rush left for 5 yards gain to the BSU15 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
93.0%
(00:18) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Perry thrown to BSU10 QB hurried by #9 M.WingSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
92.7%
(00:15) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to BSU00Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
96.3%
(00:14) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 00:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
95.3%
(00:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BSU38 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:095% → 4%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BSU19 (#20 A.Trick)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
95.7%
(14:14) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU22 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
95.8%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#70 T.Cook) 5 yards from BSU22 to BSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
95.9%
(13:32) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU22 (#20 A.Trick; #32 J.Schott)Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.0%
(12:45) #43 A.Saul punt 38 yards to the MIA40 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:5997% → 100%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.6%
(12:40) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MIA47 (#16 M.McCargo; #44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
96.8%
(11:58) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU49 (#4 E.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.8%
(11:14) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush left for 1 yard loss to the BSU50 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 11
50
+12
96.9%
(10:26) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at BSU43, for 12 yards to the BSU38 (#16 M.McCargo; #2 M.Gravely Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
97.1%
(09:40) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep right to #84 C.Weaver caught at BSU10, for 33 yards to the BSU05 (#1 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.1%
(08:57) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 2 yards gain to the BSU03 (#47 D.Hughes; #10 J.Harmon)Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.5%
(08:18) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU01 (#10 J.Harmon; #93 S.Hudson)Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
(07:37) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush left for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:34 #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:261% → 0%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
(07:34) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #14 E.Durham caught at BSU32, for 8 yards to the BSU33 (#21 C.Toney)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.5%
(06:57) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #14 E.Durham caught at BSU40, for 7 yards to the BSU40 (#21 C.Toney), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.5%
(06:32) Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush left for 0 yards to the BSU40 (#21 C.Toney)Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.5%
(05:54) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 1 yard loss to the BSU39 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #6 A.Walker Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
99.7%
(05:06) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete deep left to #5 Q.Magwood thrown to MIA30Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.7%
(05:00) #43 A.Saul punt 38 yards to the MIA23 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:51100% → 100%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
(04:54) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA23 (#49 J.Thomas; #14 T.Adewoyin)Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.7%
(04:06) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush right for 8 yards gain to the MIA31 (#14 T.Adewoyin)Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+9
99.7%
(03:25) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIA40 (#6 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.7%
(02:38) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA47 (#39 Z.Simpson; #22 J.Beebe)Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+10
99.7%
(01:50) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BSU43 (#1 J.Lewis; #14 T.Adewoyin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
99.8%
(01:03) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BSU31 (#4 E.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
(00:17) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU30 (#6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+6
99.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush left for 6 yards gain to the BSU24 (#1 J.Lewis), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+10
99.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU21 (#6 C.Johnson; #14 T.Adewoyin) PENALTY MIA Holding (#51 E.Smith) 10 yards from BSU24 to BSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
99.8%
(13:44) Shotgun #10 L.Billups-Williams rush right for 0 yards to the BSU34 (#6 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+8
99.9%
(13:03) Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU26, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:560% → 1%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
(12:48) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #3 E.Weatherly caught at BSU23, for 0 yards to the BSU26 (#97 W.Goodvine II; #11 B.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
99.9%
(12:18) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #85 K.Anthony caught at BSU36, for 16 yards to the BSU42 (#28 L.Colombi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
98.8%
(11:40) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BSU49 fumbled by #1 K.Kelly at BSU49 forced by #11 B.Uihlein recovered by BSU #1 K.Kelly at BSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
98.8%
(11:13) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA49 (#35 T.Dikos; #47 B.Rice)Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
98.9%
(10:49) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA48 (#32 J.Schott; #43 G.Lyons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
98.9%
(10:31) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #3 E.Weatherly caught at MIA29, for 19 yards to the MIA29 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
98.7%
(10:05) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #88 D.Hamilton caught at MIA20, for 14 yards to the MIA15 (#35 T.Dikos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
98.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short right to #88 D.Hamilton caught at MIA10, for 5 yards to the MIA10 (#21 C.Toney)Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
98.7%
(09:21) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA06 (#6 A.Walker Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
98.8%
(09:01) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA04 (#35 T.Dikos; #11 B.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.7%
(08:26) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to MIA00Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.7%
(08:24) Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA02 (#35 T.Dikos; #13 J.Agee)Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
(07:48) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #9 Q.Ashley caught at MIA03, for 2 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:44 #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:56100% → 100%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA30 (#21 J.Stemler)Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.7%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MIA41 (#12 D.Shepherd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.7%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA49 (#21 J.Stemler; #12 D.Shepherd)Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
99.8%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU42 (#14 T.Adewoyin; #93 S.Hudson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.8%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BSU43 (#44 N.Voorhis)Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU34 (#16 M.McCargo)Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#44 G.Leeper) 5 yards from BSU34 to BSU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
99.8%
(02:48) Shotgun #21 T.Glass rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU39 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
99.8%
(02:44) #34 P.Stainton punt 25 yards to the BSU14 fair catch by #1 J.Lewis at BSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:161% → 0%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.5%
(02:36) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #5 Q.Magwood caught at BSU19, for 5 yards to the BSU19 (#21 C.Toney)Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
100.0%
(02:19) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 19 yards to the BSU00 (#50 J.Fuller), fumble by #1 K.Kelly recovered by MIA #13 J.Agee at BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:11 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:440% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
(02:09) Shotgun #9 Q.Ashley rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU29 fumbled by #9 Q.Ashley at BSU29 forced by #16 C.McKinney recovered by BSU #9 Q.Ashley at BSU29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #24 J.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU32 (#16 C.McKinney)Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
(01:41) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU36 (#28 L.Colombi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
(01:37) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass incomplete short left to #88 D.Hamilton thrown to MIA45Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
100.0%
(01:33) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly rush middle for 29 yards gain to the MIA35 fumbled by #1 K.Kelly at MIA35 forced by #13 J.Agee, out of bounds at MIA35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.4%
(01:21) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #3 E.Weatherly caught at MIA19, for 35 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:16, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.8%
(01:14) Kneel down by #12 H.Hesson at BSU46 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
99.8%
(00:32) Kneel down by #12 H.Hesson at BSU47 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:09
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at BSU18, for 55 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)
+4.2
FG · Q2 0:14
(00:14) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 00:14
+3.6
TD · Q1 0:21
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 12 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com