Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 17 at Miami (OH) 26

M-OH
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Yager Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:14 · (07:18) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mia45 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−8.8Garbage-time factor−2.6Pregame prior+1.9Score differential−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:17: (05:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia00, for 43 yards to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:17, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +14.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:52: (00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Brescia rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd) — WMU win probability +12.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:10: (04:14) #20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd), clock 04:10 — WMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Brian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — M-OH win probability +26.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:40: (04:45) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 18 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:40, 1ST DOWN #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful) — M-OH win probability +44.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:28M-OH 4th & 8 at WMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48WMU 4th & 2 at M-OH 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54M-OH 4th & 5 at WMU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47WMU 4th & 15 at M-OH 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:38M-OH 4th & 2 at WMU 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36M-OH 4th & 3 at WMU 12, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−0.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42WMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−2.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−8.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:49M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:14WMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.6%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:10WMU 4th & 5 at M-OH 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:27M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 47, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:03WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:07WMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 38, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.9 ptsPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−5.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−5.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:56M-OH 4th & 5 at WMU 34, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:51WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 10:31M-OH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    47.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2255% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
55.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia44, for 21 yards to the Mia46 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
55.5%
(14:23) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #8 K.Perry caught at Mia49, for 8 yards to the WMU46 (#5 A.Wofford; #1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+17
55.7%
(13:39) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at WMU29, for 17 yards to the WMU29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.9%
(12:59) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #84 C.Weaver thrown to WMU11Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
55.9%
(12:53) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU25 (#10 S.Saipaia; #18 M.Davis)Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-2
56.0%
(12:08) Shotgun #30 J.Ringer rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WMU27 (#11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
56.1%
(11:32) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 11:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:2444% → 43%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
55.9%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 17 yards gain to the Mia46 (#8 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
55.7%
(10:46) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Mia44 (#1 E.Blakey; #12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
55.8%
(10:12) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 6 yards gain to the Mia38 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
56.0%
(09:36) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 4 yards gain to the Mia34 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.8%
(08:59) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 0 yards to the Mia34 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
55.9%
(08:21) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 0 yards to the Mia34 (#8 K.Beasley)Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
56.3%
(07:37) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #82 B.Brooks caught at Mia29, for 8 yards to the Mia26 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
56.6%
(06:49) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 0 yards to the Mia26 (#1 E.Blakey), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:4457% → 61%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
56.9%
(06:48) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mia30 (#9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+13
57.0%
(06:09) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia35, for 13 yards to the Mia43 (#1 J.Franklin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.7%
(05:33) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to Mia45 broken up by #91 M.TylerSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+20
57.5%
(05:31) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete deep left to #17 B.Isom caught at WMU35, for 20 yards to the WMU37 (#5 A.Wofford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
58.3%
(04:44) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 3 yards loss to the WMU40 (#9 J.Camden; #11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+9
57.9%
(04:01) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at WMU32, for 9 yards to the WMU31 (#8 J.Sims)Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+4
58.5%
(03:09) Shotgun #30 J.Ringer rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU27 (#10 S.Saipaia; #98 D.Frazier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
58.8%
(02:26) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 2 yards gain to the WMU25 (#8 J.Sims), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+14
59.0%
(01:45) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #4 D.Colzie caught at WMU11, for 14 yards to the WMU11 (#5 A.Wofford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
59.2%
(01:03) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU08 (#18 M.Davis; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
59.4%
(00:16) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU06 (#18 M.Davis; #11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
58.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to WMU00Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
61.1%
(14:57) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 14:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:5440% → 38%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
60.0%
(14:47) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 12 yards gain to the WMU34 (#1 E.Blakey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
59.8%
(14:04) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele pass incomplete deep right to #0 T.Williams thrown to Mia40Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
60.1%
(13:58) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 6 yards gain to the WMU40 (#12 C.Hondru; #20 A.Trick), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
59.5%
(13:26) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #84 K.Boone-Nelson caught at WMU45, for 5 yards to the WMU45, out of bounds at WMU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
59.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 22 yards gain to the Mia33 (#8 K.Beasley; #3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-11
58.1%
(12:11) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 11 yards to the Mia44 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 21
OPP 44
+6
60.1%
(11:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia41, for 6 yards to the Mia38 (#12 C.Hondru), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 15
OPP 38
0
60.9%
(10:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #0 T.Williams thrown to Mia36Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
61.8%
(10:55) #25 R.Millmore punt 38 yards to the Mia00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4563% → 66%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
63.0%
(10:47) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at Mia32, for 12 yards to the Mia32 (#8 J.Sims), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. WMU is challenging the ruling on the field - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
63.3%
(10:23) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Mia38 (#1 J.Franklin; #18 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
64.9%
(09:40) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 0 yards to the Mia38 (#98 D.Frazier), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+9
64.4%
(08:57) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia45, for 9 yards to the Mia47 (#9 J.Camden; #1 J.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
66.4%
(08:09) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at WMU49, for 5 yards to the WMU48 (#14 J.Peters)Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
66.8%
(07:29) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Perry thrown to WMU15Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
66.2%
(07:23) Shotgun #30 J.Ringer rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU45 (#10 S.Saipaia; #11 N.Tucker)Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
65.5%
(06:44) #34 P.Stainton punt 38 yards to the WMU07 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 1:1236% → 50%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
63.6%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU12 (#8 K.Beasley)Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
63.6%
(05:57) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #18 A.Chenault thrown to WMU15Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+45
64.6%
(05:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep left to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU47, for 45 yards to the Mia43 (#5 L.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
49.9%
(05:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia00, for 43 yards to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:17, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:3154% → 61%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
54.0%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 46 yards gain to the WMU29 (#3 T.Hallock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
58.1%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep right to #0 K.Reynolds thrown to WMU03Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
58.1%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at WMU24, for 10 yards to the WMU19 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
58.2%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #8 K.Perry caught at WMU20, for 4 yards to the WMU15 (#8 J.Sims), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
58.2%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to WMU06 broken up by #18 M.DavisSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
56.7%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU12 (#91 M.Tyler)Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
60.7%
(02:38) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 02:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:1746% → 58%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
54.0%
(02:21) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia27, for 1 yard to the Mia20 (#1 E.Blakey)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
53.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right thrown to Mia20 QB hurried by #22 B.JobeSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+8
55.0%
(01:54) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 8 yards gain to the Mia12 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
56.3%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 3 yards gain to the Mia09 (#3 M.McCain; #20 A.Trick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
53.5%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Mia04 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
53.6%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mia02 (#1 E.Blakey), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Brescia rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49 #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1447% → 45%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
46.5%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left thrown to WMU50 QB hurried by #11 N.TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
46.3%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to Mia45 QB hurried by #11 N.TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
44.9%
PENALTY Mia False Start (#78 D.Terrill) 5 yards from Mia32 to Mia27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+6
44.8%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Mia33 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5256% → 55%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
43.9%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Leary rush left for 0 yards to the WMU13 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-2
43.9%
(14:21) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 2 yards loss to the WMU11 (#12 C.Hondru; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+4
44.5%
(13:43) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU15 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-2
45.4%
(13:05) #25 R.Millmore punt 55 yards to the Mia30 #10 L.Billups-Williams return for loss of 2 yards to the Mia28 (#16 J.Lyles)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5945% → 43%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
44.8%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Mia34 (#9 J.Camden; #1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
46.2%
(12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete deep right to #84 C.Weaver thrown to WMU45 broken up by #8 J.SimsSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
43.9%
(12:01) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short right to #86 B.Shane thrown to Mia48 broken up by #11 N.TuckerSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
43.1%
(11:55) #34 P.Stainton punt 48 yards to the WMU18 fair catch by #86 B.Bosma at WMU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 7:2558% → 71%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
42.1%
(11:49) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU22, for 5 yards to the WMU23 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
41.6%
(11:14) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 4 yards gain to the WMU27 (#8 K.Beasley; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
41.6%
(10:37) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU29 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
41.1%
(09:58) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU31 (#12 C.Hondru; #20 A.Trick)Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+12
40.7%
(09:22) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #82 B.Brooks caught at WMU43, for 12 yards to the WMU43, out of bounds at WMU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.8%
(08:49) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #18 A.Chenault thrown to Mia40 QB hurried by #12 C.HondruSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
39.2%
(08:44) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Mia48 (#8 K.Beasley; #26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
38.1%
(08:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 0 yards to the Mia48 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
39.7%
(07:18) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mia45 (#3 M.McCain; #33 J.Kuwatch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
37.0%
(06:45) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 5 yards gain to the Mia40 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
36.6%
(06:09) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Mia29 (#12 C.Hondru), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
35.8%
(05:35) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mia25 (#12 C.Hondru; #33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
35.1%
(05:00) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Mia24 (#33 J.Kuwatch; #23 O.McWood)Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
35.2%
(04:17) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #17 M.Dieudonne thrown to Mia21Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
29.1%
(04:14) #20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd), clock 04:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3232% → 31%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.6%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush right for 4 yards gain to the Mia29 (#10 S.Saipaia), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
31.3%
(03:32) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia33, for 11 yards to the Mia40 (#10 S.Saipaia; #5 A.Wofford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.9%
(02:54) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Perry thrown to Mia45Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.6%
(02:50) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 5 yards gain to the Mia45 (#3 T.Hallock), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
32.0%
(02:10) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mia47 (#18 M.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
31.3%
(01:36) #34 P.Stainton punt 53 yards to the WMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1973% → 71%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.5%
(01:28) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 0 yards to the WMU20 (#47 B.Rice; #20 A.Trick)Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.4%
(00:51) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #1 C.Leary caught at WMU24, for 4 yards to the WMU24 (#12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
27.6%
(00:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Buckley thrown to WMU24 broken up by #12 C.HondruSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
28.8%
(00:03) #25 R.Millmore punt 47 yards to the Mia29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:2430% → 59%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
29.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short right to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia36, for 8 yards to the Mia37 (#8 J.Sims)Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
31.7%
(14:35) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Mia40 (#10 S.Saipaia), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
30.4%
(14:08) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 10 yards gain to the Mia50 (#10 S.Saipaia; #3 T.Hallock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
50
+6
30.0%
(13:28) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU44 (#9 J.Camden; #99 R.McGraw)Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
30.6%
(12:49) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU41 (#91 M.Tyler)Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
30.1%
(12:10) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU39 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
29.8%
(11:30) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete deep right to #8 K.Perry caught at WMU05, for 36 yards to the WMU03 (#14 J.Peters), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.2%
(11:14) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU03 (#10 S.Saipaia; #0 M.Al-Garawi)Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.1%
Brian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0462% → 61%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.4%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Mia49 (#8 K.Beasley; #12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
37.8%
(09:48) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mia45 (#33 J.Kuwatch)Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
37.1%
(09:11) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Mia44 (#47 B.Rice; #92 R.Andrews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
36.8%
(08:34) Shotgun #5 D.Miles rush right for 8 yards loss to the WMU48 fumbled by #5 D.Miles at Mia49 recovered by WMU #5 D.Miles at WMU49 (#20 A.Trick)Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 18
OWN 48
0
40.1%
(07:50) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #5 D.Miles thrown to WMU45 QB hurried by #20 A.TrickSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+14
41.4%
(07:47) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 14 yards gain to the Mia38 (#1 E.Blakey), out of bounds. #8 K.Beasley injured on the playSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
38.8%
(07:13) #25 R.Millmore punt 26 yards to the Mia12 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at Mia12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 2:2247% → 91%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
46.9%
(07:07) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to Mia10 QB hurried by #9 J.CamdenSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
46.3%
(07:02) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the Mia12 (#10 S.Saipaia; #9 J.Camden)Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+10
43.9%
(06:18) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 10 yards gain to the Mia22 (#10 S.Saipaia), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
46.8%
(05:48) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #84 C.Weaver caught at Mia30, for 10 yards to the Mia32 (#8 J.Sims), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
45.7%
(05:16) Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete deep right to #8 K.Perry caught at WMU25, for 50 yards to the WMU18 (#14 J.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
90.6%
(04:45) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 18 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:40, 1ST DOWN #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:2616% → 15%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
83.8%
(04:29) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #86 B.Bosma caught at WMU26, for 7 yards to the WMU28 (#1 E.Blakey; #12 C.Hondru)Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
81.8%
(04:06) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #18 A.Chenault thrown to WMU35 QB hurried by #12 C.HondruSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
83.6%
(04:01) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 6 yards gain to the WMU34 (#26 E.Coppess), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.9%
(03:33) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #17 M.Dieudonne thrown to Mia50Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
83.9%
(03:29) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #82 B.Brooks thrown to WMU45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Mia Pass Interference (#24 M.Yharbrough) 10 yards from WMU34 to WMU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
81.1%
(03:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #84 K.Boone-Nelson caught at WMU39, for 5 yards loss to the WMU39 (#8 K.Beasley)Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
85.0%
(02:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 0 yards to the WMU39 (#20 A.Trick), fumble by #12 B.Lowry recovered by Mia #92 R.Andrews at WMU39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5294% → 96%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.5%
(02:54) Shotgun #14 D.Jones rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU39 (#8 J.Sims; #10 S.Saipaia)Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
94.3%
(02:10) Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU39 (#91 M.Tyler; #99 R.McGraw)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
95.2%
(02:07) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush right for 5 yards gain to the WMU34 (#3 T.Hallock), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
95.8%
(02:00) #31 D.Dzioban field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell), clock 01:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:554% → 3%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
96.2%
(01:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WMU13 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+16
96.4%
(01:32) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #0 T.Williams caught at WMU27, for 16 yards to the WMU29 (#8 K.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.2%
(01:22) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU32, for 3 yards to the WMU32 (#17 K.Martin)Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
96.1%
(01:17) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #86 B.Bosma caught at WMU37, for 5 yards to the WMU37 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+9
96.0%
(01:12) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU46, for 9 yards to the WMU46 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.1%
(01:10) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep middle to #82 B.Brooks thrown to Mia20Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
96.1%
(01:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #5 D.Miles thrown to WMU40 QB hurried by #22 B.Jobe and #3 M.McCainSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
96.4%
(01:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #17 M.Dieudonne thrown to Mia35 broken up by #8 K.BeasleySimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+8
96.9%
(00:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #18 A.Chenault caught at Mia46, for 8 yards to the Mia46, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:4397% → 97%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
96.5%
(00:51) Kneel down by #1 D.Finn at Mia44 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-2
96.5%
(00:06) Kneel down by #1 D.Finn at Mia42 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:40
(04:45) Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 18 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:40, 1ST DOWN #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful)
+44.9
TD · Q4 10:31
Brian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+26.9
TD · Q2 5:17
(05:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia00, for 43 yards to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:17, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com